risk management

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Slide 1:

RISK MANAGEMENT Updated Jan09 TSP-1

LEARNING OBJECTIVES:

LEARNING OBJECTIVES A. Terminal Learning Objective (TLO). As a leader, apply the risk management process to a mission training plan task in a garrison or tactical environment. Specifically, the leader will correctly answer questions about basic risk management concepts and terms, and complete the worksheet for the scenario provided in accordance with the risk management worksheet instructions.

Enabling Learning Objectives (ELO):

Enabling Learning Objectives (ELO) Identify the three categories of accident cause factors Define the underlying sources (reasons) of accident cause factors Identify and define key terms associated with risk management Identify hazards using METT-T factors, available hazard detection resources and personal experience/expertise Determine the level of risk Develop control options and make risk decisions Determine how to implement, supervise, and evaluate the effectiveness of controls

Developmental References:

Developmental References Small Unit Risk Management Booklet Leader’s Guide to Force Protection through Risk Management Book The Small Unit Leader’s Force Protection Course Lesson Guide Small Unit Safety Officer/NCO Guide (Pam 385-1)

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Battle and Non-Battle Casualties** Rate* per 1,000 soldiers and percent Army W.W.II 1942-45 Korea 1950-53 Vietnam 1965-72 DS/S 1990-91 NTC FY93 (BLUFOR-GROUND) Accident Friendly Fire Enemy Action 95.57 56% 1.50*** 1% 73.61 43% 2.23 3% 11.14 75% 154.66 54% 120.33 44% 148.56 55% 3.03*** 1% 2.67*** 1% 131.20 45% .68 5% 2.90 20% 7.87**** 9% 74.17**** 88% * Per 12 months for W.W.II, Korea and Vietnam; 14 months for DS/S; per rotation NTC. ** Deaths and injuries (ground and aviation) for entire war/operation. *** Research based estimate (2% of all direct- and indirect- fire losses). **** Simulated (MILES) direct fire vehicle kills. TSP-2

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RISK MANAGEMENT WORKSHEET 1. MSN/TASK : 2. DTG BEGIN : 3. DATE PREPARED: END : 4. PREPARED BY: 9. OVERALL RISK LEVEL AFTER CONTROLS ARE IMPLEMENTED (CIRCLE ONE): 5. HAZARDS 7. CONTROLS 11. HOW TO IMPLEMENT 12. HOW TO SUPERVISE 6. INITIAL RISK LEVEL 8. RESIDUAL RISK LEVEL RANK/LAST NAME/DUTY POSITION 10. RISK DECISION AUTHORITY: RANK/LAST NAME/DUTY POSITION LOW MODERATE HIGH EXTREMELY HIGH C O N T R O L S E F F E C T I V E 13. PAGE ___ of ____ 1 B-8 6 7 8 11 12 HAZARDS 9 10

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TSP-3 CAUSE FACTORS Human Error - an individual’s actions or performance is different than what is required and results in or contributes to an accident. Material Failure/Malfunction - a fault in the equipment that keeps it from working as designed, therefore causing or contributing to an accident. Environmental Conditions - any natural or manmade surroundings that negatively affect performance of individuals, equipment or materials and causes or contributes to an accident.

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TSP-4 SOURCES OF CAUSE FACTORS Individual Failure - Soldier knows and is trained to standard but elects not to follow the standard (self-discipline). Leader Failure - Leader does not enforce known standard. Training Failure - Soldier not trained to known standard (insufficient, incorrect or no training on task). Standards Failure - Standards/procedures not clear or practical, or do not exist. Support Failure - Equipment/material improperly designed/not provided.

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TSP--4A SOURCES OF CAUSE FACTORS EXAMPLES Individual Failure - Soldier knows there is a requirement to be certified on servicing tires and although he isn’t certified, he attempts to service the tire anyway so he won’t have to wait for maintenance personnel. Can’t be that hard. Leader Failure - Supervisor sees the soldier changing the tire and doesn’t stop him. Training Failure - Soldier has never had any training on how to service split rims and didn’t know that a tire cage and air extension is required for inflation. Standards Failure - The unit SOP requires the use of a tire cage, however it does not require the use of a twelve foot air gage extension. Support Failure - The unit tire cage was not properly constructed and the unit does not have a twelve foot extension for the air gage .

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CAUSES: HUMAN ERROR MATERIAL FAILURE/MALFUNCTION ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS UNDERLYING SOURCES OF CAUSES INDIVIDUAL FAILURE LEADER FAILURE TRAINING FAILURE STANDARDS FAILURE SUPPORT FAILURE

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Risk Management - the process of identifying and controlling hazards to protect the force. It’s five steps represent a logical thought process from which users develop tools, techniques, and procedures for applying risk management in their areas of responsibility. It is a closed-loop process applicable to any situation and environment. Key Definitions TSP-5

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Hazard - any real or potential condition that can cause injury, illness or death of personnel, or damage to, or loss of equipment or property, or mission degradation. (AR 310-25) Risk - chance of hazard or bad consequences; exposure to chance of injury or loss. (Oxford Dictionary, 1976) Key Definitions TSP-6

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Risk level is expressed in terms of hazard probability and severity. Probability - the likelihood that an event will occur. Severity - the expected consequence of an event in terms of degree of injury, property damage, or other mission impairing factors (loss of combat power, etc..,) that could occur. Key Definitions TSP-7

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Risk Assessment - the identification and assessment of hazards (first two steps of the Risk Management process). Controls - actions taken to eliminate hazards or reduce their risk(s). Key Definitions TSP-8

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Key Definitions Residual Risk - the level of risk remaining after controls have been identified and selected. Risk Decision - the decision to accept or not accept the risk(s) associated with an action made by the commander, leader, or the individual responsible for performing that action. TSP-9

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WHAT IS THE FIRST STEP OF RISK MANAGEMENT?

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Risk Management Process Identify Hazards . Identify hazards to the force. Consider all aspects of current and future situations, environment, and known historical problem areas. TSP-10 Assess hazards Implement controls Supervise & evaluate IDENTIFY HAZARDS Develop controls & make risk decision STEP 1

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HOW DO WE IDENTIFY THE HAZARDS? LOTS OF AREAS TO CONSIDER POSSIBILITY OF OVERLOOKING SOMETHING WHAT KIND OF FRAMEWORK WILL HELP IDENTIFY POSSIBLE HAZARDS?

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THE METT-T FACTORS PROVIDE THAT FRAMEWORK!

Slide 20:

METT-T M ission - Specified, implied and subtasks. E nemy - Size and capability (SALUTE ). T errain/Weather - Environmental conditions. T roops and Equipment - - Troops - training, type, number, and physical condition. - Equipment - amount, type, design, and condition. T ime available - plan, rehearse, and conduct . TSP-11

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ID HAZARDS - OBJECTIVE OBJECTIVE - Identified those hazards most likely to result in loss of combat power CRITERIA For “ Most Likely Hazard” - Hazard is not adequately controlled at this echelon or next lower echelon. - Hazard should be tracked via risk management work sheet. TSP-12

Slide 22:

IS THE HAZARD ADEQUATELY CONTROLLED? Identified METT-T hazard - Support - Is type/amount/capability/condition of support adequate to control hazard? - Personnel - Equipment/material - Supplies - Services/facilities - Standards - Is guidance/procedure adequately clear/ practical/specific to control hazard? - Training - Is training adequately thorough and recent to control hazard? - Leader - Are leaders ready, willing and able to enforce standards required to control hazard? - Individual - Is soldier performance and conduct sufficiently self-disciplined to control hazard? Adequate YES NO A - If all “yes”, no further action. - If one or more “no”, risk manage this hazard. TSP-13

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DO THESE 5 QUESTIONS LOOK FAMILIAR? To determine if the hazard is adequately controlled, answer the five (5) questions about: the individual leaders training standards support

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CAUSES: HUMAN ERROR MATERIAL FAILURE/MALFUNCTION ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS UNDERLYING SOURCES OF CAUSES INDIVIDUAL FAILURE LEADER FAILURE TRAINING FAILURE STANDARDS FAILURE SUPPORT FAILURE

Slide 25:

Brain Storming Experts Publications Accident Information Scenario Thinking Detection Resources and Techniques TSP-14

Slide 26:

IDENTIFY HAZARDS TROOP LEADING PROCEDURES - RECEIVE THE MISSION - ISSUE THE WARNING ORDER - MAKE A TENTATIVE PLAN WHILE YOU ARE DOING THIS DO THIS TSP-15

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WHAT IS THE SECOND STEP OF RISK MANAGEMENT?

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Risk Management Process. Assess Hazards. Assess hazards to determine risks. Assess the impact of each hazard in terms of potential loss and cost, based on probability and severity. TSP-16 ASSESS HAZARDS Implement controls Supervise & evaluate Identify hazards STEP 2 Develop controls & make risk decisions

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PROBABILITY S E V E R I T Y CATASTROPHIC CRITICAL MARGINAL NEGLIGIBLE FREQUENT LIKELY OCCASIONAL SELDOM UNLIKELY RISK ASSESSMENT MATRIX E - EXTREMELY HIGH RISK H - HIGH RISK M - MODERATE RISK L - LOW RISK E E H M E H M L H H M L H M L L M L L L RISK ASSESSMENT MATRIX TSP-17 PROBABILITY -- THE LIKELIHOOD THAT AN EVENT WILL OCCUR (DUE TO THE HAZARD)

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TSP-18 PROBABILITY Frequent Likely Occasional Seldom Unlikely Frequent - Occurs often, continuously experienced. Likely - Occurs several times. Occasional - Occurs sporadically. Seldom - Unlikely, but could occur at some time. Unlikely - Can assume it will not occur.

Slide 31:

LOOK AT YOUR ARNG Hasty Risk Management Card Front side (with colors), center left Note the definition of “Probability” and note the explanations of the categories of probability: Frequent, Likely, Occasional, Seldom and Unlikely

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SEVERITY : THE EXPECTED CONSEQUENCE OF AN EVENT IN TERMS OF DEGREE OF INJURY, PROPERTY DAMAGE, OR OTHER MISSION IMPAIRING FACTORS (LOSS OF COMBAT POWER, ADVERSE PUBLICITY, ETC.) THAT COULD OCCUR.

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SEVERITY Catastrophic Critical Marginal Negligible Death or permanent total disability, system loss, major property damage. Permanent partial disability, temporary total disability in excess of 3 months, major system damage, significant property damage. Minor injury, lost workday accident, compensable injury or illness, minor system damage, minor property damage. First aid or minor supportive medical treatment, minor system impairment. SEVERITY TSP-19

Slide 34:

LOOK AT YOUR ARNG Hasty Risk Management Card Front side (with colors), top center Note the definition of “Severity” and note the explanations of the categories of severity: Catastrophic, Critical, Marginal and Negligible

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PROBABILITY S E V E R I T Y CATASTROPHIC CRITICAL MARGINAL NEGLIGIBLE FREQUENT LIKELY OCCASIONAL SELDOM UNLIKELY RISK ASSESSMENT MATRIX E - EXTREMELY HIGH RISK H - HIGH RISK M - MODERATE RISK L - LOW RISK E E H M E H M L H H M L H M L L M L L L RISK ASSESSMENT MATRIX TSP-17

Slide 36:

LOOK AT YOUR ARNG Hasty Risk Management Card Front side (with colors) Note the RISK Assessment Matrix at the bottom of that card The block where the hazard’s probability and severity intersect is the RISK LEVEL

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ASSESS THE HAZARDS - “MAKE A TENATIVE PLAN” - MAKE AN ESTIMATE OF THE SITUATION - DEVELOP SITUATION AND COA - ANALYZE COURSES OF ACTION - DETAILED MISSION ANALYSIS WHILE YOU ARE DOING THIS DO THIS TSP-20 TROOP LEADING PROCEDURES

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WHAT IS THE THIRD STEP OF RISK MANAGEMENT?

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Risk Management Process. Develop Controls and Make Risk Decisions. Develop control measures that eliminate the hazard or reduce its risk. As control measures are developed, risks are reevaluated until all risks are reduced to a level where benefits outweigh potential cost. TSP--21 Assess hazards DEVELOP CONTROLS & MAKE RISK DECISION Implement controls Supervise & evaluate Identify hazards STEP 3

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TSP-22 CONTROLS For each hazard Implement existing controls if adequate, if not Adjust to make adequate or develop new controls Consider : Realism, time, money and resources Minimize chance of accidents Maximize chance of mission accomplishment DECISION Determine level of residual risk Have the appropriate level of command accept risk Develop Controls & Make Risk Decision

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DEVELOP CONTROLS AND MAKE RISK DECISION - COMPARING COURSES OF ACTION - MAKING DECISION - EXPANDING SELECTED COA INTO A TENTATIVE PLAN WHILE YOU ARE DOING THIS DO THIS TSP-23 TROOP LEADING PROCEDURES

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WHAT IS THE FOURTH STEP OF RISK MANAGEMENT?

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Risk Management Process Implement Controls . Put controls in place that eliminate the hazards or reduce their risks. TSP--24 Assess hazards IMPLEMENT CONTROLS Supervise & evaluate Identify hazards STEP 4 Develop controls & make risk decisions

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Standing Operating Procedures (SOP'S) Orders Briefings and back-briefs Training Rehearsals New equipment IMPLEMENT CONTROLS TSP-25

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IMPLEMENT CONTROLS TROOP LEADING PROCEDURES - INITIATING MOVEMENT - RECONNOITERING - COMPLETING THE PLAN - ISSUING THE ORDER WHILE YOU ARE DOING THIS DO THIS TSP-26

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WHAT IS THE FIFTH STEP OF RISK MANAGEMENT?

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Risk Management Process Supervise & Evaluate . Perform to, and enforce standards and controls. Evaluate the effectiveness of controls and adjust/ update as necessary. TSP-27 Assess hazards Implement controls SUPERVISE & EVALUATE Identify hazards STEP 5 Develop controls & make risk decision

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Supervise All Soldiers responsible (self-discipline) for: Performing to standard Executing controls Recognizing unsafe acts or conditions Leaders are also responsible for enforcement Evaluate Effectiveness of Controls (adjust/update) Feedback - AAR’s TSP-28

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TROOP LEADING PROCEDURES - SUPERVISE AND REFINE THE PLAN WHILE YOU ARE DOING THIS TSP-29 DO THIS SUPERVISE AND EVALUATE

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‘Risk management is the Army’s principal risk-reduction process to protect the force. Our goal is to make risk management a routine part of planning and executing operational missions.’ Chief of Staff, Army, July 1995 TSP--30

Slide 51:

REVIEW Small Unit Risk Management Booklet

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RISK MANAGEMENT WORKSHEET 1. MSN/TASK : 2. DTG BEGIN : 3. DATE PREPARED: END : 4. PREPARED BY: 9. OVERALL RISK LEVEL AFTER CONTROLS ARE IMPLEMENTED (CIRCLE ONE): 5. HAZARDS 7. CONTROLS 11. HOW TO IMPLEMENT 12. HOW TO SUPERVISE 6. INITIAL RISK LEVEL 8. RESIDUAL RISK LEVEL RANK/LAST NAME/DUTY POSITION 10. RISK DECISION AUTHORITY: RANK/LAST NAME/DUTY POSITION LOW MODERATE HIGH EXTREMELY HIGH C O N T R O L S E F F E C T I V E 13. PAGE ___ of ____ 1 B-8

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RISK MANAGEMENT WORKSHEET 1. MSN/TASK : 2. DTG BEGIN : 3. DATE PREPARED: END : 4. PREPARED BY: 9. OVERALL RISK LEVEL AFTER CONTROLS ARE IMPLEMENTED (CIRCLE ONE): 5. HAZARDS 7. CONTROLS 11. HOW TO IMPLEMENT 12. HOW TO SUPERVISE 6. INITIAL RISK LEVEL 8. RESIDUAL RISK LEVEL RANK/LAST NAME/DUTY POSITION 10. RISK DECISION AUTHORITY: RANK/LAST NAME/DUTY POSITION LOW MODERATE HIGH EXTREMELY HIGH C O N T R O L S E F F E C T I V E 13. PAGE ___ of __2__ 1 SOLUTION - SCENARIO 1 SAMPLE CPT BRADLEY, COMMANDER Enemy obstacles H M Attach Engineer Sqd to the plt OPORD Direct Sprv Develop obstacle reduction Unit TACSOP Cont Sprv plan OPORD Eng Handbook Rehearse obstacle reduction Unit TACSOP Cont Sprv techniques FM 5-34 Eng Handbook Adverse environmental conditions E Adjust SP time to allow for adverse H OPORD Direct Sprv - cold, rain/snow weather conditions Proper protective gear worn Unit TACSOP PCC/PCI Brief techniques for cold weather Unit TACSOP Buddy Sys injury recognition and administering Soldiers Man Spot check first aid. FM 21-11 - limited visibility (night, snow/rain) Use NVD’s Unit TACSOP PCC/PCI OPORD Rehearse movement techniques OPORD Cont sprv Recon the route Unit TACSOP Cont sprv OPORD Adjust movement interval to meet OPORD Cont sprv existing conditions Execute Attack ARTEP 7-8-MTP (7-3/4-1100) 2LT Eager 1st Plt Ldr Co. B 2 MAR 97 021500MAR97 050600MAR97

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RISK MANAGEMENT WORKSHEET PAGE _2_ of ___2_ 5. HAZARDS 7. CONTROLS 11. HOW TO IMPLEMENT 12. HOW TO SUPERVISE 6. INITIAL RISK LEVEL 8. RESIDUAL RISK LEVEL C O N T R O L S E F F E C T I V E 13. SOLUTION-SCENARIO 1 SAMPLE Inexperienced soldiers E Buddy team experienced soldiers H Battle roster Cont Sprv with inexperienced - Terrain (cliffs, ravines, open areas) Use climbing ropes TC 90-6-1 Cont Sprv Use rope bridges Mountaineering Bypass Cross at night OPORD Spot rpt Use smoke Unit TACSOP Cont Sprv Practice techniques Verbal/Rehearse Direct Sprv Unit TACSOP Cont Sprv - Misidentification of friendly vs. threat Use visual recognition markings Unit TACSOP Cont Sprv personnel and equipment Ranger Hndbk Squad leader initiates fires OPORD Cont Sprv Conduct opportunity training on ID Verbal Buddy Sys - Unfamiliar with new TACSOP Drill procedures that apply to mission Rehearse/brief Direct Sprv

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Thank you for your attention.

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