Technology Management :Technology Management Session 1 Puneit Singh


Definitions :Definitions Technology Usage & knowledge of tools and crafts to control or adapt to the environment Technology Management A discipline of management where in an organisation leverages the technological fundamentals to create competitive advantage


Technology :Technology Effects our lives in ways wherein it is difficult to imagine living in ZERO technology environment


Technology is… :Technology is… … driving changes in the business landscape … no longer limited to supporting business decisions …breaking down traditional industrial boundaries … redefining a new era of competition But still…. … people have been and will continue to express disbelief – here is how


It will never Work :It will never Work Television & Radio Television won't be able to hold on to any market it captures after the first six months. People will soon get tired of staring at a plywood box every night. - Darryl F. Zanuck, Head of 20th Century-Fox, 1946. Communication Well informed people know it is impossible to transmit the voice over wires and that were it possible to do so, the thing would be of no practical value.- Editorial in the Boston Post, 1865 Computers There is no reason for any individual to have a computer in their home.- Ken Olson, President of Digital Corporation, 1977 … and there are numerous other examples


Some Forecasts were made… :Some Forecasts were made… 1895: “Heavier than air flying machines are impossible.” - Lord Kelvin 1920: “Who the hell wants to hear actors talk.” - HM Warner 1943: “I think there is a world market of maybe five computers.” - Thomas Watson, then Chairman, IBM. 1981: “640 K (internal memory) ought to be enough for anybody.” - Bill Gates


Marvels of the 21st Century :Marvels of the 21st Century


Slide 8:1. Wind farm in the middle of the ocean Miracles of the 21st century


Slide 9:20 km from the coast of Denmark, you will find “Horns Rev”, the biggest wind farm in the world. 80 turbines 110 m tall, capable of 160 MW


Slide 10:The fins are 30 m long!


Slide 13:2. Fantasy road that exists part of the time Miracles of the 21st century


Slide 14:. The highway between Tibbitt and Contwoyto in Canada. Most dangerous road in the world. It is over 500km long and consist of 85% frozen lakes. The ice can break at any time. Arctic highway


Slide 15:This road can only operate / come into effect during the coldest months of the year. When the ice becomes strong enough every year the road is made. Here is a series of truck on the ice – each 70 tons.


Slide 16:Some people try and push their luck at the end of the season – but in the end nature has the final say.


Slide 17:3. Colossus of the sea. Miracles of the 21st century


Slide 18:The biggest ship in the world. Used for the heaviest, and biggest of things needing transport


Slide 19:Oil Rigs transported off-shore …


Slide 20:…Oil refinery …a whole Military Radar…


Slide 22:How it can be loaded at sea; 1. It sinks under the water… The ships park on top… 3. And then it raises itself!! SIMPLU, NU ?


Slide 23:4. Modern ways to control water. (a water highway;) Miracles of the 21st century


Slide 24:The bridge “Magdeburg” (Germany) – you need to look at it a number of times to understand what is actually happening. It’s a bridge that goes over the Elba river. It allows boats easy access into canals. It cost more than 500 million Euros and took 6 years to build


Technology Management :Technology Management A closer look…


TM depends upon… :TM depends upon… Leadership Motivation of employees Appropriate management of technology Goal is to create synergy among all factors


Managerial Functions of TM :Managerial Functions of TM


Managerial Functions of TMs :Managerial Functions of TMs


The Hype Cycle :The Hype Cycle Reflection of Technology life cycle


Hype Cycle :Hype Cycle Gartner's Hype Cycles offer an overview of the relative maturity of technologies in a certain domain. They provide not only a scorecard to separate hype from reality, but also models that help enterprises decide when they should adopt a new technology.


The Hype Cycle… :The Hype Cycle…


…talks about the stages of technology :…talks about the stages of technology Technology Trigger Peak of Inflated Expectations Trough of Disillusionment Slope of Enlightenment Plateau of Productivity


The Hype Cycle :The Hype Cycle Establishes the expectation that most technologies will inevitably progress through the pattern of over enthusiasm and disillusionment Provides a snapshot of the relative maturity of technologies within a certain segment of the Industry, such as a technology area, horizontal or vertical business market, or a certain demographic audience Has a simple and clear message: Companies should not invest in a technology just because it is being hyped, nor should they ignore a technology just because it is not living up to early over expectations


Classification of Enterprises :Classification of Enterprises Type A – Technology Aggressive – Relatively comfortable adopting new technology Type B – Moderately Aggressive – Investigate and pilot slowly Type C – Conservatives – These enterprises remain wary of new technology


Understanding the Hype Cycle :Understanding the Hype Cycle


Positioning a technology on the Hype Cycle :Positioning a technology on the Hype Cycle Positioning on the Hype cycle depends on a consensus assessment of hype and maturity. Ability to deploy, ability to manage, domain of usage are some factors that impact this positioning.


Phases of Hype Cycle :Phases of Hype Cycle In Hype Cycle reports, technologies are presented in five categories representing the various stages on the Hype Cycle. These stages are characterized by distinct investment, product and market patterns.


On the Rise :On the Rise Research & Lab Prototypes Potential Venture Capital Technology is expensive Solutions customised based on demand


At the Peak :At the Peak Number of vendors increases Market based on Hype Emergence of Trough of Disillusionment because of issues with first generation products


Sliding into the Trough :Sliding into the Trough Technology Discredited/ Public Failures Vendors working on technology improvement Vendors push for adoption across the “chasm” – from early adopters to majority market


Climbing the Slope :Climbing the Slope Second/ Third Gen products launched Technology maturing Service component reducing Mezzanine Funding Market penetration at 5% Conservative enterprises stay away


Entering the Plateau :Entering the Plateau Start of mainstream adoption Out of the box implementations abound Conservative enterprises start adoption Ecosystem becomes functional Hype disappears


Time-to-maturity assessment :Time-to-maturity assessment Normal - 5 to 8 years Few inhibitors Fast Track - 2 to 4 years High Value/ Simplicity of use Use of current infrastructure Strong vendor support Long Fuse – 10 to 15 years Inherent Complexity Adoption/ regulation issues Reliance on new infrastructure/ skills Major changes to business process


Benefit Rating, Maturity & Market Penetration :Benefit Rating, Maturity & Market Penetration Benefit Ratings: Transformational High Moderate Low Market Penetration Ranges: Less than 1% 1% to 5% 5% to 20% 20% to 50% More than 50%


Benefit Rating, Maturity & Market Penetration :Benefit Rating, Maturity & Market Penetration


Special Circumstances :Special Circumstances Technologies become embedded Split into several sub concepts Phoenix technologies cycle through enthusiasm and disillusionment Become “Ghosts” Become extinct Target audience may change.


Lessons :Lessons Technologies should not be adopted just because they are at the Peak of Inflated Expectations, nor should they necessarily be abandoned at the Trough of Disillusionment. Beware of the "noise filter" that most business and IT strategists apply. The Hype Cycle is also a measurement of knowledge and risk. Be aware of adoption patterns of Type A, B and C enterprises. The Hype Cycle should not be used for internal technology prioritization within the technology planning function. Noise Filter Adoption Patterns


Technology Adoption :Technology Adoption Absorption of Technology by the Consumers (Both Industrial and End-consumers)


Technology Adoption/Absorption Cycle :Technology Adoption/Absorption Cycle


Technology Adoption/Absorption Cycle :Technology Adoption/Absorption Cycle


What is Chasm :What is Chasm Period of discontinuity in adoption of high tech products People tend to delay the purchase of technology in order to obtain reviews from the innovators


Innovators :Innovators First to get hands on the technology. Also called as Geeks/ Freaks etc. They are often consulted with before other use technology May not the ones with money, but do influence decision makers


Early Adopters :Early Adopters Have the vision to match an emerging technology to a strategic opportunity They look for breakthroughs, rather than improvements


Early majority :Early majority Are low risk takers & believe that leading edge is bleeding edge Believe in evolution rather than revolution Want incremental improvement and predictable progress Hard to get onboard, but once on, they stay. Microsoft Corporation has benefited the most from such category


Late Majority :Late Majority Pessimist, fearful Price sensitive, demanding and skeptical Adopt only when they feel the need in order to survive or face extinction Prefer bundled products that are simple to use


Laggards :Laggards They don’t participate in the tech markets except to block purchases Goal is to sell around them


Technology Transfer :Technology Transfer


Technology Transfer :Technology Transfer It is based on the concept of Metcalf’s law which states that the value of the telecommunication network is proportional to the square of the number of connected users of the system – n2


Technology Transfer :Technology Transfer It is the process of sharing of skills, knowledge, technology, methods of manufacturing etc among others to ensure technological development is accessible to a wider range of users, who can further develop and exploit the technology into new products. Example Mutliflow Computer Inc. Open Source Software development, Research into Nuclear fusion


Diffusion of Innovation :Diffusion of Innovation


Diffusion of Innovation :Diffusion of Innovation "Diffusion is the process by which an innovation is communicated through certain channels over time among the members of a social System.“ In other words, the study of the diffusion of innovation is the study of how, why, and at what rate new ideas and technology spread through cultures.


Diffusion of Innovation :Diffusion of Innovation How, Why, and at What Rate new ideas and technology spread through cultures. For example:- Acceptance of new technological products: the wrist watch and the personal computer foods like tomato sauce and sushi, music styles like opera and nova, dressing styles like the top hat and blue jeans, ideals like democracy or feminism …….and so on.


Diffusion of Innovation :Diffusion of Innovation Advertised products or services were "innovations" in the culture. The most influential channel of influence was not from some broadcast medium, but down an echelon of levels: small number of "early adopters" a larger number of "secondary adopters“ and from them to "tertiary adopters“ then to "quaternary adopters", etc.


Diffusion of Innovation :Diffusion of Innovation There was also lateral influence within each level. Broadcast messages could reinforce the propagation from one adopter level down to the next, but lower levels are unlikely to respond until the level above them has adopted. People were more likely to adopt, or even consider adopting, if people they know and respect have adopted. Imitation is the strongest influence channel. Therefore, the most effective marketing strategy is to first sell to the early adopters, then reinforce the diffusion to each successive level, but not to waste resources on trying to reach any given level before it is ready for it.


Diffusion of Innovation :Diffusion of Innovation The S-Curve and technology adoption


Diffusion of Innovation :Diffusion of Innovation Innovations spread through society in a S Curve, as the early adopters select the technology first, followed by the majority, until a technology or innovation is common. Diffusion research centers on the conditions which increase or decrease the likelihood that a new idea, product, or practice will be adopted by members of a given culture. People’s attitude toward a new technology is a key element in its diffusion.


Diffusion of Innovation :Diffusion of Innovation Roger’s Innovation Decision Process theory states that innovation diffusion is a process that occurs over time through five stages: Knowledge Persuasion Decision Implementation Confirmation.


Diffusion of Innovation :Diffusion of Innovation Innovation-decision process: First knowledge of an innovation, Forming an attitude toward the innovation, Decision to adopt or reject, Implementation of the new idea, Confirmation of this decision.


Disruptive Technologies :Disruptive Technologies


Innovation :Innovation Is to bring new ideas, methods to the current way of working But most innovations are disruptive to the current ways of working because they are better and more effective or provide a cheap alternative A disruptive innovation is one that improves a product or service in such a way that the market doesn’t expect typically by being lower priced or designed for a different set of consumers


But don’t take it too far… :But don’t take it too far…


Disruptive Innovation - types :Disruptive Innovation - types New Market Aimed at new consumers who have previously not used similar products/services in the market Low-end Whose lower price is of more importance than quality A disruptive technology can come to dominate the market. e. g. digital cameras, internet bandwidth


Disruptive Technology :Disruptive Technology


Ignorance :Ignorance Leaders often ignore the low-end or new market disruptive technology and become aware only when they have lost their majority market share to the new technology E.g Encyclopedia Britannica


Thank You :Thank You


Intellectual Property Rights :Intellectual Property Rights


IPRs :IPRs