LCA

“Life Cycle Assessments of Wind Energy and Other Renewables”… :

“Life Cycle Assessments of Wind Energy and Other Renewables”… Gregory A. Norris KSU 5 January 2006

Motivating Questions:

Motivating Questions Which is better (from an environmental point of view): Wind or Photovoltaics? Why? How so? Big (utility-scale) wind vs. small (local) wind What are priorities for improving either? How much better is wind than coal?

“What are the True Costs of Energy Systems”?:

“ What are the True Costs of Energy Systems”?

Impacts to Include::

Impacts to Include:

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Environment Social Economic

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Environment Pollutants & wastes  Human Health Pollutants & wastes  Ecosystem Health Resource use / Resource depletion

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Environment Pollutants & wastes  Human Health Respiratory Organics Carcinogens Particulates Climate Change Radiation Ozone Layer depletion Pollutants & wastes  Ecosystem Health Eco-toxicity Acidification Eutrophication Land use Resource use / Resource depletion Mineral resources Fossil fuels

“What are the True Costs of Energy Systems”?:

“ What are the True Costs of Energy Systems”?

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Value of a human life:

“What are the ‘True Costs’ of Energy Systems”?:

“ What are the ‘True Costs’ of Energy Systems”?

Outline:

Outline Method 1: Life Cycle Assessment Method 2: Risk / Damage Assessment LCA+RA Example: Weatherization LCA Examples: Wind Energy Photovoltaic Electricity Coal vs. wind

Method 1: Life Cycle Assessment:

Method 1: Life Cycle Assessment Product life cycles, and their total system-wide impacts Environment (Economic and Social) “Cradle to Grave” Quantitative Data-intensive Standardized (ISO) Becoming Global

LCA Defined ISO 14040 (‘97):

LCA Defined ISO 14040 (‘97) Goal & Scope Definition Inventory Analysis Impact Assessment Life Cycle Assessment Framework Interpretation Direct Applications: * Product Development & Improvement * Strategic planning * Public policy making * Marketing * Other

Life Cycle Inventory Analysis:

Life Cycle Inventory Analysis Releases to environment Extractions from environment

Life Cycle Impact Assessment:

Life Cycle Impact Assessment “What do all these flows mean?” Prototype: Global Warming Potentials Other Common Impact Categories Ozone Depletion Acidification Eutrophication Smog Formation Human Toxicity / Health Eco Toxicity

Risk Analysis:

Risk Analysis Risk Assessment Risk Characterization Risk Communication Risk Management Policy Relating to Risk

Exposure & Health Assessment::

Exposure & Health Assessment: Emissions Concentrations Exposures Health Effects Atmospheric fate & transport Census Data, GIS Dose-response via Epi-studies

Aggregating Health Impacts:

Aggregating Health Impacts DALY = Disability-Adjusted Life-Year Mortality  life-years lost Morbidity  years lived at lower quality Way to combine mortality & morbidity impacts into a single measure of effective life-years lost World Health Organization

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Wx Example: Methods Summary Health Air Climate $ Energy Modeling Life Cycle Assessment Exposure & Health Assessment Damage Assessment Health/Wealth relationship (Keeney 1997)

Wx Scenarios:

Wx Scenarios New and existing homes meet IECC2000 by increasing insulation Loan program for financing the upfront cost of insulation 2.5% interest rate 20 years maximum loan term Loan payments=energy savings until paid in full 2% annual participation rate for existing homes 58% of new SFH; 81% of existing homes will participate

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End-use energy savings and health outcomes by State Energy savings Premature deaths avoided Source: Nishioka et al. 2002. 10-year horizon: All new SF homes from 1999 standard practice to IECC 2000.

Results for PM Pathway:

Results for PM Pathway Health benefits of 1 year of energy savings for 1 year’s housing cohort: 7 fewer fatalities 200 fewer asthma attacks 3000 fewer restricted activity days Health benefits of 50-year measure life, for 1 year’s housing cohort: 350 fewer fatalities 10K fewer asthma attacks 150K fewer restricted activity days 70 DALYs 3500 DALYs

Results for GHG Pathway:

Results for GHG Pathway Tol (1999): FUND model Climate-related pathways considered: Heat and cold-related illnesses & deaths Vector-borne diseases (e.g., malaria) Infectious diseases due to sea-level rise via population displacement, infrastructure Psychological disorders via sea-level rise

Results for GHG Pathway:

Results for GHG Pathway Health benefits of 1 year of energy savings for 1 year’s housing cohort: 20 fewer fatalities 400 fewer DALYs Health benefits of 50-year measure life, for 1 year’s housing cohort: 1000 fewer fatalities 20K fewer DALYs

Results via Financial Savings:

Results via Financial Savings Source: Keeney 1997

Results via Financial Savings:

Results via Financial Savings Conservative assumption: Net zero annual economic impact until cost of insulation measures paid for by energy savings, with 2.5% interest rate Health benefits of 50-year measure life, for 1 year’s housing cohort: 600 fewer fatalities 7K fewer DALYs

Summary: Reduced Mortality via Single-Year Cohort:

Summary: Reduced Mortality via Single-Year Cohort

Outline:

Outline Method 1: Life Cycle Assessment Method 2: Risk / Damage Assessment LCA+RA Example: Weatherization LCA Examples: Wind Energy Photovoltaic Electricity Coal vs. wind

Scope: 800 kW Utility Wind:

Scope: 800 kW Utility Wind Construction and operation of wind power with necessary change of gear oil Capacity factor: 20% Gear oil changed every second year Fixed parts lifetime: 40 years Moving parts lifetime: 20 years Efficiency: 25% Wind conditions: Average European

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800 kW Utility Wind

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800 kW Utility Wind: Inputs to Turbine Production

Scope: 800 kW Turbine Model:

Scope: 800 kW Turbine Model Rotor, nacelle, electric parts, and their disposal Energy for assembling/fabrication and transport Connection to the grid … Total of 1561 unit processes in system, plus loops

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800 kW Utility Wind Turbine Production Supply Chain: Process contributions to total Human Health Impacts

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800 kW Utility Wind Turbine Production Supply Chain: Process contributions to total Ecosystem Impacts

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Small-Scale Wind

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Utility-scale wind (2 MW, offshore)

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Utility wind (offshore) vs. Small-Scale Wind

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Utility wind vs. Utility PV

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Environment Pollutants & wastes  Human Health Pollutants & wastes  Ecosystem Health Resource use / Resource depletion

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Utility wind vs. Utility PV

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Utility coal vs. Utility wind

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Utility coal vs. Utility wind