The Economic & Geopolitical importance of Eastern Med gas fields

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Europe is currently confronted with a unique challenge and a remarkable opportunity! A challenge and opportunity faced also by countries of the Eastern Mediterranean, EU-member and non-EU alike. For the first time ever in Europe’s energy history, the EU is guaranteed an uninterrupted supply of a traditional energy source: The already confirmed and estimated discoveries of substantial hydrocarbon deposits in the Eastern Mediterranean can be complimented by the scientifically estimated deposits within the Exclusive Economic Zone of Greece and in particular those that lie south and southwest of the island of Crete. The estimated Greek hydrocarbon deposits complete the European energy puzzle as they contribute to a now more than possible (long-term) scenario that envisages an Israel-Cyprus-Greece-Italy pipeline network, dictating a transit route that avoids non-EU countries and thus guaranteeing an uninterrupted energy supply source for the EU, of the EU.

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www.pytheas.net The importance of Eastern Mediterranean gas fields for Greece and the EU January 2012 Pytheas Market Focus Alain Bruneton Elias Konofagos Anthony E. Foscolos

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Copyright © 2012 Pytheas Limited 19 January 2012 2 Pytheas Market Focus This paper was first published in June 2011 by the Technical University of Crete with the title ”Economic and Geopolitical Importance of Eastern Mediterranean gas fields for Greece and the EU – Emphasis on the Probable Natural Gas Deposits Occurring in the Libyan Sea within the Exclusive Economic Zone of Greece”. Now especially after the confirmation of significant natural gas deposits in the Exclusive Economic Zone of EU member state Cyprus the more than likely natural gas reserves that lie within the EEZ of Greece and the huge hydrocarbon potential of the Eastern Mediterranean as a whole Pytheas with the permission of the Authors republishes this more than ever current Paper. A scientific document that attempts to prove that there must be enough hydrocarbon deposits in the South-Eastern Mediterranean to satisfy the EU needs for probably the rest of the century.

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Copyright © 2012 Pytheas Limited 19 January 2012 3 Pytheas Market Focus Forward Europe is currently confronted with a unique challenge and a remarkable opportunity A challenge and opportunity faced also by countries of the Eastern Mediterranean EU-member and non-EU alike. For the first time ever in Europe’s energy history the EU is guaranteed an uninterrupted supply of a traditional energy source: The already confirmed and estimated discoveries of substantial hydrocarbon deposits in the Eastern Mediterranean can be complimented by the scientifically estimated deposits within the Exclusive Economic Zone of Greece and in particular those that lie south and southwest of the island of Crete. The estimated Greek hydrocarbon deposits complete the European energy puzzle as they contribute to a now more than possible long-term scenario that envisages an Israel-Cyprus- Greece-Italy pipeline network dictating a transit route that avoids non-EU countries and thus guaranteeing an uninterrupted energy supply source for the EU of the EU. All these when studies performed by the International Energy Agency and Eurogas and not only indicate that the latest by 2020 EU natural gas demand will outgrow supply leading to a substantial gap between demand and supply whether this comes from European production or imported from outside Europe. Moreover the sufficient natural gas reserves available in the medium to long run are in countries which are NOT so accessible in terms of transmission distances or exist in fields that are increasingly difficult to develop with the consequence of rising production and transport costs. Not to mention the global growing gas demand and the competition for supply especially from North America and the emerging economies of South- East Asia. No doubt the hydrocarbon discoveries in the Eastern Mediterranean are bound to serve as a catalyst toward greater cooperation amongst the participant countries. The joint exploitation between these countries and the launching of joint projects has the potential to change the whole political and economic scene of the entire region to the better. A most important issue that gas-starved EU itself should set as a priority and mediate to ensure that an appropriate framework and solid plan are in place in order to complete exploration drilling and commence exploitation as efficiently and as quickly as possible. It is my pleasure and honor to republish and host this valued paper produced by these world accredited scientists Mr. Alain Bruneton Dr. Elias Konofagos and Professor Anthony E. Foscolos. A paper that is now more current than ever. Closing and again this is not just a project of the countries that are directly involved. It is a pan-European project of utmost importance. The energy strategy that the EU will follow today in regard to the Eastern European hydrocarbons is bound to dictate its economic future. Harris A. Samaras Chairman CEO PYTHEAS January 2012 H. A. Samaras

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Copyright © 2012 Pytheas Limited 19 January 2012 4 Pytheas Market Focus Abstract Assessment of undiscoverable gas resources of the Levant basin province using current technology were estimated by the USGS United States Geological Survey to be about 3.5 tcm trillion cubic meters of gas. Already in the Israeli EEZ Exclusive Economic Zone an amount of 800 bcm billion cubic meters is discovered in the fields of Marie B Gaza Marine Yam 1/2 Levathian Dalit and Tamar. Soon in the Cypriot part of the Levant basin a well will be drilled in the gas prone structural target “Cyprus A”. Due to geological similarities with the nearby Tamar gas field an estimated amount of gas reserves around 300 bcm with a probability of 90 is expected to be discovered while oil discovery of around 3 Bbl with a probability of 17 is anticipated. In the Nile delta and the EEZ of the Republic of Cyprus USGS has estimated a natural gas potential of 6.3 tcm besides the 2.2 tcm of gas and 1.7 Bbbl Billion barrels of oil already discovered in the Egyptian EEZ. Out of the 6.3 tcm roughly 3 tcm according to BEICIP/FRANLAB should be located within the EEZ of Cyprus. These estimated resources are comparable to some other large gas provinces encountered in the world. In the same region crude oil potential reserves of about 1.7 Bbbl of oil and about 6 Bbbl of gas condensate are also estimated by USGS to exist. Based upon existing geological similarities between the portions of Herodotus Basin located into the Cypriot EEZ and the Egyptian EEZ possible recoverable natural gas reserves ranging from 1 to 3 tcm have been suggested by I.F.P. for the Greek portion of the Herodotus basin. Furthermore expected recoverable gas reserves south and southwest of Crete where a great number of mud volcanoes are active on the Mediterranean Ridge still emitting gas with simultaneous presence of gas hydrates have not yet been assessed. However it should be noted that in the Nile Cone the presence of 7 active mud volcanoes is accompanied with 126 gas fields with proven reserves of about 1.8 Tcm. Similar relations exist throughout the world. It is a valid deduction that Greece should proceed with extensive geological studies and detailed geological surveys in order to explore the existence of hydrocarbons offshore south southeast and southwest of Crete. These very large hydrocarbon reserves especially those of natural gas found in the Eastern Mediterranean can eventually alleviate the anticipated energy deficit which Europe will face by 2020. 1. Introduction The extensive utilization of new geophysical exploration techniques applied in deep offshore drilling beyond 3000 meters of water 3D seismic and reservoir characterization paved the way in developing and producing hydrocarbons in new and promising areas of the Eastern Mediterranean and more particularly in the ultra deep offshore of the Herodotus Basin Figure 1. The portion of this basin which lies within the EEZ of Greece Figure 2 seems to have huge hydrocarbon potential including probable large stratigraphic traps and working petroleum systems ascertained by DHI’s Direct Hydrocarbon Indications on seismic data Beicip/Franlab 2007 Montadert and Nicolaidis 2007 Kassinis 2008 Krois et al. 2010. Recent significant oil and gas field discoveries offshore Israel were carried out in a geological environment that most probably extends into Cyprus offshore. In addition similar discoveries offshore Egypt especially in the Nile Cone adjoining the EEZ of Greece strengthens the Figure 1. Geotectonic map of Eastern Mediterranean and Greece. Hachette Literature Générale Paris France 1993.

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Copyright © 2012 Pytheas Limited 19 January 2012 5 Pytheas Market Focus probability of discovering similar accumulations into the Greek offshore. Based upon published data this paper makes a short review of the hydrocarbon potential of the East Mediterranean offshore areas and more particularly in areas connected with the Greek offshore domain of Southern Crete. We will particularly focus on the potential of the Greek portion of the Herodotus Basin and on other neighboring geological basins offshore Crete. 2. The Eastern Mediterranean hydrocarbon potential the Herodotus Basin and the island of Crete Greece. The physiography of the Eastern Mediterranean Sea is presented in Figure3 Montadert et al. 2004. In these areas discoveries are reported in Egyptian and Israel offshore areas USGS Technical Reports 2010. Both oil and gas were discovered and the objectives are found at several stratigraphic levels Peck and Horscroft 2005. Peck 2008 also discusses in detail the stratigraphy of the Eastern Mediterranean basins where large hydrocarbon prospects or even giant ones can be identified and discovered. 2.1 The Levantine Basin. The Levantine offshore basin is located between Egypt Israel Lebanon Syria Turkey and south east Cyprus Figure 4. Several discoveries have been reported in the offshore of Israel Gardosh et. al. 2008. Light oil in the Middle Jurassic and gas in the Lower Cretaceous was discovered in Yam Tetis field. Marie B gas field was discovered by British Gas and which is currently operated by Noble Energy that produces about 300 MMcf/day million cubic feet per day from 6 wells with offshore facilities having a total production capacity of 600MMcf/day. The Gaza marine field Figure 5 has 1.4 tcf of proven reserves while the Tamar field is reported to be a giant field with 8.4 tcf reserves and a possible daily production of 1bcf Noble Energy 2010.The gas is said to come from Neogene sands deposited in a turbidite environment. These turbidites are inferred to be deposited by channel systems having a NW-SE direction. This trend could reach Cyprus blocks offshore in the South Eastern part Block12. In this region very recently Noble Energy has made a huge gas discovery 16.1 tcf 453 bcm in the Leviathan field west of Tamar field and anticipates to discover an additional 4.2 billion barrels of oil into deeper horizons Figures 6 and 14. In the Levantine Basin Noble Energy has achieved a discovery success rate approaching 100.This is attributed to the excellent quality of seismic data. Processing of 3D reflection seismic recordings was capable to identify the exact geometry of exploration targets before drilling and to assess the nature of the hydrocarbons natural gas and the potential volume of the expected natural gas discovery. The USGS 2010 report estimates that the undiscovered oil and gas resources of the Levant Province East Mediterranean which includes the EEZ of Syria Lebanon and Israel to have mean estimates 1.7 billion barrels of recoverable oil and a mean of 122 tcf 3.45 tcm of recoverable gas using a geology based assessment methodology Figure 7. As per the USGS 2010 report mean estimates in the EEZs of Syria Lebanon and Israel alone contain 1.7 Bbbl of recoverable oil and a 3.45 tcm of recoverable natural gas. Figure 2. Prospective areas for hydrocarbon exploration within the EEZ of Greece. Figure 3. Physiography of Eastern Mediterranean Sea. Black boundary delineation by PGS survey offshore Cyprus Montadert et. al. 2007.

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Copyright © 2012 Pytheas Limited 19 January 2012 6 Pytheas Market Focus 2.2. The Eratosthenes Sea Mount – Emphasis between the Eratosthenes Seamount and the Herodotus Basin. The Eratosthenes Sea Mount is thought to be a detached slab of the African/Levantine platform. The lower geological section was studied by the Ocean Drilling Program Leg 160 in A. Robertson 1998. A seismic cross section west of Eratosthenes Sea Mount and Herodotus is presented in Fig.8 and Fig.9 Montadert et al. 2004. 2.3. Petroleum systems play concepts and hydrocarbon prospects. The existence of source rocks in Egypt and the Levant which generate oil gas condensates and gas could be extended into the offshore Cyprus. Petroleum systems were active with mature source rocks distributed in the Mesozoic and Cenozoic thick sedimentary sections found in the Levantine Basin below the Nile deep sea fan up to 12 Km and in the Herodotus Basin from 12 Km to 18 Km Montadert et. al. 2010. Seismic profiles show many DHI’s bright spots and flat spots which have been mapped in the Pliocene-Quaternary of the Nile Delta Sea in the Herodotus Basin Figure 10. The presence of bright and flat spots in structural closures have been shown as attractive exploration targets over the NEMED block Figure 11 Kassinis 2008. Similar features exist in the Cenozoïc on top of the Eastern Cyprus Arc. Gas chimneys have been frequently Figure 4. Main structural features of the Eastern Mediterranean Montadert et. al. 2010. Figure 5. Natural gas deposits in the EEZ of Israel Southern Levantine Basin Noble Energy 2010. Figure 6. Exploration discoveries within the EEZs of Israel and Cyprus Noble Energy 2010. Figure 7. The Levantine Basin with its recent oil and gas discoveries USGS Technical Report 2010.

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Copyright © 2012 Pytheas Limited 19 January 2012 7 Pytheas Market Focus observed Figure 12 and highlight the migration pathways of hydrocarbons from deep structures into shallow reservoirs creating near surface gas pocks and sometimes mud volcanoes or pockmarks on the sea floor. The hydrocarbon discoveries mainly gas made in the vicinity of Cyprus in the deep offshore of Egypt Shell Kj 45-1 Kg 49-1 La52-1 – the wells were drilled by the “Stena Tay” semi-sub in water depths of up to 2400 meters a record depth for the Mediterranean in 2003 Back for Egypt Deep 2005 Africa Oil and Gas volume 8 issue 24 page 4 Figure 13 the BP 2010 Hodoa well discovery WSDW-7 and offshore Israel Tamar and Leviathan – are very encouraging. Noble Energy Company expects to discover 300 bcm of natural gas in Cyprus A field due to geological similarities with the Tamar and Leviathan hydrocarbon field Figure 14. According to Semb 2009 the oil and gas reserves in the seas surrounding Cyprus are estimated to be between 1 tcm to 1.5 tcm of natural gas corresponding to about 6 Bbbloe to 8 Bbbloe oil equivalents. Figure 8. Regional cross section from the Levantine Basin to the Herodotus Basin through the Eratosthenes Bank Montadert and Nicolaides 2007. Figure 9. West Eratosthenes to Herodotus sub-basin and high Montadert and Nikolaides 2010.

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Copyright © 2012 Pytheas Limited 19 January 2012 8 Pytheas Market Focus The Nile Delta Petroleum System The Nile Delta corresponds to a very thick clastic wedge of prograding sediments dated Paleogene to actual. The sedimentary thickness may exceed 4000/5000 meters. The Miocene and Pliocene sands reservoirs have produced a large amount of gas: 3.8 billions boe reported in 2000 and more than 62 tcf 1.75 tcm of proven reserves Niazi and Dahli 2004. A few oil fields have also been discovered in the Lower Cretaceous Mango/TOTAL see Figure15 above Kasssinis 2008. Figure 10. Direct Hydrocarbon Detection DHI seismic flat spot tested by Shell’s successful Well Kg 45-1B in the Egyptian Nile Cone Semb 2009. Figure 11. Seismic flat spot and two bright spots identified in the PGS 2-D in offshore Cyprus. These DHIs are believed to occur in the same interval as in Shell’s discovery in the North Western Nile Cone Figure 12 Semb 2009. Figure 12. Large anticline on the toe of deep Nile Delta Fan with Messinian low stand Delta clastic sand faulted pre- Messinian. Gas chimneys are highly visible Montadert and Nikolaides 2010. Figure 13. Distribution of oil and gas fields and discoveries in the Eastern Mediterranean. Of interest are the 2 gas fields discovered by Shell due to their proximity to the Greek and Cypriot Herodotus Basin. BEICIP/FRANLAB 2007. Figure 15. Hydrocarbon discoveries in the Nile Cone and Southern Levantine Basin Kassinis 2008. Figure 14. A cross section of the Messinian evaporites and the Tamar sands along with the gas discoveries in Dalit 15 billion m 3 Tamar 240 billion m 3 and the Leviathan 455 billion m 3 and the anticipated Cyprus A with 300 billion m 3 Noble Energy 2010.

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Copyright © 2012 Pytheas Limited 19 January 2012 9 Pytheas Market Focus The petroleum system of the Nile Deep Sea Fan lying in deep and ultra deep water seems very promising. Shell Company has recently made a gas discovery in its deep NEMED block Kg 45-1 Kj 49-1 and La 52-1 west of the Herodotus basin Northeast Mediterranean NEMED concession Phase 12 2003 and reported a DHI in the Pliocene interval Figures 11 and 10 Semb 2009. Shell has forecasted reserves in the NEMED area of 15 tcf of gas and 4 bbloe Egypt the Western Desert and Offshore The Free Library 2010. The undiscovered oil and gas of the Nile Delta Basin Eastern Mediterranean has been assessed mean estimate by USGS 2010 using a geology-based assessment methodology at 1.8 billion barrels of oil 6 billion barrels of natural gas liquids and 223 trillion cubic feet 6.31 tcm USGS Fact Sheet 2010. The assessed province which includes part of the Greek Herodotus Basin encompasses 250000 km² of the Eastern Mediterranean Figure 16. The Nile Cone assessed units AU is thought to be sourced from thermally mature Neogene deltaic source rocks where there might also be a significant biogenic gas component Vandre et. al. 2007. The Nile Cone contains 2 oil fields and 126 gas fields. 2. 5 The Herodotus Basin Potential The boundaries of the Herodotus Basin are the Egyptian Shelf and Nile Delta in the South the Qattara Eratosthenes Fault to the East the Mediterranean Ridge to the West and the Florence Ridge to the North. The water depth ranges from 1000 meters to more than 3000 meters Woodside el. al 2002 Montadert et. al. 2010. Therefore most of the area corresponds to deep or ultra deep exploration. Sections presented by BEICIP/FRANLAB Figure 17 show a thick Pliocene and thick Messinian evaporates Biju-Duval et. al 1978. Surveys using Large Beam Sonar Swath survey indicate a large system of channels coming from the upper Nile delta and feeding the deep large fans and the turbidite lobes in the Herodotus Basin Figures 18 and 19. More recent seismic shot in Egyptian waters by Veritas show the presence of large turbiditic channels and lobes of more than 10 km in both Miocene and Pliocene sections revealing the possible existence of giant hydrocarbon fields Niazi and Dahli 2004. A section presented by Semb Semb 2009 shows very strong DHIs which demonstrates that Pliocene reservoirs above salt dome structures are charged by hydrocarbons. The probability to discover gas at this depth is higher than oil but the modeling study presented in the Abdel Aal et. al. 2000 publication concerning their deep MEMED block allows deducing that in the same stratigraphic intervals and greater water depths the potential exists for both oil and gas to be present. Many analogs of hydrocarbon generation and trapping in such deep and evaporitic basin can be presented e.g. Mexico Gulf Mauritania Equatorial Guinea Brazil Krois et al 2009. Recent work on the Deepwater province of Northwest Egypt which was carried inside the Greek portion of the Herodotus Basin confirms its high hydrocarbons potential through numerous tectonic and structural traps see Figures 20 and 21 Krois et. al. 2009. Figure 16. Location of 4 assessment units in the Nile Delta Basin Province in the Eastern Mediterranean map not definitive for political boundaries USGS image. A+B potential 223 trillion ft³ of natural gas 6.31 trillion m 3 . C potential 122 trillion ft³ of natural gas 3.45 trillion m 3 USGS Assessment 2010. Figure 17. Cross section of the Herodotus Basin and across the Cyprus Arc Biju-Duval et al. 1978.

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Copyright © 2012 Pytheas Limited 19 January 2012 10 Pytheas Market Focus The latter figure shows many specific structural and stratigraphic traps and demonstrates that the Herodotus Basin has a high potential. Geophysical surveys by TGS-NOPEC inside the Greek Herodotus Basin Figure 22 GR lines should be bought the soonest by the Greek Government in order to study further confirm the hydrocarbon potential of the basin and undertake non-exclusive seismic surveys in the region. The Greek Herodotus basin Figure23 is worth exploring The potential of the northern part of the Herodotus Basin resting at the front of the Florence Ridge remains more hypothetical because it is located far from clastic sources. Figure 19. Pliocene turbidite system deposition and Messinian canyons and Plio- Pleistocene turbiditic systems Abdel Aal et. al. 2000. Image 18. Sea bottom images from Nile Delta Mascle et al. 2006.

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Copyright © 2012 Pytheas Limited 19 January 2012 11 Pytheas Market Focus Figure 20. Location of the OMV study Obaiyed Offshore inside the Greek Herodotus Basin Dotted arrows are TGS-NOPEC GR Lines. Krois et. al. 2009. Figure 21. Herodotus Basin with 7 tectonic and structural hydrocarbon traps Krois et al. 2009.

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Copyright © 2012 Pytheas Limited 19 January 2012 12 Pytheas Market Focus 2.6 The Mud Flow Volcanoes of Southern Crete the Olimpi and United Nations Rise and their Implications for Hydrocarbon Exploration Subsea or under water mud volcanoes sometimes called hydrocarbon volcanoes are an important visible sign of gas sources feeding surrounding possible reservoir sedimentary formations. Mud volcanoes are geological formations which are created by the expulsion of pressurized gases and mud. They are encountered in tectonically Subduction Zones and Orogenic Belts and upon venting they create the hydrocarbon clathrate hydrate which is very Figure 22. Geophysical survey by TGS-NOPEC 2010. Figure 23. Potential hydrocarbon areas offshore Cyprus and the Greek Herodotus Basin IFP Institute Francais du Petrole Bruneton et al. 2009. Overview on the Hydrocarbon potential of the East Mediterranean Deep Offshore: Perspectives for Greek exploration BEICIP/FRANLAB 2007.

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Copyright © 2012 Pytheas Limited 19 January 2012 13 Pytheas Market Focus often associated with hydrocarbon deposits Wikipedia Link 1952 Jones and Drozd 1983. Rakhmanov 1987. Figure 24. Global distribution of mud volcanoes. 1 Single mud volcanoes mud volcano belts and separate mud volcano areas 2 Sediment thickness in the area out of the continental shelves a. 1-4 Km b. 4Km 3 Active compressional areas 4 Subduction zones. Dimitrov 2003 Akesson 2009. Εικόνα 1Figure 25. Distribution of Mud Volcanoes on the Black Sea anf the Mediterranean Foucher et. al. 2009.

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Copyright © 2012 Pytheas Limited 19 January 2012 14 Pytheas Market Focus Figure 26. Hydrate thicknesses in the Mediterranean Sea Praeg et. al. 2007. Figure 27. Active mud volcanoes in the Nile Cone Dupre et. al. 2008.

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Copyright © 2012 Pytheas Limited 19 January 2012 15 Pytheas Market Focus The correlation of hydrates with gas venting mud volcanoes is ubiquitous on earth Milkov 2000 Dimitrov 2003 Milkov 2005 Akesson 2008 Etiope 2009. The association of mud volcanoes and gas hydrates is found in the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean Milkov 2000 Bertolini et. al. 2003 in Azerbaijan Etiope et al. 2004 Caspian Sea Guliev et al. 2004 Yusifov and Rabinowitz 2004 Lake Baikal Samsonov et al. 2009 the Western Basin of Africa Graue 2000 Milkov 2005 Black Sea Bohrmann et al. 2003 Calabrian Arc gulf of Gadiz and Sorotkin. Trough Foucher et.al. 2009 Figures 24 and 25 above. Work by Praeg et al. 2007 shows the extent of Mediterranean gas hydrates areas and the relevant pay zones thicknesses Figure 26. Such an association between mud volcanoes Figures 27 above and 28 Dupre et al. 2008 and gas fields is found in the Nile Cone Figures 29 and 30 below Rigzone 2010 Neftegaz Ru 2010. Figure 28. The Amon Mud Volcano in the Nile Cone offshore Egypt Dupre et. al. 2008. Figure 29. Distribution of natural gas reservoirs offshore Egypt Neftegaz EU 2010 Rigzone 2010.

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Copyright © 2012 Pytheas Limited 19 January 2012 16 Pytheas Market Focus Figure 30. Location of active mud flow volcanoes MV in relation to the natural gas deposits in the Nile Cone offshore Egypt. figures 27 and 29 combined. Figure 31. Morphostructural sketch of the Mediterranean Ridge MR modified from Chaumillon et al. 1996 Robertson and Shipboard Scientific Party 1996 Cronin et al. 1997. Locations of the Prismed 2 February 1998 track map and of the study area are indicated Huguen et. al. 2004 Marine Geology.

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Copyright © 2012 Pytheas Limited 19 January 2012 17 Pytheas Market Focus In southern Crete the existence of active mud volcanoes has been also the subject of an intensive research by many scientists Cita et. 1981 Camerleghi et. al. 1992 Limonov et al. 1994 1996 Chaumillon et. al. 1996 Cronin et. al. 1997 Huguen et. al. 2004 2006 Loncke et.al. 2004 Costa et. al. 2004 Haase et. al. 2006 and many more. There are two fields with mud flow volcanoes the Olimpi with seven volcanoes Figures 31 and 32 Huguen et. al. 2004 and the United Rise with two volcanoes see Figure 33 Huguen et. al. 2004. In addition there are smaller fields such as Prometheus II see Figure 31 Pan di Zucchero and Cobblestone. The volume of gas expelled only from the Olimpi field has been estimated to range between 1.68 x 10 6 m 3 /year to 2.85 x 10 7 m 3 /year Kopf 1999. Since the age of the two volcanoes within the Olimpi field Torino and Napoli is estimated to be over a million years Robertson and Kopf 1998 a rough estimate of the expelled volume of gas can be calculated. This ranges from 1.68 x 10 12 m 3 to 28.5 x10 12 m 3 . Part of it is converted to hydrate. Based upon the existence of numerous active mud volcanoes thermogenic pock marks and/or mounds see Figures 34 and 35 Loncke et. al. 2004 has proposed the potential pre- Messinian source rocks/reservoirs for the mud cones as well as the pre-Messinian source rock/reservoirs for the gas chimneys. Roberts and Peace 2007 have shown satellite pictures where gas bubbles literally millions of bubbles derived from the activity of mud volcanoes upon reaching the sea surface burst and the oily film which surrounds them collapses onto Figure 32. Mud Volcanoes offshore Southern Crete. Backscatter data 7 superimposed on 3D seafloor relief view of the Eastern Olimpi field. Huguen et al. 2004 Marine Geology 209: 245-263. Figure 33. United Nations Rise Mud Volcano field offshore Southern Crete. Backscatter data superimposed on oblique 3D bathymetry seafloor relief of the United Nations Rise field.

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Copyright © 2012 Pytheas Limited 19 January 2012 18 Pytheas Market Focus the sea surface. All these small oil films combine together to form an oil slick that calms the waters Figure 36. Figure 34. Interpretative 3D tectonic sketch of the Central Mediterranean Ridge and the Olimpi and the Southern Belt Mud Fields. Two different source levels are proposed for the two mud fields the Olimpi Field being related to relatively shallow mud formations with high fluid contents and the Southern Field being connected to deeper mud sources with lower fluid contents Huguen et. al. 2005. Figure 35. Active mud flow volcanoes brown triangles gas chimneys brown discs thermogenic pockmarks and mounds offshore Southern Crete. The pre-Messinian source rocks/ reservoir for the mud cones brown are highly visible as well as the reservoir/source for the gas chimneys light brown are also visible Loncke et al. 2004.

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Copyright © 2012 Pytheas Limited 19 January 2012 19 Pytheas Market Focus Both Olimpi and United Nations mud volcano fields are located on the down slope of the Mediterranean Ridge towards Crete see Figure 34 where the sedimentary cover thickens to more than 10 Km Makris et. al. 2011. The origin of these thick sediment deposits is discussed in details by Dornsiepen 2001. From the above is more than obvious that a correlation between active mud volcanoes and hydrocarbon reservoirs is an established fact. As a result of the existence of many active mud volcanoes south of Crete at least nine hydrocarbon reservoirs should exist as is the case with the Nile Delta Cone Caspian and Black Seas. Hence the hydrocarbon plays and prospects of the Mediterranean Ridge should be investigated especially after the work done by Maravelis et. al. 2011. The areas worth exploring south southwest and west of the island of Crete are indicated by Maravelis et al. 2011 and the authors Figure 37. 3. Geopolitical Implications from the existence of hydrocarbon deposits in the Eastern Mediterranean and Southern Crete and their importance to the energy independence of the European Union. By 2020 the European Union will be facing a serious energy shortage not only because oil production will decrease dramatically but also because Russia and North Africa will not be able to satisfy the ever increasing demands in natural gas. This gap could be easily counterbalanced from the newly discovered hydrocarbon reserves proven and potentially existing from the Eastern Mediterranean and offshore Crete. Specifically: A. Crude Oil. Crude oil production has been steady at 86 million barrels/day since 2005 Figure 38. From this amount only 42 million barrels/day is currently available for export see Figure 39 and this amount is steadily dropping. The significant number of active mud volcanoes south of Crete indicate that hydrocarbon deposits should exist. Figure 36. Satellite picture of oil films resulting from escaping gas bubbles which are coated with oil gas bubbles are derived from active mud volcanoes in offshore Nile Cone Egypt. Roberts and Peace 2007. Figure 37. Areas for hydrocarbon exploration west and south of Crete.

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Copyright © 2012 Pytheas Limited 19 January 2012 20 Pytheas Market Focus In 2005 the exported amount was 46 million barrels/day indicating that the producing countries have increased their internal consumption. From the exported amount USA China Japan and currently South Korea absorb 25 million barrels/day BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2010. Europe requires 11 million barrels/day besides its own production of 3.5 million barrels/day. Hence the remaining World has to satisfy its needs Figure 38. Global Oil Supplies as reported by EIA’s International Petroleum Monthly by Likvern R. November 2010 Oil Drum Europe Figure 39. Trends in world oil supply/ consumption and net exports/imports Likvern R. September 2010 Oil Drum Europe

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Copyright © 2012 Pytheas Limited 19 January 2012 21 Pytheas Market Focus with 6 million barrels/day. This explains why the price of crude oil hovers around US115/barrel. According to IEA 2009 in 2020 the daily global oil production is expected to fall to 65 million barrels Figures 40 and 41. These quantities could not satisfy the EU crude oil daily needs taking into account that the free trade availability will amount to less than 25 million barrels daily an amount that could not even cover the needs of the U.S. China Japan and India together. So Europe by 2020 will not be able to source the much needed extra 11 to 12 million barrels of oil per day and the countries which will suffer the most are Portugal Ireland Italy Greece and Spain de Souza 2010. The total amount of oil needed per year is more than 4 billion barrels of oil which is equivalent to 620 billion cubic meters of natural gas. B. Natural Gas. The amount of natural gas consumed every year by the European Union amounts to 500 bcm Figure 42. Almost half of its consumption is imported from Russia 160 bcm and 90 bcm are imported from North Africa especially Algeria Libya BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2010. By 2020 the demand for natural gas in Europe will increase by 225 bcm reaching a total annual need of 845 bcm Figure 43. This demand in natural gas cannot be satisfied by either Russia – which has 44 trillion cubic meters of natural gas resources and an annual production of 600 billion cubic According to IEA global crude oil production by 2020 will not satisfy EUs needs. Global oil production will not cover the needs of the U.S. China Japan and India together either. Figure 40. Peak oil Production C.J. Campbell 2005 Figure 41. World’s liquid fuels supply by EIA 2009.

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Copyright © 2012 Pytheas Limited 19 January 2012 22 Pytheas Market Focus meters – because 2/3 of the reserves and the production are allocated for domestic uses or by Algeria and Libya since their reserves are estimated at 6.2 tcm BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2010. However this extra demand can now be satisfied from the discovered and expected resources that to lie in the Eastern Mediterranean and south of Crete basins as also estimated by the U.S. Geological Service and BEICIP / FRANLAB-IFP France. According to USGS Technical Report 2010 besides the already discovered natural gas deposits in Egypt and Israel which are around 3 tcm there is a 50 potential to discover an additional 10 tcm of natural gas in the Nile Cone and in the Levantine Basin plus an amount of at least 1.3 tcm of natural gas offshore Cyprus Semb 2009. This brings the grand total of proven and potential reserves not counting the probable reserves in the Greek Herodotus Basin and those existing in offshore southern Crete to over 14 tcm 494 trillion cubic feet of natural gas. This amounts to a 12 times more quantity than what Europe expects to receive from Azerbaijan 1.2 tcm via the Nabucco Pipeline. If 3 tcm is subtracted in order to satisfy the internal needs of Egypt Israel and Cyprus over the next 30 years the remaining amount of 11 tcm could cover EU ever increasing needs by 2020 for 35 years. The export of the southeastern Mediterranean natural gas surplus already found in the region is possible with ships that could carry compressed natural gas CNG loading it directly from offshore field floating production systems. The cargo can be unloaded either in Greece and then transferred towards the wider gas European market. In the medium-term an onshore gas liquefaction plant LNG – say in Cyprus – could be built allowing ships to transport LNG to Europe. In the long-term following further offshore discoveries in the region together with a possible development of giant shale gas reserves located in the area of Shefla onshore Israel the ability to build two or more pipelines to transport natural pipeline from Haifa Israel via Cyprus Crete and the western Greece to Italy and the EU could easily take place Figure 44. By2020 the traditional suppliers of natural gas to the EU Russia Algeria and Libya will not be able to satisfy its needs alone. The deficit demand could now be satisfied by the newly discovered and expected deposits of the Eastern Mediterranean. Figure 42. Natural gas production consumption and net imports of the European Union Likvern R. August 2010. Figure 43. Actual natural gas consumption between 2001 and 2009 of the European Union. Forecast supplies and consumption towards 2020 Likvern R. August 2010

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Copyright © 2012 Pytheas Limited 19 January 2012 23 Pytheas Market Focus 4.0 Conclusions. 4.1 In this paper the existing hydrocarbon resources and exploration activities in the Eastern Mediterranean particularly in the Nile Cone and offshore Israel and Cyprus has been presented. Further exploration and production opportunities could follow in offshore areas between Cyprus Egypt Libya and Crete have been proposed. 4.2 The Eastern Mediterranean is attracting international interest in hydrocarbon exploration and production investments based on recent giant natural gas discoveries of about 3 tcm. According to 2010 USGS reports an additional 9.5 tcm possible natural gas reserves in the Nile Cone and Levant Basin could be present along with another potential of 1.3 tcm offshore Cyprus Semp 2009. 4.3 Due to the recent natural gas findings by Shell and BP in areas adjacent to the Greek portion of the Herodotus Basin and the active exploration taking place in the Cypriot portion of the Herodotus Basin as well as the recent publication by Krois et. al. 2009 where cross sections inside the Greek Herodotus basin indicate the presence of hydrocarbon reservoirs the Greek government should investigate its potential by acquiring from TGS-NOPEC all the geophysical survey lines tagged as GR lines which have been already executed inside the Greek Herodotus Basin. It is necessary to acquire the above seismic lines having a total length of 1.500 km which already took place in 2007 inside the Greek EEZ. The lines are sold by TGS-NOPEC at prices of about €60.000 per seismic line. The data will clarify the subject of hydrocarbon accumulations. Figure 44. Trans-European gas pipeline which could carry the already discovered and the about to be discovered natural gas from the Eastern Mediterranean from either Haifa or Limassol to Europe through Greece and Italy.

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Copyright © 2012 Pytheas Limited 19 January 2012 24 Pytheas Market Focus 4.4 The existence of active mud volcanoes in Southern offshore Crete is a very serious indication of hydrocarbons presence and possible petroleum systems in this region. This is the case throughout the world e.g. Caspian Sea Gulf of Mexico Western African Basin Trinidad-Tobago and the Nile Cone where active mud volcanoes are strongly correlated with the presence of hydrocarbon deposits. The acquisition of exploration data south and around the island of Crete is absolutely necessary and urgent in order to further evaluate the presence of a working petroleum system with reservoirs seals and structures in the region. 4.5 The necessity to export surplus natural gas to Europe requires either the building of CNG or LNG ships or the construction of a pipelines which will start from Haifa Israel or Limassol Cyprus Trans-European Natural Gas Pipeline. Due to the expected possible enormous quantities of natural gas to be discovered in Eastern Mediterranean this pipelines could be more economical than the proposed Nabucco Pipeline which will carry Azeri natural gas of only about 1 tcm to Europe. This development will benefit Greece immensely and could open the way for starting hydrocarbon exploration in Southern Crete the Western Greece and the Ionian Sea.

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Copyright © 2012 Pytheas Limited 19 January 2012 25 Pytheas Market Focus The Authors Mr. Alain BRUNETON a Geologist and Geophysicist is an independent consultant. Mr. Bruneton worked with BEICIP-FRANLAB as a processing geophysicist and at its joined seismic interpretation group. At BEICIP-FRANLAB he was also in charge of its geophysical department. He has worldwide experience in basin interpretation and oil and gas field studies using modern technologies i.e. 3D and AVO as well as interpretation workstations i.e. Landmark and Kingdom Suite. Selected publication titles include: “Petroleum potential of the Niger Grabens” Journal Petroleum Geology “The structural and tectonic framework of Western Greece” Tectonophysics “AVO anomalies study in the Gharb Basin” AAPG. “The petroleum potential of East Mediterranean Offshore” “The economic and geopolitical importance of Eastern Mediterranean gas fields”. Mr. Bruneton holds a Master of Sciences in Geology and an ENSPM in Geology and Geophysics. Dr. Elias KONOFAGOS a Chemical Engineer of Oil Gas Production is the Executive Vice-President of FLOW Energy S.A. a high level EP consulting services company. He started his career with Elf Acquitaine North Sea Heimdal Gas Field Development then with Mobil North Sea in Stavanger Statfjord-B Oil Gas Field. He worked with the Public Petroleum Corporation of Greece S.A. supervision of Prinos Oil Field South Kavala Gas Field Developments and the Public Petroleum Corporation Exploration Production S.A. execution of the First Licensing Round in Greece. He also acted as International EP General Director at Hellenic Petroleum S.A. Having an extensive worldwide Oil Gas Exploration and Production experience in Managing EP assets creating value and improving business performance he published more than 80 scientific papers and studies internationally. Dr. Konofagos was awarded a PhD Docteur d’ Etat es Sciences of Chemical Engineering on Oil Gas Production by the École Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne and he is an IFP Petroleum Economics Greek Eisenhower Fellow on Oil Exploration Production Energy. Dr. Anthony E. FOSCOLOS is an Emeritus Professor at the Technical University of Crete and an Emeritus Research Scientist at the Geological Survey of Canada. Upon completing his graduate studies at the University of California Berkeley 1966 he was hired by the Geological Survey of Canada Institute of Sedimentary and Petroleum Geology to carry research in the area of hydrocarbons in Central Alberta Northeastern British Columbia the Beaufort MacKenzie Region and the Canadian Arctic Islands one third of his publications are related to these scientific activities. In 1986 he was elected as a professor at the Technical University of Crete Department of Mineral Resources Engineering. His teaching was related to the field of Inorganic and Organic Geochemistry and Organic Petrology. Dr. Foscolos also served as its Academic Vice President 1966-1997 and the Head of the Department of Mineral Resources Engineering 1988-1993. He has also been an energy consultant for the United Nations Development Program 1995-1997 and Adjunct Professor Department of Geography and Archaeology University of Calgary 1975-1986. His scientific record includes 74 publications most of them in peer review journals with a Citation Index of 243 till 2003 33 participations at International and National Conferences with presentations and posters and 14 Technical Reports for the Public Petroleum Corporation of Greece DEP-EKY Public Power Corporation of Greece S.A. DEH Institute of Mineral Exploration Greece IGME and the United Nations. A. Bruneton E. Konofagos A.E. Foscolos

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Copyright © 2012 Pytheas Limited 19 January 2012 26 Pytheas Market Focus Bibliography Alphabetically ► Abdel Aal A. El Barkooky A. Gerrits M. Meyer H. Schwander M. Zaki. 2000. Tectonic evolution of the Eastern Mediterranean Basin and its significance for hydrocarbon prospectivity in the ultradeepwater of the Nile Delta. GeoScience World. The Leading Edge v. 19 No 10 pp. 1086-1102 DOI: 10.1190/1. 1438485 2000 Society of Exploration Geophysicists. ► Akesson M 2008. Mud volcanoes - a review. Examensarbeten I Geologi vid Lunds Universitet - Berggrundsgeologi nr.219. Geologiska Institutionen Centrum for GeoBiosfarvetenskap Lunds Universitet 2008. ► BEICIP/FRANLAB 2007. New exploration opportunities offshore Cyprus. An assessment of the hydrocarbon prospectivity. Report submitted to the Ministry of Commerce Industry and Tourism Republic of Cyprus p. 26. ► Bertolini C. Buffler R. Blickwede J. 2003. 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Copyright © 2012 Pytheas Limited 19 January 2012 27 Pytheas Market Focus ► Kassinis D. 2008. Hydrocarbon activities in the Republic of Cyprus: Legal Framework and Fiscal Terms. PETEX 2008 Conference and Exhibition London 24 th November 2008 p. 27. ► Kopf A.1999. Fate of sediments during plate convergence at the Mediterranean accretionary complex: Volume balance of mud estrusion versus subduction and/or accretion. Geology v.27 No1 pp. 87-90. ► Krois P. Hanke K. Novotny B. Bayoumi T. Hussein H. Tari G. 2010. The emerging deepwater Province of Northwest Egypt. Search and Discovery 10241 AAPG International Conference Rio de Janeiro Brazil November 2009. ► Loncke L. Mascle J. Fanil Scientific Parties. 2004. Mud volcanoes gas chimneys pockmarks and mounds in the Nile deep-sea fan Eastern Mediterranean: geophysical evidence. Marine and Petroleum Geology v.21. pp. 669-689. ► Likvern R. 2010. Trends in Oil Supply/Consumption and Net Imports/Exports September 2010. ► Likvern R. 2010. 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Application of wide aperture refraction profiling WARRP for delineating the sedimentary basins and crust between Crete and Cyrenaica using Ocean Bottom Seismography. New Emerging Plays in the Eastern Mediterranean London BGS February 23-25 2011. OBS tech. specifications: www.geopro.com. ► Maravelis A. Manutsoglu E. Konstantopoulos P. Pantopoulos G. Makrodimitras G. Zampouli E. Zelilidis A. 2011. Hydrocarbon plays and prospectivity of the Mediterranean Ridge. Energy Sources In press. ► Mascle J. Sardou O. Loncke L. Migeon S. Camera L. Gaullier V. 2006. Morphostructure of the Egyptian continental margin: Insights from Swath Bathymetry Surveys. Marine Geophysical Research v. 27 pp. 49-59. ► Montadert L. Nikolaides S. 2007. The Geological structure of the Eratosthenes Continental Block and its Margins with the Levantine and Herodotus Basins Eastern Mediterranean from New Seismic Reflection Data. AAPG Search and Discovery Article 90072. 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Copyright © 2012 Pytheas Limited 19 January 2012 28 Pytheas Market Focus ► United States Geological Survey USGS 2010. Assessment of undiscovered oil and gas resources of the Levant Basin Province Eastern Mediterranean. Fact Sheet 2010-3014 March 2010. ► United States Geological Survey USGS 2010. Undiscovered oil and gas of the Nile Delta Basin Eastern Mediterranean. Fact Sheet 2010-3027. February 2010. ► Vandré C. Cramer B. Gerling P. Winsemann J. 2007. Natural gas formation in the western Nile delta Eastern Mediterranean: Thermogenic versus microbial. Organic Geochem. v. 38 issue 4 pp. 523-539. ► Woodside J. M. Mascle J. Zitter T. A. C. Limonov A. F. Ergun A. Volkonskala A. and shipboard scientists of the PRISMED II Expedition 2002. The Florence Rise Western Bend of the Cyprus Arc. Marine Geology v. 185 issue 3-4 30 June 2002 pp. 177-194. ► Wikipedia Mud Volcano – Mud volcanoes in Azerbaijan. ► Yusifov M. Rabinowitz P.D. 2004. Classification of mud volcanoes in South Caspian Basin offshore Azerbaijan. Marine Petroleum Geology v.2 pp. 965-975. Disclaimer The above notes have been compiled to assist you however actions taken as a result of this document are at the discretion of the reader and not PYTHEAS or the Authors. All rights reserved. The material in this publication may not be copied stored or transmitted without the prior permission of the publishers. Short extracts may be quoted provided the source is fully acknowledged.

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