economic survey2009-10

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2009-10 ALOK DUBEY [email protected] ET CIVIL

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CONTENTS Introduction Overview of economy Highlights of economic survey Key indicator factors Rate of growth and per capita income Quarterly growth rates Crop production Growth of industrial groups Growth of product groups Growth of IT sector Production of fabrics Pharmaceutical growth rate Economic performance and foreign trade Infrastructure funds Energy Hydropower Conclusion Slide 2

Introduction : 

Introduction The Finance Ministry presents the Economic Survey in the parliament every year, just before the Union Budget .It is the ministry's view on the annual economic development of the country. Economic survey which is a yearly affair, is a comprehensive display of the economy of India, revenues, growth rate, GDP, energy capacity addition, human index ,service sector, foreign exchange reserve, trade, agriculture production,manufacuring,infrastructure, I-T sector,fabrics,fertilizers,pharmaceuticals,industry,education etc.. The Union Budget of India is prepared on the basis of the economic survey. This year economic survey was presented by finance minister Sh. Pranab Mukherjee. Slide 3

The fiscal year 2009-10 began as a difficult one due to significant slowdown in the growth rate in the second half of 2008-09, following the financial crisis that began in the industrialized nations in 2007 .The growth rate of the gross domestic product (GDP) in 2008-09 was 6.7 per cent, with growth in the last two quarters hovering around 6 per cent. It was year of reckoning for the policymakers, who had taken a calculated risk in providing substantial fiscal expansion to counter the negative fallout of the global slowdown. A major concern during the year 2009-10, especially in the second half, was the emergence of high double-digit food inflation.  The growth rates in per capita income and consumption, which are gross measures of welfare in general, have declined in the last two years. This is a reflection of the slowdown in the overall GDP growth. While the growth in per capita income, measured in terms of GDP at constant market prices, has declined from a high of 8.1 per cent in 2007-08 to 3.7 per cent in 2008-09 and then recovered to 5.3 per cent in 2009-10. : 

The fiscal year 2009-10 began as a difficult one due to significant slowdown in the growth rate in the second half of 2008-09, following the financial crisis that began in the industrialized nations in 2007 .The growth rate of the gross domestic product (GDP) in 2008-09 was 6.7 per cent, with growth in the last two quarters hovering around 6 per cent. It was year of reckoning for the policymakers, who had taken a calculated risk in providing substantial fiscal expansion to counter the negative fallout of the global slowdown. A major concern during the year 2009-10, especially in the second half, was the emergence of high double-digit food inflation.  The growth rates in per capita income and consumption, which are gross measures of welfare in general, have declined in the last two years. This is a reflection of the slowdown in the overall GDP growth. While the growth in per capita income, measured in terms of GDP at constant market prices, has declined from a high of 8.1 per cent in 2007-08 to 3.7 per cent in 2008-09 and then recovered to 5.3 per cent in 2009-10. OVERVIEW OF THE ECONOMY

Highlights Of Economic SurveyEconomic09-10 : 

Highlights Of Economic SurveyEconomic09-10 Economy likely to grow by up to 8.75 per cent in 2010-11 High double-digit food inflation in 2009-10 major concern Farm & allied sector production falls 0.2 per cent in 2009-10 Need serious policy initiatives for 4 per cent agriculture growth Moots direct food subsidy via food coupons to households Exports in April-December 2009 down 20.3 per cent Imports in April-December 2009 down 23.6 per cent Trade gap narrowed to USD 76.24 bn in April-December. 32.5 per cent savings & 34.9 per cent investment (of GDP in 2008-09) put India in league of world's fastest growing nations. Domestic oil production to rise 11 per cent in 2009-10 Slide 5

Gas output up 52.8 per cent to 50.2 billion cubic meters with RIL starting production India world's 2nd largest wireless network with 525.1 million mobile users Virtually every second Indian has access to phone Auction for 3G spectrum to provide existing and foreign players to bring in new technology and innovations. Growth in telecom to continue with monthly additions exceeding 17.6 million connections Share of central government expenditure on social services up by 19.46 per cent in current fiscal Current fuel prices not fiscally sustainable Power, coal seeing a revivalInvestment growth still below GDP growth rate and India not immune to global prices.Gross fiscal deficit pegged at 6.5 pc of GDP in 2009-10 India's GDP to return to 9% in 2011-12 India can become world's fastest growing economy in 4 yearsThe fiscal deficit for the current fiscal year is expected to shoot up to 6.8% of GDP : 

Gas output up 52.8 per cent to 50.2 billion cubic meters with RIL starting production India world's 2nd largest wireless network with 525.1 million mobile users Virtually every second Indian has access to phone Auction for 3G spectrum to provide existing and foreign players to bring in new technology and innovations. Growth in telecom to continue with monthly additions exceeding 17.6 million connections Share of central government expenditure on social services up by 19.46 per cent in current fiscal Current fuel prices not fiscally sustainable Power, coal seeing a revivalInvestment growth still below GDP growth rate and India not immune to global prices.Gross fiscal deficit pegged at 6.5 pc of GDP in 2009-10 India's GDP to return to 9% in 2011-12 India can become world's fastest growing economy in 4 yearsThe fiscal deficit for the current fiscal year is expected to shoot up to 6.8% of GDP

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GDP Growth Economic Performance Source: Economic Survey, 2010

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Inflation Slide 18 1.6% Annual inflation Source: Economic Survey, 2010 Economic Performance 13.54% *Average Apr.-Dec. 2009

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Fiscal & Revenue Deficits Slide 19 Economic Performance 6.8% 4.8% Source: Economic Survey, 2010

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Foreign Exchange Reserves Slide 20 Source: Economic Survey, 2010 Economic Performance $283.5 bn

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FDI / FII Slide 21 $26.51 bn Economic Performance $20.52 bn

ENERGY : 

ENERGY capacity addition during April- December 2009 was only 43.9 per cent of the target of 14,507 mega watt (MW) for the current fiscal. corresponding achievements by the Central, State and private sectors being at 29.4 per cent, 40.5 per cent and 54.8 per cent respectively. Electricity generation by power utilities during 2009-10 has been targeted to go up by 9.1 per cent to 789.5 billion KWh . Decline in hydroelectric power generation was mainly due to poor monsoons. The total consumption of coal by the power sector during the period was 271.0 million tonnes. About 16.7 million tonnes of coal was imported. The deficit in power supply in terms of peak availability and total energy availability rose continuously from 2003-04 to 2007-08, a period characterized by high growth in peak demand and total energy requirement. The peak deficit came down significantly in 2008-09 on account of a slowdown in growth of peak demand. During April-December 2009. The peak and total energy deficits came down considerably to 12.6 per cent and 9.8 percent respectively from 13.8 per cent and 10.9 per cent during the corresponding period in the previous year. Slide 22

Development of hydropower : 

Development of hydropower Forty-six hydro projects with an aggregate capacity of 13,675 MW are under construction in the country. The main reasons for their slow development include difficult and inaccessible sites, difficulties in land acquisition, rehabilitation, environmental and forest issues, inter-State issues, geological surprises and Energy, Infrastructure and Communications contractual issues. Private-sector participation in hydel power projects has been increasing; there are 14 scheme with an installed capacity of 4,383 MW under construction in the private sector. Private developers have been allotted 129 schemes with an installed capacity 36,123 MW by States which are yet to be taken up for construction. Out of the 162 projects for which Preliminary feasibility reports were prepared under the 50,000 MW Hydro Electric Initiative, 77 (33,951 MW) have been taken up for detailed survey and investigation and preparation of (DPRs)/implementation. So far, DPRs for 21 schemes have been prepared. Slide 23

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CONCLUSION The first challenge before us is to quickly revert to the high GDP growth path of 9 per cent and then find the means to cross the 'double digit growth barrier'. second challenge is to harness economic growth to consolidate the recent gains in making development more inclusive. We have to strengthen food security, improve education opportunities and provide health facilities . Third challenge relates to the weaknesses in government systems, structures and institutions at different levels of governance. it is the bottleneck of our public delivery mechanisms. The growth rate of the index of industrial production for December is remarkable 16.8 per cent. Hence, going by simple calculations based on the above-mentioned variables, coupled with the Economic Survey 2009-10 fact that agriculture did have a set-back this year and is only gradually getting back to the projected path, a reasonable forecast for the year 2010-11 is that the economy will improve its GDP growth by around 1 percentage point from that witnessed in 2009-10. Given the steadily improving fundamentals of the economy over and above the short-term improvements that occurred during the current fiscal year, the medium-term prospects of the Indian economy are really strong Enthused by reforms and the strong fundamentals, the Economic Survey on Thursday predicts that India would bounce back to a high nine per cent growth in 2011-12 on the way to becoming world's fastest growing economy in four years. Slide 28

REFERENCES : 

REFERENCES budget.nic.in .zeenews.com india-server.com beta.thehindu.com/business/Economy www.pwc.com/in/en Slide 29

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