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Impacts of Climate Change on Disaster Risk in Mozambique : 

Impacts of Climate Change on Disaster Risk in Mozambique May 2008 - January 2009 Prepared by the National Institute for Disaster Management (INGC) Funded by Denmark, United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) and GTZ

The study ‘Impacts of Climate Change on Disaster Risk in Mozambique’ seeks to answer: : 

The study ‘Impacts of Climate Change on Disaster Risk in Mozambique’ seeks to answer: To what extent will vulnerability and exposure to natural disasters alter with projected climate change, given socio-economic developments, by 2030 and 2060? What is the extreme scenario? What adaptation is needed to reduce vulnerability to these impacts of climate change?

Mozambique: land zoning : 

Mozambique: land zoning 5 zones: South - Maputo, Gaza and Inhambane provinces Central -Tete, Manica, Sofala and Zambezia North - Nampula, Cabo Delgado and Niassa Coastal – most vulnerable to cyclonic activity River flood plain systems – most vulnerable to flood and water stress

Past trends and future changes in the climate of Mozambique : 

Past trends and future changes in the climate of Mozambique Temperature: Period 1960-2005 Significant positive trends in temperature change are observed across most of the country and all four seasons The duration of the longest heat-wave has increased by 9 days Period 2040-2060 GCMs project maximum temperatures increases will be between 2.5°C and 3°C during the SON months Period 2081-2100 GCMs project increases in temperature by as much as +5-6°C over the Centre during the SON months

Past trends and future changes in the climate of Mozambique : 

Past trends and future changes in the climate of Mozambique Figure 4 (synthesis report): Climate variability and future projections of climate change per zone: minimum temperatures (left hand graphs) and maximum temperatures (right hand graphs). The black line shows observed trends (1960-2005), the red lines show future change (periods 2040-2060 and 2080-2100) (Source: Tadross, 2009).

Past trends and future changes in the climate of Mozambique : 

Past trends and future changes in the climate of Mozambique Rainfall: Period 1960-2005 Later start to the rainfall season Increase in dry day persistence and dry spell length in N.E. Period 2040-2060 GCMs project an increase during the DJF and the MAM months Period 2081-2100 Across all zones, increases in evaporation will likely be greater than increases in rainfall during the dry season (JJA and SON months)

Past trends and future changes in the climate of Mozambique : 

Past trends and future changes in the climate of Mozambique Figure 5 (synthesis report): Changes in the annual cycle of a) Rainfall (mm day-1); b) Maximum temperature (°C); c) potential evapotranspiration (PET) (mm day-1) simulated by seven GCMs for the North, Central, Southern and Coastal zones. Green shading indicated the range (olive line the median) for the 2046-2065 period, blue shading the range (blue line the median) change for the 2080-2100 period. PMI Rainfall Maximum Temperature

Past trends in cyclonic activity and sea level rise in Mozambique : 

Past trends in cyclonic activity and sea level rise in Mozambique Tropical cyclones: Period 1980-2008 15 cyclones (25%) made landfall on the coast Category 3-5: two in the period 1980-1993; seven in the period 1994-2007 Observations suggest a southward shift in trajectory and landfall Period 2030-2100 Trends in observations indicate an increase in frequency and intensity of cyclones GCMs project decreasing frequency but increasing cyclone intensity

Future changes in cyclonic activity and sea level rise in Mozambique : 

Future changes in cyclonic activity and sea level rise in Mozambique Sea level rise (SLR): Period 1960-2001 Records are consistent with estimates of regional trends and identified global trends. Since 1961 global rates have risen at an average rate of 1.8mm per year and since 1993 at an average rate of 3.1mm per year Period 2030-2100 Figure 7 (synthesis report): Sea level rise scenarios.

Future changes in cyclonic activity and sea level rise in Mozambique : 

Future changes in cyclonic activity and sea level rise in Mozambique Low SLR scenario: Tropical cyclones principal threat Damage potential increases with increasing sea levels Coastal erosion is likely to be episodic, associated with extreme storm events Coastal set-back will reach approximately 30m High SLR scenario: Permanent inundation of the coast and low-lying areas principal threat Coastal set-back erosion would reach approximately 500m

Future changes in cyclonic activity and sea level rise in Mozambique : 

Future changes in cyclonic activity and sea level rise in Mozambique Beira in a Low SLR scenario The sea wall is 3.4m - the height of the one year return period. An extreme event of 3.8m returning on average every 5 years in Beira will have a return period of 3 years in a Low SLR. scenario in 2030. Beira in a High SLR scenario The city will be cut off from the interior and become an island, the port will need relocating. A strategy of managed retreat from the rising sea will need to be investigated.

Costs of coastal protection in Mozambique : 

Costs of coastal protection in Mozambique SLR scenarios (Nicholls and Tol, 2006) Expenditure for protection classes, noting additional cost for countries with delta coastlines (including Mozambique) In 2000 GDP stood at US$98 per capita in Mozambique Mozambique needs to invest now in protecting its vulnerable delta coastline against climate change

Costs of coastal protection in Mozambique : 

Costs of coastal protection in Mozambique Cyclones: The re-insurance industry has recognized the need to increase the probability of tropical cyclones making landfall on vulnerable coasts in its calculations of risk. Substantial upward adjustments to the cost of cover are being made. Devastating cyclones and floods have been experienced in central and southern provinces of Mozambique with increasing regulatory. Those of 2008 displaced 60,000 people. © Brett Charlton 2007

Past trends and future changes in river hydrology in Mozambique : 

Past trends and future changes in river hydrology in Mozambique Flooding Period 1950-2008 Rivers currently exceed the flood alert level every 2-3 years Very large floods exceeding 1.5 times the flood stage occur about once every 15 to 20 years. Period 2030-2060 The GCMs project little or no change in flood peak magnitude, except for the Limpopo The GCMs predict minimal change in flood frequency, except for risk in the coastal basins of the South and North

Future changes in river hydrology in Mozambique : 

Future changes in river hydrology in Mozambique Salt water intrusion Table 2: Area impacted by salt water intrusion as a result of sea level rise and storm surge, by approximately 2030

Future changes in river hydrology in Mozambique : 

Future changes in river hydrology in Mozambique Ocean tides are the largest natural forcing affecting sea water intrusion into river systems Period 2030 Map 23 shows that vast areas of the South and Central interior are highly susceptible to loss of land caused by salt water intrusion by 2030 Map 23: Inundated areas and salt water intrusion in the Limpopo, Incomati and Maputo rivers.

Past trends and future changes in agricultural land use in Mozambique : 

Past trends and future changes in agricultural land use in Mozambique Period 1986-2007 Over 95% of the food crops are produced under rain-fed conditions Cultivated land has increased by 23% 47% increase in area cultivated in the fertile floodplains – largely inundated during floods Annually require 2,800,000ha for 20.5 million and 2,542,000 tons cereal Period 2030/40-2060 If the population grows by 2% annually will require 10,250,000ha for 35.3 million people and 9,500,000 tons of cereals

Future changes in agricultural land useand crop suitability in Mozambique : 

Future changes in agricultural land useand crop suitability in Mozambique Period 2030/40-2060 Changes in land suitability for six crops (cassava, maize, sorghum, soya, groundnut and cotton) were estimated using three GCMs. “no significant change” in suitable area is the dominant category for all crops in all zones suitable areas may increase in the Centre and the North zones most affected by loss of suitable area will generally be those that already struggle from the impacts of irregular and extreme climate events

Future changes in agricultural land useand crop suitability in Mozambique : 

Future changes in agricultural land useand crop suitability in Mozambique Period 2030/40-2060 The increases in yields attainable with the intensification of agriculture and technological development are higher than the expected decreases in yields caused by climate change. Intensification and expansion of agriculture for bio-energy and mining can cause environmental and ecological degradation. Coupled with climate change impacts this has serious implications for food security, especially in dry years © Skip ODonnell 2008

Government response and role of the private sector : 

Government response and role of the private sector There is no systematic institutional focus on climate change. It requires: A revision of the legal framework Inter-sectoral co-ordination between ministries Improved capacity to implement and monitor policies and legislation Decisions made now will directly affect the extent to which Mozambique will be able to cope with the impacts of climate change by 2030 and beyond.

Conclusions : 

Conclusions In the advent of low global mitigation Mozambique will experience: A temperature rise of 2-2.5˚C by 2030/40 and 5-6˚C by 2080 An increase in rainfall variability An increase in flood risk, predominantly in the South More intense cyclones and sea level rise placing: City of Beira, parts of Maputo, Pemba,Vilankulos and islands at risk Significant reductions in river flows for the Zambezi and Save Further salt water intrusion An decrease in agriculturally suitable areas in the coastal zones

Conclusions : 

Conclusions If low yields are maintained, population growth and increasing demands on land and diminishing water supplies may create conflicting around food security by as early as 2030, which will be detrimental to the people and the economy.

Conclusions : 

Conclusions The extent to which the vulnerability of Mozambique will increase with increased exposure depends on: Its adaptive capacity The socio-economic and technological development path it pursues The protection and planning puts in place in the coming 5-10 years

Recommendations : 

Recommendations An effective response by government to climate change requires: A systematic institutional focus on climate change A revision of the legal framework to cover aspects of climate change currently omitted The generation of inter-sectoral co-ordination between ministries Improvement in the capacity to implement and monitor policies and legislation Encouragement of responsible private sector investment