Global warming impact on human health

Human health and Global Warming by Kiran Tallam Global Health Issues PHT 716 February 2011: 

Human health and Global Warming by Kiran Tallam Global Health Issues PHT 716 February 2011 H ow our planet is heating up and its direct impact on the human civilization

Slide 2: 

OBJECTIVES 1. Introduction to greenhouse gas emissions and their effects 2.How global warming is going to affect life on earth 3. Identifying 4 specific areas: Impact of global warming on weather, agriculture, infectious diseases and air pollution, which affect health directly and indirectly. 4. Compare and contrast the effects of global warming in the past, present and future. 5.What can people do to affect a positive change to control global warming.

What do we know about global warming ?: 

What do we know about global warming ? Global warming is a noticeable and comprehensive change in the planet earth’s temperature . 1 Environmental change is an extended change in the earth’s normal pattern of atmospheric conditions and its fluctuations. 1 Global warming is caused by an improved greenhouse effect caused by human activities . 1

Defining the greenhouse effect: 

Heat being trapped in the earth’s atmosphere is one of the main reasons for the greenhouse effect. 2 In the first step, the sun’s rays with increased radiation frequency enter the earth’s atmosphere in the form of visible light. 2 In the second step, these rays are absorbed by the earth and radiated back into the atmosphere in the form of infrared radiation or simply heat. 2 The earth’s atmosphere also consists of different gases: methane, carbon dioxide, nitrous oxide and fluorocarbons, which are capable of absorbing infrared radiation in small quantities. Infrared radiation gets captured by these gases and struggle to enter into the earth’s atmosphere. 3 Finally, as increased heat becomes trapped in earth’s atmosphere, it begins to raise the earth’s temperature. 2 Defining the greenhouse effect

Climate Change’s Impacts on Health3: 

Climate Change’s Impacts on Health 3 5 Source: Haines, et al, JAMA 2004 Climate change and its impact on health 3

Slide 6: 

The following satellite images from NASA are proof of global warming 4 2003 1979

Climate change was faster than expected in 1990s3: 

Climate change was f aster than expected in 1990s 3 IPCC 4 (2007) was limited to science published by early 2006. 3,4 Subsequent research shows increasing rates of: Global GHG emissions 3.3% p.a. in 2000s, vs 1.3% p.a. in 1990s. 3 Temperature rise especially in polar regions Ice melt (Arctic: 40% loss since 1980, accelerating 2006-07 ). 4 Sea-level rise. 4 CO 2 Concentration Av Surface Temp Sea Level Rise (cm) Global climate model statistics 3

Impact of increased human activities5: 

Impact of increased human activities 5

Slide 9: 

Deaths (thousands) DALYs (millions) 2000 2030 Deaths and Disability adjusted life years(DALYs) attributable to Climate Change, 2000 & 2030 Selected conditions in developing countries 1 Now (2000) Future (2030) Deaths Total Burden

Why humans should care for their own health : 

Why humans should care for their own health It is our job to protect the public’s health WHO estimates that in the year 2008, there were 175,000 excess deaths per year due to climate change. 1 Climate change is already affecting health around the world, and its impact on health will continue to grow. 1 Fighting climate change is aligned with protecting and promoting health Many of the proposed solutions for climate change are healthy for everyone. 6 We have the appropriate skills Public Health has the skills to effect behavior change, and those skills can help people adopt greener behaviors too. 6 Public Health has policy and advocacy skills that will help encourage organizational and societal changes. 6 We can be role models, everyone of us to save the planet earth.

Projected Impact of Global Temperature Change.7: 

1 °C 2 °C 5 °C 4 °C 3 °C Sea level rise threatens major cities Falling crop yields in many areas, particularly developing regions Food Water Ecosystems Risk of Abrupt and Major Irreversible Changes 0 °C Falling yields in many developed regions Rising number of species face extinction Increasing risk of dangerous feedbacks and abrupt, large-scale shifts in the climate system Significant decreases in water availability in many areas, including Mediterranean and Southern Africa Small mountain glaciers disappear – water supplies threatened in several areas Extensive Damage to Coral Reefs Extreme Weather Events Rising intensity of storms, forest fires, droughts, flooding and heat waves Possible rising yields in some high latitude regions 450 ppm CO2 eq 650 ppm CO2 eq Projected Impact of Global Temperature Change. 7

How Global warming can affect Human Health: 

How Global warming can affect Human Health Human health can be affected in a number of ways by global warming 8 : -The spread of infectious diseases -Cultivation 9 -Intense and volatile weather patterns -The quantity of smog close to the ground -The amount and availability of freshwater to humans 8

Extreme Weather Events & Disease Clusters9: 

Extreme Weather Events & Disease Clusters 9 Source: Epstein, Harvard Center for Health & Global Environment

Impact of global warming on infectious diseases9: 

Impact of global warming on infectious diseases 9 1990 2085 Estimated regional probability of infectious diseases occurrence under medium climate change scenario: 1990 vs 2085. 9 Using statistical equation derived from observations of recent distribution of diseases in relation to meteorological variables. 9

Slide 15: 

Heatwave, satellite image: August 2004 10 3000-5000 extra deaths over a 2-week period. 10 Land surface temperatures, summer of 2003, vs. summers of 2000-04. NASA satellite spectrometry

Human Health and Severe Weather Patterns: Risks and impacts of global warming 11: 

Human Health and Severe Weather Patterns: Risks and impacts of global warming 11 The number of hot days per year is on the rise, resulting in increased number of heat related deaths around the world. 11 Extreme weather conditions can bring about problems such as heat cramps and heat stroke, which can lead to single or multiple organ failure and death in some extreme cases. 11 The young and elderly are particularly vulnerable to extreme weather conditions A recent study conducted in Canada, estimates that heat related deaths can rise from 70/year to 240 to 1140 by the end of 2050. This report is only for the city of Montreal. 10 Graph represents the risks and impact of global warming (1990 to 2100). 11

Global warming will impact water supply and human health indirectly: 

Global warming will impact water supply and human health indirectly Due to global warming the amount of annual precipitation and the amount of ice converted to freshwater from the polar ice caps is projected to increase. 12 A rise in sea level is projected for 2100 of as much as 40 centimeters. 11 This rise in sea level could not only destroy human dwellings and agricultural production but could also destroy many sea-side aquifers which would deplete the general water supply for humankind. 12 Metropolitan city under water 13

Impact on agriculture can affect human health: 

Impact on agriculture can affect human health A superior part of the world and its nations depend on agriculture as their main source of income and on food production. 14 In a typical scenario, precipitation is projected to increase due to global warming, and when it does many crops will collect too much water and will be drowned as fields flood due to an estimated rise of 40 centimeters in the sea level. 14 In a different model proposed, the amount of evaporation is predicted to raise due to global warming, signifying that even more crops will die due to a lack of water. 12 For many nations this transformation could mean death, in fact the estimated number of starving people worldwide is expected to increase by 250-300 million people in addition to the 600 million already projected to be starving in 2060. 14

Adverse Health Effects of Air Pollution: 

19 Adverse H ealth Effects of Air Pollution In the figure on the right is a glimpse of health related issues arising from air pollution in America. 15 Example: Quantity of commodities transported through California alone are projected to quadruple between 2000 and 2020. 15 This increase can significantly impact air quality and health Diesel particulate matter (PM) concentrated around ports, rail yards, and heavily trafficked roads 15 premature deaths cancer respiratory disease lost workdays hospitalizations Annual Health Impacts in CA from PM and Ozone 4 Annual deaths as a result of air pollution 15

The Time for Inaction Has Passed: 

20 The Time for Inaction Has Passed The warning of warming is global: touches all, universally Intensity of the danger: threatens all of our basic survival mechanisms -- food, water, shelter, and health. 16 Magnitude of response: must connect every sector of society. Otherwise, basic survival in near the future can be grave. 16 Time for action is now because almost all of the human activities are resulting in carbon emissions. Adaptation and mitigation are two ways we can respond to climate change. 16 The aim of any action initiated should result in delaying or complete reversal of climate change, by plummeting the greenhouse gases (GHG) in the earth’s atmosphere so that we can prevent the worst climate change scenarios in future. 16

Slide 21: 

21 Public Health actions to achieve climate change 16

What Can We Do ?: 

22 What Can We Do ? Mitigation = reduce GHG emissions Decrease energy consumption and Reduce, Reuse, Recycle As responsible individuals , at home. As collective organizations , at work. 17 Adaptation=get ready for impact of climate transformation Emergency watchfulness As families and individuals. As healthcare professionals. 16 Mitigation and adaptation = campaign for healthy policies Advocate and support laws that reduces greenhouse gas emissions. 17 Maintain sustainable lifestyles & communities. 16

Recognize the Co-benefits of Decreasing GHG Emissions: 

Recognize the Co-benefits of Decreasing GHG Emissions 23 Principal benefits reductions in the predictable long-term consequences of and avoid damage of climate change. 17 Co-benefits (or ancillary benefits) economic, social, environmental, public health and other benefits independent of any direct benefits from mitigating climate change. 17 Health co-benefits Positive benefits of climate change mitigation schemes that have a positive impact on health. 17 Example: endorse cleaner energy fabrication and cleaner fuels Principal result = decreased GHG emissions from energy production. 18 Co-benefit = a reduced amount of air pollution = less respiratory distress. 18

Vital Mitigation Technologies & Practices*: 

Vital Mitigation Technologies & Practices * Transport 16 Fuel efficiency Hybrids Road to rail Public transport Non-motorized transport Land-use planning Buildings 18 Day lighting Energy efficiency Improved cooking stoves Solar heating & cooling *Items in green consists of health benefits Agriculture 17 Crop & land management Livestock & manure management Improved N fertilizer use Industry 16 Energy efficiency Heat & power recovery Energy supply 18 Coal to gas Nuclear power Renewable energy

Conclusion: 

Conclusion Climate change and global warming are the names given by scientists for the gradual increase in temperature of the Earth’s surface that has worsened since the industrial revolution. Over the past two decades the effect has become more marked. Considerable evidence exists that most of this warming has been caused by human activities...... That is to say we have altered the chemical composition of the atmosphere through a build up of greenhouse gases- primarily carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide. 3 What if we do nothing? Rising global temperatures will cause sea levels to rise and alter local climate conditions, affecting forests, crop yields and water supplies. It may also affect human health, animals and different types of ecosystems. Deserts may expand and some of our countryside may be permanently altered or destroyed. What can you do to reduce global warming? We all have to use a form of transportation to work and we like being consumers, but there are many ways we can help. First step is: to recognize the amount of carbon foot prints we are leaving behind; do you? An objective look at what science is saying about climate change ought to be sufficient to persuade reasonable people that the climate is changing and humans are responsible for a substantial part of that. These changes are causing harm and will continue to do so until we reduce our emissions.

References: 

References References 1. Epstein P R. Bringing climate change into global governance. Solutions . 2010; 84: 345-354. 2. Canadell J G, LeQuere C, Raupach M R, Field C B, Buitehuls E T, Ciais P, et.al. Contributions to accelerating atmospheric C0 2 growth from economic activity, carbon intensity, and efficiency of natural sinks. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. 2007; 104: 10288-10293. 3. Noyes P D, McElwee M K, Miller H D, Clark B W, Van Tiem L A, Walcott K C, et.al. The toxicology of climate change: environmental contaminants in warming world. Environ Int . 2009; 35(6): 971-86. 4. 1979 to 2003 Sea Ice Comparisons. Available at: http://www.nasa.gov/centers/goddard/news Accessed on 13-2-2011. 5. Animated representation of the indicators of the global warming. Available at: www.skepticalscience.com. Retrieved on: 1-2-2011 .

Slide 27: 

6. Bala G, Caldeira K, Wickett M, Phillips T J, et.al. Combined climate and carbon-cycle effects of large-scale deforestation: A comprehensive solution. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. 2007; 104: 6550–6555. 7. Meinshausen M, Meinshausen N, Hare W, Raper S C, Frieler K, Knutti R, Frame D J and Allen M R. Greenhouse-gas emission targets for limiting global warming to 2 degrees C. Nature . 2009; 458(7242): 1158-62. 8. Ebi K and McGregor G. Climate change, tropospheric ozone and particular matter, and health impacts. Cien Saude Colet . 2009; 14(6): 2281-93. 9. Epstein P. The ecology of climate change and infectious diseases: comment. Ecology . 2010; 91:925-928. 10. Martiello M A and Giacchi M V. High temperatures and health outcomes: a review of the literature. Scan J Public Health . 2010; 38(8): 826-37. 11. Hajat S, O’Connor M and Kosatsky T. Health effects of hot weather: from awareness of risk factors to effective health protection. Lancet . 2010; 375(9717): 856-63.

Slide 28: 

12. Bonan G.B. (2008) Forests and climate change: Forcings, feedbacks, and the climate benefits of forests. Science . 2008; 320: 1444–1449. 13. An urban city submerged underwater. Available at: www.hickerphoto.com. Accessed on: 2-2-2011. 14. Doherty R M, Heal M R, Wilkinson P, Pattenden S, Vieno M, Armstrong B, et.al. Current and future climate and air pollution-mediated impacts on human health. Environ Health . 2009; 21(8): S8. 15. Liao K J, Tagaris E, Russell A G, Amar P, He S, Manomaiphiboon K and Woo J H. Cost analysis of impacts of climate change on regional air quality. J Air Waste Manag Assoc . 2010; 60(2): 195-203. 16. Frumkin H, Bogner J, Pipatti R, Hashimoto S, Diaz C, Mareckova k, Diaz L, Kjeldsen P, et.al. Mitigation of global greenhouse gas emission from waste: conclusions and strategies from the intergovernmental panel on climate change (IPCC) fourth assessment report. Working group III (Mitigation). Waste Manag Res . 2007; 26(1): 11-32. 17. MacCracken M C. Prospects for future climate change and the reasons for early action. J Air Waste Manag Assoc . 2008; 58(6): 735-86. 18. Zickfeld K, Eby M, Matthews H D and Weaver A J. Setting cumulative emissions targets to reduce the risk of dangerous climate change. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA . 2009; 106(38): 16129-34. 19. Global warming clip-art. Available at: http://www.fotosearch.com/clip-art/global-warming.html. Accessed on 10-2-2011.