3 minute primer on the vancouver condo market

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synopsis of the latest issue the Metro Vancouver Condo Market Opportunities Report

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Three MINUTE PRIMER ON THE VANCOUVER CONDO MARKET:

T hree MINUTE PRIMER ON THE VANCOUVER CONDO MARKET August 15, 2011 Condominium Market Opportunities Report Vol. 1 No. 2

What’s Driving the Market:

What’s Driving the Market For the past 20 years, first quarter immigration numbers have been very closely related to annual net migration figures. So unless there’s a major revision from StatsCan , total migration to BC will be down by about 40% in 2011. This in turn is expected to result in a 15% drop in new condo sales. Not this year but most likely in 2012 Condominium Market Opportunities Report Vol. 1 No. 2

High Rise Condo Markets:

High Rise Condo Markets Best market opportunities next 12 months Burnaby - strong sales in the past six months have pushed this market to the top of the list; no problem with unsold inventory yet and planned starts could fall short in the next 12 months; average price per square foot expected to increase by 7% in the next 12 months Downtown Vancouver - still rated a good market for the rest of 2011 and most of 2012; high end, unsold inventory is a bit of a drag; potential improvements in product mix are more limited than other high rise markets; revenue estimates are better than average but not by much Westside Vancouver - the price trend is down and the sales trend is up but unsold inventory is still excessive; sales may drop over the next 12 months as pent-up demand disappears; product mix adjustments could keep high rise revenues above all other high rise markets Richmond - big improvement in sales over the past six months, especially for competitively priced product; price per square foot is expected to increase over the next 12 months so emphasis likely to be on small units with an attractive price for investors and entry level buyers Condominium Market Opportunities Report Vol. 1 No. 2

Low Rise Condo Markets:

Low Rise Condo Markets Best market opportunities next 12 months Eastside Vancouver - perhaps the best opportunities for new low rise over the next 12 months; sales could increase by 38% if new product is available; even with the average price per square foot at $535, prices could increase by 6%; gains are also possible in product mix adjustments New Westminster - sales in new projects indicates a bigger demand for low rise than previously thought; not much unsold inventory and not enough upcoming supply in the next 12 months; projects with prices below Burnaby should do well Burnaby - another major low rise market that could be under supplied in the next 12 months; average price per square foot of $465 expected to increase by 4% over the next 12 months Westside Vancouver - this market is in good shape with limited inventory and a possible under supply of new product in the next 12 months; but further improvements in sales or price increases are unlikely; low rise prices are getting close to high rise prices Richmond - some developers have taken advantage of the opportunities noted six months ago; if price increases remain below 2%, sales could pick up in the next 12 months Condominium Market Opportunities Report Vol. 1 No. 2

Townhome Condo Markets:

Townhome Condo Markets Best market opportunities next 12 months Richmond - still looks like the best market for new townhome projects; further price increases could slow down sales but for now, a price of $535,000 for a 1,300 square foot townhome is ok with buyers; more product in the 1,250 to 1,500 square foot range could help Tri-Cities - unsold townhome inventory is not a major problem; but too few new projects could reduce sales over the next 12 months; projects with most of their product in the 1,100 to 1,500 square foot range have sold reasonably well South Surrey-White Rock - excess inventory reduces the opportunities in this market but if developers cut back on new projects as much as expected then there could be an under supply in the next 12 months; new townhome sales are improving with lower priced product on the market; there is demand for large units and limited supply in new projects Condominium Market Opportunities Report Vol. 1 No. 2

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Condominium Market Opportunities Report Vol. 1 No. 2 For more information on the Condominium Market Opportunities Report for Greater Vancouver and 13 sub-markets contact: Jeff Hancock MPC Intelligence Inc. t: 604-605-1516 c: 604-340-5861 Email: jhancock@mpcinteligence.ca

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