Cloud Computing Scenario

Slide 1: 

•••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••• Cloud Computing Scenario Petar Kocovic Gartner-Serbia Sinergija Beograd, October 20, 2011 Petar.kocovic@gartner.com

Slide 2: 

Holly Trinity of Modern ICT

Global PC Installed Base : 

Global PC Installed Base

At the Begining this was only Status Symbol : 

At the Begining this was only Status Symbol First GSM Phone – 1991 - Radiolinja First GSM Message– 1994

Mobile Installed Base : 

Mobile Installed Base Equal with number of fixed telephone lines

Slide 6: 

10,000,000,000 Global Aggregate Shippment

Number of Internet Users : 

Number of Internet Users 2.5 Million sites, more than trillion pages, more than 1.8 billion unique users worldwide

IT Enterprise Spending Worldwide (08-14) : 

IT Enterprise Spending Worldwide (08-14)

IT Enterprise Spending Worldwide (08-14) : 

IT Enterprise Spending Worldwide (08-14)

IT Enterprise Spending Worldwide (08-15) : 

IT Enterprise Spending Worldwide (08-15) 4.6% 4.0%

Success Story #1- Media Tablets : 

Success Story #1- Media Tablets

Computex: PCs Are Fundamentally Changing : 

Computex: PCs Are Fundamentally Changing 12 Users Want More simple and intuitive user experience on PCs (especially "instant-on") Thinner and lighter notebooks, but with no performance sacrifice Choice of OS and applications Challenge: Cost-centric and low-margin business, fast-changing and converging mobile device landscape, balancing R&D resources between PCs and other consumer devices Opportunity: Need to adapt quickly to the change and offer value-centric and user-centric innovation, which will lead to better and more profitable growth PC Vendors Response Bringing PCs closer to a consumer experience of CE devices or media tablets, which leads to a convergence of devices "Ultrabook" — improved portability and performance of mobile PCs in a thin and light form factor It means end of Wintel-only PC solution for vendors; in the future there will be different CPUs and OS combinations for different purposes

Slide 13: 

• In 2012 Internet will be 75 Times Larger than in 2002 • Up to 2030 – Web will be Main Channel of Communication for the 1/3 Word Population

Slide 14: 

IP Data Traffic Doubling every 2 year. We had 275 Exabytes per year (2010) We expect 275 Exabytes per day up to 2020.

Slide 15: 

Sept 2010+Oct 2010 Like 3 TV station from 1948 up Today

Wikipedia.com (founded 2001)4,300 New Articels per Day : 

Wikipedia.com (founded 2001)4,300 New Articels per Day

Country “Facebook” – 767 Mil users October 19, 2011 : 

Country “Facebook” – 767 Mil users October 19, 2011

Computer in Cell Phone is: : 

Computer in Cell Phone is: than IBM 360 in MIT, 1965 1,000,000 Time Cheaper 1,000 More Powerful 100,000 Smaller

Michio Kaku Ph.D.– Augmented Reality is Now : 

Michio Kaku Ph.D.– Augmented Reality is Now

Slide 20: 

Internet Contact Lens

Slide 21: 

Transparent OLED Screens CSI

How Everything Started : 

How Everything Started Star Trek - 1968 Altair 8800

Slide 23: 

360 Degree Wall Screen

Slide 24: 

360 Degree Wall Screen

Disposable Computer~ 2-3 USD : 

Disposable Computer~ 2-3 USD

Windschield : 

Windschield

BMW 7 – Head Up Display : 

BMW 7 – Head Up Display

Holographic Projection : 

Holographic Projection

Telepathy : 

Telepathy

Teleportation : 

Teleportation

Telekinesis : 

Telekinesis

Telekinesis – Brain Computer Interface : 

Telekinesis – Brain Computer Interface

Asimo Robot : 

Asimo Robot

Movie: Fantastic Voyage : 

Movie: Fantastic Voyage

Nano Technology : 

Nano Technology Nano particles killing cancer cells Word: TUMOR will dissapear from dictionary

Toilet will be your doctor : 

Toilet will be your doctor Will measure: your sugar in blood, your health state

DNA Chips – Genetic Content : 

DNA Chips – Genetic Content Databank with DNA data: Forget Privacy

Tricorder – Instantly diagnose any desease : 

Tricorder – Instantly diagnose any desease

Mini MRI : 

Mini MRI IBM Mini MRI

Human Genome – Growing Human Organs : 

Human Genome – Growing Human Organs

Four Technologies that will Drive Changes : 

Four Technologies that will Drive Changes Cloud Computing

Cloud Computing : 

Cloud Computing If we compare Cloud Computing in next decade <=> Like DOS 2.0 compared to Windows 7. In 2010 -we are at DOS 2.0 phase

Slide 43: 

Social Computing Four Technologies that will Drive Changes

Slide 44: 

Context-Aware Computing Four Technologies that will Drive Changes

Slide 45: 

Pattern-Based Strategy – Getting value from “Big Data” Four Technologies that will Drive Changes

Confluence of this Four Technologies That Will Drive Changes are not known now : 

Confluence of this Four Technologies That Will Drive Changes are not known now

Slide 50: 

3 New Realities

Slide 51: 

3 New Realities

Slide 52: 

3 New Realities

We have choice! : 

3 times of today’s size We have choice!

Slide 54: 

5 times than the volume of data in US Congress Library

Slide 55: 

Great debate in the future: - I am opt-out?

Slide 57: 

Augmented reality Show me organic certification! Show me violation for genetic modification! Show me the fat and salt content!

Confluence of this Four Technologies That Will Drive Changes are not known now : 

Confluence of this Four Technologies That Will Drive Changes are not known now

Slide 62: 

CLOUD COMPUTING

Technologies Are "Lighter Weight." : 

Technologies Are "Lighter Weight." Networking #4 Business Intelligence #5 Virtualization #1 Cloud Computing #2 Social Media Web 2.0 #3 Mobility #6 2011

Creating a Lean and ResponsiveIT Organization : 

Creating a Lean and ResponsiveIT Organization Service andVendorManagement CIO & Technology Leadership A: Informationand Analytics C: Agile Solution Engineering Custom Solutions Engineering B: Business Process Change A B C Managed Services BPO CloudInfrastructure Sourcing ApplicationsOutsourcing Chief Information Officer Office of the CIO Chief Technical Officer Architecture: Information Process/Application Infrastructure sourcing Security and Risk Management Finance and Measurement 2011

Potential Cloud Benefits: Why Are People Doing This? : 

Potential Cloud Benefits: Why Are People Doing This? A shift from "capacity" on demand to "capability" on demand Decreased time to acquiring a capability due to "low barriers to entry" More effective agility and use of resources Increased operational efficiency/sharing through outsourcing (i.e., someone else does the work better) More options through more service providers Reduced cost of computing resources Clear line of sight to costs of computing resources Reduced power, cooling and space requirements costs Increased flexibility of expenditures through operating expenses, rather than capital expenses More finely targeted use of resources by paying only for what is needed A shift from technology use to "value" consumption Consumers pay for what they want to do, rather than for pieces of technology Results evaluated based on outcomes

Cloud Risks: 70% of Companies With Over 1,000 Employees Have Not Yet Started a Cloud Initiative — What Holds Them Back? : 

Cloud Risks: 70% of Companies With Over 1,000 Employees Have Not Yet Started a Cloud Initiative — What Holds Them Back? Security: Can you trust it? Lack of compliance reporting and auditing Ensuring quality and predictability of service and service remediation Delivering and verifying reduced cost over on-premises computing (business case costs and benefits) Remediation of failures Align business need with actual cloud reality Cloud-Computing Strategy and Implementation Source: Gartner 2010 Cloud Survey

Slide 67: 

Key Issues

Gartner's Definition of Cloud Computing and the Critical Attributes of Cloud Services : 

Internet Technologies Metered by Use Shared Scalable and Elastic Service-Based Services are delivered through use of Internet identifiers, formats and protocols. Services are tracked with usage metrics to enable multiple payment models. Services share a pool of resources to build economies of scale. Services scale on-demand to add or remove resources as needed. Consumer concerns are abstracted from provider concerns through service interfaces. Five attributes that support outcomes Gartner defines cloud computing as "a style of computing where scalable and elastic IT-related capabilities are provided 'as a service' to customers using Internet technologies". Gartner's Definition of Cloud Computing and the Critical Attributes of Cloud Services

Cloud Services Market Growth : 

Cloud Services Market Growth The worldwide market for cloud services was worth $58.6 billion in 2009. By 2014, the market will be worth $148.8 billion. Gartner has revised its five-year forecast growth rate from 26.5% to 20.5%. This downward revision, however, simply reflects the law of large numbers — that is, as the overall market grows, growth rates naturally diminish. Over the course of the next five years, enterprises will spend $112 billion cumulatively on software as a service, platform as a service and infrastructure as a service combined. North America is the largest country/regional market, representing 60% of the worldwide figure in 2009. During the next five years, North America will continue to be — by some distance — the largest market. There continues to be great diversity of activity, maturity and growth among the many different elements of the overall cloud services marketplace.

Cloud Computing: From Public to Private and Back : 

Through 2012, IT organizations will spend more money on private cloud-computing investments than on offerings from public cloud providers. Choose public if … There is a cost benefit. Service-level guarantees and security meet all requirements. All legal/data ownership and compliance requirements are met. Failure remediation/disaster recovery (including provider failure) is proven. Build private when … Pubic cloud fails to meet needs. Leverage Communities in Between Cloud Computing: From Public to Private and Back

Layers of a Cloud Ecosystem: The Value Is in Delivery "as a service" : 

Application Infrastructure Services (PaaS) Application Services (SaaS) System Infrastructure Services (IaaS) Layers of a Cloud Ecosystem: The Value Is in Delivery "as a service" Processes, Applications, Application Infrastructure, System Infrastructure Consumers Business and Information Services The Cloud Ecosystem Expectation/Satisfaction Management API management (WS*, REST, HTTP, Events) Providers

Cloud Services Exist in a Value Chain : 

Cloud Services Exist in a Value Chain Providers Provider vs. Enabler Business Models Up the chain, value is delivered. Down the chain, value is derived This is when "aaS" happens! Delivery Optional Brokerage Delivery Capabilities Consumption Delivery Capabilities Consumption (People and Process) Optional Brokerage This is the basic cloud equation! Providers Capabilities Consumption (Technology) Providers

Cloud Markets Are Growing With Adoption : 

$bn SaaS Cloud Markets Are Growing With Adoption SaaS becoming more mainstream Slightly slower IT spending ahead Multithousand seat deals are increasingly common

Cloud Markets Are Growing With Adoption : 

PaaS Platform Infrastructure high profile, low revenue Salesforce.com, VMware and Microsoft adding credibility Integration as a service (brokerage) growing $mn Cloud Markets Are Growing With Adoption

Cloud Markets Are Growing With Adoption : 

Cloud Markets Are Growing With Adoption IaaS Greater interest than expected 2013 market $8 billion (up from $6.8 billion) and 2014 market tobe worth $10 billion. $bn

Can Your IT Organization Handle a Business "Fly-By" to the Cloud? : 

Can Your IT Organization Handle a Business "Fly-By" to the Cloud? 83% Looking at SaaS Business Unit Can't wait for IT Looks easy Rapid "time to capability" Transparency of pricing Visibility to value Operational budget "IT? Umm … no!" Potential for shelfware as a service Possible governance issues of application portfolio Release management dictated by the provider Security concerns Longer-term TCO uncertainties OP2OD (on-premises to on-demand) integration

Face A New Money Reality to Keep Your Users : 

Face A New Money Reality to Keep Your Users Disconnect Price From Cost Customers pay for parts Customers trained to care about technology Budget recycling Customers stop IT from making sensible decisions Reconnect Price To Value Customers pay for what they need to do Customers trained to evaluate prices in terms of outcomes Providers are free to spend whatever makes sense Providers balance the "margin" between price and cost

The Evolution of Infrastructure and Private Cloud Computing Can Affect Your Books : 

The Evolution of Infrastructure and Private Cloud Computing Can Affect Your Books Is there anything left to capitalize?

And … Three Styles of Security for Public/Private Cloud Can Affect Your Safety : 

And … Three Styles of Security for Public/Private Cloud Can Affect Your Safety Security assessment difficulties Adequate information is hard to obtain. Data compromise risk Encryption is a partial solution to privacy issues. Data loss risk How do you back up a cloud service? Vendor viability and data portability concerns Open-cloud portability standards still immature. Growing potential for "cloud hacking" Can a highly distributed and virtualized environment be secure? Public Cloud Private Cloud Low Medium High Security built into VM is used Accept vendor security claims Third-party security on VM is used Certification/ accreditation of system Security is performed outside the VM Security product certification Brokered in cloud Custom or industry assessment Outside the cloud No trust of the cloud Security "Pressure" Trust of the Cloud Cloud provider security SAS 70 sufficient?

What Are the Rights and Responsibilities of Cloud Service Consumers? Assess Your Rights and Responsibilities in the Cloud : 

What Are the Rights and Responsibilities of Cloud Service Consumers? Assess Your Rights and Responsibilities in the Cloud The right to retain ownership, use and control of one's own data The right to service-level agreements that address liabilities, remediation and business outcomes The right to notification and choice about changes that affect the service consumer's business processes The right to understand the technical limitations or requirements of the service upfront The right to understand the legal requirements of jurisdictions in which the provider operates The right to know what security processes the provider follows The responsibility to understand and adhere to software license requirements

Industries Are Changing: Government Cloud Initiatives Can Affect Private-Sector Decisions : 

Industries Are Changing: Government Cloud Initiatives Can Affect Private-Sector Decisions Anyone Exclusive Ownership Agency Third Party Governmentwide LimitedMembership Service Access

The New Vendor Reality: A Risky Transition : 

The New Vendor Reality: A Risky Transition Manage the shift from product to service Risky proposition – giving away your customers Discover new pricing models Cannibalizing on-premises products New powerhouse vendors Will the business models work? Select vendors that demonstrate a grasp of the new reality.

What Are People Doing in the Cloud? : 

What Are People Doing in the Cloud? Collaboration and Productivity The largest Google enterprise deal is in apps Development and Test Mock up the data and move now Web Application Serving Servers are half there already E-mail Most major universities seeking to move SaaS SucessFactors won with a 420,000-seat deal with Siemens Prototyping Try before you buy Crowdsourcing Mining what the collective knows Context Information about people is everywhere

Hype Cycle for Cloud Computing, 2010 : 

Hype Cycle for Cloud Computing, 2010 From "Hype Cycle for Cloud Computing, 2010" G00201557

The Cloud — What's Inside? : 

The Cloud — What's Inside? The hype around the cloud obscures the very real sea-change occurring The cloud is the platform Cloud computing disrupts business models, operating principles and competitive strategies Transition between eras is never smooth Cloud, industrialized and "low cost IT services" are in your future Low-Cost IT A Few $ per User per Month, Why Should Your CFO Pay IT More?

Slicing the Cloud — Vertically:Cloud Computing — Service Layers : 

Slicing the Cloud — Vertically:Cloud Computing — Service Layers SaaS IaaS "PaaS"

Summary of Vendor Emphasis : 

Summary of Vendor Emphasis Public Services Amazon Salesforce.com Google Microsoft IBM VMware Oracle SAP Cisco Provider vs. Enabler IaaS Private Services Note: This is not an evaluation of capabilities, but rather of emphasis. PaaS SaaS

CIOs anticipate making significant infrastructure and application moves over the next five years : 

CIOs anticipate making significant infrastructure and application moves over the next five years 88

Weather Forecast for 4Q11 : 

Weather Forecast for 4Q11

Serbia : 

Serbia

Slide 91: 

•••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••• Cloud Computing Scenario Petar Kocovic Gartner-Serbia Sinergija Beograd, October 20, 2011 Petar.kocovic@gartner.com