SOME GENERAL APPROACHES TO PALEARCTIC SYNANTROPIC RODENT CONTROL

SOME GENERAL APPROACHES TO PALEARCTIC SYNANTROPIC RODENT CONTROL:

SOME GENERAL APPROACHES TO PALEARCTIC SYNANTROPIC RODENT CONTROL SOME GENERAL APPROACHES TO PALEARCTIC SYNANTROPIC RODENT CONTROL Valentin Rylnikov

The objective and goals:

The objective and goals

Algorithm to exercise rodent management:

Algorithm to exercise rodent management Determination of the number of the target species Evaluation of the habitat Determination of the main relocation graph Evaluation of probability of meeting an agent Does one use rodenticides ? Are these the rodenticides of acute effect? The rodenticides of cumulative effect The evaluation of probability of death taking into account age composition and substance resistance The evaluation of probability of death taking into account age composition and avoidance response Implements of haul Does one use combination of chemical and physical methods? The evaluation of probability of death under using combination of chemical and physical methods taking into account age composition Evaluation of probability of release under evaluation of : 1) Qualification of operator; 2) Natural death, migration taking into account the level of birth Evaluation of the speed of the number restoration Evaluation of the final result yes no no yes no yes

Material and methods:

Material and methods

Field conditions:

Field conditions After having used the rodenticide bait and coverings in field, w arfarin was used as a part of composition f or experimental evaluation of success probability . Tetracycline, or oxytetracycline , or chlorotetracycline ( 0,5% ) were used as markers

Cross section of upper incisors of brown rat in ultraviolet light:

Cross section of upper incisors of brown rat in ultraviolet light Cross section of upper incisors of brown rat in ultraviolet light ; less ( left ), more ( right)

Field and laboratory conditions:

Field and laboratory conditions During field and lab experiments we also used other indandione -type and coumarin -type anticoagulants as well as phosphide zinc ( ZnPh )

Results:

Results

THE FIRST PHASE:

THE FIRST PHASE At the first phase we determined a main rodents relocation graph and chose the places to locate rodent control agents by means of analyzing the quantity of life activity markings: quantity of fresh excrement, bait eating, the number of footprints in footmark areas, quantity of dead rodents, quantity of rodents that were caught unto traps

The rout of movement of the brawn rat in the basement of a dwelling house:

The rout of movement of the brawn rat i n the basement of a dwelling house The rout of movement of the brawn rat i n the basement of a dwelling house is depicted in the graph with connection to the walls, partition walls with places with most activity near the column with the trash. 1.- Trash ducts 2 . -Touts of mouse movements Observations made by Melkov V.K.

Palatability of container with baits in the basement of the dwelling house:

Palatability of container with baits in the basement of the dwelling house While withdrawing from the trash duct the quantity of the eaten bait is descreased . 4. Trash ducts 3. The bait totally eaten 2. Half-eaten 1. Has not been touched Following Melkov V.K.

Allocation of brown rats in the basement of the dwelling house:

Allocation of brown rats in the basement of the dwelling house a - caught by Gero traps; b - dead after deratization ; 1 - trash ducts . Following Melkova V.K.

Traffic of mouse at the floured sites in the canteen rooms for workers of the enterprise:

Traffic of mouse at the floured sites in the canteen rooms for workers of the enterprise 1 ‒ The footmarks of the mice at the sites were not marked 2 - The sites with less traffic 3 - Average traffic 4 - Heavy traffic Following L.A. Khlyap and A.S. Malikova

Trapping of the house mice in the canteen of the enterprise :

Trapping of the house mice in the canteen of the enterprise 1 ‒ not caught ; 2 – 1-2 mice caught ; 3 – 3-10 mice caught . Following L.A. Khlyap and A.S. Malikova .

The percentage of sites with footmarks. Exposition in the canteen rooms:

The percentage of sites with footmarks. Exposition in the canteen rooms x-time of exposition, days y-the percentage of footmarked sites (%) a. Evaluation of mice in February; b. Evaluation of mice in April Following L.A.Khlyap and A.S. Malikova

THE SECOND PHASE:

THE SECOND PHASE At the second phase we evaluated the probability of rodents death as a result of their contact with an agent in the places of its location

Statistically average death of rats and mice under rodenticide application (in the ration from the initial quantity of the trials):

Statistically average death of rats and mice under rodenticide application (in the ration from the initial quantity of the trials) The condition of experiments The victims share The victims share In the field experiments Not more than 0,7 Not more than 0,9 In laboratory Not more than 0,7 0,7 – 1,0

In laboratory The victims share on whole grain baits containing indandione anticoagulants:

In laboratory The victims share on whole grain baits containing indandione anticoagulants Brown rats Anticoagu - lants Substance in the bait , % Palatabi - lity of bait, % Share of death 1 0,015 76 1 , 00 2 0,015 45 1 , 00 3 0,015 36 0, 90 4 0,015 33 0, 90 5 0,015 18 0, 80 6 0,015 14 0, 80 7 0,015 11 0, 80 House mice Anticoagu - lants Substance in the bait , % Palatabi - lity of bait, % Share of death 1 0,01% 55 0, 90 2 0,01% 54 0, 90 3 0,01% 43 0, 90 4 0,015% 35 0, 80 5 0,015% 46 0, 70 6 0,015% 31 0, 70 7 0,015% 16 0, 60

Comparative efficacy of two rodenticide by mice in the basement of the dwelling house:

Comparative efficacy of two rodenticide by mice in the basement of the dwelling house Comparative efficacy of two rodenticide by mice in the basement of the dwelling house The rats that ate flour with 0,025 % of warfarin , 0,5 % tetracycline and 10% of sugar The rats that ate both baits Number of rats Ratio of rats that ate the bait Number of rats Ratio of rats that ate the bait Number of rats Ratio of rats that ate the bait 51 0,82 24 0,40 19 0,30

Probability estimation of  death among Brown rats, young and adult, from rodenticide baits in the basement of the dwelling house:

Probability estimation of  death among Brown rats, young and adult, from rodenticide baits in the basement of the dwelling house

Share of survived Brown rats of different gender and age in course of their 1,5 month extermination with warfarin bait (with the additive oxytetracycline), %:

Share of survived Brown rats of different gender and age in course of their 1,5 month extermination with warfarin bait ( with the additive oxytetracycline ) , % Age (in month) Male Female 3-6 67,6±8,1* 57,1±7,7 Older than 7 32,4±8,1* 42,8±7,7 Number of rats of all ages 34 42 * - differencies are true, p<0.05

Dynamics of consumption of the rodenticide bait (warfarin and antibiotic of tetracycline group) by survived Brown rats of different gender and age groups :

Dynamics of consumption of the rodenticide bait ( warfarin and antibiotic of tetracycline group) by survived Brown rats of different gender and age groups a – male: 1 – p=23, up to 6 months, 2-p=11m, ore than 7 months b- female: 1 – p=24, up to 6 months, 2-p=18, more than 7 months Axis of abscissa – days from the date of catch, ordinat axis – frequency of marks in relation to 1 rat c – male: 1 – p=23, up to 6 months, 2-p=11, more than 7 months d- female: 1 – p=24, up to 6 months, 2-p=18, more than 7 months Axis of abscissa – says from the date of catch, ordinat axis – frequency of marks in relation to 1 rat

Share of Brown rats different ages in April-May:

Share of Brown rats different ages in April-May Numbers above the columns stand for the number of rats of the given age, caught with traps or picked up fallen

Probability estimation of  death of Brown rats in the basement of the dwelling house in condition simultaneous application rodenticide baits and coverings:

Probability estimation of  death of Brown rats in the basement of the dwelling house in condition simultaneous application rodenticide baits and coverings

Application of rodenticide drugs: coverage and bait for the Brown rats:

Application of rodenticide drugs: coverage and bait for the Brown rats Number of area Extermination means Extermina-tion means Extermina-tion means Share of dead % 1 ( winter ) Warfarin paste with 0.5% of warfarin and, simultaneously bait with 0.025% of warfarin 11 51 min 82,0 2 ( winter ) 0,025% warfarin bait 13 10 min 44,0

Estimation of probability of  catching Brown rats by traps in the basement of the dwelling house:

Estimation of probability of  catching Brown rats by traps in the basement of the dwelling house

Probability estimation of catching Brown rats by arc traps:

Probability estimation of catching Brown rats by arc traps 1 ‒ number of the caught rats , 2 ‒ the average curve Within 30 days more than 90% of rats can be caught On condition of interchange of rodenticide -preservative with traps the probability of death made 0.99 Справа поместить изображение дугового капкана

THIRD PHASE:

THIRD PHASE Probability estimation of object deliverance from rodents and to recolonize an object by them

Probability estimation of object deliverance from synantropic rodents:

Probability estimation of object deliverance from synantropic rodents

Probability estimation of object deliverance from rodents (P)E|X)) depending on qualified operator (P(E)) and probability of death of rats of the overall natural and violent death (P(X|E)) (according to Bayess formula):

Probability estimation of object deliverance from rodents (P)E|X)) depending on qualified operator (P(E)) and probability of death of rats of the overall natural and violent death (P(X|E)) (according to Bayess formula) On this example the dynamic element (P(X|E)) will aquire value in relation to data received by D Davis (Davis 1951), as well as D. Hartley, and J. Bishop (Hartley, Bishop, 1979), the death rate will (in share) make around: In winter – 0.90, in spring – 0.30, in summer – 0.50, in autumn – 0.70

Probability estimation of recolonization object by rodents :

Probability estimation of recolonization object by rodents

The order of recolonization of territory by rodents :

The order of recolonization of territory by rodents Zones (1-5) of site where eradication was made (processed) with adjoining not processed territory (0). The arrays indicate the primary direction of movement of the migrants on density gradient.

Calculated values of dynamic of rodents recolonization in every of five zones of processed area (1-5) and not processed area (0) in first and second quarter:

Calculated values of dynamic of rodents recolonization in every of five zones of processed area (1-5) and not processed area (0) in first and second quarter

Calculated values of dynamic of rodents recolonization in every of five zones of processed area (1-5) and not processed area (0) in first and second quarter:

Calculated values of dynamic of rodents recolonization in every of five zones of processed area (1-5) and not processed area (0) in first and second quarter

Probability of restoration of rodents quntity (P(U|Y)) depending on environmental capacity (P(U)) (on Bayess formula):

Probability of restoration of rodents quntity (P(U|Y)) depending on environmental capacity (P(U)) (on Bayess formula) Dynamic element, probability (P(U|Y)) of the event "rodent appears on facility on condition that environment is enough for its inhabitation" was calculated on the basis of accoun“ing of the number of grey rats on areas of rice fields of Krasnodar Krai , processed with rodenticides . Calculated values of dynamic of rodents in every of five zones of processed area (1-5) and not processed area (0) in second and third quarter. Calculated values of dynamic of rodents in every of five zones of processed area (1-5) and not processed area (0) in second and third quarter

EXPERT SYSTEM:

EXPERT SYSTEM Thus, if we know the character of population growth, the procedure to provide rodent management, the probability of their death during all interim phases when applying separate methods, modes and techniques, it is possible to prognosticate final results, namely, the final probability of the freeing of an object and the subsequent restoration of rodent population. The description of mathematical tools when using the Theory of Graphs and the Theory of Probability is in the materials of the conference. When information about Brown rats number and their distribution in a city in retrospection is available, it is possible to prognosticate certain expectations at any point at any settlement in Palaearctic region using the expert system. The expert system can also be used as simulator or examiner. You can familiarize yourselves with my report in details using the published materials of the conference.

Many thanks for your attention!:

Many thanks for your attention ! Rylnikov Valentin . / SOME GENERAL APPROACHES TO PALEARCTIC SYNANTROPIC RODENT CONTROL 7 th International Conferences on Urban Pests ( Ouro Pretto , 08-11 August, 2011) © Rylnikov Valentin ., 2011