Clustering2

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Slide1:

Topic: U.S. Senate Votes on Clinton Removal

Basic statistic - Total number of senators who votes on whether to remove President Clinton=100 - 45 guilty votes on Article I, Perjury - 50 guilty votes on Article II, Obstruction of Justice - Senator's degree of ideological conservativism (1-100): Average=47.31, Max=100, Min=0, Standard Deviation=37.48 -Percent of the vote Clinton received in 1996 Presidential election in each state Max=62, Min=33, Median=48 -38 senators are first-term senator :

Basic statistic - Total number of senators who votes on whether to remove President Clinton=100 - 45 guilty votes on Article I, Perjury - 50 guilty votes on Article II, Obstruction of Justice - Senator's degree of ideological conservativism (1-100): Average=47.31, Max=100, Min=0, Standard Deviation=37.48 -Percent of the vote Clinton received in 1996 Presidential election in each state Max=62, Min=33, Median=48 -38 senators are first-term senator

Association Rules MATLAB (ARMADA):

Association Rules MATLAB (ARMADA)

Association Rules MATLAB (ARMADA):

Association Rules MATLAB (ARMADA)

VARIABLE DESCRIPTIONS:

VARIABLE DESCRIPTIONS Attribute Representing figure Name of senator 1-26 for a to z State (postal code) 27-76 (Refer to next page) Number of votes for guilt 0.1.2 (77,78,79) Party: 0 = Democrat, 1 = Republican (80,81) Senator's degree of ideological conservativism (0-100, divided into 10 interval) (82-91) Percent of the vote Clinton received in the 1996 Presidential election in each state (0-100, divided into 10 interval) (92-101) The year each Senator's seat is up and he/she must run for re-election (or retire)(00,02,04) (102,103,104) First-term senator? 0 = no, 1 = yes (105,106)

Slide6:

State (postal code) AK 27 MD 46 RI 65 AL 28 ME 47 SC 66 AR 29 MI 48 SD 67 AZ 30 MN 49 TN 68 CA 31 MO 50 TX 69 CO 32 MS 51 UT 70 ... ... ... ... WI 74 WV 75 WY 76

ARMADA Results:

ARMADA Results

Hypothesis numbers of votes for guilt=2, party=republican, The year each Senator's seat is up and he/she must run for re-election (or retire)=2002 ---> Percent of the vote Clinton received during 1996 Presidential election in each state below 50%. :

Hypothesis numbers of votes for guilt=2, party=republican, The year each Senator's seat is up and he/she must run for re-election (or retire)=2002 ---> Percent of the vote Clinton received during 1996 Presidential election in each state below 50%.

Slide9:

We set s=10%, c=70% (file size=45) to mine the “guilty file” (guilty for both perjury and obstruction of justice), we obtain the following associated rules: (A) party=republican --> number of votes for guilt=2 support = 45, confidence=100 (B) The year each Senator's seat is up and he/she must run for re-election (or retire)=2002,First-term senator=no ---> Percent of the vote Clinton received in the 1996 Presidential election in each state=41-50% support = 7 confidence=87.5 (C) numbers of votes for guilt=2, The year each Senator's seat is up and he/she must run for re-election (or retire)=2002, first-term senator=no --> Percent of the vote Clinton received in the 1996 Presidential election in each state=41-50% support = 7 confidence=87.5 (D) numbers of votes for guilt=2, party=republican, The year each Senator's seat is up and he/she must run for re-election (or retire)=2002, first-term senator=no ---> Percent of the vote Clinton received in the 1996 Presidential election in each state=41-50% support = 7 confidence=87.5 (E) numbers of votes for guilt=2, party=republican, Percent of the vote Clinton received in the 1996 Presidential election in each state=41-50%, The year each Senator's seat is up and he/she must run for re-election (or retire)=2002 --> first-term senator=no support = 7 confidence=70 (F) numbers of votes for guilt=2, Senator's degree of ideological conservativism =71-80%, The year each Senator's seat is up and he/she must run for re-election (or retire)=2004 --> Percent of the vote Clinton received in the 1996 Presidential election in each state=41-50% support = 5 confidence=71.43

Association rules:

Association rules

Identification of states with similar voting pattern:

Identification of states with similar voting pattern Variable: Percent of the vote Clinton received in the 1996 Presidential election in each state

Identification of states with similar voting pattern:

Identification of states with similar voting pattern Variable: Percent of the vote Clinton received in the 1996 Presidential election in each state

Identification of states with similar voting pattern:

Identification of states with similar voting pattern Variable: Percent of the vote Clinton received in the 1996 Presidential election in each state

Identification of states with similar voting pattern:

Identification of states with similar voting pattern Variable: Percent of the vote Clinton received in the 1996 Presidential election in each state

S-Plus:

S-Plus Cluster Analysis

Clustering:

Clustering Single Linkage – shortest distance Average Linkage – average distance Complete Linkage – longest distance

Distance matrix:

Distance matrix 10 D 24 C 36 B 48 A D-D D-C D-B D-A C-D C-C C-B C-A B-D B-C B-B B-A A-D (48-10) A-C (48-24) A-B (48-36) A-A (48-48)

Clustering:

Clustering Single Linkage

Single Linkage:

Single Linkage

Clustering:

Clustering Average Linkage

Clustering:

Clustering Complete Linkage

Discussion & Conclusion:

Discussion & Conclusion

Conclusion:

Conclusion 37 WY 50 33 UT 44 35 NE 29 36 KS 16 34 ID 13 34 AK 1 Percent of the vote Clinton received in the 1996 Presidential election in each state State (postal code) State number 3X%

Slide27:

45 VA 45 44 TX 43 48 TN 42 43 SD 41 44 SC 40 47 OR 37 40 OK 36 48 OH 35 44 NV 33 40 ND 28 44 NC 27 41 MT 26 44 MS 25 48 MO 24 46 KY 17 42 IN 15 46 GA 10 48 FL 9 44 CO 6 47 AZ 4 43 AL 2 Percent of the vote Clinton received in the 1996 Presidential election in each state State (postal code) Group 4X%

Slide28:

51 WV 49 49 WI 48 51 WA 47 54 VT 46 60 RI 39 49 PA 38 59 NY 34 50 NM 32 53 NJ 31 49 NH 30 51 MN 23 52 MI 22 52 ME 21 54 MD 20 62 MA 19 52 LA 18 54 IL 14 50 IA 12 57 HI 11 52 DE 8 52 CT 7 51 CA 5 54 AR 3 Percent of the vote Clinton received in the 1996 Presidential election in each state State (postal code) Group 5X%

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