Technology Management : Technology Management Session 1
Puneit Singh Definitions : Definitions Technology
Usage & knowledge of tools and crafts to control or adapt to the environment
A discipline of management where in an organisation leverages the technological fundamentals to create competitive advantage Technology : Technology Effects our lives in ways wherein it is difficult to imagine living in ZERO technology environment Technology is… : Technology is… … driving changes in the business landscape
… no longer limited to supporting business decisions
…breaking down traditional industrial boundaries
… redefining a new era of competition
… people have been and will continue to express disbelief – here is how It will never Work : It will never Work Television & Radio
Television won't be able to hold on to any market it captures after the first six months. People will soon get tired of staring at a plywood box every night. - Darryl F. Zanuck, Head of 20th Century-Fox, 1946.
Well informed people know it is impossible to transmit the voice over wires and that were it possible to do so, the thing would be of no practical value.- Editorial in the Boston Post, 1865
There is no reason for any individual to have a computer in their home.- Ken Olson, President of Digital Corporation, 1977
… and there are numerous other examples Some Forecasts were made… : Some Forecasts were made… 1895: “Heavier than air flying machines are impossible.” - Lord Kelvin
1920: “Who the hell wants to hear actors talk.” - HM Warner
1943: “I think there is a world market of maybe five computers.” - Thomas Watson, then Chairman, IBM.
1981: “640 K (internal memory) ought to be enough for anybody.” - Bill Gates Marvels of the 21st Century : Marvels of the 21st Century Slide 8: 1. Wind farm in the middle of the ocean Miracles of the 21st century Slide 9: 20 km from the coast of Denmark, you will find “Horns Rev”, the biggest wind farm in the world. 80 turbines 110 m tall, capable of 160 MW Slide 10: The fins are 30 m long! Slide 13: 2. Fantasy road that exists part of the time Miracles of the 21st century Slide 14: .
The highway between Tibbitt and Contwoyto in Canada.
Most dangerous road in the world. It is over 500km long and consist of 85% frozen lakes. The ice can break at any time. Arctic highway Slide 15: This road can only operate / come into effect during the coldest months of the year. When the ice becomes strong enough every year the road is made. Here is a series of truck on the ice – each 70 tons. Slide 16: Some people try and push their luck at the end of the season – but in the end nature has the final say. Slide 17: 3. Colossus of the sea. Miracles of the 21st century Slide 18: The biggest ship in the world. Used for the heaviest, and biggest of things needing transport Slide 19: Oil Rigs transported off-shore … Slide 20: …Oil refinery …a whole Military Radar… Slide 22: How it can be loaded at sea; 1. It sinks under the water… The ships park on top… 3. And then it raises itself!! SIMPLU, NU ? Slide 23: 4. Modern ways to control water. (a water highway;) Miracles of the 21st century Slide 24: The bridge “Magdeburg” (Germany) – you need to look at it a number of times to understand what is actually happening. It’s a bridge that goes over the Elba river.
It allows boats easy access into canals.
It cost more than 500 million Euros and took 6 years to build Technology Management : Technology Management A closer look… TM depends upon… : TM depends upon… Leadership
Motivation of employees
Appropriate management of technology
Goal is to create synergy among all factors Managerial Functions of TM : Managerial Functions of TM Managerial Functions of TMs : Managerial Functions of TMs The Hype Cycle : The Hype Cycle Reflection of Technology life cycle Hype Cycle : Hype Cycle Gartner's Hype Cycles offer an overview of the relative maturity of technologies in a certain domain. They provide not only a scorecard to separate hype from reality, but also models that help enterprises decide when they should adopt a new technology. The Hype Cycle… : The Hype Cycle… …talks about the stages of technology : …talks about the stages of technology Technology Trigger
Peak of Inflated Expectations
Trough of Disillusionment
Slope of Enlightenment
Plateau of Productivity The Hype Cycle : The Hype Cycle Establishes the expectation that most technologies will inevitably progress through the pattern of over enthusiasm and disillusionment
Provides a snapshot of the relative maturity of technologies within a certain segment of the Industry, such as a technology area, horizontal or vertical business market, or a certain demographic audience
Has a simple and clear message: Companies should not invest in a technology just because it is being hyped, nor should they ignore a technology just because it is not living up to early over expectations Classification of Enterprises : Classification of Enterprises Type A – Technology Aggressive – Relatively comfortable adopting new technology
Type B – Moderately Aggressive – Investigate and pilot slowly
Type C – Conservatives – These enterprises remain wary of new technology Understanding the Hype Cycle : Understanding the Hype Cycle Positioning a technology on the Hype Cycle : Positioning a technology on the Hype Cycle Positioning on the Hype cycle depends on a consensus assessment of hype and maturity.
Ability to deploy, ability to manage, domain of usage are some factors that impact this positioning. Phases of Hype Cycle : Phases of Hype Cycle In Hype Cycle reports, technologies are presented in five categories representing the various
stages on the Hype Cycle. These stages are characterized by distinct investment, product and
market patterns. On the Rise : On the Rise Research & Lab Prototypes
Potential Venture Capital
Technology is expensive
Solutions customised based on demand At the Peak : At the Peak Number of vendors increases
Market based on Hype
Emergence of Trough of Disillusionment
because of issues with first generation
products Sliding into the Trough : Sliding into the Trough Technology Discredited/ Public Failures
Vendors working on technology
Vendors push for adoption across the
“chasm” – from early adopters to majority
market Climbing the Slope : Climbing the Slope Second/ Third Gen products launched
Service component reducing
Market penetration at 5%
Conservative enterprises stay away Entering the Plateau : Entering the Plateau Start of mainstream adoption
Out of the box implementations abound
Conservative enterprises start adoption
Ecosystem becomes functional
Hype disappears Time-to-maturity assessment : Time-to-maturity assessment Normal - 5 to 8 years
Fast Track - 2 to 4 years
High Value/ Simplicity of use
Use of current infrastructure
Strong vendor support
Long Fuse – 10 to 15 years
Adoption/ regulation issues
Reliance on new infrastructure/ skills
Major changes to business process Benefit Rating, Maturity & Market Penetration : Benefit Rating, Maturity & Market Penetration Benefit Ratings:
Market Penetration Ranges:
Less than 1%
1% to 5%
5% to 20%
20% to 50%
More than 50% Benefit Rating, Maturity & Market Penetration : Benefit Rating, Maturity & Market Penetration Special Circumstances : Special Circumstances Technologies become embedded
Split into several sub concepts
Phoenix technologies cycle through enthusiasm and disillusionment
Target audience may change. Lessons : Lessons Technologies should not be adopted just because they are at the Peak of Inflated Expectations, nor should they necessarily be abandoned at the Trough of Disillusionment.
Beware of the "noise filter" that most business and IT strategists apply.
The Hype Cycle is also a measurement of knowledge and risk.
Be aware of adoption patterns of Type A, B and C enterprises.
The Hype Cycle should not be used for internal technology prioritization within the technology planning function. Noise Filter Adoption Patterns Technology Adoption : Technology Adoption Absorption of Technology by the Consumers
(Both Industrial and End-consumers) Technology Adoption/Absorption Cycle : Technology Adoption/Absorption Cycle Technology Adoption/Absorption Cycle : Technology Adoption/Absorption Cycle What is Chasm : What is Chasm Period of discontinuity in adoption of high tech products
People tend to delay the purchase of technology in order to obtain reviews from the innovators Innovators : Innovators First to get hands on the technology. Also called as Geeks/ Freaks etc.
They are often consulted with before other use technology
May not the ones with money, but do influence decision makers Early Adopters : Early Adopters Have the vision to match an emerging technology to a strategic opportunity
They look for breakthroughs, rather than improvements Early majority : Early majority Are low risk takers & believe that leading edge is bleeding edge
Believe in evolution rather than revolution
Want incremental improvement and predictable progress
Hard to get onboard, but once on, they stay.
Microsoft Corporation has benefited the most from such category Late Majority : Late Majority Pessimist, fearful
Price sensitive, demanding and skeptical
Adopt only when they feel the need in order to survive or face extinction
Prefer bundled products that are simple to use Laggards : Laggards They don’t participate in the tech markets except to block purchases
Goal is to sell around them Technology Transfer : Technology Transfer Technology Transfer : Technology Transfer It is based on the concept of Metcalf’s law which states that the value of the telecommunication network is proportional to the square of the number of connected users of the system – n2 Technology Transfer : Technology Transfer It is the process of sharing of skills, knowledge, technology, methods of manufacturing etc among others to ensure technological development is accessible to a wider range of users, who can further develop and exploit the technology into new products.
Mutliflow Computer Inc.
Open Source Software development,
Research into Nuclear fusion Diffusion of Innovation : Diffusion of Innovation Diffusion of Innovation : Diffusion of Innovation "Diffusion is the process by which an innovation is communicated through certain channels over time among the members of a social System.“
In other words, the study of the diffusion of innovation is the study of how, why, and at what rate new ideas and technology spread through cultures. Diffusion of Innovation : Diffusion of Innovation How, Why, and at What Rate new ideas and technology spread through cultures.
Acceptance of new technological products:
the wrist watch and the personal computer
foods like tomato sauce and sushi,
music styles like opera and nova,
dressing styles like the top hat and blue jeans,
ideals like democracy or feminism …….and so on. Diffusion of Innovation : Diffusion of Innovation Advertised products or services were "innovations" in the culture.
The most influential channel of influence was not from some broadcast medium, but down an echelon of levels:
small number of "early adopters"
a larger number of "secondary adopters“
and from them to "tertiary adopters“
then to "quaternary adopters", etc. Diffusion of Innovation : Diffusion of Innovation There was also lateral influence within each level.
Broadcast messages could reinforce the propagation from one adopter level down to the next, but lower levels are unlikely to respond until the level above them has adopted.
People were more likely to adopt, or even consider adopting, if people they know and respect have adopted.
Imitation is the strongest influence channel. Therefore, the most effective marketing strategy is to first sell to the early adopters, then reinforce the diffusion to each successive level, but not to waste resources on trying to reach any given level before it is ready for it. Diffusion of Innovation : Diffusion of Innovation The S-Curve and technology adoption Diffusion of Innovation : Diffusion of Innovation Innovations spread through society in a S Curve, as the early adopters select the technology first, followed by the majority, until a technology or innovation is common.
Diffusion research centers on the conditions which increase or decrease the likelihood that a new idea, product, or practice will be adopted by members of a given culture.
People’s attitude toward a new technology is a key element in its diffusion. Diffusion of Innovation : Diffusion of Innovation Roger’s Innovation Decision Process theory states that innovation diffusion is a process that occurs over time through five stages:
Confirmation. Diffusion of Innovation : Diffusion of Innovation Innovation-decision process:
First knowledge of an innovation,
Forming an attitude toward the innovation,
Decision to adopt or reject,
Implementation of the new idea,
Confirmation of this decision. Disruptive Technologies : Disruptive Technologies Innovation : Innovation Is to bring new ideas, methods to the current way of working
But most innovations are disruptive to the current ways of working because they are better and more effective or provide a cheap alternative
A disruptive innovation is one that improves a product or service in such a way that the market doesn’t expect typically by being lower priced or designed for a different set of consumers But don’t take it too far… : But don’t take it too far… Disruptive Innovation - types : Disruptive Innovation - types New Market
Aimed at new consumers who have previously not used similar products/services in the market
Whose lower price is of more importance than quality
A disruptive technology can come to dominate the market. e. g. digital cameras, internet bandwidth Disruptive Technology : Disruptive Technology Ignorance : Ignorance Leaders often ignore the low-end or new market disruptive technology and become aware only when they have lost their majority market share to the new technology
E.g Encyclopedia Britannica Thank You : Thank You Intellectual Property Rights : Intellectual Property Rights IPRs : IPRs