Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG)

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ヒラギノ角ゴ Pro W3:

April 14, 2010 Presented by: Mark Robertson

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2 Summary (Points of View) MANIFEST Value Line S&P Morningstar Return Forecast 5.8% ($125.54) 6% [2] ($103.64) -44.3% (1-Year price target = $87) Quality 83.5 Financial Strength 98 (No Debt) B++ A Growth Forecast 13.3% 18.5% (per sh) 15% (Thru 2015) [9%-->2024, 3%] 12% Profitability 7.4% (Net) 7.3% (Net) 7.5% [2010] ~6.0% (14% Oper Margins) Valuation 24.0x 24.0x 28.8x ($118.50) 26.2x ($108.00) Overall Rating Hold (84) Sell (2-Stars) [1] Hold (3-Stars) StockCharts RSI = 79.7 PnF Sentiment: “Bullish” (Price Objective: $191) CASPI = 90.9% April 14, 2010 [1] Strong SELL recommendation one year ago. [2] – Low VL 3-5 Year Forecast

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3 Sales Growth & 5-Year Forecast 13-14% sales growth seems reasonable based on ACE, S&P, VL and this visual analysis ... focusing on [2Actual/2Forecast] horizon.

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4 % Net Margin Profitability ‘Report Card’ and Forecast … Restaurant (Casual) industry average net margin = 4.7%

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5 Valuation Characteristic and Trend ... P/E Ratio History & Forecast

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6 [Modified] Preferred Procedure Sales (Trailing 12-Mo) 1558 X Net Margin (%) 8.7% / Shares (M) 32.9 Earnings Per Share $4.12 X P/E Ratio 30.5x Stock Price (4/14/2010) $125.54 Income Statement (4/14/2010) Income Statement (4/14/2015) Sales 2935 X Net Margin (%) 7.4% / Shares (M) 31.0 Earnings Per Share $7.00 X P/E Ratio (Proj Avg) 24.0x Stock Price $168.00 @ 13.5% 6.0% + 0.0% (Ann. Yield) 6.0% = Projected Annual Return (PAR)

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8 Technical Analysis (3-Year Profile)

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9 “Rhino Vulnerability” Ownership Institutional 67.4% Retail 32.6% Insiders 78% 32.7% 26.0%