Peak Oil AwarenessInformation and Education Session :Peak Oil AwarenessInformation and Education Session Presented by


Who are we? :Who are we? A local citizen group offering information and practical ideas for living in a time of reduced energy availability. We’re working on small-scale, realistic alternatives to dependence on the current economic system. Seattle Peak Oil Awareness


What is this about? :What is this about? What is “Peak Oil”? When Will it Happen? What does it mean for… Ourselves and our families? Our community? What can we do to prepare? We’re here to talk about Peak Oil


What do we hope to accomplish? :What do we hope to accomplish? This presentation is intended to raise your awareness of Peak Oil. We hope to show you that… Fossil fuels will soon become less plentiful, less readily available and increasingly expensive The coming decline in fossil fuel production could wreak havoc with our way of life and force all of us to make dramatic changes in how we live How we respond, both individually and collectively, will determine the nature of the post-Peak quality of life for ourselves and our loved ones.


What is Peak Oil? :What is Peak Oil? Hubbert discovered that oil production follows a bell-shaped curve The first oil produced is always the “easy stuff” (think: gusher); As the “low hanging fruit” is gradually depleted, additional production becomes increasingly difficult and expensive. When approximately half of the total oil available has been produced, the point of maximum production is reached. Thereafter, production begins an inevitable decline - - the previous peak will never be recovered or exceeded. A model for predicting oil production developed in the 1950s by Shell Oil geologist, M. King Hubbert


Does Hubbert’s Model Work? :Does Hubbert’s Model Work? Based on his model, in 1956 Hubbert predicted that oil production in the US lower 48 states would peak in the early 1970s This prediction was ridiculed by the oil industry and government experts Hubbert was right: US oil production peaked in 1971, and has been steadily declining ever since


We’re Not “Running Out of Oil” :We’re Not “Running Out of Oil” Peak Oil means we’ve used up about half of nature’s bounty of fossil fuels This sounds good; however, the half we’ve used was the easy stuff to get…the cheap oil From the peak onward, every barrel will be harder and more expensive to produce, and, as a result, we’ll produce less of it That’s why “non-conventional” fossil fuels (like Canadian “oil sands”) are no answer - - they’re expensive and they require much more energy to produce than light crude Eventually, it’ll take more energy to produce the remaining oil than the oil itself will generate At that point, unless we have an energy alternative in place, the lights go out


Now, The World is Nearing Peak :Now, The World is Nearing Peak Leading researchers using Hubbert’s model are predicting a worldwide peak of fossil fuel production by 2010 We’re “in the zone” right now. Worst case, we already peaked. Source: ASPO-USA, 2008


Can’t We Just Find Some More? :Can’t We Just Find Some More? It’s highly unlikely Peak discovery typically precedes peak production by 25 to 30 years World oil discovery peaked in the mid-1960s and has been declining ever since Source: ASPO-USA, 2008


Consequences of Peak Oil :Consequences of Peak Oil How will oil depletion impact our lives in the years ahead? Limits to Growth: The Industrial Growth Economy Will Stall Fossil-Fueled Mass Consumption Will Slow Transportation Sector Will Be Impaired Modern Agriculture Runs on Fossil Fuels, Food Shortages Likely at Some Point Unprecedented Era of Stagflation & Possible Hyperinflation, Depending on Government Responses Resource Wars Likely (and Already Underway)


Lights Out? :Lights Out? © The New Yorker


What About Alternatives to Oil? :What About Alternatives to Oil? Non-renewable Alternatives  Coal   Natural gas  Nuclear Fission    Liquid Natural gas   Coal to Liquids   Shale Oil / Tar Sands    Methane Hydrates      Renewable Alternatives  Wind  Hydro  Solar  Geothermal   Biomass   Biofuels  Thermal DePolymerization   “Futuristic” Alternatives   Hydrogen  Nuclear Fusion  Clean Coal  Shortcomings Also a Depleting Resource Can’t Replace Enough Oil Questionable Energy Input Costs Not Actually Realistic Can’t Transport as a Liquid Problems in Cold Weather Dangerous or Extremely Dirty Too Late to Start or Build Out We will use all of these, but they will not preserve the Industrial Growth Economy


So, What Will the Future Hold? :So, What Will the Future Hold? In his recent book Powerdown, Peak Oil researcher Richard Heinberg outlines four possible options for our post-peak future: Last one standing Powerdown Waiting for the “magic elixir” Building lifeboats


OK, Things Look Pretty GrimIs There Anything We Can Do? :OK, Things Look Pretty GrimIs There Anything We Can Do? Yes! Each one of us can (and should) take the following steps to prepare for Peak Oil: Educate ourselves, friends and loved ones about Peak Oil and what it means Assess our energy dependence and practical coping skills we have or need Then Act to Develop a plan for ourselves and our families Learn the skills we’ll need to survive Raise Peak Oil awareness in local organizations, in our neighborhoods, and in our community Strengthen communal ties with our fellow citizens Develop resilient local economies that leverage local resources in a sustainable way


What is Seattle Peak Oil Doing? :What is Seattle Peak Oil Doing? Develop a plan for ourselves and our families Reducing personal debt and energy consumption habits Learn the skills we’ll need to survive Sharing basic skills like gardening, cooking, cycling, etc Raise Peak Oil awareness in local organizations, in our neighborhoods, and in our community Giving talks like this one Strengthen communal ties with our fellow citizens Meeting regularly with people who can offer mutual support during times of crisis Develop resilient local economies that leverage local resources in a sustainable way Small Town in the City Program Sail Transportation Network


Thank You! :Thank You! The barrel is half empty… www.seattleoil.com