lecture DEMOGRAPHY 2011-12

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Demography & Population Dynamics Pakistan ...... (eyemate@facebook.com)

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DEMOGRAPHY & POPULATION DYNAMICS:

DEMOGRAPHY & POPULATION DYNAMICS DR. RIZWAN SAEED (MBBS, MPH, DOMS, MBA)

DEMOGRAPHY:

DEMOGRAPHY

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DEMOS = PEOPLE GRAPHOS = WRITE / RECORD / DRAWING “ Demography is that branch of social science, which deals with the statistical study of size, structure and distribution of populations, along with the spatial and temporal changes in them in response to birth, migration, aging and death. ” Demographic analysis can be applied to whole societies or to groups defined by criteria such as education, nationality, religion and ethnicity. In academia, demography is often regarded as a branch of either anthropology, economics, or sociology

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Study of human population concerning their Size ( total no. of persons in specific area in sp. time) Composition (breakdown according to age,sex , literacy level , income etc) Distribution (arrangement of people in space at a given time e.g. urban % ,rural%, etc.) Structure ( distribution among age, sex grouping etc. e.g.<5 yr. or >65yr male? , female?) etc. Changes / Behaviour within them (pop. growth, pop. Decline, Positive growth, Zero growth, Negative growth etc.) POPULATION STUDIES Social effects Economic effects Health factors Geographic Environmental

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Also concerned with characteristics of human beings such as : Ethnicity (race / language) Social characteristics (literacy, marital status, educational attainment) Religion SOURCES OF DEMOGRAPHIC DATA Census Surveys Registration (birth / death )

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CARRYING CAPACITY: The maximum sustainable size of a resident population in a given ecosystem CRUDE RATE: rate of any demographic event computed for an entire population

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FERTILITY FECUNDITY MORTALITY NET MIGRATION URBANIZATION POPULATION GROWTH RATE POPULATION DOUBLING TIME REPLACEMENT LEVEL FERTILITY (ZERO POP. GROWTH) MOMENTUM OF POPULATION GROWTH DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION CENSUS

FERTILITY :

FERTILITY Actual reproductive performance (behavior) of a women / couple. It is generally confined to women CRUDE BIRTH RATE (CBR) GENERAL FERTILITY RATE (GFR) AGE SPECIFIC FERTILITY RATE (ASFR) TOTAL FERTILITY RATE (TFR) Pak= 5.6 GROSS REPRODUCTION RATE(GRR) NET REPRODUCTION RATE (NRR) ORIGINAL RATES DERIVED RATES

Fertility Fecundity:

Fertility Fecundity CHILD BEARING PERFORMANCE CHILD BEARING CAPACITY Voluntary biological process Inherent biological capacity Varies among individual depending upon their reproductive behavior Fecundity is almost uniformly distributed in both sexes Influenced by various social and biological factors (age at marriage, duration of marriage, spacing of children, child survival, educational status, economic stability, cultural beliefs & practices) Fecundity of man starts at puberty and continues throughout life; it attains its maximum during second and third decade of life and diminishes gradually Fecundity of woman starts and menarche and ends with menopause Considerably reduced by various methods of fertility control available to couples Fecundity of a couple is essentially determined by fecundity of female partners Increase in inter-pregnancy intervals reduces fertility Equally fecund women demonstrates variable levels of fertility in response to variable levels of control on their child bearing performance

RATE & RATIO:

RATE & RATIO

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if you get one good shot on a roll of 36, you were doing good. That’s the ratio : 36:1 ., or 1/36 , 1 to 36 When resting, the average adult human heart beats at about 70 bpm (males) and 75 bpm (females); however, this rate varies among people and can be significantly lower in endurance athletes…. 10 km per 2 h, $6 per 3 h Example: A rate is one kind of ratio. Ratio: the relation between two similar magnitudes with respect to the number of times the first contains the second; proportional relation.("the relationship in quantity, amount, or size between two or more things“) Rate: a certain quantity or amount of one thing considered in relation to a unit of another thing and used as a standard or measure ( " a fixed ratio between two things“)

Abortion Rate:

Abortion Rate No. of abortions occurring during a given year per 1000 women of reproductive age Abortion Ratio It is the ratio between the no. of abortions occurring in a given year and the no. of live births Maternal Mortality Rate Number of maternal deaths per 100,000 live births [PAKISTAN=500/100,000] Maternal Mortality Ratio The number of maternal deaths related to childbearing divided by the number of live births (or by the number of live births + fetal deaths) in that year.

CBR = NO. OF LIVE BIRTHS IN A YEAR x 1000 MID – YEAR POPULATION :

CBR = NO. OF LIVE BIRTHS IN A YEAR x 1000 MID – YEAR POPULATION GFR = NO. OF LIVE BIRTHS IN A YEAR x 1000 NO. OF FEMALES AGES (15-49 yrs) ASFR = NO. OF LIVE BITHS IN A YEAR TO WOMEN AGE –X x 1000 NO. OF WOMEN AGED-X TFR = SUM OF ASFRs (15-49 yrs) [PAK= 3.17 ---- 2011est.] [ average no. of children a women would have if she was to pass through her reproductive years bearing children at same rates as the women now in each age group ] Fertility rate is high in 20-30 yrs of age in all countries

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Dependency Ratio : = Children + Elderly X 100 Working Age = Pop below 15 + 65 & above X 100 Pop 16 – 64 years Dependency Ratio of Pakistan = 83.34% Dependency Ratio of UK = 66.5 % Dependency Ratio of Japan = 44 % Sex Ratio: The overall sex ratio is simply the ratio of males to females in the population & is calculated by taking the number of males in a population & dividing it by the number of females in the same population Sex Ratio = Number of Males X 100 Number of Females

Vital Index ( Birth / Death Ratio):

Vital Index ( Birth / Death Ratio) No. of live births in a specified period at a specific place x 100 No. of deaths at same place and period EXAMPLE: No. of live births in city (x) = 450 No. of deaths in same city and period = 300 V.I. = 450 / 300 x 100 = 150 If V.I. = 100 (births = death population is neither increasing nor decreasing) If V.I. > 100 (births > deaths ; population increasing) If V.I. < 100 (births < deaths ; population decreasing) Population Density = No. of persons / sq. mile Pakistan = 206

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Population Change = Mortality + Fertility + (net) Migration Pt 1 = Pt₀ + (B – D) + (IM - OM) Pt 1 = Future Population Pt₀ = Present Population Population change can be due to Natural Reasons (NATURAL INCREASE) Natural Increase = No. of live births (B) - No. of residents died (D); [ B-D] Migration Net Migration = In migration (IM)– Out migration(OM) ; [IM – OM] POPULATION GROWTH (PG) = NATURAL INCREASE + NET MIGRATION PG = (B –D) + (IM – OM)

How to measure population in between Census Years:

How to measure population in between Census Years Pt 1 = Pt₀ ( 1 + r ) t WHERE Pt ₀ = present population Pt 1 = future population r = growth rate per person (in proportion) t = no. of years between t ₀ and t 1 EXAMPLE : We want to calculate the population of a community in year 2012 (Pt 1 ), Population of a community is 20,000 in year 2006 (Pt 0 ) and annual GR is 3% P(2012) = P (2006) (1+ 3 / 100) 6 = 20000 (1+ 3 /100 ) 6 = 20000(1+0.030) 6 = 23880 OR P t 1 = P t 0 [ 1 + (GR / 100 x No. of years)] = 20000 [1+ (3/100 x 6)] = 20000 (1 + 0.18) = 23600

FECUNDITY:

FECUNDITY Physiological capability (potential) of a women to reproduce Varies by age, nutrition and health

MORTALITY:

MORTALITY Experience of a population in terms of deaths. IMR MMR

NET MIGRATION:

NET MIGRATION Total no. of persons added or subtracted from a population as a result of combined effect of immigration and emigration Net Migration = In-migration (IM)– Out migration(OM) ; [IM – OM] (Immigration – Emigration) Migration rate = No. of migrants x 1000 Total population Net migration rate PAKISTAN -2.17 migrant(s)/1,000 population (2011 est.)

POPULATION PYRAMID:

PRACTICAL PRESENTATION OF AGE–SEX COMPOSITION OF A SOCIETY (MALE / FEMALE ) POPULATION PYRAMID

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POPULATION STRUCTURE The population pyramid displays the age and sex structure of a country or given area Population in Five Year Age bands Usually, but not always, In % to make for easier comparisons between countries OLD DEPENDANTS ECONOMICALLY ACTIVE YOUNG DEPENDANTS FEMALES To the right MALES To the left

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What Population Pyramids Show Us KEY slope of pyramid indicate the death rate width of the base is related to birth rate/fertility rate proportions of men and women can suggest male or female migrations height of graph can indicate life expectancy (ignore the very thin end of the wedge as occurs on graph B as these people are a definite minority) "kinks" indicate dramatic reductions in birth rate or increases in death rate in the past area of graph indicates total population - compare areas of different population age groups or different sex on one graph The overall shape of the population pyramid can indicate whether it is an Economically More Developed Country or Economically Less Developed Country Economically More Developed Country Economically Less Developed Country

Importance of Population Pyramids:

Importance of Population Pyramids

Population pyramid of a less developed nation:

Population pyramid of a less developed nation Population Pyramid of Nigeria (1995)

Less Developed Countries Have More Young People Relative to Elderly.:

© 2008 POPULATION REFERENCE BUREAU Less Developed Countries Have More Young People Relative to Elderly. Source: United Nations Population Division, World Population Prospects: The 2006 Revision . Population by Age and Sex, Less Developed Countries: 2008

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A broad based population pyramid is: Usually agricultural with problems of overpopulation . Many Dependents (mainly <15 years age) A BROAD-BASED PYRAMID means that POPULATION needs to: increase food production build more homes & schools plan for more job opportunities for the young in future implement birth control program /campaigns (challenges of a broad based population pyramid)

Population pyramid of a developed nation:

Population pyramid of a developed nation Population Pyramid of Sweden (1995)

More Developed Countries Have Fewer Young People Relative to Elderly.:

© 2008 POPULATION REFERENCE BUREAU More Developed Countries Have Fewer Young People Relative to Elderly. Source: United Nations Population Division, World Population Prospects: The 2006 Revision . Population by Age and Sex, More Developed Countries: 2008

Importance of Population Pyramids:

Importance of Population Pyramids A NARROW BASED POPULATION PYRAMID MEANS: Birth rate and Death rate low Work out incentives to encourage more births Hiring foreign labour Proper medical services & health care for the aged

DEMOGRAPHIC CYCLE:

5 stages through which a nation passes during transition HIGH STATIONARY STAGE ( ↑ CBR & CDR) e.g Amazon valley) EARLY EXPANDING STAGE ( ↑CBR & ↓CDR) e.g Bangladesh) LATE EXPANDING STAGE ( ↓CBR & ↓↓ CDR) e.g India/Pakistan) LOW STATIONARY STAGE ( ↓CBR &↓ CDR) e.g. Sweden 0 GR) DECLINING STAGE ( ↓↓ CBR & ↓CDR) e.g. Germany (– ve GR) DEMOGRAPHIC CYCLE

DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION:

DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION A look at global demographic situation suggests that some countries have passed through high fertility and high mortality condition to a low fertility and mortality condition both aiming at low growth of population. These two conditions are referred as old & new balance, with an in-between period of imbalance as described below: OLD BALANCE HIGH FERTILITY HIGH MORTALITY NEW BALANCE LOW FERTILITY LOW MORTALITY IMBALANCE HIGH FERTILITY LOW MORTALITY ( POOR HEALTH CONDITION , NOT COMPFORTABLE LIFE STYLE) GOOD HEALTH CONDITIONS, COMFORTABLE LIFE STYLE (PERIOD OF RAPID NATURAL INCREASE)

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THIS GROWTH IS HELPFUL FOR UNDER POPULATED NATIONS WHICH NEEDS MORE MANPOWER, EXPANDING MARKETS ; HOWEVER IT EVENTUALLY RESULTS IN TOO FAST GROWTH OF POPULATION LEADING TO ECONOMIC, POLITICAL AND SOCIAL CHAOS. A NO. OF DEVELOPING COUNTRIES e.g. PAKISTAN & MANY AFRICAN COUNTRIES ARE IN THIS PHASE OF DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION (LATE EXPANDING) THIS GROWTH IS HELPFUL FOR UNDER POPULATED NATIONS WHICH NEEDS MORE MANPOWER, EXPANDING MARKETS ; HOWEVER IT EVENTUALLY RESULTS IN TOO FAST GROWTH OF POPULATION LEADING TO ECONOMIC, POLITICAL AND SOCIAL CHAOS. A NO. OF DEVELOPING COUNTRIES e.g. PAKISTAN & MANY AFRICAN COUNTRIES ARE IN THIS PHASE OF DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION (LATE EXPANDING)

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Demographic gap is the difference between birth rate and death rate that develops when a country undergoes demographic transition In a demographic cycle, as the country develops and the living conditions improve, there is first a decrease in the death rate in the population But the birth rate continues to remain at a high level This results in a demographic gap and a resultant increase in the total size of population The demographic gap is maintained till the birth rate and death rates become equal and the population size becomes stable

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There is some merit in including or considering a Stage 5 today with a declining population Population Pyramids ( Demographic Transition Models) Stage 1 Stage 2 Stage 3 Stage 4 Both birth rates and Death rates are High population growth rates are slow but population Is usually restored Due to high birth rate. Short life expectancy Scotland before 1760 New Guinea Remote parts of Amazonia Scotland 1760 - 1830 Republic of Congo Population continues to grow but at slower rate. Low C Death Rate. Dramatically declining Crude Birth Rate . Scotland 1870 -1950 Algeria, Tunisia Morocco IMPLICATIONS IMPLICATIONS IMPLICATIONS IMPLICATIONS Low Crude Birth Rate and Crude Death Rate Higher dependency ratio and longer life expectancy Crude Death Rate does Rise slightly because of The ageing population Scotland today. Japan, USA High stationary Population starts to grow at an exponential rate due to fall in Crude Death Rate. More living In middle age. Life expectancy rises Infant mortality rate falls. Early expanding Late expanding Late stationary

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According to Malthusian theory of population increase  population increase in geometric ratio where as food supply increase in arithmetic ratio . This disharmony would lead to widespread poverty and starvation which would only be checked by natural occurrences such as disease, high infant mortality, famine, war or moral restraint. His main contribution is in the agricultural sector. According to this theory there are two steps to control the population, PREVENTIVE AND POSITIVE CHECK . preventive means control in birth rate, use of different methods to control birth and positive check means natural calamities, war etc.

Pakistan population now 184 million [Indo-Asian News Service Islamabad, October 29, 2010] :

The population of Pakistan has gone up to 184 million this year from 119 million in 1990, a report said. The latest report of the State Bank of Pakistan said the country’s population has increased to 184 million this year with an annual growth rate of more than two per cent, which makes up for more than 2.5 per cent of the world's population. According to the report, the country’s contribution towards world’s population increased from 2.25 percent in 1990 to 2.69 percent in 2010. The News reported Friday that Pakistan has got the highest average fertility rate for 2005-10 along with the highest household size (6.8) and the second highest density after India amongst the six most populous countries. India has a population of about 1.2 billion people. “This is despite the fact that various governments have tried to contain high population growth rate,” the bank report said. The report went on to say that Pakistan is currently in the third stage of demographic transition of moderate growth where birth rate and death rate both decline and the pace of increase in population gets slow. Pakistan population now 184 million [ Indo-Asian News Service Islamabad, October 29, 2010]

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URBANIZATION

Urbanization, urbanisation or urban drift is the physical growth of urban areas as a result of global change. Urbanization is also defined by the United Nations as movement of people from rural to urban areas with population growth equating to urban migration:

Urbanization , urbanisation or urban drift is the physical growth of urban areas as a result of global change. Urbanization is also defined by the United Nations as movement of people from rural to urban areas with population growth equating to urban migration

Increase in urban population is due to: :

Increase in urban population is due to: ↑ births Rural migration Attractive living Employment opportunities Health Education Transport Entertainment etc.

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Beijing

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chicago

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hongkong

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london

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dhaka

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NY

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singapore

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seattle

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toronto

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LA

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miami

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mumbai

INDIA:

INDIA 1901 2001 urban rural urban rural 11 % 89% 31% 69%

Pakistan:

Pakistan urban population: 36% of total population (2010) rate of urbanization: 3.1% annual rate of change (2010-15 est.) Net migration Rate: -2 migrant(s)/1,000 population (2012 est.) country comparison to the world: 164

Population growth rate: 1.551% (2012 est.) Birth Rate: 24.3 births/1,000 population (2012 est.) Death Rate : 6.8 deaths/1,000 population (July 2012 est.) Life expectancy : Total population: 66.35 years male: 64.52 years female: 68.28 years (2012 est.) Physicians density : 0.813 physicians/1,000 population (2009) Hospital bed density: 0.6 beds/1,000 population (2009) People living with HIV/AIDS: 98,000 (2009 est.):

Population growth rate: 1.551% (2012 est.) Birth Rate: 24.3 births/1,000 population (2012 est.) Death Rate : 6.8 deaths/1,000 population (July 2012 est.) Life expectancy : T otal population: 66.35 years male: 64.52 years female: 68.28 years (2012 est.) Physicians density : 0.813 physicians/1,000 population (2009) Hospital bed density: 0.6 beds/1,000 population (2009) People living with HIV/AIDS: 98,000 (2009 est.)

urbanization:

urbanization A community is called as Urban if : Population is > 5000 75% of male population is working in non-agricultural occupation Population density is at least 400/sq.km Population ≥ 10 million  megacity

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70609 19333 3.2 2.2 16 11 7 43 42 27 51 60 65 3.5 36 4.2 3.3 Population (thousands) Population annual growth rate (%) Crude death rate Crude birth rate Life expectancy Total fertility rate % of population urbanized Average annual growth rate of urban population (%) 2007 under 18 under 5 1970–1990 1990–2007 1970 1990 2007 1970 1990 2007 1970 1990 2007 2007 2007 1970–1990 1990–2007 SOME DEMOGRAPHIC INDICATORS OF PAISTAN 187,342,721 (July 2011 est.) 1.573% 6.92 deaths/1,000 population 24.81 births/1,000 population total population: 65.99 Y ears male: 64.18 yr female: 67.9 yr 3.17 children born / woman 36% URBAN+RURAL 1.573% (2011 est.)

Demographic Data and Estimates for PAKISTAN:

Demographic Data and Estimates for PAKISTAN 190 (July 2012 est.) 24.3 6.8 2.2 -2 228.9 295.2 71 61.27 74 3.07

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Total Midyear Population: Pakistan Year Population 2012 190,291,129

Composition of Population:

Composition of Population Size = quantity of population Composition = quality of population Age Sex Literacy level Dependency ratio Occupation Socio-economic status Living conditions (housing) Marital status Language Family size Religion Culture etc

Population Dynamics:

Population Dynamics study of factors responsible for the changes (size, composition, distribution) of population i.e. Marriages Fertility Child woman ratio Mortality Migration Population Explosion High birth rate Low death rate Population stabilization (either↑ death rate or ↓ birth rate, as death rate cannot be increase so birth rate has to be decreased by birth control & non birth control measures)

As long as natural resources (water, soil, minerals, forests etc) of country are able to support and sustain the population by providing the basic needs (food, shelter, cloth)  POPULATION GROWTH but when growth is unable to be supported by natural resources  POPULATION EXPLOSION / POPULATION BOMB :

As long as natural resources (water, soil, minerals, forests etc) of country are able to support and sustain the population by providing the basic needs (food, shelter, cloth)  POPULATION GROWTH but when growth is unable to be supported by natural resources  POPULATION EXPLOSION / POPULATION BOMB

Causes of High Birth Rate: early onset of puberty weather universality of marriage early marital age < 19 yrs. high proportion of young adults (potential parents) social and cultural factors e.g poverty, illiteracy, ignorance, poor living standards, lack of knowledge about family planning, belief to have son, religious factors :

Causes of High Birth Rate: early onset of puberty weather universality of marriage early marital age < 19 yrs. high proportion of young adults (potential parents) social and cultural factors e.g poverty, illiteracy, ignorance, poor living standards, lack of knowledge about family planning, belief to have son, religious factors

Causes of low death rate: :

Causes of low death rate: Decrease frequency of natural calamities Advancements in medical sciences Health education Better health care facilities Launching of various national health programs International aid etc

Hazards of Population explosion:

Hazards of Population explosion Physical hazards (housing , environment, pollution) Psychological hazards Social hazards (alcoholism, broken homes, corruption, divorces, drug abuse, gambling) Anti-social activities ( theft, murder, sex-crimes (rape-prostitution) robbery, child-abuse, juvenile delinquency) Miscellaneous hazards (STDs, malnutrition, infections, epidemics, HTN due to stress Thus population explosion is not only a health problem but a social, economic and demographic problem also )

A - Z:

A - Z

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Age structure. The distribution of a population according to age, usually by 5-year age groups. Age-specific fertility rate. The number of births during a year to women in a particular age group, usually per 1,000 women in a 5-year age group at midyear. Aging. An increase in the proportion of the population in the older ages. May also be measured as an increase in the median age of the population. Births. The number of live births occurring during a given calendar year. Birth rate. The average annual number of births during a year per 1,000 population at midyear. Also known as the crude birth rate. Coale-Demeny model life tables. A series of life tables depicting standard (or model) age patterns of mortality and changes in those patterns at different overall levels of mortality. These series were developed for four "regions" (North, East, South, and West) based on the degree to which the patterns reflected data from those regions of Europe. The models were based on data from all continents, but primarily from Europe.

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Cohort. A group of individuals born in the same calendar year or group of years. Also referred to as a birth cohort. Components of change (of population). Fertility, mortality, and migration. Crude death rate. The average annual number of deaths during a year per 1,000 population at midyear. Death rate. The average annual number of deaths during a year per 1,000 population at midyear. Also known as the crude death rate. Dependency ratios. A population’s dependency ratio, also known as the age dependency ratio and the total dependency ratio, is the combined child population (people under age 15) and elderly population (people ages 65 and above) per 100 people ages 15-64 (people “of labor force age”). The youth dependency ratio is the number of people under age 15 per 100 people ages 15-64. The elderly, or old age, dependency ratio is the number of people 65 and over per 100 people 15-64. Dependency ratios are also referred to as support ratios. Dependent age groups. People under age 15 and people 65 years of age or older.

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Gross reproduction rate per woman. The average number of daughters that would be born alive to a hypothetical cohort of women if they lived to the end of their reproductive years and if they experienced the some age-specific fertility throughout their lives that women in each age group experience in a given year or period of years. Growth rate. The average annual percent change in the population, resulting from a surplus (or deficit) of births over deaths and the balance of migrants entering and leaving a country. The rate may be positive or negative. Also known as population growth rate or average annual rate of growth. Infant mortality rate. The number of deaths of infants under 1 year of age from a cohort of 1,000 live births. Denoted 1q0 or IMR, it is the probability of dying between birth and exact age 1. Life expectancy at birth. The average number of years a group of people born in the same year can be expected to live if mortality at each age remains constant in the future. Life table. A statistical table that follows a hypothetical cohort of 100,000 people born at the same time as they progress through successive ages, with the cohort reduced from one age to the next according to a set of death rates by age until all people eventually die. Median age. The midpoint age that separates the younger half of a population from the older half.

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Midyear population. The population estimate for July 1 of the given year. Modern methods of contraception. Condoms, IUD’s, pills, vaginal methods ( spermicides , diaphragms, or caps), injectables , and voluntary sterilization of a woman or her partner. More developed countries. The “more developed” countries and areas include all of North America and Europe plus Japan, Australia, and New Zealand. This category matches the “more developed” classification employed by the United Nations. Natural increase. The difference between the number of births and the number of deaths. Net migration rate. The difference between the number of migrants entering and those leaving a country in a year, per 1,000 midyear population. May also be expressed in percent. A positive figure is known as a net immigration rate and a negative figure as a net emigration rate. Net number of migrants. The difference between the number of migrants entering and those leaving a country in a year. A positive figure is known as net immigration and a negative figure as net emigration.

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Pandemic. A global epidemic. Population pyramid. A graphical representation of the age and sex distribution of a population. Numbers or proportions of males and females in each age group are plotted as horizontal bars with the males on the left and females on the right. Pyramids may be constructed to show single years of age or, as with the IDB pyramids, 5-year age groups. Rate of natural increase. The difference between the crude birth rate and the crude death rate, but usually expressed as a percent rather than per 1,000 population. Sex ratio at birth. The ratio of male to female births. Total fertility rate. The average number of children that would be born per woman if all women lived to the end of their childbearing years and bore children according to a given set of age-specific fertility rates. Under-5 mortality. Number of deaths of children under 5 years of age from a cohort of 1,000 live births. Denoted 5q0, it is the probability of dying between birth and exact age 5. Vital events. Births and deaths.

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Demographic Indicators 2012 1995 2005 2015 2025 Population Midyear population (in thousands) 190,291 134,185 169,279 199,086 228,385 Growth rate (percent) 1.6 2.8 1.7 1.5 1.3 Fertility Total fertility rate (births per woman) 3.1 5.7 4.0 2.8 2.2 Crude birth rate (per 1,000 population) 24 38 29 23 19 Births (in thousands) 4,624 5,155 4,941 4,495 4,380

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Demographic Indicators 2012 1995 2005 2015 2025 Mortality Life expectancy at birth (years) 66 60 64 67 71 Infant mortality rate (per 1,000 births) 61 96 76 56 40 Under 5 mortality rate (per 1,000 births) 81 137 103 73 51 Crude death rate (per 1,000 population) 7 11 8 6 6 Deaths (in thousands) 1,294 1,428 1,347 1,292 1,368 Migration Net migration rate (per 1,000 population) -2 0 -4 -2 -0 Net number of migrants (in thousands) -381 32 -635 -307 -98

POPULATION DENSITIES:

POPULATION DENSITIES

POPULATION GROWTH RATE:

POPULATION GROWTH RATE Rate at which a given population is expected to increase in a given period of time. It is shown in % age per year . GR= CBR – CDR POPULATION MOMENTUM = POPULATION x GROWTH RATE If Pakistan fertility declines to replacement level, even then population of Pakistan will continue to grow for 40 years.

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The growth of the world population is now slowing down, but the total population will still increase massively in the near future. The world population is projected to increase by 2.6 billion from 2005, to reach 9.1 billion in 2050. This additional population is equivalent in size to the combined present day populations of China and India!

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During this period there will be little change in the population of the more developed regions of the world, most of the population growth taking place in developing countries. By 2050, 86 per cent of the world population is expected to be living in the less developed regions of the world. Now the UN prepares various projections of future population growth, which have different assumptions about fertility, mortality and migration

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The urban population of the world is continuing to grow faster than the total world population. In 2003 about 48 per cent of the world population lived in urban settlements. By 2030, the world urban population, 3 billion in 2003, is expected to grow to five billion. In contrast, the rural population during the same period is expected to decline slightly from 3.3 billion to 3.2 billion.

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Country Population Country Population China 1,311 Pakistan 166 India 1,122 Bangladesh 147 US 299 Russia 142 Indonesia 225 Nigeria 135 Brazil 187 Japan 128 The world population in 2006 The world population in October 2006 was around six and a half billion. The U.S. Census bureau puts it at 6,554 million. The Population Reference Bureau (PRB) puts it at 6,555 million. Both these estimates are mid-year. The PRB gives this data on the 10 countries with the largest populations (millions):

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The year 2008 will mark a watershed in the complex and ongoing urban revolution. For the first time in history, more than 50 percent of the world's people will live in urban areas. And the current rate of urbanization is such that, if it holds, the urban share of the global population could reach 60 percent by 2030, according to UN projections

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International migration is projected to remain high during the first half of the present century, although after 2010 net migration to the more developed regions of the world is expected to continue at a lower level than recently, around 2.1 million a year instead of the high 2.6 million experienced in the 1990–2000 period. The more developed regions are expected to remain n et receivers of international migrants , the major net receiving countries being (annual numbers) USA (1.1 million), Germany (204,000), Canada (201,000), the UK (133,000) , Italy (120,000) and Australia (100,000). The countries with the greatest net emigration are projected to be China (–333,000), Mexico (–304,000), India (–245,000), the Philippines (–180,000), Pakistan (–173,000) and Indonesia (–168,000)

FAMILY SIZE ?:

FAMILY SIZE ?

FAMILY SIZE:

FAMILY SIZE Total number of children in a family Sex Ratio no of males / 100 females in a population

Recording the data of births and deaths in a community continuosly after 6 months survey :

Recording the data of births and deaths in a community continuosly after 6 months survey sample registration system

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Most significant indicator of fertility is net reproduction rate (NRR)

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The Net Reproduction Ratio is the expected number of daughters, per newborn prospective mother, who may or may not survive to and through the ages of childbearing. A stable population , one that has had constant crude birth and death rates for such long time that the percentage of people in every age class remains constant, or equivalently, the population pyramid has an unchanging structure. A stationary population , one that is both stable and unchanging in size (the difference between crude birth rate and crude death rate is zero).

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According to the national health policy , a sub-centre caters to population in hilly and tribal areas of ?  3000

measures of primordial prevention of hypertension :

measures of primordial prevention of hypertension fats reduction restrain smoking regular physical exercise dietary changes

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A slum , as defined by the United Nations Human Settlements Program ( UN–HABITAT ), is a run-down area of a city characterized by substandard housing and squalor and lacking in tenure security. According to the United Nations, one billion people worldwide live in slums. S L U M

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The young age dependency ratio (YDR) is the number of people aged under 20 (expressed as a percentage of the population aged 20–59). The old age dependency ratio (ODR) is the number of people aged 60 and over (expressed as a percentage of the population aged 20–59). If we add up the young age and old age dependency ratio, we get the total age dependency ratio (TDR) , i.e. the number of people aged 0-19 and 60 and over (expressed as a percentage of the population aged 20-59). Sometimes the relationship between working age and older age populations is expressed as the potential support ratio (PSR). Thus if we take the working aged population to be 15–64, the PSR is the ratio of the number of people in the working age groups (15–64) to people who are 65 or over (population 15–64 divided by population 65+).

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Dependency Ratio : = Children + Elderly X 100 Working Age = Pop below 15 + 65 & above X 100 Pop 16 – 64 years Dependency Ratio of Pakistan = 83.34% Dependency Ratio of UK = 66.5 % Dependency Ratio of Japan = 44 % Sex Ratio: The overall sex ratio is simply the ratio of males to females in the population & is calculated by taking the number of males in a population & dividing it by the number of females in the same population Sex Ratio = Number of Males X 100 Number of Females

Vital Index ( Birth / Death Ratio):

Vital Index ( Birth / Death Ratio) No. of live births in a specified period at a specific place x 100 No. of deaths at same place and period EXAMPLE: No. of live births in city (x) = 450 No. of deaths in same city and period = 300 V.I. = 450 / 300 x 100 = 150 If V.I. = 100 (births = death population is neither increasing nor decreasing) If V.I. > 100 (births > deaths ; population increasing) If V.I. < 100 (births < deaths ; population decreasing) Population Density = No. of persons / sq. mile Pakistan = 206

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Population Change = Mortality + Fertility + (net) Migration Pt 1 = Pt₀ + (B – D) + (IM - OM) Pt 1 = Future Population Pt₀ = Present Population Population change can be due to Natural Reasons (NATURAL INCREASE) Natural Increase = No. of live births (B) - No. of residents died (D); [ B-D] Migration Net Migration = In migration (IM)– Out migration(OM) ; [IM – OM] POPULATION GROWTH (PG) = NATURAL INCREASE + NET MIGRATION PG = (B –D) + (IM – OM)

How to measure population in between Census Years:

How to measure population in between Census Years Pt 1 = Pt₀ ( 1 + r ) t WHERE Pt ₀ = present population Pt 1 = future population r = growth rate per person (in proportion) t = no. of years between t ₀ and t 1 EXAMPLE : We want to calculate the population of a community in year 2012 (Pt 1 ), Population of a community is 20,000 in year 2006 (Pt 0 ) and annual GR is 3% P(2012) = P (2006) (1+ 3 / 100) 6 = 20000 (1+ 3 /100 ) 6 = 20000(1+0.030) 6 = 23880 OR P t 1 = P t 0 [ 1 + (GR / 100 x No. of years)] = 20000 [1+ (3/100 x 6)] = 20000 (1 + 0.18) = 23600

Developing Regions Make Up an Increasing Share of World Population.:

© 2008 POPULATION REFERENCE BUREAU Developing Regions Make Up an Increasing Share of World Population . Source: United Nations Population Division, World Population Prospects: The 2006 Revision . World Population (in Billions): 1950-2050

POPULATION DOUBLING TIME:

POPULATION DOUBLING TIME Time taken(approx.) for a population to double(approx.). Because population increase is on a compound interest formula . 1 % / yr increase would cause the population to double in about 70 yrs .(by interpretation, observation and collection of last census data) If the population is increasing at 3 % / yr. Then the doubling time will be 70 ÷3 = 23.3 yrs. PDT = 70 / GR PDT of Pakistan= 70/2.8 = 25 yrs. approx PDT of World = 70/1.3= 50 yrs. approx

REPLACEMENT LEVEL FERTILITY (ZERO POPULATION GROWTH):

REPLACEMENT LEVEL FERTILITY ( ZERO POPULATION GROWTH ) Is achieved, when a couple has two births during their reproductive life, just replace to themselves At a community scale, the replacement level is considered when there are on an average 2.1 births / woman, to compensate for expected deaths.

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The replacement level fertility , the average number of children a woman must have in order to replace herself with a daughter in the next generation. For example the replacement level fertility in the US is 2.11. This means that 100 women will bear 211 children, 103 of which will be females. About 3% of the alive female infants are expected to decease before they bear children, thus producing 100 women in the next generation. The gross reproduction rate , the number of daughters who would be born to a woman completing her reproductive life at current age-specific fertility rates.

MOMENTUM OF POPULATION GROWTH:

MOMENTUM OF POPULATION GROWTH Is characteristic of population growth when sharp decline in births does not bring in an immediate reduction in natural increase

USES OF DEMOGRAPHY:

USES OF DEMOGRAPHY

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131 Currently data on population is utilized/used by; · Businesses · Governments · Academicians

Businesses:

Businesses Businesses use population data to; I dentify potential markets & places to run advertisements (retail businesses). D etermine whether an area considered for a plant/factory has a sufficient labour force. They also study population shifts for changes that could affect market for their products, (manufacturing businesses).

Government:

Government Governments at all levels also utilize population data for the following purposes: 1. For long range planning of various departments & government organizations. 2. For projecting the kind of public services that will be needed at various points in the future. 3. For monitoring changes in society such as decline or improvement in health, shifts in the structure of the family, alterations in ethnic relationships etc.

Government … (cont.):

Government … (cont.) For health planning. Demographic data can assist in helping to plan by describing the following: Ø Uptake of health services in a country or an area. Ø The usual presentation of illnesses in an area/country. Ø By identification of the population’s perception of illness & disease. Ø By identifying the lifestyle & cultural practices of the population. Ø By the kind of encounters that the population has with the services. Ø By identifying the patterns of disease in the population. Ø By identifying the kind of alternate medicine being utilized by the population.

Academicians:

Academicians Academicians use demographic data: To improve understanding of human society by analyzing the consequences of social political & economic change brought about by population alterations. In so doing they Help to forecast the future of the society. Assist governments in planning purposes.

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Population-growth rate the rate at which a population grows each year (given period of time) % age / yr. Rate of Natural Increase (the rate at which a population grows each year based solely on births and deaths, not migration) Per Capita Income (the average amount of money each person in a country/region/home earns per year). PCI= Total income . Total population

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Census is the procedure of systematically acquiring and recording information (massive country wide operation to consume enormous manpower and other resources) about the members of a given population. It is a regularly occurring and official count of a particular population. The term is used mostly in connection with national population and door to door censuses' (to be taken every 10 years according to United Nations recommendations), agriculture, and business censuses. The term itself comes from Latin: during the Roman Republic the census was a list which kept track of all adult males fit for military service.

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Earliest record of census= 4000 BC in Babylonia, 3000 BC in china, 2500 BC in Egypt Modern line ( scope extended beyond head counting) Canada in 1666 first conducted census followed by US 1790 and England 1801, India country wide operation started in 1881 De Facto (factually) (person is treated as a resident where he is available at the time of contact, even he may be actually resident of some other place) De Jure (legally) (person is treated as a resident where he actually belongs to, even he may be residing else where) India de Facto till 1931 and 1941 onwards de jure

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The first Pakistan Census after the proclamation of independence of Pakistan was conducted in 1951. It was decreed that censuses have to be carried out once in 10 years. The second census was conducted in 1961. However the third one was conducted in 1972 because of war with India. The fourth census was held in 1981.The fifth census was conducted delayed in March 1998. The sixth census of Pakistan is planned in October 2008. Pakistan's estimated population in 2011 is over 187 million

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ERRORS (limitations) of Census Infants are generally under enumerated Many persons do not know their exact age Old persons tend to add years to their actual age Information about handicapped persons is incomplete Information about work status is distorted USES Provision of demographic, social and economic data of country, helps to plan health & welfare programs. Information on composition, size & distribution of population, population trend, quality of life Helps to estimate mid-year population, pop. policies

Vital registration:

Process of recording vital events that occur in a population from time to time; events registered relate to births, deaths & marriages. Census and VR are inter related if census gives a snapshot VR gives a motion picture of that population by recording changes on continuous basis. Vital registration

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The crude birth rate (CBR) , the annual number of live births per 1000 people in specific area & time The general fertility rate , (GFR) the annual number of live births per 1000 women of childbearing age (often taken to be from 15 to 49 years old, but sometimes from 15 to 44) in specific area & time age-specific fertility rates (ASFR) , the annual number of live births per 1000 women in particular age groups (usually age 15-19, 20-24 etc.) in specific area & time The crude death rate(CDR) , the annual number of deaths per 1000 people in specific area & time

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The infant mortality rate (IMR) , the annual number of deaths of children less than 1 year old per 1000 live births in specific area & time The expectation of life (or life expectancy ), the number of years which an individual at a given age could expect to live at present mortality levels. in specific area & time The total fertility rate (TFR) , the number of live births per woman completing her reproductive life, if her childbearing at each age reflected current age-specific fertility rates in specific area & time

DEMOGRAPHIC TRAP:

According to the Encyclopedia of International Development , the term demographic trap is used by demographers "to describe the combination of high fertility (birth rates) and declining mortality (death rates) in developing countries, resulting in a period of high population growth rate (PGR).“ High fertility combined with declining mortality happens when a developing country moves through the demographic transition of becoming developed. DEMOGRAPHIC TRAP

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Actuarial science is the discipline that applies mathematical and statistical methods to assess risk in the insurance and finance industries In actuarial science, a LIFE TABLE (also called a mortality table or actuarial table ) is a table which shows, for each age, what the probability is that a person of that age will die before his or her next birthday. From this starting point, a number of inferences can be derived. the probability of surviving any particular year of age

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remaining life expectancy for people at different ages Life tables can be constructed using projections of future mortality rates, but more often they are a snapshot of age-specific mortality rates in the recent past, and do not purport to be projections. For various reasons, such as advances in medicine, age-specific mortality rates vary over time. Life tables are usually constructed separately for men and for women because of their substantially different mortality rates . Other characteristics can also be used to distinguish different risks, such as smoking status, occupation, and socio-economic class.

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QALY’s: Quality-adjusted life years DALY”s : disability-adjusted life years LIFE TABLE

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POPULATION STRUCTURE The population pyramid displays the age and sex structure of a country or given area Population in Five Year Age bands Usually, but not always, In % to make for easier comparisons between countries OLD DEPENDANTS ECONOMICALLY ACTIVE YOUNG DEPENDANTS FEMALES To the right MALES To the left

Less Developed Countries Have More Young People Relative to Elderly.:

© 2008 POPULATION REFERENCE BUREAU Less Developed Countries Have More Young People Relative to Elderly. Source: United Nations Population Division, World Population Prospects: The 2006 Revision . Population by Age and Sex, Less Developed Countries: 2008

Population pyramid of a developed nation:

Population pyramid of a developed nation Population Pyramid of Sweden (1995)

DEMOGRAPHIC CYCLE:

5 stages through which a nation passes during transition HIGH STATIONARY STAGE ( ↑ CBR & CDR) e.g Amazon valley) EARLY EXPANDING STAGE ( ↑CBR & ↓CDR) e.g Bangladesh) LATE EXPANDING STAGE ( ↓CBR & ↓↓ CDR) e.g India/Pakistan) LOW STATIONARY STAGE ( ↓CBR &↓ CDR) e.g. Sweden 0 GR) DECLINING STAGE ( ↓↓ CBR & ↓CDR) e.g. Germany (– ve GR) DEMOGRAPHIC CYCLE

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THIS GROWTH IS HELPFUL FOR UNDER POPULATED NATIONS WHICH NEEDS MORE MANPOWER, EXPANDING MARKETS ; HOWEVER IT EVENTUALLY RESULTS IN TOO FAST GROWTH OF POPULATION LEADING TO ECONOMIC, POLITICAL AND SOCIAL CHAOS. A NO. OF DEVELOPING COUNTRIES e.g. PAKISTAN & MANY AFRICAN COUNTRIES ARE IN THIS PHASE OF DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION (LATE EXPANDING) THIS GROWTH IS HELPFUL FOR UNDER POPULATED NATIONS WHICH NEEDS MORE MANPOWER, EXPANDING MARKETS ; HOWEVER IT EVENTUALLY RESULTS IN TOO FAST GROWTH OF POPULATION LEADING TO ECONOMIC, POLITICAL AND SOCIAL CHAOS. A NO. OF DEVELOPING COUNTRIES e.g. PAKISTAN & MANY AFRICAN COUNTRIES ARE IN THIS PHASE OF DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION (LATE EXPANDING)

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