Conflict Presentation 2 - 2002

Presentation on Conflict : 

Presentation on Conflict Umair Haider Class:8c

SUMMARY OF SOCIAL SCIENCE TEAM EFFORT ON CONFLICT ANALYSES : 

SUMMARY OF SOCIAL SCIENCE TEAM EFFORT ON CONFLICT ANALYSES Knowledge Management for SSN Web-site search and links Bank-wide web search/links Mining sector conflicts Water sector conflicts Original publications Summaries/Overheads Training seminars Analytical implications for SU SA focus on benefits sharing Social risk analyses for targeting poverty interventions Dynamic analyses of stakeholder groups Re-focus on social mobilization/social capital and social identity A slide presentation by Ayse Kudat, with support of Bulent Ozbilgin and Cem Gelgin

Slide 3: 

Global Trends in Violent Conflict 1946-1999 Gurr, et al. Peace and Conflict, 2001

Slide 4: 

Poor and non-democratic states are expected to experience serious warfare in the future. Global Warfare by Level of Societal Capacity, 1946-1999

Peace and Conflict : 

Peace and Conflict Peace-Building Capacity : The indicator of peace-building capacity summarizes the six specific indicators which is used to rank countries within each region. Red and yellow icons on the six specific indicators are evidence of problems whereas green icons signal a capacity for managing conflict. Armed Conflict Indicator: The icons are based on information on armed conflicts being fought in 1999-2000. A red icon highlights countries with a medium to high magnitude of armed political or ethnic conflict; a yellow icon identifies countries with either a low level of armed conflict in 1999-2000 or an armed conflict that ended between 1996 and 1999. A green icon flags countries that have had no armed conflict between 1996 and 2000. Western Democracies and Japan

Peace and Conflict : 

Self-Determination: The icons take into account the success or failure of governments in settling conflicts from 1980 through 2000.Red icons signify countries challenged by armed conflicts over self-determination in 2000. Yellow icons flag countries with one of these two patterns: either (a) non-violent self-determination movements in 2000 but no track record of accommodating such movements in the past 20 years; or (b) violent self-determination movements in 2000 and a track record of accommodating other such movements in the past 20 years. Green icons signify countries that have successfully managed one or more self-determination conflicts since 1980. Democracy, Transitional Regimes, and Autocracy. The icons show the nature of a country’s political institutions in 2000. Red icons represent autocratic regimes. Yellow icons are countries with governments in the transitional zone between autocracy and democracy. Green icons are full democracies. Latin America and the Caribbean Peace and Conflict

Peace and Conflict : 

East, South, and Central Asia Capacity for Peace-Building: The Durability of Political Institutions The icons take into account the maturity of a country’s system of government. Red icons highlight countries whose political institutions in 2000 were established between 1995 and 1999. Yellow icons register countries whose polities were established during the 1985-94 decade. Green icons are used for countries whose polities were established before 1985. Capacity for Peace-Building: Societal Resources The governments of rich societies are better able to maintain peace and security than are governments of poor societies. An indicator of societal energy consumption per capita (averaged over the last half-century) is used to rank countries on this indicator. Red icons signify countries in the lowest quintile. Yellow icons flag countries in the second and third quintiles, green icons identify countries in the top 40% in energy consumption. Peace and Conflict

Peace and Conflict : 

North Africa and Middle East Good and Bad Neighborhoods: Ten politically relevant “neighborhoods” are defined: West Africa, North Africa, East Africa, South Africa, Middle East, South Asia, East Asia, South America, Central America, and Europe/North America. Countries with green icons are in regions with relatively low armed conflict and mostly democratic governments. Countries with red icons are in “neighborhoods” with high armed conflict and many transitional regimes. Countries with yellow icons are in regions with middling armed conflict and mostly autocratic regimes. Peace and Conflict

Peace and Conflict : 

Socialist Bloc and Successor State Peace and Conflict Peace and Conflict – 2001 Gurr, Marshall, Khosla.

Slide 10: 

What is conflict? When does it escalate into armed conflict?

Definitions of social conflict : 

Definitions of social conflict Social conflict is a struggle over values or claims to status, power, and scarce resources The aims of the conflict groups are not only to gain the desired values, but also to neutralize, injure, or eliminate rivals. Social conflict encompasses a broad range of social phenomena: class, racial, religious, and communal conflicts; riots, rebellions, revolutions; strikes and civil disorders; marches, demonstrations, protest gatherings. Source: Anthony Oberschall. Theories of Social Conflict. Annual Reviews Sociology, 1978, 4:291-315.

Theory of Social Conflict : 

Theory of Social Conflict A comprehensive theory of social conflict encompasses: The structural sources of social conflict, relying on stratification, social change, and macro-sociological theories. Conflict-group formation and the mobilization for collective action of challenging groups and their targets. For this topic, theories of collective action, social capital, recruitment, participation, commitment, and internal structure are useful. The dynamics of conflict: processes of interaction between conflict groups; the forms of conflict; its magnitude, scope, and duration; escalation and de-escalation; conflict regulation and resolution; conflict outcomes.

Slide 13: 

Communication failure Leadership Personality Value differences Cultural differences Ethnic differences Civilization Goal differences Technology Differences Military built-up There are numerous causes of conflict at all levels Lack of cooperation External support Group cohesion Economic competition Military competition Competition over natural resources such as water, forests, oil, gems etc.

Conditions that encourage/discourage conflict : 

Conditions that encourage/discourage conflict Periods of rapidly expanding opportunities followed by slowdown (e.g. US civil rights) Ambiguity about relative power (Vietnam war) Status inconsistency or rank dis-equilibrium Weakening normative consensus Zero-sum thinking Close communication Leader perception of deprivation Consensus about norms Lack of information about Others’ attainment Physical and psychological segregation Existence of strict status systems Reality or myth of social mobility Physical and social barriers to communication Removal of actual or potential leadership from the dissident groups

Conflict and Change : 

Conflict and Change Conflict inherent/latent Situations that it turns into armed conflict are rare Conflict is not always and necessarily destructive: Rather, it promotes Change Unity Reconciliation,

Levels of Conflict/Strategies for Resolution : 

Interpersonal Inter-group Inter-organizational Inter-State Two party Multi-party Contending/Imposing Yielding Problem Solving Combination Levels of Conflict/Strategies for Resolution

LESSONS LEARNED FROM SOCIAL SCIENCE LITERATURE : 

Social and political factors have greater value in predicting inter-state conflict (Huntington 1993) Social mobilization, social capital, social cohesiveness and collective action are among the most important factors in armed conflict onset and escalation (Benson and Kugler 1998) It is not static situations or even long lasting poverty that cause conflicts to escalate but rather changes in the distribution systems Changes in power parity Changes in access to resources Changes in internal and external alliances External interventions (“assistance”) appear to have adverse impacts on escalation (Brecher 1982; superpower involvement -, UN +) Resource scarcity and benefits stream sharing are key issues LESSONS LEARNED FROM SOCIAL SCIENCE LITERATURE

LESSONS LEARNED FROM SOCIAL SCIENCE LITERATURE : 

LESSONS LEARNED FROM SOCIAL SCIENCE LITERATURE Strong positive relationship between economic inequality and political conflict is challenged (Lichback 1989) Extreme inequality of land distribution leads to political instability only under specific extreme conditions (Russett 1989) Political implications of inequality varies from impoverished to affluent nations (Sigelman and Simpson, 1989) Inequality and conflict relationship is curvilinear (Zimmerman 1989) Understanding conflict escalation requires a multi-disciplinary approach (Singer and Small 1994) Social and cultural variables better predict internal conflicts than economic variables Group perceptions matter; relative deprivation is an important element of conflict. Such deprivation is felt more acutely with respect to political power and social prestige than income

What new activities can the ECA/Social Unit focus on? : 

What new activities can the ECA/Social Unit focus on? Initiation of country watch based on dynamic social risks/conflict propensity analyses Systematic incorporation of social risk analyses into PRSP; considering conflict reduction strategies (CRS) for countries with high propensity for conflict Complement/strengthen DEC’s work for ECA countries Develop special capacity within ECA for conflict escalation and prolongation issues Provide broader learning opportunities for SU staff to strengthen their analytical capacity for conflict analyses

What new activities can the ECA/Social Unit focus on? (cont’d) : 

Concentrate emphasis on local capacity building for conflict analyses (SSN) and theory of conflict prevention practice Give CA water conflicts renewed operational focus; help integrate conflict analyses to country water sector strategy work For guarantee operations dealing with renewable energy, a new emphasis on benefits sharing Complement analyses of “vulnerable groups” with “opposition” (rebellion groups); introduce less static concepts to social group analyses to include social mobilization of opposition, of cultural,ethnic and other cohesive groups; Strengthen emphasis on accountability with “effective democracy” building Better bridge social stability, inter-group trust and locally negotiated outcomes (trust building with user associations, etc.,) What new activities can the ECA/Social Unit focus on? (cont’d)

What new activities can the ECA/Social Unit focus on? (cont’d) : 

Re-evaluate social dynamics of “border” issues and ethnicity and follow up on earlier work carried out by the SU for the Balkans and Central Asia Re-assess role of cultural factors, especially religion, in social realities of ECA/CA countries for PRSP and CAS work Start a new generation of SAs that better focus on building social capital, trust, social conflict (Follow up on Kosova work, engage in proposed Tadjikistan agr, Azerbaijan water sector) What new activities can the ECA/Social Unit focus on? (cont’d)

Conflict Prevention : 

Conflict Prevention Benefits Stream Sharing Better analyses of benefits sharing: Who gets the rents, how equitable? How likely to increase conflict? Better understanding of external interference Current private sector practice: share benefits from natural resource extraction Local focus: omni-present government as assumed by WB versus local Ensure local ownership and trust World Bank involvement possible through MIGA guarantees Analyses Social risk reduction does not mean poverty reduction Stagnant versus dynamic factors needs analysis Effective democracies Social capital and social mobilization CAS/PRSP: Culture, power, social dynamics, implications of these

Modern sociological theory identifies two broad categories of conflict : 

Modern sociological theory identifies two broad categories of conflict Endogeneous Conflict: Sources of change are from within a society Inherent possibilities of change (Sorokin) Conflict over the distribution of desirables-- wealth, power and prestige within a society (Marx, Mosca, Mills) Conflict of Values (cumulative effects of innovation, technological revolution, sexual revolution, environmental crisis) Conflict of authority between order givers and takers (Dahrendorf) Conflict between the individual and society (Thomas) Exogeneous Conflict: Sources of change are between systems Wars (no comprehensive theory of war as a social phenomena) Cultural invasion (westernization, modernization, media) Conflict of Ideology (fundamentalism, capitalism)

APPROACHES TO CONFLICT ANALYSES : 

APPROACHES TO CONFLICT ANALYSES There are two distinct traditions of conflict theory in the classical works: The power relations tradition of political philosophy The tradition of competitive struggle in classical economics. Sociological conflict theory is largely a synthesis of these traditions with primary focus on the unequal distribution of rewards in society (Marx, Mills, Dahrendorf, Coser)

Major Proposition of Conflict Theories : 

Major Proposition of Conflict Theories Society is not a system in equilibrium but a nebulous structure of imperfectly coordinated elements Change and conflict are continuous and normal; inherent predilections to change vary in scope, nature, intensity and degree Every society experiences at every moment social conflict Every element in a society contributes to its change Every society rests on constrain of some of its members by others Social universe is the setting within which the conflict of life are acted out

VIOLENCE : 

VIOLENCE Direct violence --killing and beating--happens in interpersonal and inter-group situation The capacity for violence is institutionalized in prison systems, concentration camps, military forces and militia Structural violence--poverty, hunger,repression and social alienation--is associated with uneven life chances and is built into most society Oppression and discrimination are symptoms of structural violence Absence of direct violence is no guarantee for lack of structural violence; not all forms of structural violence leads of direct violence

PEACE RESEARCH : 

PEACE RESEARCH Peace research searches for knowledge to end violence and domination. It is trans-disciplinary. Normative goals of peace research are different from those of national security or war studies. Scientific approaches may focus on mathematical equations for predicting arms race (Richardson), simulations and cognitive analyses to understand crisis decision making , statistical analyses correlating outbreak of war with other factors. The aim is to establish causal relationships between all factors involved to project future trends. Interpretive analyses the meaning of peace is investigated in the context of wider social and cultural structures, relations and processes (Avruch, Foucault). Focus also on the meaning of peace from the perspective of the people who are affected by violence.

VIOLENCE : 

Cultural violence can be a source of other types of violence Symbols and events are used to create barriers among peoples Certain cultural elements are linked to direct and structural violence through their value justification and legitimization In the hierarchical social values of “modern” society some people are more valued than others VIOLENCE

EMPIRICALLY TESTED INDICATORS OF INTERNAL CONFLICT : 

EMPIRICALLY TESTED INDICATORS OF INTERNAL CONFLICT Power parity of state and the opposition (+) Level of democracy (tradition and institutions) (-) Tradition of violent conflict, social mobilization (+) Ideology differences (+) Inequity in the distribution of power and authority (+) Unequal access to renewable and non-renewable differences Duration of conflict and access to arms (+) Ethnic nature of disputes (+ likelihood of recurrence)

EMPRICALLY TESTED INDICATORS OF EXTERNAL CONFLICT : 

EMPRICALLY TESTED INDICATORS OF EXTERNAL CONFLICT Cultural/civilization differences Economic “regionalism” (consolidating “civilization blocks”) Demographic factors ---population density (-), population growth (+) Military expenditures (+) Power parity (+) Alliances between states (-) Alliances between opposition and support to opposition from external group (+) Economic interdependence and terms of trade (-), high debt rate (-) Effective resource (natural resources, energy) utilization (-) Multiple border relationships (+)

Interstate Conflict : 

Time & Magnitude of War Based on 315 wars that ended between 1820-1952, containing some 780 pairs of opposed belligerents, several key findings emerged. Low probability for most conflicts leading to war All the wars ongoing in any year, 24 percent will end in that year. High death rate tends to shorten wars and accelerate peacemaking. Smaller wars are very much more common than larger ones. Wars appear to arise independently, but to spread contagiously, through alliance structures, to neighbors, and otherwise. David Wilkinson ‘Deadly Quarrels – Lewis F. Richardson and the Statistical Study of War’ Interstate Conflict

INTERSTATE CONFLICT : 

INTERSTATE CONFLICT Wars tend to be simple rather than complex Wars with more participants are less frequent Wars with more belligerent pairs are less frequent than wars with few belligerent pairs The least complex war (one to one) is the most common type There are nonetheless a few wars that involve many fighting pairs which tend to be unusually long and unusually bloody.

INTERSTATE CONFLICT : 

INTERSTATE CONFLICT Economic causes of war are frequent but of many types War today may be the price of the transition to prosperity and peace tomorrow “Militant ideology” is a cause of war. ‘Ideological disarmament’ is tied to peacemaking The propensity of any two groups to fight increases as social differences between them (in language, religion, race, and cultural style) increase

Conflict Management: Long and Short Term Issues : 

Conflict Management: Long and Short Term Issues Major issue: Should one focus on short term negotiations to end conflict or remove deeper causes (Ross and Rothman 1999) Short term negotiations= problem-solving exercise to end conflict sooner than later. Assume deeper causes cannot be addressed in the presence of violence (Starr 1999) “Dialoguists”=building understanding, finding deep-rooted causes and developing paradigmatic shifts (Tidwell 1998; Saunders 1999) Certain defined patterns of escalation are more supportive of mediation than others (Simon 1999) Theories of practice of ethnic conflict resolution differ in the link that they conceptualize between an initiative’s specific activities and the settlement of the wider conflict (Bloomfield 1997)

Conflict Management: Long and Short Term Issues : 

Both short term solutions and long term dialogue can fail as was the case in Tadjikistan (Zartman 2001) “Numberless” efforts in Middle East Peace process also fell victim to inability to transfer official efforts onto the popular level (Saunders 1999) Dialogue and negotiation success depends on process which is difficult to transfer downward to civil society; the process is an individual experience and not transferable Continued conflict makes the impact of both negotiation and dialogue more difficult (outside impacts the inside when the expectation is for the inside to affect the outside) Conflict Management: Long and Short Term Issues

Slide 40: 

“The Clash of Civilizations?” Huntington argues that “... the fundamental source of conflict in this new world will not be primarily ideological or primarily economic. The great divisions among humankind and the dominating source of conflict will be cultural.” A civilization is a cultural entity. Villages, regions, ethic groups, nationalities, religious groups, all have distinct cultures at different levels of cultural heterogeneity. A civilization is the highest cultural grouping of people and the broadest level of cultural identity people have short of that which distinguishes humans from other species. Civilizations are dynamic; they rise and fall, they divide and merge. In the future, the world will be shaped in large measure by the interactions among major civilizations: Western, Confucian, Islamic, Japanese, Hindu, Slavic-Orthodox, Latin American and possibly African. Source: Samuel P. Huntington. The Clash of Civilizations? Foreign Affairs. Summer 1993.

Slide 41: 

Reasons why conflict will occur along fault lines separating civilizations Differences among civilizations are not only real; they are basic Interactions between people of several civilizations are increasing as does awareness of difference among civilizations The process of economic modernization and social change throughout the world are separating people from longstanding local identities. The growth of civilization-consciousness is enhanced by the dual role of the West. On one hand, the West is at a peak of power. At the same time, however and perhaps as a result, a return to the roots phenomenon is occurring among the non-Western civilizations. Cultural characteristics and differences are less mutable and hence less easily compromised and resolved than political and economic ones. Even more than ethnicity, religion discriminates sharply and exclusively among people. Economic regionalism is increasing and reinforcing civilization consciousness. Source: Samuel P. Huntington. The Clash of Civilizations? Foreign Affairs. Summer 1993.

Slide 42: 

Conflict between civilizations will supplant ideological and other forms of conflict as the dominant global form of conflict International relations, historically a game played out within Western civilization, will increasingly be de-Westernized and become a game in which non-Western civilizations are actors and not simply objects Successful political, security and economic international institutions are more likely to develop within civilizations than across civilizations Conflicts between groups in different civilizations will be more frequent, more sustained and more violent than conflicts between groups in the same civilization Violent conflict between groups in different civilizations are the most likely and most dangerous source of escalation that could lead to global wars. What will happen???????????? Source: Samuel P. Huntington. The Clash of Civilizations? Foreign Affairs. Summer 1993.

Slide 43: 

In the short term it is clearly in the interest of the West to promote greater cooperation and unity within its own civilization, particularly between its European and North American components To incorporate into the West societies in Eastern Europe and Latin America whose cultures are close to those of the West To promote and maintain cooperative relations with Russia and Japan To prevent escalation of local inter-civilization conflicts into major inter-civilization wars; to limit the expansion of the military strength of Confucian and Islamic states To moderate the reduction of Western military capabilities and maintain military superiority in East and Southwest Asia To exploit differences and conflicts among Confucian and Islamic states and to support other civilizations groups sympathetic to Western values and interests To strengthen international institutions that reflect and legitimate Western interests and values and to promote the involvement of non-Western states in those institutions. What can be done ???????????? Source: Samuel P. Huntington. The Clash of Civilizations? Foreign Affairs. Summer 1993.

Power Parity, Democracy, and the Severity of Internal Violence : 

Power Parity, Democracy, and the Severity of Internal Violence Relative parity of resources between the government and the opposition lead to higher levels of violence Democratic countries with highly competitive and participatory institutions are able to mitigate violent conflict within their borders With domestic politics, as with international politics, the escalation of conflict to violent conflict is rare The severity of violence decreases as the level of political efficiency of the government rises. Faced with violent opposition, an effective government responds in kind As the capabilities of potential rebels increase compared to those of the government, the severity of violence increases Source: Michelle Benson and Jacek Kugler. Power Parity, Democracy, and the Severity of Internal Violence. Journal of Conflict Resolution, Vol. 42 No. 2, April 1998.

Power Parity, Democracy, and the Severity of Internal Violence : 

External aid is most useful in societies with weak political systems (eg Haiti), where limited interventions are successful, but it will have little effect in conflicts within organized societies (e.g. Vietnam, Afghanistan), where the combatants are fully mobilized Democracy by itself is not significant in decreasing conflict Super-democracies can reduce the levels of internal domestic violence Democracies that are not fully institutionalized fare no better than autocratic regimes Power Parity, Democracy, and the Severity of Internal Violence

Power Parity, Democracy, and the Severity of Internal Violence : 

Power Parity, Democracy, and the Severity of Internal Violence Politically efficient governments are more likely to avert internal challenges Early, effective interventions is an effective means to avoid internal violence This option is not available to ineffective governments that can most easily be challenged even by inefficient opponents Ineffective democracies struggling for reform are only as likely as authoritarian governments of equivalent levels of efficiency to repulse challenges by opponents Interventions in support of inefficient democratic systems might be a viable option (Haiti) Interventions to alter political structures that are already efficient (Tienanmen Square) might be counterproductive Source: Michelle Benson and Jacek Kugler. Power Parity, Democracy, and the Severity of Internal Violence. Journal of Conflict Resolution, Vol. 42 No. 2, April 1998.

Slide 47: 

Severity of violence within a nation at a certain time (+) Relative political extraction (-) Relative political extraction of the opposition (+) Time Index (+): Level of violence increases as weapons improve Level of democracy (not significant, by itself) High level of democracy (-) Joint effect of relative political extraction and democracy (-) Empirical Factors and Their Effects in Determining Severity of Internal Violence Source: Michelle Benson and Jacek Kugler. Power Parity, Democracy, and the Severity of Internal Violence. Journal of Conflict Resolution, Vol. 42 No. 2, April 1998.

Slide 48: 

Empirical variables used in determining conflict escalation Power parity (-) Relative power of the weaker state divided by the relative power of the stronger state Status quo evaluations in terms of alliance similarity to the dominant power (-) Joint democracy (-) Alliance of the state (-) Economic interdependence calculated relative to national income (-) Economic development (-) Source: William Reed. A Unified Statistical Model of Conflict Onset and Escalation. American Journal of Political Science, Vol. 44, No. 1. January 2000.

Slide 49: 

Empirical factors used in determining major power intervention in international conflicts Military Balance of Target versus Attacker (+) Level of Security Threat for Target of Threat (+) Military Balance of Major Power and Target versus Attacker Major Power Armed Conflict with Other States (-) Armed Conflict within Major Power (-) Military Ties between Major Power and Target of Threat (+) Common Adversary between Major Power and Target of Threat (+) Strategic Location of Target (+) Similarity of Regime between Major Power and Target of Threat (+) Prospects for Victory in Upcoming Election (-) Source: Paul K. Huth. Major Power Intervention in International Crises, 1918-1988. Journal of Conflict Resolution, Vol. 42 No. 6, December 1998. Sage Publications.

Slide 50: 

Conflicts at every level have significant common characteristics and dynamics; it makes sense to examine them together and comparatively. People get involved in conflicts because their interests or their values are challenged, or because their needs are not met. There are several basic human needs that are especially pertinent to conflict and conflict resolution: Recognition Development (and self-actualization) Security Identity Bonding, and finally Targets to project hate. Conflict is a natural and typical phenomenon in every type of human relationships, at every level Intra-personal, local, intra-state, inter-state, global Conflict resolution is a truly multidisciplinary field. It is an amalgam of psychology, philosophy, political science, sociology, anthropology, law etc.

Slide 51: 

Parties in such conflicts often block the satisfaction of each other's basic human needs. Minorities believe that their identity is not recognized, that they are given less opportunities for development, and that their culture (and sometimes their existence) is under threat. Majorities may also perceive minorities as a threat to their security, especially if the minority leaders cooperate with enemy countries. The leadership/ elites of both minorities and majorities, tend to be more fanatical, more biased than the average minority or majority member. Ethnic conflicts, especially those between ethnic minorities and majorities tend to be intractable. They can be settled for a certain period of time, but they can rarely be resolved. It is difficult to help deal constructively with polarized ethnic conflicts through external mediation. Outside support to groups prolong conflict.

Slide 52: 

Forms of Ethnic Conflict Termination Methods for eliminating differences Genocide Forced mass-population transfers Partition/Secession Integration/Assimilation Methods for managing differences Hegemonic control Arbitration Cantonization/federalization Consociationalism (power-sharing)

Slide 53: 

According to issues in contention 6 different typologies of conflicts According to adversary characteristics Self-perception Clarity of social boundary markers According to relationship of adversaries Number of adversaries Integration and interdependence Domination

Slide 54: 

According to the social system or context of which they are a part 6 ways in which conflicts vary (cont’d) According to the means by which they are conducted Degree of regulation Level of severity According to outcomes Who wins the struggle More integrated or more separated Renewed struggle or resolution

Slide 55: 

Paths to Conflict Termination Non-Negotiated Path Externally imposed settlement One-sided capitulation/suppression Convergence Settlement by implicit bargaining Withdrawal Extermination/expulsion Negotiated Path One-sided maximization approach Problem-solving approaches

Slide 56: 

Institutionalization of negotiation procedures Scale of negotiations (number of parties) Scope of negotiations (significance and number of issues considered) Isolation of negotiation sessions (which negotiation channels) Privacy (degree of confidentiality) Conflict Setting Issues in contention Relative importance of interests and values Timing Negotiation Characteristics may Vary

Slide 57: 

Conflict is more likely when there are demographic pressures, although this is unlikely to be the main reason for conflict Population growth pressures have a significant impact on the likelihood that the state could become involved in military conflict. Significant military capability might be necessary for population pressures to lead to conflict, and low technology countries are more subject to population pressures and conflict involvement than their more advanced peers. Advanced technology may mitigate some deleterious effects of high population growth. There is little or no evidence that such growth makes a state more likely to be the initiator of that conflict or make that conflict more likely to escalate to war. Overcrowding has a significant impact on state decision making. However, states do not engage in conflict in order to acquire new land to support the burgeoning population. Thus, there are substantial limits to the validity of extending overcrowding arguments to the context of interstate relations. Source: Jaroslav Tir & Paul F. Diehl. Demographic Pressure and Interstate Conflict: Linking Population Growth and Density to Militarized Disputes and Wars, 1930-89. Journal of Peace Research, vol. 35, no. 3, 1998. Sage Publications.

Slide 58: 

Empirical variables used in determining the relationship between population movements and conflict Population growth percentage change (+) Population density (+) Military expenditures (+) The level of development and resource usage as measured by energy consumption figures (-) Geographic opportunity as determined by the number of states who share international borders (+) Major or minor power status of countries (+) Source: Jaroslav Tir & Paul F. Diehl. Demographic Pressure and Interstate Conflict: Linking Population Growth and Density to Militarized Disputes and Wars, 1930-89. Journal of Peace Research, vol. 35, no. 3, 1998. Sage Publications.

Slide 59: 

Humanitarian emergencies are characterized by warfare, displacement, hunger, and disease Most literature uses geopolitical and ethnic approaches to explain the recent increase in complex humanitarian emergencies. Although relevant, these are incomplete in analyzing the factors that are pivotal in shaping and triggering conflicts in developing countries. Sources of emergencies are multiple: Stagnation and decline in real GDP A high ratio of military expenditures to national income A tradition of violent conflict High income inequality, and Slow growth in average food production Relative deprivation is crucial in escalation of humanitarian emergencies. People feel deprived of something they had but subsequently lost or when others have gained relative to them. Consequently, a short-term income reduction is more important than protracted income decline or stagnation. Relative deprivation spurs social discontent and sometimes anger, which provides motivation for potential collective violence. Source: Juha Auvinen, E. Wayne Nafziger. The Sources of Humanitarian Emergencies. Journal of Conflict Resolution, Vol. 43 No. 3, June 1999. Sage Publications.

Slide 60: 

Empirical Variables Used in Determining Sources of Human Emergencies* A composite indicator made up of battle deaths and refugees per population (+) Number of deaths from domestic violence (+) Inflation (+) Annual real GDP growth (-) GNP per capita (-) Annual growth of food production per capita (-) Gini index of income concentration (+) Military expenditures per GNP (+) Use of IMF credit as a percentage of GNP (-) Source: Juha Auvinen, E. Wayne Nafziger. The Sources of Humanitarian Emergencies. Journal of Conflict Resolution, Vol. 43 No. 3, June 1999. Sage Publications. *Data from 124 countries

Slide 61: 

Conditions under which major powers intervene in conflicts determine the outcome of the conflict Military intervention of major powers can have a decisive impact on the outcome of international crises involving other states The probability of military intervention by a major power will decrease: As the capacity of a threatened state to defend itself militarily increases As the severity of the threat of military attack against a target state increases If leaders of the major power are about to or have already committed large-scale military forces to another international dispute If leaders of the major power are about to or have already committed large-scale military forces to the suppression of domestic political opposition If the incumbent regime’s chances of victory in upcoming elections are quite favorable The probability of military intervention by a major power will increase: As the relative military strength of the coalition supporting the threatened state increases If the threatened state is of military-strategic value to the major power If the major power and threatened state share the same type of political system that differs from the regime of the challenger state Source: Paul K. Huth. Major Power Intervention in International Crises, 1918-1988. Journal of Conflict Resolution, Vol. 42 No. 6, December 1998. Sage Publications.

Different Approaches to Understanding Conflict: Why Men Rebel : 

Different Approaches to Understanding Conflict: Why Men Rebel People’s sense of their value plays a central role in the birth of violent conflict. The urge to rebel is strongly linked to a society’s perceived stock of values. If groups view economic, social or political value as a fixed sum, violent conflict can occur very easily. Although many values that determine a group or individual’s welfare (respect, wealth, attention from others) are inherently flexible and easily created, values such as political power exist in limited quantities. Values such as status can exert a powerful influence on value capability depending on whether groups in a society perceive them as a fixed sum or as the product of relationship. Economic value plays a critical role in determining people’s value capability. Men can be deprived of political influence and social status, but the lack minimum economic resources threatens their very existence. Ideological coherence, or a group’s belief and adherence to common norms governing social interaction, is a powerful factor in conflict. Source: Ted Robert Gurr. Why Men Rebel. Princeton, 1970.

Slide 63: 

A Causal Model of Determinants of Conflict Intensity of Relative Deprivation Intensity of Normative Justifications for Political violence Intensity of Utilitarian Justifications for Political Violence Balance of Dissident to Coercive Regime Control POTENTIAL FOR COLLECTIVE VIOLENCE (discontent) POTENTIAL FOR POLITICAL VIOLENCE (political discontent) MAGNITUDE OF POLITICAL VIOLENCE Scope of Relative Deprivation Scope of Justifications for Political violence Balance of dissident to Regime Institutional Support Secondary Variables Primary Variables Secondary Variables Societal Variables Source: Ted Robert Gurr. Why Men Rebel. Princeton, 1970. + + + + + + +

DEC (World Bank) Research on Conflict Propensity : 

DEC (World Bank) Research on Conflict Propensity Develop a set of analytical indicators that will facilitate the incorporation of conflict analysis in decision-making in allocation of World Bank funds Four sets of conflict indicators identified to measure the propensity of a country with respect to conflict: Identification of conflict-prone countries Conflict intensity indicators to assess the extent and escalation potential of ongoing conflicts Performance indicators to measure the likelihood of post-conflict countries’ successful peace-building and economic development Impact assessment tools to ensure that Bank programs do not exacerbate conflict These correspond to two broad categories of conflict determinants Underlying root causes such as historical and structural determinants Conflict-induced risks that pertain to post-conflict countries Source: Conflict Analysis & Conflict Indicators: A PCU-DECRG Collaborative Policy Research Project. August 2000.

Slide 65: 

Use a set of quantifiable indicators to estimate The probability of civil-war outbreak; and The probability of war recurrence for each country There is no simple approach to combine qualitative and quantitative methods Historical data not available for qualitative methods Integration of non-existing historical data into the dataset for simulation is not possible If Bank country teams code these, they may be largely influenced by the quantitative indicators in the dataset, creating problems in analysis Some indicators (degree of ethnic fragmentation, level of democracy, extent of national reconciliation) are reflections of qualitative variables DEC Research and Simulation Model is Limited to countries outside ECA Source: Conflict Analysis & Conflict Indicators: A PCU-DECRG Collaborative Policy Research Project. August 2000.

Slide 66: 

Core Set of Conflict Indicators Regional Comparisons, 1960-1998 Source: Conflict Analysis & Conflict Indicators: A PCU-DECRG Collaborative Policy Research Project. August 2000 Poverty/GDP Growth.

Slide 67: 

Country Classification by “At-Risk” Indicators Most Central Asian and Balkan countries not included in analysis There is potential for collaboration between Social Unit and DEC Source: Conflict Analysis & Conflict Indicators: A PCU-DECRG Collaborative Policy Research Project. August 2000.

Slide 68: 

Core Indicators for Conflict Analysis Source: Conflict Analysis & Conflict Indicators: A PCU-DECRG Collaborative Policy Research Project. August 2000.

Slide 69: 

Type of Analysis, Indicators, and Bank’s Instruments Source: Conflict Analysis & Conflict Indicators: A PCU-DECRG Collaborative Policy Research Project. August 2000.

Uses of DEC Simulation in Practice : 

Uses of DEC Simulation in Practice Analysis can be used to estimate the likelihood of conflict in a country, given variations in policy decisions and likely results Analysis can also be used in post-conflict reconstruction environment to assess the likelihood of the country falling back into conflict Majority of Central Asia, Eastern Europe and Baltic countries are not included in the research Need to adopt the research to specific conditions in these countries How can we decrease propensity for conflict? Pre-conflict policy Pre-conflict lending Include non-economic factors in PRSP Source: Conflict Analysis & Conflict Indicators: A PCU-DECRG Collaborative Policy Research Project. August 2000.

World Bank has been active in Post-Conflict Reconstruction : 

World Bank has been active in Post-Conflict Reconstruction The World Bank has increased its lending to post-conflict countries by more than 800 percent since 1980, with operations in every region and sector The Bank’s working presence can be critical in the early stages of post-conflict reconstruction, especially in external aid coordination Bank reconstruction has provided effective macroeconomic stabilization Bank has also provided strong and effective support for rebuilding physical infrastructure Although the Bank does not have a comparative advantage in demining Bank experience in restoring human and social capital has been mixed. In Bosnia, social sector work was supported but that seems to be an exception There is recent expansion of work into support for de-mobilization and the reintegration of ex-combatants into the society Effectiveness of Bank monitoring has been varied Source: Operations Evaluation Department (OED). World Bank. 1998.

OED recommended a number of steps to clarify Bank involvement in conflict : 

OED recommended a number of steps to clarify Bank involvement in conflict Clarify Bank Policy Transform existing framework into a firm policy Build on and Develop Comparative Strengths Leverage advantage in aid coordination and advisory services Pursue essential policies with greater balance and develop cost-effective strategies for education and health Use early ESW to improve social project design Refine Bank Practices Staffing of post-conflict country teams Allocate budget for monitoring and evaluation Move Toward Greater Flexibility in Programming and Design More “fluid” design than “blueprint” Rely more on APLs Promote Equitable Development Address emerging distributional imbalances BEFORE they turn into conflict Source: Operations Evaluation Department (OED). World Bank. 1998.

Slide 73: 

What else can the Bank do in Peace-building? Play a vital role by fostering conditions conducive to successful negotiations Promote trust and be sensitive to timing issues Bank staff could advise in negotiations Offer advice on development dimensions of peace accord options Bank staff could draw on previous peace-building experiences-KM Rehabilitation in Ethiopia, needs assessment and organizational response in Bosnia Bank activities could be politically realistic Recognize the importance of other facets of the post-conflict development such as reform of governance, justice etc. Include strengthening civil institutions in peace-building goals. Allocate adequate resources to ensure complete recovery especially for vulnerable groups Source: The Transition from War to Peace. Chapter 3: Peacebuilding Strategies. World Bank.

Environmental scarcity may create conflicts : 

Environmental scarcities are plausible causes of violent conflict Depletion and pollution of fresh water supplies Degradation and removal of forests Depletion of fisheries Degradation and loss of good agricultural land Greenhouse-induced climate change Stratospheric ozone depletion Populations in developing countries are already suffering from shortages of water, agricultural land, forests and fish Population growth and unequal distribution of resources also contribute to environmental conflict Frequency of this kind of conflict will probably jump sharply in the next decade as scarcities rapidly worsen. Environmental scarcity may create conflicts Source: Thomas F. Homer-Dixon. Environmental Scarcities and Violent Conflict: Evidence from Cases. International Security, Vol. 19, No. 1. Summer 1994.

Slide 75: 

Resource Capture Resource depletion and population growth cause unequal resource access Interaction of Sources of Environmental Scarcity Decrease in quality and quantity of renewable resources Population growth Unequal resource access Increased environmental scarcity Ecological Marginalization Unequal resource access and population growth cause resource degredation and depletion. Decrease in quality and quantity of renewable resources Population growth Unequal resource access Increased environmental scarcity Source: Thomas F. Homer-Dixon. Environmental Scarcities and Violent Conflict: Evidence from Cases. International Security, Vol. 19, No. 1. Summer 1994.

Inter-state versus Internal Conflicts due to Environmental Scarcity : 

Inter-state versus Internal Conflicts due to Environmental Scarcity Environmental scarcity causes large population movements, which in turn may cause group identity conflicts Contextual factors important in defining reasons of population movements Both “push” and “pull” factors are important in migration Migrants often need backing of a state before they can cause conflict Scarcities of renewable resources such as forests and croplands do not often cause resource wars between states States have fought more over non-renewable than renewable resources for two reasons Petroleum and mineral resources can be more directly converted into state power The countries that are most dependent on renewable resources also tend to be poor, lessening their capability for aggression The renewable resource most likely to stimulate inter-state resource war is WATER Riparian problems Huge dams are especially disruptive: relocation, clashes with local groups, ethnic minorities and vulnerable groups affected are commonplace Source: Thomas F. Homer-Dixon. Environmental Scarcities and Violent Conflict: Evidence from Cases. International Security, Vol. 19, No. 1. Summer 1994.

Environmental scarcity increases economic deprivation and disrupts key social institutions : 

Environmental scarcity increases economic deprivation and disrupts key social institutions Resource degradation and depletion often affect economic productivity in poor countries and contribute to deprivation Environmental scarcity, large population movements and economic decline appear to sharply weaken the capacity and legitimacy of state Environmental scarcity increases financial and political demands on governments Revenues to local and national governments decline Challengers to governments will have greater power if their grievances are articulated and actions are coordinated Factors that can influence both grievance and opportunity include the leadership and ideology of challenger groups Rapid growth of poor urban areas may have a double effect: People can communicate more easily; this may reinforce grievances and increase the power of challenger groups Source: Thomas F. Homer-Dixon. Environmental Scarcities and Violent Conflict: Evidence from Cases. International Security, Vol. 19, No. 1. Summer 1994.

Water and resource scarcity in Central Asia is already causing conflict : 

Water and resource scarcity in Central Asia is already causing conflict The Unit is in a unique position to provide assistance in resource-based conflict in Central Asian countries There is already a conflict on the use of water between Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan Uzbekistan is dependent on Turkmen water for a recent project (Karshi Pumping Cascade) Natural gas and oil extraction in Central Asian countries has been increasing Benefits sharing is likely to become more important as more resources are exploited

Creating Conditions for Peacemaking : 

Creating Conditions for Peacemaking Two hypothesis are at work: 1) until key conditions are met, competing groups are unlikely to make effective progress towards and agreements; and 2) the development of cooperation between small groups in local settings can produce changes which spill over and produce a shift in the larger conflict.

Slide 80: 

Yet, some conflicts cannot be resolved without the help of an intermediary, a third party. Parties' perceptions of each other and of the issues of the conflict are so biased, so limiting, that they cannot see mutually satisfactory, mutually beneficial, or integrative options, even when they have the desire to settle their differences. In such cases third parties can be most helpful. By bringing to the conflict their own knowledge and experience, their own perspective, and, of course, their own power and leverage, they make previously unconsidered options visible and feasible. Mediators may help the parties understand what makes them the enemy of each other: What social-economic-political conditions, what dynamics, what ideas and ideologies, what misperceptions... Mediators, intermediaries, and third parties are not really conflict resolvers. Third party involvement in conflicts It is the conflicting parties, the people or groups of people directly involved in a conflict, who are the true conflict resolvers.

Slide 81: 

A conflict can be ended: Through violence or war and by destroying the opponent; By surrender and capitulation; Through temporary de-intensification by deceiving the opponent. Yet, these are not regarded as conflict resolution. The conflict remains; it just loses its intensity. It is relatively easy to help resolve a conflict stemming from a clash of interests. It is more difficult to deal with a conflict that emanates from a clash of values. And it is even more difficult to handle a conflict in which at least one party's basic human needs are not satisfied. It is extremely difficult for the parties to the conflict, even with outside assistance, to find a way, a solution that would satisfy all of the above needs for both/all of them. A peaceful and mutually satisfactory way to end or significantly de-escalate a conflict. ‘Conflict resolution’ The need for enemies is usually satisfied through the intensification of conflict, not through its resolution

PEACE STRATEGY : 

PEACE STRATEGY Peace through morality. Peace (local and global) can be brought about by a moral appeal, through world public opinion, to leaders and peoples not to condone or practice violence, aggression, or war, but to shun and to denounce them. Peace through law. Peace can be made by signing international treaties and creating international laws that will regulate conduct and by resorting to international courts to solve disputes. Peace through negotiation. Peace can be maintain by frank discussion of differences, by open diplomacy, by international conferences and assemblies that will air grievances and, through candor and goodwill, arrive at a harmonious consensus. Peace through political reform. Peace can be established by setting up regimes of a nonaggressive type throughout the world: republics rather than monarchies. Peace through national liberation. Peace can be instituted only through the worldwide triumph of nationalism. David Wilkinson ‘Deadly Quarrels – Lewis F. Richardson and the Statistical Study of War’

PEACE STRATEGY : 

PEACE STRATEGY Peace through national liberation. Peace can be instituted only through the worldwide triumph of nationalism. Peace through prosperity. Peace requires the worldwide triumph of an economic order that will produce universal prosperity and thereby remove the incentive to fight. Peace through disarmament. Peace can be established by reducing and eventually eliminating weapons, bases, and armies. Peace through international organization. Peace can be established by creating a world political organization, perhaps even a constitutional world government resembling national governments to enforce order and promote progress throughout the world. Peace through power. Peace can be maintained by the peaceable accumulation of forces. David Wilkinson ‘Deadly Quarrels – Lewis F. Richardson and the Statistical Study of War’