20b JUDGMENT COUNTS

Views:
 
     
 

Presentation Description

No description available.

Comments

Presentation Transcript

Slide 1: 

1 Stuart Hoffman IBISWorld Inc. (610) 256-2387 stuarth@ibisworld.com JUDGMENT MATTERS. Summer 2010

Slide 2: 

2 Why Judgment Matters

Slide 3: 

3 Beware of geeks bearing formulas. - Warren Buffett, 2009

Slide 4: 

4 over-reliance on models - SAS

Slide 5: 

5 balance of facts and judgment - Moody’s KMV

Slide 6: 

6 across the organizations - Moody’s KMV

Slide 7: 

7 “The blind application of purely statistical models is not a satisfactory approach.” - Sungard

Slide 8: 

8 multiple assumptions - Sr. Supervisors Grp.

Slide 9: 

9 forward-looking scenarios - Sr. Supervisors Grp.

Slide 10: 

10 qualitative assessments - Sr. Supervisors Grp.

Slide 11: 

11 other tools and expert judgment - Sr. Supervisors Grp.

Slide 12: 

12 “Methods span a spectrum from explicit, statistically based quantitative scores to judgmental approaches.” - OCC

Slide 13: 

13 “Creative thinking, new tools, and better data likely are needed.” - OCC

Slide 14: 

14 Stuart Hoffman IBISWorld Inc. (610) 256-2387 stuarth@ibisworld.com