Implications of the 2011 Census for the EFA

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The Education Funding Agency talk about the 2011 Census and their planned analyses - SWO event, September 2012.

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Implications of the 2011 Census for the Education Funding Agency:

Implications of the 2011 Census for the Education Funding Agency Pete Gisborne – Funding Analysis & Modelling Manager

EFA’s Responsibilities :

EFA’s Responsibilities Provide Funding for the education of pupils in Academies Distribute The Dedicated Schools Grant for the education of pupils up to age 16 in local authority maintained schools Provide Funding for all 16-19 education and training Provide Funding for learners with learning difficulties and/or disabilities aged 16-25 Support The delivery of capital programmes for schools, Academies, Free Schools and sixth form colleges Budget: £52 billion, staff c770

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About the same as the GDP of Slovakia

THE DEMOGRAPHIC OUTLOOK IS FUNDAMENTAL TO CORE ASPECTS OF DFE’S BUSINESS :

THE DEMOGRAPHIC OUTLOOK IS FUNDAMENTAL TO CORE ASPECTS OF DFE’S BUSINESS Demographic change presents a range of challenges to DfE, both in the short and long-term. It determines the number of pupils we need to educate the number of schools we need to teach them in the number of teachers we need to train. This also matters for DfE’s performance measures participation rates for under 5s and post-16, and the proportion of young people who are not in education, employment or training. Therefore, demographic change has specific implications for policies and their deliverability, for example, the Raising of the Participation Age (RPA).

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EVERYTHING AFTER THIS SLIDE IS PROVISIONAL – WORK IN PROGRESS

Estimated increase/decrease in population due to the March 2011 Census (thousands) :

Estimated increase/decrease in population due to the March 2011 Census (thousands)

Number of 16-18s, England, 000s:

Number of 16-18s, England, 000s about 84,000 [or 4%] more Still declining, but at a slightly slower rate

NEETs – 1st way of counting - CCIS:

NEETs – 1 st way of counting - CCIS Making this bigger makes this smaller *or thought to be No change – doesn’t use Census

NEETs – 2nd way of counting – Labour Force Survey:

NEETs – 2nd way of counting – Labour Force Survey Making this bigger makes this smaller Will change, but not yet – Census-based weights

NEETs – 3rd way of counting – Statistical First Release:

NEETs – 3rd way of counting – Statistical First Release Will change Total cohort minus Those known to be in state-funded education or training minus Those estimated to be in other learning minus Those estimated to be in jobs = NEETs Add lots here Add some here Means quite a lot more here

Estimated Impact on 16-18 year old NEETs (academic age) of 2011 Census, compared to previously published:

Estimated Impact on 16-18 year old NEETs (academic age) of 2011 Census, compared to previously published 16 17 18 16/17 16-18 Published (June 2012 SFR) 17,000 43,000 95,000 60,000 155,000 New estimate, based on 2011 Census 38,000 59,000 104,000 97,000 201,000 Difference 21,000 16,000 9,000 37,000 46,000 Cost of this not planned for yet.

Change to presumed size of 15-19 cohort caused by 2011 Census:

Change to presumed size of 15-19 cohort caused by 2011 Census Half the increase in 2 [mostly] urban regions

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