us alliances and multilateral security

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สัมมนา ณ กรุงมะนิลา ประเทศฟิลิปปินส์ วันที่ 25-27 พฤษภาคม 2554

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US Alliances and Multilateral Security:

US Alliances and Multilateral Security Dr.Prapat Thepchatree May 27,2011

US alliance system:

US alliance system hub and spokes

Present:

Present unipolar system

Slide 6:

multipolarism/ balance of power/power transition the rise of China

Slide 10:

the rise of ASEAN

Slide 11:

ASEAN ASEAN+1 ASEAN+3 East Asia Summit: EAS ASEAN Regional Forum ADMM+8

Alternative models for East Asia Security Architecture :

Alternative models for East Asia Security Architecture

model 1 : unipolar system :

model 1 : unipolar system U.S. as the core of regional architecture

Slide 14:

US (hub) sub – regional forums ASEAN-U.S., EAS,ADMM+8, ARF APEC spokes new institution

model 2 : multipolar system :

model 2 : multipolar system actors : U.S., China, Russia, Japan, India

model 3 : Mearsheimer :

model 3 : Mearsheimer Sino-U.S. serious conflict India , Japan , Singapore , South Korea , Russia, and Vietnam will join the U.S. in containing the Chinese influence China will try to be the regional hegemon

Slide 17:

“Monroe Doctrine” push American military force out of Asia U.S. will respond to the Chinese attempt to dominate Asia maintain the regional hegemonic role

Slide 18:

U.S. will contain China India , Japan , Russia, Singapore , South Korea and Vietnam will join the U.S. as coalition and alliance to contain China

model 4 : condominium of power :

model 4 : condominium of power actors : US and China

model 5 : concert of Asia :

model 5 : concert of Asia G8 of Asia actors : Australia, China, India, Indonesia, Japan, South Korea, Russia, US

model 6 : hierarchy of powers:

model 6 : hierarchy of powers tribute system

model 7 : clash of civilizations:

model 7 : clash of civilizations

model 8 : Asian Bloc:

model 8 : Asian Bloc

model 9 : :

model 9 : APEC Asia – Pacific Community (APC)

model 10 : ASEAN:

model 10 : ASEAN

Slide 27:

ASEAN ASEAN+1 ASEAN+3 East Asia Summit: EAS ASEAN Regional Forum ADMM+8

Slide 28:

uni - multipolar -multilateral system hybrid system dual core : U.S. and ASEAN

Recommendations:

Recommendations bilateralism trilateralism sub-regionalism multilateralism hub and spokes + ASEAN

ASEAN Political-Security Community:

ASEAN Political-Security Community political development shaping and sharing of norms conflict prevention conflict resolution peace-building

APSC:

APSC trust building resolve political conflicts and border dispute strengthen defense and military cooperation

Slide 32:

mechanism to deal with transnational issues non- traditional security issues inter and intra state conflicts ASEAN peace-keeping force

Slide 33:

ASEAN – U.S.

Slide 34:

regional balance of power disequilibrium U.S. : bilateral security China – ASEAN diplomatic front economic front past

Slide 35:

healthy balance of power enhance U.S. engagement with ASEAN diplomatic front political front economic front present

Slide 36:

Enterprise for ASEAN Initiative Joint Vision Statement on ASEAN-US Enhanced Partnership Bush

Slide 37:

ASEAN – U.S. Summit ASEAN –US Eminent Persons Group TAC ambassador to ASEAN ADMM+ Obama

Slide 38:

SEANWFZ practical engagement towards Burma U.S.-Lower Mekong Initiative

Slide 39:

South China Sea Yellow Sea 2 nd ASEAN-U.S. Summit EAS ADMM+8 U.S. proactive diplomacy

Slide 40:

humanitarian assistance and disaster relief maritime security military medicine counter-terrorism peacekeeping operation ADMM+8

Slide 41:

leaders-led forum for dialogue on broad strategic, political and economic issues ASEAN centrality traditional and non-traditional security issues EAS foreign ministers’ process East Asia Summit

Slide 42:

US proposals forum for political and security issues maritime security non-proliferation peace-keeping East Asia Summit

Slide 43:

27 member countries Asia-Pacific security architecture CBM preventive diplomacy conflict management ARF