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Seeing is Believing : 

Seeing is Believing Detailed Trade Calls Market Outlooks/Recaps News

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Detailed Trade Calls : 

Detailed Trade Calls Volatility to start this week has been extraordinarily high. A distinct interest in risk appetite has sent the currency market reeling; and most pairs have either revived aggressive trends or otherwise produced tentative breakouts in the fray. Obviously, these are not conditions to find range trades in. However, for the risk-defiant, USDJPY may offer a noteworthy setup. Why Would USDJPY Hold a Range?   Levels to Watch: Range Top: 97.00 (Pivot, SMA) Range Bottom: 94.25 (Fib, Range Low)   Risk appetite is testing the theory that markets can remain rational longer than one can remain solvent. Contradicting the acceleration in risk building through currency positions, we have seen relatively little from fundamentals. This makes it difficult to reconcile fundamentals and technicals. USDJPY has reduced exposure to the elusive oscillation of risk appetite; but it is still highly volatile. From the docket, the top risk is Friday’s NFP release.   Classical technicals offer up many levels to define price action; but volatility could wind up rendering these milestones immaterial. The fast pace of market activity over the past few active sessions is the most striking facet of USDJPY price action. Beyond that, it is still trying to play out a head-and-shoulders formation with an untimely rebound. Suggested Strategy   Short: Entry orders will be placed at 96.75 which falls within the hard range. Stop: An initial stop of 97.65 is wide enough for a modest buffer to volatility. To secure profit, move the stop on the second lot to breakeven when the first target hits. Target: The first objective is at 95.85 and the second target will be 94.75.

Market Outlooks : 

Market Outlooks USD/CHF Still Short, but Risks Starting to Rise… No change in the longer term bearish view in USD/CHF that has been place since early in the year, as the 5 wave fall from the Nov high at 1.2295 continues to argue that the bigger picture downside pattern is not “complete”, and with eventual declines back to the Dec low at 1.0375 and even below still favored. Note that risk may be starting to rise for a nearer term bottom, but there are no signs of a more important low. So for now, we would maintain the longer term bearish bias that has been in place since March 13th (then at 1.1900). Not much in the way of longer term support until the Dec low at 1.0375, while resistance is at the recently broken bullish trendline from Dec (currently at 1.0740/55).

Market Recaps : 

Market Recaps Aussie, Euro Surges vs. USD The dollar tumbled sharply against the Aussie, falling past the 0.80-handle for the first time since October. The greenback also struggled versus the euro, slipping to 1.4168 and the sterling, falling just shy of the 1.62-level. Crude oil extended gains, edging up past the $66 per barrel level while US equity bourses were relatively unchanged on the session. The economic reports released earlier in the session were mixed, with growth and manufacturing reports deteriorating while a key sentiment survey improved by better than estimates. The preliminary Q1 GDP revealed a larger than expected contraction in economic activity, posting a 5.7% decline compared with a 6.1% decline in the previous quarter. The core PCE prices held steady at 1.5%, while corporate profits reversed a steep 10.7% decline in the previous quarter to improve by 1.1%. The New York NAPM index improved in May to 361.6 from April at 356.0. Meanwhile, the Chicago PMI disappointed in May, falling to 34.9 and missing estimates for an improvement to 42.0 from 40.1 in April. The PMI employment component fell to 25.0 from 31.8, while new orders fell to 37.3 from 42.1.On an upbeat note, the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey beat forecasts for an improvement to 68.0 in May from 65.1 in April, with the final reading edging up to 68.7. The expectations component jumped to 69.4 versus 63.1 a month earlier, while the conditions index fell to 67.7 from 68.3.

News : 

News Growth improving and the U.S. Dollar Declining? The economic growth is improving tangibly in the United States and might accelerate in the final part of this year. Nevertheless, the U.S. dollar remains under pressure and more weakness is possible in the near future. The U.S. dollar to decline further The economy is on the move again in the United States. The housing market appears to be designing a bottom at current levels, industry’s output is increasing and consumer confidence is improving. In April, new home sales moved up 1,000 to 352,000 units from March’s 351,000. Inventories declined 13,000 month-on- month and are down 160,000 year-on-year and In would take 10.1 months to buy all the new homes in storage, down from 10.6 months in March and 12.4 months in January. In reality, the economic growth of the past ten years will not be repeated in the foreseeable future. However, improvements could be seeing in the final part of this year supported by the monetary and fiscal incentives. The process is challenging, but even a moderate growth would help mitigate the huge budget deficit, albeit an increase of inflation is inevitable.

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