Using EWS to Promote On-Time Graduation – 10-17-13

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Using EWS to Promote On-Time Graduation – 10-17-13

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2013-2014 Webinar Series for the Superintendent’s Dropout Challenge (audio length, 57 minutes, 42 slides) Webinar #1 Using Longitudinal Dropout Data:

2013-2014 Webinar Series for the Superintendent’s Dropout Challenge (audio length, 57 minutes, 42 slides) Webinar #1 Using Longitudinal Dropout Data Michigan Department of Education Superintendent's Dropout Challenge (SDC) Committee, October 17 , 2013 (3-4pm)

2013-2014 Webinar Series for the Superintendent’s Dropout Challenge in Michigan Webinar #1 Using Longitudinal Dropout Data Links to Presentation Files Jonathan Doll, MDE Intro (Link here) Amy Szymanski and Mindee O’Cummings, AIR Presentation (Link here):

2013-2014 Webinar Series for the Superintendent’s Dropout Challenge in Michigan Webinar #1 Using Longitudinal Dropout Data Links to Presentation Files Jonathan Doll, MDE Intro ( Link here ) Amy Szymanski and Mindee O’Cummings, AIR Presentation ( Link here ) Michigan Department of Education Superintendent's Dropout Challenge (SDC) Committee, October 17, 2013 (3-4pm)

Using Longitudinal Dropout Data:

Michigan Department of Education Superintendent's Dropout Challenge (SDC) Committee, October 17, 2013 Using Longitudinal Dropout Data Hosts and Presenters Jonathan Doll , Member of the SDC Committee Leisa Gallagher, Coordinator of the SDC Bersheril Bailey, AIR Mindee O’Cummings, AIR Amy Szymanski, AIR

We have a few questions before we begin.:

We have a few questions before we begin.

Schedule of 2013-2014 Webinars:

Schedule of 2013-2014 Webinars # Date Topics 1 Oct. 17, 3-4pm Webinar 1 : Using Longitudinal Dropout Data http :// remc.adobeconnect.com/SDC-webinar1 2 Nov. 20 , 3-4pm Webinar 2: Adult Advocacy to Prevent Dropout   http :// remc.adobeconnect.com/SDC-webinar2 3 Jan. 21, 3-4pm Webinar 3: Academic Supports and Enhancements to Prevent Dropout http :// remc.adobeconnect.com/SDC-webinar3 4 March 11, 3-4pm Webinar 4: Using Rigor and Relevance in Preventing Dropout http:// remc.adobeconnect.com/SDC-webinar4 5 May 13, 3-4:30pm Webinar 5: Understanding Behavioral & Social Skills in Preventing Dropout http:// remc.adobeconnect.com/SDC-webinar5 6 June 17, 3-4:30pm Webinar 6: Using Personalized Learning in Preventing Dropout http :// remc.adobeconnect.com/SDC-webinar6

Background Info: The Superintendent’s Dropout Challenge:

Background Info: The Superintendent’s Dropout Challenge Started in 2009 Theory of Action stems from 6 IES Practice Guide Recommendations Aimed at 10-15 students, can reach 15,000-23,000 annually Research in 2010-11 found positive results, reduced dropout rates ( 303 participating high schools )

IES Dropout Prevention Practice Guide Recommendations:

IES Dropout Prevention Practice Guide Recommendations 6 Key Findings • Use school data • Assign adult advocates • Academic support • Address behavior • Personalize learning • Enhance rigor/relevance

Using an Early Warning System to Promote On-time Graduation:

Using an Early Warning System to Promote On-time Graduation Mindee O’Cummings & Amy Szymanski October 2013

Today’s Topics:

Today’s Topics Background Research on Early Warning Systems Implementing an Early Warning System Opportunity for Michigan High Schools! Each topic presented will be followed by time for discussion. 9

PowerPoint Presentation:

Background Research on Early Warning Systems 10

Early Warning Systems:

Early Warning Systems Early warning systems (EWS) rely on readily available data housed at the school to: Predict which students are at-risk for dropping out of high school Target resources to support off-track students while they are still in school, before they drop out Examine patterns and identify school climate issues 11

Key EWS Indicators:

Key EWS Indicators Engagement Attendance/absenteeism Course Performance Course grades Number of credits earned GPA Behavior Suspensions Referrals 12 Research from several U.S. school districts provides a strong foundation for defining early warning signs that students might drop out, but local adaptation is key.

“High-Yield” Academic Indicators: Attendance:

“High-Yield” Academic Indicators: Attendance

“High-Yield” Academic Indicators: Course Failures :

“High-Yield” Academic Indicators: Course Failures

“High-Yield” Academic Indicators: GPA :

“High-Yield” Academic Indicators: GPA

Chicago’s “On-track” High School Indicator:

Chicago’s “On-track” High School Indicator 16 www.betterhighschools.org Number of Semester Core Course Failures # of Credits Accumulated Freshman Year Less than 5 5 or more 2 or more courses Off-track Off-track 0 or 1 courses Off-track On-track Students are “on-track” if they: have not failed more than one semester long core course, AND have accumulated enough credits for promotion to the 10th grade .

Middle Grades Indicators of Risk :

Middle Grades Indicators of Risk Students who demonstrated at least one flag had a less than 1 in 4 likelihood of 4/5 year graduation Engagement 80% or lower attendance rate Course Performance Failing math or English Behavior Unsatisfactory behavior grade 17

EWS Indictors: Middle Grades and High School Thresholds:

EWS Indictors: Middle Grades and High School Thresholds 18 Indicators Thresholds Middle Grades High School Incoming Indicator Previous year EWS Tool exit indicator or locally validated indicators of risk Attendance Missed 20% or more of instructional time Missed 10% or more of instructional time Course Performance Failure in an English language arts or mathematics course Failure in one or more courses Earned 2.0 or lower GPA (on a 4-point scale) Behavior Locally validated thresholds End of year indicator EWS exit indicator or l ocally validated indicators of risk

PowerPoint Presentation:

Implementing an Early Warning System 19

Early Warning System :

Early Warning System Early warning systems (EWS) rely on readily available data housed at the school to: Predict which students are at-risk for dropping out of high school Target resources to support off-track students while they are still in school, before they drop out Examine patterns of data and identify school climate issues 20

Early Warning Intervention and Monitoring System (EWIMS) Process :

Early Warning Intervention and Monitoring System ( EWIMS) Process The process is based on research about data-driven decision-making. The steps guide users to make informed decisions about how to support at-risk students and how to continue to monitor their progress over time. 21

Step One: Establish Roles and Responsibilities:

Step One: Establish Roles and Responsibilities EWIMS teams need to include individuals who have: Authority to make decisions Knowledge of diverse students Expertise to manage and analyze data EWIMS teams are required to: Meet regularly Communicate EWS risk or dropout prevention issues to groups/individuals outside of the team Solicit feedback from stakeholders (leaders, staff, students, parents) Monitor students’ progress 22

Step Two: Use the EWS Tool:

Step Two: Use the EWS Tool Important EWS tool (middle grades and high school) considerations: Data must be regularly entered throughout the school year At least one individual should be responsible for ensuring the EWS tool is loaded with the latest data EWIMS Team members must be trained to understand the use of the indicators within the tool Reports must be used and accessible in order to make decisions about students’ needs Student progress in interventions must be monitored

Step Three: Review EWS Data:

Step Three: Review EWS Data EWS indicators are reviewed and monitored to identify students at risk for dropping out and to understand patterns in student engagement and academic performance Questions to ask about EWS data: Student-level patterns : What do your data tell you about individual students who are at-risk? School-level patterns : What do your data tell you about how the school is doing? Are students who were flagged from the beginning remaining “off-track” through the year? Are students who were flagged at one reporting period back “on-track” at the next?

EXAMPLE School Level Report:

EXAMPLE School Level Report 25

EXAMPLE Student Level Report:

EXAMPLE Student Level Report 26

Step Four: Interpret EWS Data:

Step Four: Interpret EWS Data The EWIMS team must look BEYOND the indicators and Indicators are just observable symptoms, not root causes Examine additional data from a variety of sources beyond the EWS indicators ( e.g., talking to classroom teachers, parents, individual students, other adults in the school ) Looking at data beyond EWS Indicators can: Help identify individual and common needs among groups of students Raise new questions and increase understanding of why students’ fall off-track for graduation

Step Four: Interpret EWS Data (cont.):

Step Four: Interpret EWS Data (cont.) Understanding characteristics of students at-risk of dropout is important because: Decisions to persist or drop out are affected by multiple contextual factors - family, school, neighborhood, peers Personal and school factors contribute to success or failure during the freshman year EWS indicators, such as attendance and course performance problems are distinct indicators of risk, but are highly interrelated, and both can signal disengagement Student background characteristics are less important in explaining failures than behaviors in the middle grades and in high school

Step Five: Assign and Provide Interventions:

Step Five: Assign and Provide Interventions The EWIMS team matches individual students to specific interventions after having gathered information about: Potential root causes for individual students who are flagged as at risk The available academic and behavioral support and dropout prevention programs in the school, district, and community A tiered approach can be used to match students to interventions based on their individual needs 29

Tiered Approach to Dropout Prevention:

Tiered Approach to Dropout Prevention 30

Step Five (cont.): Assign and Provide Interventions:

Example Programs that incorporate this strategy: America’s Choice First Things First School Development Program Talent Development High School Example Programs that incorporate this strategy: America’s Choice Talent Development High School Step Five (cont.): Assign and Provide Interventions Focus on achievement in core courses Content recovery courses Tutoring as an academic support Tiered approaches Attendance and behavior monitors Advisories and team teaching Counseling and mentoring Small learning communities and school within a school for greater personalization Partnerships between high schools and feeder middle schools Ninth grade transition programs Support for students with disabilities outside of school Career and college awareness Family engagement Community engagement Example Programs that incorporate this strategy: America’s Choice Check and Connect Coca-Cola VYP Interpersonal Relations Personal Growth Class NGP Quantum Opportunities Program School Development Program Talent Development High School Twelve Together Example Programs that incorporate this strategy: Academic Literacy Program Positive Behavioral Interventions and Supports (PBIS) Rehabilitation, Empowerment, National supports, Education, and Work (RENEW) RTI Strategic Instruction Model Example Programs that incorporate this strategy: ALAS Check and Connect Coca-Cola VYP Interpersonal Relations Personal Growth Class PBIS Project COFFEE Talent Development High School Teen Outreach Program Example Programs that incorporate this strategy: Middle College High School NGP STEP Example Programs that incorporate this strategy: ALAS Check and Connect First Things First Interpersonal Relations Personal Growth Class Project COFFEE Twelve Together Example Programs that incorporate this strategy: Career Academies First Things First Middle College High School NGP Project COFFEE Talent Development High School Example Programs that incorporate this strategy: Project GRAD Example Programs that incorporate this strategy: Career Academies Ninth Grade Success Academies STEP Example Programs that incorporate this strategy: Check and Connect PBIS Example Programs that incorporate this strategy: Career Academies Learning to Work Program (NYC) Lifelong Options Program (LOP) Middle College High School Project COFFEE RENEW Twelve Together Example Programs that incorporate this strategy: ALAS First Things First Support Center for Adolescent Mothers (Family Growth Center) NGP Talent Development High School Example programs using these types of strategies: ALAS America’s Choice Career Academies Check and Connect Support Center for Adolescent Mothers (Family Growth Center) Middle College High School NGP Quantum Opportunities Program Teen Outreach Program 31

Step Six: Monitor Students and Interventions:

Step Six: Monitor Students and Interventions The EWIMS team monitors students who are participating in interventions to: Make necessary changes by identifying students’ whose needs are not being met, and/or those students who may no longer be struggling Identify new interventions that will to meet students’ needs Use data to monitor the effectiveness of interventions offered Increase knowledge about the general effectiveness of interventions Improve the matching of students to interventions Communicate with appropriate stakeholders and solicit their involvement in the process (e.g., feeder schools, next grade level) 32

Step Seven: Evaluate and Refine the EWIMS Process:

Step Seven: Evaluate and Refine the EWIMS Process Refine the EWIMS Implementation Process During the school year At the end of a school year Identify short- and long-term needs and solutions Student needs School climate Organizational needs (school and/or district) 33

EWS Implementation Lessons Learned :

EWS Implementation Lessons Learned General Considerations Develop a common understanding of early warning system indicators Use early warning system data to take action to support at-risk students “Interventions” are not just dropout prevention programs

EWS Implementation Lessons Learned (cont.):

EWS Implementation Lessons Learned (cont.) District Considerations Identify district wide needs Provide and streamline access to data School Considerations Empower action through leadership Beware of overwhelming staff Remember EWIMS is a whole school, whole student strategy Consider context Get help!

Dropout Prevention Research Alliance:

Dropout Prevention Research Alliance Focus: Increase graduation rates and reduce persistent disparities in graduation and dropout rates among student subgroups. Short-Term Goals : Identify locally valid predictors of student dropout in a set of pilot districts in multiple states in the Midwest. Build and implement comprehensive early warning systems based on those indicators. Long-Term Goal: Scale the system across Ohio in ways that allow evaluation of the efficacy of well-implemented early warning indicator systems. 36

EE=EIWM impact :

EE=EIWM impact Opportunity for Michigan High Schools! 37

On-Time Graduation Project Impact Study :

On-Time Graduation Project Impact Study Direct request from the Ohio dropout prevention alliance Study to identify the i mpact of EWIMS on both student and school level outcomes 38

On-Time Graduation Project Participating Schools :

On-Time Graduation Project Participating Schools 72 schools from Indiana, Michigan & Ohio 36 receive EWIMS during the 2013-14 school year 36 receive EWIMS during the 2015-16 school year School Eligibility School Size 150+ grade 9 students Graduation Rates 25% to 95% graduation rates S pecial emphasis on schools between 50% and 90% Not currently using an early warning system that mirrors the EWIMS process 39

On-Time Graduation Project Key Implementation Expectations:

On-Time Graduation Project Key Implementation Expectations Identify an EWIMS team that convenes monthly meetings to implement the EWIMS Process Upload student level attendance, course performance, GPA, and possibly behavioral data into the EWS Tool 40

On-Time Graduation Project Activities:

On-Time Graduation Project Activities Activities Description Technical and Implementation Trainings (5 events) Professional development workshops, predominately by way of webinar, that are aligned to the critical points of the EWIMS implementation process Community of Practice (9 events) Cross-site meetings that provide school-based EWIMS team members an opportunity to share their successes and challenges while learning from each other On-Site Support (2 events) REL staff will attend s chool-based EWIMS team meetings to provide the EWIMS team individualized assistance on implementation Responsive Technical Assistance (as needed) REL staff will be available by phone/email for technical or implementation questions 41

PowerPoint Presentation:

42 Mindee O’Cummings P: 202-329-1652 F: 202-403-5553 E-Mail: [email protected] REL Midwest 1120 East Diehl Road, Suite 200 Naperville, IL 60563-1486 General Information: 866-730-6735

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