Group 2 (2)

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Topic: U.S. Senate Votes on Clinton Removal Group 2 Wilson Yu Winnie Ho Kian Wong Mike Lam

Objectives::

The senator who was belonging to republican party would put 2 guilty votes (perjury and obstruction of justice) on Clinton Removal. Identification of states with similar voting pattern Objectives:

Introduction U.S Senate Votes on Clinton Removal:

Each U.S. Senator voted on whether to remove President Clinton on two articles of impeachment Article 1 : Perjury (0 = Not Guilty, 1 = Guilty ) Article 2 : Obstruction of Justice (0 = Not Guilty, 1 = Guilty) Each Senator's values on several variables that could be predictive of vote Introduction U.S Senate Votes on Clinton Removal

Variables Description:

shelby AL 0 1 1 1 92 43 2004 0 sessions AL 1 1 2 1 100 43 2002 1 murkowsk AK 1 1 2 1 68 34 2004 0 stevens AK 0 1 1 1 58 34 2002 0 kyl AZ 1 1 2 1 96 47 2000 1 mccain AZ 1 1 2 1 80 47 2004 0 timhutch AR 1 1 2 1 100 54 2002 1 lincoln AR 0 0 0 0 36 54 2004 1 : : feingold WI 0 0 0 0 8 49 2004 0 kohl WI 0 0 0 0 20 49 2000 0 enzi WY 1 1 2 1 88 37 2002 1 thomas WY 1 1 2 1 84 37 2000 1 Variables Description 1-8 Name of senator 10-11 State (postal code) 13 Vote on Article I, Perjury 15 Vote on Article II, Obstruction of Justice 17 Number of votes for guilt 19 Party 21 – 23 Senator's degree of ideological conservativism 25 - 26 Percent of the vote Clinton received in the 1996 Presidential election in each state 28 – 31 The year each Senator's seat is up and he/she must run for re-election 33 First-term senator?

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Basic statistic N = 100

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Basic statistic N = 100

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Basic statistic N = 100

- Senator's degree of ideological conservativism (1-100): Average=47.31, Max=100, Min=0, Standard Deviation=37.48 -Percent of the vote Clinton received in 1996 Presidential election in each state Max=62, Min=33, Median=48 :

- Senator's degree of ideological conservativism (1-100): Average=47.31, Max=100, Min=0, Standard Deviation=37.48 -Percent of the vote Clinton received in 1996 Presidential election in each state Max=62, Min=33, Median=48 Basic statistic

The senator who was belonging to republican party will put 2 guilty votes (perjury and obstruction of justice) on Clinton Removal. :

The senator who was belonging to republican party will put 2 guilty votes (perjury and obstruction of justice) on Clinton Removal. Hypothesis

Association Rules MATLAB (ARMADA):

Association Rules MATLAB (ARMADA)

VARIABLE DESCRIPTIONS:

VARIABLE DESCRIPTIONS Attribute Representing figure Name of senator 1-26 for a to z State (postal code) 27-76 (Refer to next page) Number of votes for guilt 0.1.2 (77,78,79) Party: 0 = Democrat, 1 = Republican (80,81) Senator's degree of ideological conservativism (0-100, divided into 10 interval) (82-91) Percent of the vote Clinton received in the 1996 Presidential election in each state (0-100, divided into 10 interval) (92-101) The year each Senator's seat is up and he/she must run for re-election (or retire)(00,02,04) (102,103,104) First-term senator? 0 = no, 1 = yes (105,106)

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State (postal code) AK 27 MD 46 RI 65 AL 28 ME 47 SC 66 AR 29 MI 48 SD 67 AZ 30 MN 49 TN 68 CA 31 MO 50 TX 69 CO 32 MS 51 UT 70 ... ... ... ... WI 74 WV 75 WY 76

ARMADA Results:

ARMADA Results

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(A) party=republican --> number of votes for guilt=2 support = 45, confidence=100 (B) The year each Senator's seat is up and he/she must run for re-election (or retire)=2002,First-term senator=no ---> Percent of the vote Clinton received in the 1996 Presidential election in each state=41-50% support = 7 confidence=87.5 (C) numbers of votes for guilt=2, The year each Senator's seat is up and he/she must run for re-election (or retire)=2002, first-term senator=no --> Percent of the vote Clinton received in the 1996 Presidential election in each state=41-50% support = 7 confidence=87.5 (D) numbers of votes for guilt=2, party=republican, The year each Senator's seat is up and he/she must run for re-election (or retire)=2002, first-term senator=no ---> Percent of the vote Clinton received in the 1996 Presidential election in each state=41-50% support = 7 confidence=87.5 (E) numbers of votes for guilt=2, party=republican, Percent of the vote Clinton received in the 1996 Presidential election in each state=41-50%, The year each Senator's seat is up and he/she must run for re-election (or retire)=2002 --> first-term senator=no support = 7 confidence=70 (F) numbers of votes for guilt=2, Senator's degree of ideological conservativism =71-80%, The year each Senator's seat is up and he/she must run for re-election (or retire)=2004 --> Percent of the vote Clinton received in the 1996 Presidential election in each state=41-50% support = 5 confidence=71.43 We set s=10%, c=70% (file size=45) to mine the “guilty file” (guilty for both perjury and obstruction of justice), we obtained the following association rules:

Identification of states with similar voting pattern:

Identification of states with similar voting pattern Variable: Percent of the vote Clinton received in the 1996 Presidential election in each state

S-Plus:

S-Plus Cluster Analysis

Clustering:

Clustering Single Linkage – shortest distance Average Linkage – average distance Complete Linkage – longest distance

Distance matrix:

Distance matrix 10 D 24 C 36 B 48 A D-D D-C D-B D-A C-D C-C C-B C-A B-D B-C B-B B-A A-D (48-10) A-C (48-24) A-B (48-36) A-A (48-48)

Clustering:

Clustering Single Linkage

Single Linkage:

Single Linkage

Clustering:

Clustering Average Linkage

Clustering:

Clustering Complete Linkage

Discussion & Conclusion:

Discussion & Conclusion

Conclusion:

The senator who was belonging to republican party will put 2 guilty votes (perjury and obstruction of justice) on Clinton Removal. Conclusion 100% confidence

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Single Linkage => 3 clusters Conclusion

Conclusion:

Conclusion 337 WY 50 33 UT 44 35 NE 29 36 KS 16 34 ID 13 34 AK 1 Percent of the vote Clinton received in the 1996 Presidential election in each state State (postal code) State number 3X%

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445 VA 45 44 TX 43 48 TN 42 43 SD 41 44 SC 40 47 OR 37 40 OK 36 48 OH 35 44 NV 33 40 ND 28 44 NC 27 41 MT 26 44 MS 25 48 MO 24 46 KY 17 42 IN 15 46 GA 10 48 FL 9 44 CO 6 47 AZ 4 43 AL 2 Percent of the vote Clinton received in the 1996 Presidential election in each state State (postal code) Group 4X%

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551 WV 49 50 WI 48 51 WA 47 54 VT 46 60 RI 39 50 PA 38 59 NY 34 50 NM 32 53 NJ 31 50 NH 30 51 MN 23 52 MI 22 52 ME 21 54 MD 20 62 MA 19 52 LA 18 54 IL 14 50 IA 12 57 HI 11 52 DE 8 52 CT 7 51 CA 5 54 AR 3 Percent of the vote Clinton received in the 1996 Presidential election in each state State (postal code) Group 5X%

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Thank You

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