civco asprs2005

The Urban Growth Management Initiative:Preliminary Results: 

The Urban Growth Management Initiative: Preliminary Results Daniel L. Civco and Anna Chabaeva Center for Land use Education And Research (CLEAR) Natural Resources Management and Engineering University of Connecticut Shlomo Angel Robert F. Wagner School of Public Service, New York University Woodrow Wilson School of Public & International Affairs, Princeton University Stephen Sheppard Department of Economics Williams College A project sponsored by the World Bank Urban Development Division

Background: 

Background The United Nation predicts that the population of developing countries is growing at an annual rate of 2.3% Within 30 years, that population will double from 1.94 billion in 2000 to 3.88 billion in 2030 The built environment, however, will more than double during this period Yet, there is little systematic data to estimate, let alone to explain, current and future levels of urban expansion

United Nations Urban Land Management Initiative Objectives: 

United Nations Urban Land Management Initiative Objectives Study the causes and consequences of urban expansion Prepare viable models of minimalist urban growth management

Urban Mapping Objectives: 

Urban Mapping Objectives Use moderate resolution satellite remote sensing data to map the extent of urban land for a sample of 120 cities around the world Two time periods Circa 1990 and 2000 Provide complementary data for use in modeling and understanding the causes and consequences of urban expansion physical, economic and demographic data

Study Cities: 

Study Cities A stratified sample of 120 cities was selected from a universe of 2,719 cities with metro-area population in excess of 100,000 in the year 2000 Three important characteristics were used to define the strata: the world region in which the city is located city population size its level of economic development, measured by national per capita income The universe of cities was divided into nine regions, four size categories, and four per–capita income groups

Study Cities: 

Study Cities

Study Cities: 

Study Cities

Data: 

Data Landsat TM and ETM Circa 1990 and 2000 Proximal to date of nearest census Near anniversary As cloud-free as possible USGS Global Visualization Viewer Earth Observing System Data Gateway EarthSat’s GeoCover Ortho Landsat TM Product GeoCover-Ortho Stock Scenes GeoCover-Ortho Custom Projection

Data: 

Data Moscow October 1991 Moscow October 2002 Administrative Units from the Center for International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN) of the Columbia University’s Earth Institute

Data: 

Data Moscow October 1991 Moscow October 2002

Data: 

Data GeoCover Landcover Data Urban Growth Management Initiative Data Source: Landsat ETM, 5 January 2000 Addis Ababa, Etiopia

Data: 

Data GeoCover Landcover Data Urban Growth Management Initiative Data Source: Landsat ETM, 21 May 2000 Tel Aviv, Israel

Methods: 

Methods Cluster Done? T1 Image 50 Clusters Label & Recode 7 Classes Onscreen Edit Extract Confused Recode T2 Image Mask T1 Urban T2 Urban

Methods: 

Methods Moscow

Methods: 

Methods Moscow October 1991 Moscow October 2002

Results To Date: 

Results To Date Average time span between T1 and T2 11.0 Years Minimum Annual Urban Growth 0.7 % (Astrakhan, Russia) Maximum Annual Urban Growth 20.1 % (Yiyang, China) Mean Annual Urban Growth 4.8 % Median Annual Urban Growth 3.3 % Based on 86 Cities

Results To Date: 

Results To Date

Urban Growth: 

Urban Growth

Urban Growth: 

Urban Growth 36 of 86

Urban Growth: 

Urban Growth 22 of 86

Urban Growth: 

Urban Growth 17 of 86

Urban Growth: 

Urban Growth 11 of 86

Urban Growth Examples: 

Urban Growth Examples Yiyang, China

Urban Growth Examples: 

Urban Growth Examples Leipzig, Germany

Urban Growth Examples: 

Urban Growth Examples Houston, Texas

Urban Growth Examples: 

Urban Growth Examples Yulin, China

Preliminary Accuracy Assessment: 

Preliminary Accuracy Assessment Overall Kappa 0.8417 12 City Sample of T1 Classifications

Preliminary Accuracy Assessment: 

Preliminary Accuracy Assessment Overall Kappa 0.8160 12 City Sample of T2 Classifications

Observations: 

Observations The Urban Growth Management Initiative: Confronting the Expected Doubling of the Size of Cities in Developing Countries in the Next Thirty Years Recent UN Predictions 6.5 to 9.1 Billion Humans in Next 50 Years Between 100% and 144% over the next 30 years

Current Status: 

Current Status 100 + Metropolitan Areas Fully Classified T1 and T2 Change Analysis Performed for 86 Accuracy Assessment Conducted on 10%

Future: 

Future Completion of all 120 cities (by end of March) Establish present global norms of urban land growth for different types of cities Examine land consumption and urban poverty overcrowding, access to piped water and sewerage, and access to home ownership Investigate physical constraints to urban growth Elevation, slope, terrain ruggedness, water barriers Develop enhancements to urban land cover classification and characterization Make data available on the Web

Acknowledgments: 

Acknowledgments Dr. Robert Buckley The Transport and Urban Development Department, Urban Development Division, World Bank Williams College Students Tomoko Harigaya, Wei Wang, Vladimir Andonov, Syed Kashif Akhtar, Victoria Wolff, Peng (Bruce) Ou, Timothy Crawley CLEAR Staff and Graduate Students Jason Parent, Scott Bighinatti, James Hurd

Acknowledgments: 

Acknowledgments University of Connecticut Students from Fall 2004 NRME 237 Introductory Remote Sensing

The Urban Growth Management Initiative:Preliminary Results: 

The Urban Growth Management Initiative: Preliminary Results A project sponsored by the World Bank Urban Development Division Daniel L. Civco and Anna Chabaeva Center for Land use Education And Research (CLEAR) Natural Resources Management and Engineering University of Connecticut Shlomo Angel Robert F. Wagner School of Public Service, New York University Woodrow Wilson School of Public & International Affairs, Princeton University Stephen Sheppard Department of Economics Williams College