SHANE VALLANCE

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Latest economic conditions – a selection of charts Shane Vallance Associate – Economy Module:

Latest economic conditions – a selection of charts Shane Vallance Associate – Economy Module

GDP and main components:

GDP and main components

Productivity struggling to reach previous levels:

Productivity struggling to reach previous levels

Little evidence of sector trade rebalancing:

Little evidence of sector trade rebalancing

But evidence of geographical trade rebalancing:

But evidence of geographical trade rebalancing

EU and non-EU now equal in value:

EU and non-EU now equal in value

Balance sheets continuing to be rebuilt:

Balance sheets continuing to be rebuilt

Manufacturing margins remain under pressure:

Manufacturing margins remain under pressure

Investment showing signs of life?:

Investment showing signs of life?

UK firms investing in emerging markets:

UK firms investing in emerging markets

Signs of life in Mergers & Acquisitions:

Signs of life in Mergers & Acquisitions

Regional employment faring better than output:

Regional employment faring better than output

SW PMI – ‘largely static’:

SW PMI – ‘largely static’

SW PMI – ‘largely static’:

SW PMI – ‘largely static’

SW negative real wage growth:

SW negative real wage growth

Profits and sterling – flight to stocks :

Profits and sterling – flight to stocks

Conclusions:

Conclusions (-) At macro level the picture remains subdued (-) UK relative productivity position has deteriorated (-) As yet little evidence of sectoral rebalancing (+) Businesses are targeting growth markets (+) Investment increasing is encouraging (+) Households and firms continue to rebuild cash position (+/-) South West position similar to UK picture – output affected more than overall employment but real wage declines represent constraints

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