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Climate Change on Increasing the Risks of Armed Conflicts in Sudan:

Climate Change on Increasing the Risks of Armed Conflicts in Sudan By Dr. M. Awad & Dr. M.Abdelmanan 1 st International Conference On Climate Change & Biodiversity Challenges and Prospect THE ISLAMIA UNIVERSITY OF BAHAWALPUR, PAKISTAN (MAY 2-4, 2017)


Outline Geography 1 Projections 2 Overview of Darfur 3 Environmental Situation in Darfur 4 Environmental Causes of Conflict 5 Consequences 6


Geography Darfur location Satellite image Location of Sudan in the region

Drought and desertification in Sahel:

Drought and desertification in Sahel The Sahel is a band of semi-arid land to the south of the Sahara desert. This region includes the region of Darfur, in Sudan. The rainfall in the region is variable and falls mainly during July and August. Rainfall levels used to be higher but now drought is occurring. In wetter times, the Sahel became more populated. Trees were cut down for fuel and cattle were introduced and the vegetation became overgrazed and depleted. Now lower levels of rainfall are being experienced and desertification is taking hold. Lies between the desert and fertile grassland to the south

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Vulnerability, impacts and adaptation:

Vulnerability, impacts and adaptation . Water resources Public health Nat. Res.& biodiversity Food Security Potential conflict Desertification Declines in Agric prod. Water born disease Land Loss of biodiversity Need for regional coordination, health infrastructure, , other pre-cautions , mitigation and adaption

Overview of Darfur:

Overview of Darfur The population of Darfur is representative of the population of Sudan with Black-Africans, and Arabs as well as the smaller minority groups What is Darfur? Darfur is the western region of Sudan  Who lives in Darfur? Darfur is home to racially mixed tribes of settled peasants, who identify as African, and nomadic herders, who identify as Arab. The majority of people in both groups are Muslim. What is happening in Darfur?   In February 2003, the non-Arab ethnic groups of Darfur launched an uprising against the Khartoum government. The government responded by enlisting the help of Arab militia in Darfur called the Janjaweed . Result: Dead: ∼ 400,000 people Refugees: 2.5 – 2.7 million More than 1000s villages destroyed

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Environment Situation in Darfur  

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Average annual rainfall and mean of NDVI in Sudan (1982-993) Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI):- Very low values of NDVI (0.1 and below) correspond to barren areas of rock or sand Moderate values represent shrub and grassland (0.2 to 0.3) High values indicate temperate and tropical rainforests (0.6 to 0.8).

Annual average temperature :

Annual average temperature Impacts Decline in water supplies More human health risks Changing growing seasons More pests in forests & crops Native plant & animal population decline Wetlands decline

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Desertification :

Desertification Desertification is the process by which productive land becomes dry and useless. Desertification is a looming crisis in Africa where almost 70 percent of the continent is arid or semi-arid land. There is no one reason we can point to as the cause of desertification, but rather a combination of climate and our own mistakes, ignorance and actions. Is the process by which land becomes desert

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Low quality degraded rangeland in Northern Darfur. To survive in these regions, pastoralists must travel across agricultural areas to find water and fodder for their herds, which commonly leads to conflict Brick making puts pressure on the environment

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Drought Drought is a period below average rainfall. Drought is period of unexpectedly low rainfall. Therefore, what is considered to be a drought may vary widely throughout the world. Dry and arid land in north Darfur

Precipitation :

Precipitation Average rainfall in the whole country Average rainfall in north Darfur

Effect of climate change on Agriculture :

Effect of climate change on Agriculture It is estimated 1.9 million people will be affected by reduced agricultural and livestock production Desertification is encroaching on valuable agricultural land -- affecting the livelihoods of many Sudanese farmers Natural catchments of rain water I Darfur Farmers have been expanding the land that they use for agriculture, overtaking the grazing fields.

Effect of climate change on Agriculture (Cultivated and Harvested area) :

Effect of climate change on Agriculture ( Cultivated and Harvested area ) Year Loss(%) 1970 25.0 1971 49.0 1972 46.0 1973 46.0 1974 25.0 1975 46.0 1976 40.0 1977 40.0 1978 40.0 1979 43.0 1980 40.0 1981 40.0 1982 50.0 1983 69.0 1984 69.0 1985 40.0 1986 38.3 1987 40.0 1988 25.0 1989 43.0 1990 43.1 1991 48.7 1992 33.3 1993 68.5 1994 25.0 1995 49.0 1996 66.2 1997 48.5 1998 15.4 1999 46.6 2000 52.9 2001 44.5 Cultivated and harvested area of millet in north Darfur State

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Year Yield 1970 1.388095 1971 1.216667 1972 0.330952 1973 0.635714 1974 0.861905 1975 0.77381 1976 0.921429 1977 0.221429 1978 0.992857 1979 0.721429 1980 1.059524 1981 0.914286 1982 0.12381 1983 0.166667 1984 0.109524 1985 0.540476 1986 0.407143 1987 0.314286 1988 0.511905 1989 0.22619 1990 0.097619 1991 0.209524 1992 0.511905 1993 0.157143 1994 0.238095 1995 0.035714 1996 0.104762 1997 0.171429 1998 0.321429 1999 0.195238 2000 0.188095 2001 0.142857 Yield of millet (t/ha) in north Darfur State Effect of climate change on Agriculture ( Yield of millet as main crop; t/ha )

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Population The maximum population size that can be sustained by an environment (Carrying capacity)


Overpopulation Overpopulation occurs when there are more people living in an area than there are resources to support them. Resources could include clean water, food, shelter, land, education, medicine, etc. Population growth in Darfur region 1956-2003

Effects of overpopulation:

Effects of overpopulation Socio-economic Soil degradation Cash crops on valuable land Increasing population Farmers more sedentary Refugees not self reliant Environmental Change in rainfall patterns Conflict over water

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Summary of deforestation rates in Darfur from 1973 to 2006:

Summary of deforestation rates in Darfur from 1973 to 2006 Causes: Tmbisquo Closed forest and wooded grassland replaced by burnt areas and rain-fed agriculture. (Rate: 1.04%) total loss : 29.1% Jebel Marra Closed forest changing to open forest land and burnt areas . (Rate: 1.33%) total loss: 29.4% Umchelluta Closed forest replaced by burnt areas, pasture and rain-fed agriculture . . (Rate: 1.20%) total loss: 32.4% Rapid and consistent deforestation approximately one-third complete by 2006. Causes: Low rain fall and prolonged drought spells, human factors, forest tree cutting for agriculture, mono-cropping and lack of crop rotation

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The trees have been cut for fuelwood and to provide the animals with fodder. Fighting over grazing land has been ongoing in Darfur since 1920 at least The photo reflects part of Darfur's environmental tragedy: the destruction of forest cover for firewood Brick Kilns at Refugees’ Camp Demand for fuelwood increases

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Environmental Causes of Conflict

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The rainfall down by up to 30% over 50 years Drop of up to 70% in crop yields Increase of desertification over 1.2 Km towards south every year Tensions between farmers and herders over disappearing pasture and evaporating water holes Igniting the conflict among different ethnic groups

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NDVI in Sudan (Aug.2015)

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Map showing Darfur-related conflict zones and campsites for refugees and internally displaced peoples

Other related factors:

Other related factors

Weak government institutions:

Weak government institutions Lack of capacity for environmental governance Breakdown of the native administration Weak institutions Corruption

Disintegration of Social Capital:

Disintegration of Social Capital With the loss of trust and fear, the social capital has disintegrated. In the past, this traditional mechanism was communally sponsored based on third party mediation. The mediators, called ajaweed , were tribal elders trained in customary practices and laws. Their role was to pressure groups into reaching a settlement based on the Ajaweed’s recommendations.

Resource Curse:

Resource Curse Contribution of resource wealth to the root causes of the conflict in Darfur Oil and gold mining Reasons of conflict Impact on the environment No disclosure of contracts Length Allocation of the revenues Lack of transparency Tension among different stakeholders

Land Tenure Conflicts:

Land Tenure Conflicts Demand for arable land Desertification Failure on defining property rights Increasing the tension between farmers and herders The demand cannot be handled without conflict

Demographic Changes:

Demographic Changes The influx of pastoral migrants from the Northern Darfur into the central part of the region exacerbated tensions between the current occupants and the newcomers by increasing the number of people competing for land, water, and grazing rights. “Environmental scarcity is more likely to produce migrants than refugees, because it usually develops gradually”

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Victims :

Victims Civil war and famine led to internal migration Since 2003 Darfur has become a human rights crisis region Dead: ∼ 400,000 people Refugees: 2.5 – 2.7 million More than 1000s villages destroyed

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United Nations Politicization of Darfur issue

Imperiled villages in the Darfur region:

Imperiled villages in the Darfur region This animated image shows the Sudanese town of Donkey Dereis , south of Darfur, as it looked in QuickBird satellite imagery from late 2004, then flips to a 2006 view. The "before" view shows well-defined enclosures and huts. The "after" view shows the destroyed village.

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Damage assessment based on time series of satellite images recorded on October 16, 2014; February 6,17 2015; March 15, 2015; and April 22, 2015 ( Nurya -Central Drafur ) Damage assessment based on time series of satellite images recorded on October 16, 2014; February 6,17 2015; March 15, 2015; and April 22, 2015 ( Bardani and Korma area, Central Drafur )

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The orange pins indicate the location of a village which has been destroyed. Each villages was home to several hundred to several thousand people before being destroyed.

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Satellite images of Darfur, Sudan, from 2003 (left) and 2007 show a steady increase in vegetation coverage in former agrarian and livestock grazing areas. This suggests a significant reduction in the number of livestock, which correlates with systematic violence in the region during the same period.

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Immediate Decreases in Vegetation in Darfur, 2003-2007 Agriculture generally increases vegetation vigor, the clear annual decreases in vigor observed in West and South Darfur from 2003-04 through 2005-06, corroborate the reduction of agriculture in a predominantly agricultural region.

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Source of potential instability for region Potential damage of market relations with other countries. (Sudan has solid Exports) Agricultural sector is strongly hit Holdback foreign investment Tourism sector is affected Oil sources are threatened Brain drain . over 2  million Sudanese live abroad. How The Armed Conflict Affected Natural Resources, Economy and Society in Sudan?


Summary Environmental issues have been and continue to be contributing causes of conflict.

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South North   Main  cause of conflict a conflict of insufficient rainfall

Thank you for your attention! [email protected] :

Thank you for your attention! [email protected]