1980 update

Context : 

Context

Economics/Stagflation : 

Economics/Stagflation The OPEC Oil embargo in 1973 had consequences lasting through the early 1980s, not only for the price of oil but for the entire economy

Slide 4: 

The embargo touched off high inflation rates despite a stagnant economy, termed “stagflation” Inflation, unemployment, and interest rates rose steadily throughout Carter’s presidency, Thought to be impossible under standard Keynesianism, which was the economic policy traditionally adhered to by liberals, so liberals had no prescription for a solution

Slide 6: 

In addition, the Iranian revolution in 1979 and the invasion of Iran by Iraq caused a dramatic spike in oil prices, which further exacerbated the severity of the economic downturn All combined to give Carter the worst score on the “Misery Index” by any president in modern times – both on average and at its highest point Misery index is the sum of the inflation rate and the unemployment rate

Slide 7: 

It is because of this backdrop that Reagan’s question, “Are you better off now than you were four years ago?” dealt such a blow to the Carter campaign

The Iran Hostage Crisis : 

The Iran Hostage Crisis The Iranian Hostage Crisis is considered by some to be the largest reason for Carter’s defeat Much like the Vietnam War or the Kennedy assassinations did in the 1960s, the Iran Hostage Crisis dominated the news and daily life for over a year Walter Cronkite began signing off by announcing the number of days the hostages had been held

Iran’s Revolution : 

Iran’s Revolution After decades of support by the American government, the US-installed Shah of Iran was overthrown by the religious leader Ayatollah Khomeini in 1978-1979 The Shah fled to America on October 22, 1979, and Khomeini, thriving on Anti-American sentiment, urged Iranians to protest

Slide 11: 

On November 4th, 1979, students from local universities in Tehran took over the American Embassy, taking 68 hostages 13 were released within 3 weeks because of their minority status as women or African-Americans and 1 more was released when diagnosed with multiple sclerosis

Slide 13: 

Although the Ayatollah did not have prior knowledge of the plan, he supported the hostage-takers in the aftermath as a political move to rally radical Islamists in Iran, thus greatly prolonging the crisis for 444 days Carter refused to take a hard line and threaten large scale military action, which some cite as the reason for the long duration of the crisis Rather he initially appealed to Iran on humanitarian grounds and used economic measures like halting Iranian oil imports

Slide 14: 

Within minutes of the inauguration of Ronald Reagan, the hostages were released

Slide 15: 

As a result of his handling of the crisis, the public may have perceived Carter as a weak and ineffectual leader lacking in resolve A Gallup Poll taken on 9/9/1980 revealed that 60% considered him indecisive, while only 35% considered him decisive (5% no answer), and 66% said he “lacks strong leadership qualities,” while 29% said he did (5% no answer)

Slide 16: 

Sparked the modern day 24-hour news cycle CNN was formed in 1980, and ABC ran a nightly news program called America Held Hostage, which later continued as Nightline.

The Primaries : 

The Primaries

The Republican Primary: The Candidates : 

The Republican Primary: The Candidates John Anderson, U.S. representative from Illinois Howard Baker, U.S. senator from Tennessee and Senate Minority Leader George H.W. Bush, former director of the Central Intelligence Agency and former chairman of the Republican National Committee John Connally, former governor of Texas and former Secretary of the Treasury Phil Crane, U.S. representative from Illinois Bob Dole, U.S. senator from Kansas and 1976 vice-presidential nominee Ronald Reagan, former governor of California and former candidate for the 1976 presidential nomination

The Republican Primary: The Setup : 

The Republican Primary: The Setup Reagan ahead in Polls, adopts the “above the fray approach to campaigning the primaries George Bush attends “straw poll” events, gains some recognition Iowa Caucuses point to Bush for the win Reagan sponsors debate between himself and Bush Bush fails to make an impact on voters and Reagan pulls ahead in polls

The Republican Primary: The Results : 

The Republican Primary: The Results Ronald Reagan -1,939 John Bayard Anderson- 37 George H.W. Bush- 13 Despite Bush’s loosing the nomination, Bush takes the VP nomination by an overwhelming margin

The Democratic Primary: The Candidates : 

The Democratic Primary: The Candidates Jerry Brown, governor of California Jimmy Carter, incumbent president Ted Kennedy, U.S. senator from Massachusetts

The Democratic Primary: The Setup : 

The Democratic Primary: The Setup Unemployment, inflation and a shortage of gasoline contributed to a very poor approval rating for president carter. Gallup polls showed -28% Carter makes desperate attempts to boost approval rating Ted Kennedy decides to take advantage of Carter’s poor approval ratings and run for the democratic ticket (despite the Chappaquiddick scandal ) Kennedy’s public forums offer him little help in the polls. Appeared confused and fumbled over his words. Carter’s gets a boost in the polls from the Tehran, Iran hostage crisis and pulls ahead in the polls Carter takes the democratic ticket

The Democratic Primary: The Results : 

The Democratic Primary: The Results Jimmy Carter 2129.02 Ted Kennedy 1,150.48 Walter Mondale - VP

General Election : 

Under federal election laws, Carter and Reagan received $29 million each, and Anderson $18.5. They were not allowed to spend any other money. Carter and Reagan each spent about $15 million on television advertising, and Anderson under $2 million. General Election

The Campaign : 

The Campaign The Issues: In the campaign of 1980 there were very clear issues dividing the candidates. Carter supported the Equal Rights Amendment, while Reagan opposed it. Reagan opposed he Strategic Arms Limitation Talks, while Carter supported it. Carter called for a national health insurance program. Ultimately, however, it was not these issues but the twin issues of the American Hostages in Iran and what the Republicans called the misery index (inflation plus unemployment) ended Carter's chance of being re-elected. In summary the three major issues of the campaign were far greater threats to Carter's prospects for reelection: the economy, national security, and the Iranian hostage crisis Reagan pledged to make a new beginning and to correct the current direction of the Country. “We cannot accept continued inflation, a mismanaged energy crisis, the erosion of our dollar, and the loss of our personal hopes. We must stop the decline of our leadership in the world, the weakening of our defense capability and the aimless drifting from crisis to crisis.”

Republican : 

Reagan promised a restoration of the nation's military strength. Reagan also promised an end to "'trust me' government" and to restore economic health by implementing a supply-side economy policy. Reagan promised a balanced budget within three years, accompanied by a 30% reduction in taxes over those same years. With respect to the economy, Reagan famously said, "A recession is when your neighbor loses his job. A depression is when you lose yours. And recovery is when Jimmy Carter loses his." http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TTX27pmZGLk (2:56) Are you better off than you were four years ago? Republican

DemocratThe Incumbent : 

Basic Strategy was to Attack Reagan Without a strong record to run on, the Carter team decided its only chance was to go after Ronald Reagan, painting him as a wild-eyed conservative ideologue who could not be trusted to maintain the peace. “Shoots from the hip”- cant back up statements with facts Voodoo Economics http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gGhGx5PhDTg (0:30) DemocratThe Incumbent

Independent : 

Lowering interest rates, inflationary tax cuts Foreign Diplomacy Environmental Preservation Civil Rights Reforming Health Care Oil, 50- 50 plan  50-cent-per-gallon energy conservation tax on all motor vehicles to cut consumption and reduce our dependence on foreign supplies. He realized the need to offset the burden, of such an energy tax by using the revenues from the tax to reduce employee Social Security taxes by 50 Percent, increase Social Security benefits, compensate those who are not on payrolls, exempt farmers, and allow tax credits for businesses unfairly penalized. Was able to hurt Carter by splitting the democratic vote Independent

The Debates : 

The Debates

First Debate- September 21, 1980 : 

President Carter refused to join the debate due to the participation of Independent candidate John Anderson Reagan makes references to the original goals of the country "We can meet our destiny... for all mankind, a shining city on a hill." Reagan also discussed his major campaign themes such as cutting taxes, cutting government and increasing military strength. He also attacked Carter's economic record. Anderson pledged to raise taxes- standing in the polls went down after the debate Location: Baltimore, MDParticipants: Ronald Reagan (R), John Anderson (Independent) First Debate- September 21, 1980

2nd Debate - October 28, 1980 : 

2nd Debate - October 28, 1980 Location: Cleveland, OHParticipants: Jimmy Carter (D), Ronald Reagan (R) Held just a week before the election, the debate received much attention. Presidential Debate between President Carter and Governor Reagan received among the highest ratings of any TV show in the previous decade, while much substance was discussed such as the Iranian hostage crisis, nuclear arms treaties and proliferation, Carter's campaign sought to portray Reagan as a reckless "hawk." –Reagan responds “There you go again”, "Are you better off than you were four years ago?" Top issues included inflation, the energy crisis, terrorism, the troubles with America's inner cities and defense policy (particularly nuclear weapons). Carter ticked off specific constituencies that had benefited from his programs, and tried to depict Reagan as an irresponsible loose cannon on nuclear matters. Where Carter went wrong: "I think to close out this discussion, it would be better to put into perspective what we're talking about. I had a discussion with my daughter, Amy, the other day, before I came here, to ask her what the most important issue was. She said she thought nuclear weaponry -- and the control of nuclear arms." Most analysts concluded this so-called "Amy speech" didn't work.

And The Results Are In… : 

And The Results Are In… The election was held on November 4, 1980. Reagan beat Carter by 10% in the popular vote. Republicans also gained control of the Senate for the first time in twenty-five years on Reagan's coattails. The electoral college vote was a landslide, with 489 votes (representing 44 states) for Reagan and 49 for Carter (representing 6 states and the District of Columbia). John Anderson won no electoral votes, but got 5,720,060 popular votes.

Reagan Has a Totally Sweet Win! : 

Reagan Has a Totally Sweet Win!

How it Went Down : 

How it Went Down

The Significance : 

The Significance The election of 1980 was a key turning point in American politics. It signaled the new electoral power of the suburbs and the Sun Belt. Reagan's success as a conservative would initiate a realigning of the parties, as liberal Republicans and conservative Democrats would either leave politics or change party affiliations through the 1980s and 1990s to leave the parties much more ideologically polarized.