Save Your Ash_Hauer

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EAB Management Resources: Economics of Management Options Richard J. Hauer 1 , Ph.D and Andrew R. Vanatta 2 1 Associate Professor of Urban Forestry 2 Research Assistant and Urban Planning Graduate Student College of Natural Resources, University of Wisconsin – Stevens Point APGA 2012 Conference: Garden Paths Columbus, OH June 20, 2012 e-mail … Hauer UWSP … for a copy of today’s talk

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Green the Grey Landscaping Energy savings Water interception Reduce air pollutants Business activity Aesthetics Important functions of trees … value , benefits , money …that no trees & dead trees don’t provide … liability , costs , money

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Plant Establish Prune Infrastructure repair Pest control Remove Administrative Important management costs of trees … no free lunch …you get what you pay for… a buck burger or a steak sandwich? Toledo, OH before (June 2006 ) and after (June 2009) Photos by Herms

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Estimated 254 million ash trees statewide (Trees > 1”) Estimated 4.3 million street, park, and private ash trees (Sydnor 2007) Estimated 1.1 to 4.0 million urban ash trees (Kovacs et al. 2010) Ohio Estimated Total $3.4 billion (Sydnor et al. 2007) Iowa Estimated Total $1.5 billion ($512/tree) 1 Kentucky Estimated Total $2.5 billion Sydnor et al. 2011) Minnesota Estimated Total $1.4 billion ($512/tree) 1 Wisconsin Estimated Total $2.7 billion ($512/tree) 1 Estimated national loss $10 – 20 billion next 10 years 1 Extrapolated from: Wisconsin’s Emerald Ash Borer Information Site (1/31/2011) 2 Tree canopy functions: reduce pollution, lower heating and cooling costs, absorb storm water runoff, etc. Whether You Like it or Not, EAB Will Cost You Money How much will it cost Ohio?

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Milwaukee, WI ~ 573,000 ash citywide (17.4%) UFORE Study $221 million Structural value $600,000 Functional value (annual benefits) Estimated costs of EAB 33,000 street trees Tree Replacement $24.8 million ($750/tree) Tree Removal & Disposal $7.9 million ($240/tree) Canopy Functions Lost 30 years 2 $3.1 million ($104,182/year) Total EAB Impact $36 million Sydnor et al. (2011) (Milwaukee Population 948,944 ) Total EAB Impact (low estimate) $376 million Total EAB Impact (high estimate) $730 million 1 Extrapolated from: Wisconsin’s Emerald Ash Borer Information Site (1/31/2011) 2 Tree canopy functions: reduce pollution, lower heating and cooling costs, absorb storm water runoff, etc. 3 Estimated costs of EAB (Sydnor 2011 et al.) per capita approach (948,944) Potential total costs per 1,000 residents estimated to be between $395,943 and $769,687 Whether You Like it or Not, EAB Will Cost You Money How much will it cost Milwaukee, WI?

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Live Ash Standing and Treated in IL Extreme Urban Forest Makeover: The Green Reaper Edition Dead Ash Standing in Toledo , OH. Outcomes of EAB Management Alternatives Photos: Coalition for Urban Ash Tree Conservation …base management on your objectives… outcomes are the result!

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An Orderly Transformation of the Urban Forest Pest problems can be chaotic until you bring order

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Whether You Like it or Not, EAB Will Cost You Money How much will it cost? A DED Example circa 1970’s Figure 2. Projected elm tree losses from Dutch elm disease under varying levels of control. (From Cannon and Worley 1976)

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Ash Mortality Curve With No Treatment (Herms) What the Science is Telling Us

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Whether You Like it or Not, EAB Will Cost You Money How much will it cost? Point is we understand DED Debris pulse

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The Urban Forest is Dynamic and Devastation is Part of This Extreme Urban Forest Makeover (3/29/99 St. Peter, MN) It does not get much more worse than this

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What are your questions? The answer varies depending on the question Cost to remove dead trees only Value of lost benefits Cost to replant Highest urban forest value Greatest number of trees remaining

The Economics of EAB Management:

The Economics of EAB Management Making sound, site-dependant, management decisions Economics is One Decision Making Approach Got Money?

Study Objectives:

Study Objectives Economic analysis of four EAB management scenarios… 1. Do nothing (No Control) 2. Treatment (Insecticide) 3. Preemptive Removal (all ash in five years) 4. Preemptive Removal & non-ash replacement (in five years) No EAB scenario for comparison (added later) EAB Decision Making Model What are your objectives?

Study Objectives :

Study Objectives Two valuation models CTLA ( Compensatory ) i-Tree ( Functional ) Two evaluation methods Net value of retained trees Net value lost to EAB Help managers make effective decisions based on their own goals and objectives EAB Decision Making Model What are your objectives?

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Insecticide Treatment 99% survival rate (emamectin benzoate) Remove Only 31 trees/yr. for 5 years Remove/Replace 31 trees/yr. for 5 years Replant 31 trees/yr. for 5 years 98% survival rate for new trees Control Increasing mortality for first 7 years 80% survival rate after 7 year “tipping point” 0.4 inch diameter growth rate for all options Study Population Modeling Tree Populations are Different?

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Modeled Ash Tree Loss Over 20 Years Different Options and Tree Retention

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Where: VR i = net average annual value retained for alternative i VL i = net average annual value lost for alternative i C m = maintenance costs C t = treatment costs C r = removal costs C p = planting costs d = discount rate Retained Value Lost Value Calculating Net Value What is your data?

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MANGEMENT ALTERNATIVE ANALYSIS Goals & Objectives Management Alternatives No EAB Control Treatment Removal Remove & Replant Mean Net Per Tree Value $965 $977 $212 $234 $988 Net Per Tree Value at Year 20 $884 $918 $0 $232 $931 Net Total Tree Value at Year 20 $25,994 $538,055 $0 $164,976 $621,836 Mean Net Per Tree Value Lost $1,313 $1,290 $320 $1,278 $1,286 Total Trees Lost After 20 Years 971 414 1,000 1,290 332 Mean Annual Tree Diameter (DBH) 12.0 13.6 2.5 6.1 13.7 Mean Number of Trees Lost Per Year 46 20 48 61 16 Trees Retained at Year 20 29 586 0 710 668 Mean Per Year Maintenance Cost $14,175 $22,843 $6,435 $13,037 $23,437 Total Maintenance Cost $297,685 $479,698 $135,142 $273,770 $492,179 Mean Per Year Removal Cost $11,399 $4,560 $13,424 $14,507 $3,732 Total Removal Cost $239,386 $95,765 $281,894 $304,648 $78,373 Mean Per Year Planting Cost $0 $0 $0 $12,035 $0 Total Planting Cost $0 $0 $0 $252,742 $0 Mean Per Year Treatment Cost $0 $8,158 $0 $0 $0 Total Treatment Cost $0 $171,321 $0 $0 $0 Total Management Cost $537,071 $746,783 $417,036 $831,160 $570,552 Mean Per Year Total Management Cost $25,575 $35,561 $19,859 $39,579 $27,169 Mean Per Tree Annual Management Cost $61 $43 $20 $39 $32 Management Alternatives Retained Tree Analysis Lost Tree Analysis Benefit/Cost Mean Net Value Relative Ratio Mean Net Value Relative Ratio Control $396,059 1.00 $60,689 1.00 0.79 Treatment $774,556 1.96 $25,438 2.39 1.08 Preemptive Removal $124,352 0.31 $63,907 0.95 0.35 Remove & Replant $203,349 0.51 $78,548 0.77 0.29 No EAB $813,277 2.05 $20,353 2.98 1.47

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(PV Benefits Treatment – PV Costs Treatment ) (PV Benefits Control – PV Costs Control ) Relative Ratio Ratio > 1.0 Scenario is more cost effective than doing nothing Ratio = 1.0 Scenario is the same as doing nothing Ratio < 1.0 Scenario is less cost effective than doing nothing = Net Value and the Relative Ratio A comparison of management options and doing nothing

Milwaukee Example ($3.75, 2x rate):

Milwaukee Example ($3.75, 2x rate)

Comparison 95% survival, 1.25 1x ($6.1 million) 99% survival, 3.75 2x ($9.9 million):

Comparison 95% survival, 1.25 1x ($6.1 million) 99% survival, 3.75 2x ($9.9 million)

Comparison 95% survival ($6.1 million) versus 99% survival ($9.9 million):

Comparison 95% survival ($6.1 million) versus 99% survival ($9.9 million)

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An Existing EAB Management Approach Another great tool to explore Some Data Inputs 1) Ash Tree Inventory Data 2) Timespan for Removing and Replacing Ash Trees 3) Treatment Cost and Frequency of Applications 4) Replacement Cost 5) Removal Cost 6) Discount Rate

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The End! But not the end of the story?

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