COVID-19 GAUSOVA KRIVA U PROGNOZI EPIDEMIJE-2020-4-23

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Gauss curve, Sigmoid curve

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slide 1:

GAUSOVA KRIVA za prognozu toka epidemije Petar Kocovic - FITI COVID-19

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1. Epidemijska kriva Broj obolelih-broj umrlih-broj izle čenih

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Broj umrlih od COVID-19 u Srbiji na dan 23. aprila 2020 139 Broj obolelih u Srbiji od COVID-19 u Srbiji na dan 23. aprila 2020 7276 1063 Broj preydraveli od COVID-19 u Srbiji na dan 23. aprila 2020

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-2000 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51 53 55 SERBIA-Infected-Recovered-Still Infected Infected Recovered Infected-Recovery-Death Poly. Infected

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- 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 60000 70000 80000 90000 1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52 55 58 61 64 67 70 73 76 79 82 CHINA - Infected-Recovered-Still Infected Infected Recovered Infected-Recovered-Deat

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Kada će biti kraj_

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Histogram

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0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 3/6/2020 3/7/2020 3/8/2020 3/9/2020 3/10/2020 3/11/2020 3/12/2020 3/13/2020 3/14/2020 3/15/2020 3/16/2020 3/17/2020 3/18/2020 3/19/2020 3/20/2020 3/21/2020 3/22/2020 3/23/2020 3/24/2020 3/25/2020 3/26/2020 3/27/2020 3/28/2020 3/29/2020 3/30/2020 3/31/2020 4/1/2020 4/2/2020 4/3/2020 4/4/2020 4/5/2020 4/6/2020 4/7/2020 4/8/2020 4/9/2020 4/10/2020 4/11/2020 4/12/2020 4/13/2020 4/14/2020 4/15/2020 4/16/2020 4/17/2020 4/18/2020 4/19/2020 4/20/2020 4/21/2020 4/22/2020 4/23/2020 SRBIJA - Histogram Inficiranih

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Iz ovih dijagrama dobijamo krivu Gausove rapsodele

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Formula Gausove rasodele

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Carl Friedrich Gauss 1777-1885

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Andrew Cuomo - guverner države Njujork

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0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 3/6/2020 3/16/2020 3/26/2020 4/5/2020 4/15/2020 4/25/2020 5/5/2020 5/15/2020 5/25/2020 Srbija 23. april 2020 Gaus S-kriva oboleli na 1 milion stanovnika Total cases till today 7276/1042 milion Model Cases model total area 8732/1251 milion Accuracy of the Gaussian model 120 Area fraction - Serbia is about 83 into COVID-19 Kada će kraj 24. Maja 2020

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Prethodni dani

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Total cases till today 3660 Model Cases model total area 5958 Accuracy of the Gaussian model 163 Area fraction - Serbia is about 61 into COVID-19 12- april 2020

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Total cases till today 3660 Model Cases model total area 5543 Accuracy of the Gaussian model 153 Area fraction - Serbia is about 65 into COVID-19 13- april 2020

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Total cases till today 4465 Model Cases model total area 16607 Accuracy of the Gaussian model 372 Area fraction - Serbia is about 27 into COVID-19 14- april 2020

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Total cases till today 4873 Model Cases model total area 21424 Accuracy of the Gaussian model 440 Area fraction - Serbia is about 23 into COVID-19 15- april 2020

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Total cases till today 5318 Model Cases model total area 29116 Accuracy of the Gaussian model 547 Area fraction - Serbia is about 18 into COVID-19 16- april 2020

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Total cases till today 5690 Model Cases model total area 18864 Accuracy of the Gaussian model 332 Area fraction - Serbia is about 30 into COVID-19 17- april 2020 Procena kraja: 15. jun 2020

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Total cases till today 5994 Model Cases model total area 12749 Accuracy of the Gaussian model 213 Area fraction - Serbia is about 47 into COVID-19 18- april 2020 Procena kraja: 2. jun 2020

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Total cases till today 6317 Model Cases model total area 11376 Accuracy of the Gaussian model 180 Area fraction - Serbia is about 56 into COVID-19 19- april 2020 Procena kraja: 31. maj 2020

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Total cases till today 6630 Model Cases model total area 10643 Accuracy of the Gaussian model 161 Area fraction - Serbia is about 62 into COVID-19 20- april 2020 Procena kraja: 28. maj 2020

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Total cases till today 6890 Model Cases model total area 9830 Accuracy of the Gaussian model 143 Area fraction - Serbia is about 70 into COVID-19 21- april 2020 Procena kraja: 27. maj 2020

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Total cases till today 7114 Model Cases model total area 9264 Accuracy of the Gaussian model 130 Area fraction - Serbia is about 77 into COVID-19 22- april 2020 Procena kraja: 26. maj 2020

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Total cases till today 7775 Model Cases model total area 8732 Accuracy of the Gaussian model 120 Area fraction - Serbia is about 83 into COVID-19 23- april 2020 Procena kraja: 24. maj 2020

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0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 3/6/2020 3/16/2020 3/26/2020 4/5/2020 4/15/2020 4/25/2020 5/5/2020 5/15/2020 5/25/2020 Srbija 23. april 2020 Gaus S-kriva oboleli na 1 milion stanovnika Total cases till today 7276/1042 milion Model Cases model total area 8732/1251 milion Accuracy of the Gaussian model 120 Area fraction - Serbia is about 83 into COVID-19 Kritične tačke za donošenje odluka do 24. Maja 2020

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Dodatni uslov za dono šenje odluka

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Krive gde su dr žave pro šle 80 Gausove krive Postoji mogu ćnost od vra ćanja epiemije

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Kategorije A-D – Da se otvore uskoro

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Susedi

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Kriva za donošenje odluka 10 100 1000 10000 10 100 1000 10000 Dnevno inficirani Inficirani Srbija - 23. april 2020

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Gauss Curve Normal distribution

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Austria – Gauss Curve April 11 2020 Accuracy – 100

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Slovenia – Gauss Curve April 11 2020 Accuracy – 124

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North Macedonia – Gauss Curve April 11 2020 Accuracy – 209

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Serbia – Gauss Curve April 11 2020 Accuracy – 154

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Zaklju čak Uža kriva -Oboleli intenzivnije obolevaju -- veći broj umrlih -- pitanje medicinskih kapaciteta -- brži oporavak ekonomije Šira kriva -Oboleli sporije obolevaju -- manji broj umrlih -- medicinski kapaciteti OK -- sporiji oporavak ekonomije i moguća kriza

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GAUSOVA KRIVA za prognozu toka epidemije Petar Kocovic - FITI COVID-19

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