Flowers 11 2009 MD

Transforming Wind PoweringAmerica for the next decade: 

Transforming Wind Powering America for the next decade Larry Flowers, NREL

2008 Was a Banner Year for Wind: 

2 2008 Was a Banner Year for Wind 9,500 MW installed in the US in the 12 month period from 1 April 2008 to 31 March 2009 Investment in wind projects in US grew from $700M in 2004 to $17B in 2008 ($48B worldwide) US surpassed Germany as the world leader in new installations, total wind capacity and annual output 35,000 jobs were added in wind industry in 2008, raising total to 85,000, compared to 82,000 for the coal industry (EIA).

2009 Shaping Up But New Turbine Orders and PPAs Lagging: 

3 2009 Shaping Up But New Turbine Orders and PPAs Lagging

10 States now in Gigawatt Club: 

10 States now in Gigawatt Club 4

Wind Power in Queues (MW): 

Wind Power in Queues (MW) Iowa 14,569 Minnesota 20,011 New Mexico 14,136 North Dakota 11,493 Penn. 3,391 South Dakota 30,112 Oklahoma 14,677 Illinois 16,284 Ohio 3,683 Kansas 13,191 Wisconsin 908 Michigan 2,518 WV 1,045 New York 8,000 VT 155 Total 311,155 MW MA 492 Montana 2,327 NJ 1416 Under 1000 MW 1,000 MW-8,000 MW Over 8,000 MW Missouri 2,050 IN 8,426 Maine 1,398 NH 396 RI 347 DE 450 MD 810 VA 820 Arkansas 210 Texas 63,504 Arizona 7,268 California 18,629 Colorado 16,602 Idaho 446 Nebraska 3,726 Nevada 3,913 Oregon 9,361 Utah 1,052 Washington 5,831 Wyoming 7,870 Source: AWEA

Slide6: 

6 But it’s a marathon, not a sprint

Average Non-GHG Damage from Coal Power in 2005 = 3.2 cents/kWh: 

Average Non-GHG Damage from Coal Power in 2005 = 3.2 cents/kWh 7 PLANTS WITH REGIONAL DAMAGES OVER 10 CENTS/KWH, NOT INCLUDING CLIMATE CHANGE

What does 20% Wind look likein the next decade?: 

What does 20% Wind look like in the next decade? Source: AWEA 20% Vision

Slide9: 

2009 – 2020 Additions (for 20%)

20% Strategy Stakeholders MeetingNovember 2008, Washington DCMarket Development and Public Policies Breakout: 

20% Strategy Stakeholders Meeting November 2008, Washington DC Market Development and Public Policies Breakout Engaging stakeholders effectively would require analyses and studies tailored to different markets, stakeholder groups, and interested parties There are diverse, effective policy options on state and federal levels that would lead to a scale-up of wind deployments The U.S. Department of Energy should continue sponsoring programs and groups that provide reasonable and accurate technical information relating to wind energy Rigorous comparative energy supply information, analysis, and the resources to disseminate this information is needed Power marketing administrations offer a significant opportunity to jump-start progress toward a 20% scale-up Key Findings and Themes – Market Development

20% Strategy Stakeholders MeetingNovember 2008, Washington DCMarket Development and Public Policies Breakout: 

20% Strategy Stakeholders Meeting November 2008, Washington DC Market Development and Public Policies Breakout Establish near-term green power preferences for federal power marketing administration supplemental power purchases Develop broad and robust educational programs for K-12, universities, community colleges, tribes, etc. Gather a more detailed understanding of stakeholders interests and perceptions to tailor specific messages and dissemination strategies Analyze and compare costs and benefits of wind and other electricity sources Expand and maintain a pool of technical, financial, and policy expertise to support state, local, and tribal efforts wanting to deploy wind Top Priority Market Development Project Options

WPA Transformation in Education,Outreach, Siting & Policy (2010-2020): 

WPA Transformation in Education, Outreach, Siting & Policy (2010-2020)

Stakeholder Education/Outreach($10.5 M/yr): 

Stakeholder Education/Outreach ($10.5 M/yr) Expand, educate and equip the state wind working group network Expand regional stakeholder wind collaboratives to 9 regions by 2012 Conduct deliberative polls in 10 stuck states Develop validated 80-100m US wind map by 2013 Develop transmission acceptance best practices guide by 2012; launch state and regional outreach campaign Support community wind through economic, business model, and policy analyses Develop a cooperative G&T outreach/education campaign with NRECA, PMA’s and UWIG Collaborate with USDA and state land grant universities on state AG extension education and support network Develop an outreach effort to national ag, regulatory and county officials organizations, including organization-specific guidebooks Create an annual generation comparative assessment supplement to the LBL market report

Workforce Development/Education($3.3 M/yr): 

Workforce Development/Education ($3.3 M/yr) Expand wind for schools (including WAC’s) to 35 states by 2015 Create a wind energy summer study program for both the high school and university level Develop a national university collaborative on wind energy education

Federal/State Policy Nexus($5.3 M/yr): 

Federal/State Policy Nexus ($5.3 M/yr) Develop offshore predevelopment outreach effort Re-invigorate the greening urban federal facilities campaign in collaboration with local NGO’s and universities Fully engage with the expanding wildlife interaction research community Enhance the TA to Indian Country Develop comprehensive TA to and education of federal lands permitting officials Form air-energy collaborative to bridge the air regulatory and energy officials gap, including wind SEPs opportunities Expand the analysis, dialogue and education of the wind/water nexus Form Interagency Siting Work Group; land use, radar, wildlife, transmission, permitting Expand federal agency wind WFO effort

WPA Critical Issues/Questions: 

WPA Critical Issues/Questions Is WPA focused/aligned satisfactorily with the 20% report and related stakeholder recommendations? What role should NREL play in integrating/ coordinating WPA activities, e.g. DOE announced 50 related FOA awards worth $8.3 M? What should the current performance criteria be for the next decade? (20% reports indicates 29 states >1000 MW by 2020) Should the wind for schools be expanded at speed and scale to prepare students for the wind workforce?  What is the appropriate role for DOE’s WPA outreach/education/siting/policy efforts vis a vis AWEA’s?

State Maturity Index: 

State Maturity Index

Mid Atlantic Region Situation: 

Mid Atlantic Region Situation

Slide19: 

19

Mid Atlantic WPA Possibilities: 

Mid Atlantic WPA Possibilities