predicting hazards

Predictions and Probability - Earthquakes: 

Predictions and Probability - Earthquakes The ways on the right are just some used to try and predict earthquakes. In Parkfield California, on the San Andreas Fault. It is supposedly the earthquake capital of the world and is closely monitored. Nevertheless the 1994 Northridge earthquake was not predicted and it happened on a fault that scientists did not know existed. Even if a prediction is made, the costs of a false one are enormous. What happened prior to the L’aquila earthquake in Italy?

PowerPoint Presentation: 

By monitoring past earthquakes and faults estimates can be made of the probability of earthquakes occuring in certain locations and what size they may be. The longer stresses build up the more likely a large eartquake will occur. Estimates of very generalised timings are given but these are rarely accurate. Or are they… http://www.geog.ucsb.edu/events/department-news/867/predicting-hazards-is-a-risky-business /

Hurricane Prediction : 

Hurricane Prediction How is this done How accurate is it to determine probability of hitting a specific area, at a specific time and with a specific strength. What does the map above of some of the different paths of past hurricanes tell us about the paths of hurricanes.

PowerPoint Presentation: 

Why do predictors use a forecast cone? The above hurricane was a “surprise” hurricane. Most are fairly well monitored. How well was cyclone Nargis Monitored? Did it benefit the people of the area?

Long Term hurricane planning.: 

Long Term hurricane planning. Look at the 2010 long range forecast. What reasons were given for it How accurate was it… you will need to do some research.