Teaching Climate Change to Skeptics

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An effective way of teaching climate change is to balance risk against reward (1). Climate change is already costing us (2). Wildfires, droughts, and refugees are increasing; storms becoming more violent; floods setting record heights; and glaciers melting. If we do nothing, it could cost $ 1 trillion/year (2). Climate science tells us the risks. The stable climate for the last 10,000 years helped explode our population from 3x106 to 7x109. Our carbon dioxide emissions are warming the earth via the greenhouse effect. At the present rate of CO2 increase, concentrations will reach 700 ppm by 2100. Millions of year ago, sea levels were 300 feet higher at 700 ppm. Sea Levels could rise as much as 3 feet by 2015 and 15 feet by 2059 according to James Hansen’s paper in the Journal of Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics (March 2016). Predictions of massive flood losses for the world’s 136 largest coastal cities are US$60-$63 billion per year in 2050 compared to $6 billion in 2005. Failure to act could lead to global losses upwards of $1 trillion annually (1). REFERENCES: (1) Carmen Nobel, “Teaching Climate Change to Skeptics” Forbes. Sept 9, 2013. (2) H. Paulson, M. Bloomberg. www.riskybusiness.org

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Teaching Climate Change To Skeptics :

Teaching Climate Change To Skeptics Paul H. Carr www.MirrorOfNature.org New England Section of the American Physical Society Meeting Massachusetts College of Liberal Arts, North Adams, MA 28-29 October 2016

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View from Mass College of Liberal Arts, North Adams, MA

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Teaching Climate Change To Skeptics FORBES, Sept 9, 2013 CARMEN NOBEL, Harvard Business School The Business and Environment Initiative at Harvard Business School aims to shift the debate about climate change from a political discussion to a practical conversation about risk and reward. Even if you believe there is an 80 percent chance climate change is not man-made, the dramatic consequences make it worth trying to do something about it.

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Climate Change Cost Forbes . Sept 9, 2013. Carmen Nobel, Harvard Business School. Predictions of massive flood losses for the world’s 136 largest coastal cities are US$60-$63 billion per year in 2050 compared to $6 billion in 2005. Failure to act could lead to global losses upwards of $1 trillion annually . REFERENCES: H. Paulson, M. Bloomberg. www.riskybusiness.org  

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During the steepest warming, the CO 2 released (dots) from the sea preceded the global temperature rise (green line) by several centuries. CO2 RATE OF CHANGE is 1/300 of the PRESENT RISE. CO2 greenhouse effect drove the 3.5 C increase in average global temperature. Sea levels rose ~ 100 meters (~ 328 feet). Flood stories 4 M PEOPLE 7 B Ice Age Nature, 484, 49-54 (05 Apr 2012) CHANGES IN THE EARTH’S TILT & ORBIT TRIGGERD THE ICE AGE WARMING 5

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At present rate of 2.5 ppm rise per year, humans are increasing CO2 at a  rate 300 times faster than the recovery from the ice age 18,000 -10,000 years ago. CO2 CONCENTRATIONS, HIGHEST (33%) IN 800,000 YRS, WILL REACH 1000 PPM IN 240 YEARS.

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The rate of sea level increase correlates with the blue line of CO2 increase. Sea level rise is a proxy for global temperature, due to thermal expansion (50%) & the melting of ice (50%) Sea level rise rate has increased 4 times: 3.1 mm/year ( 1 ft /100 yr. ) now from 0.8 mm/year in 1900 7

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Sea Levels could rise as much as 3 to 15 feet in 50 to 150 years The Gulf Stream, which warms Northern Europe, will slow & shut- down. Referred 2016 Journal article Atmos. Chem. Phys. Mar. 2016 by NASA scientist James Hansen and 13 co-authors.

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Atmos. Chem. Phys., 16, 3761–3812, Mar 2016 www.atmos-chem-phys.net/16/3761/2016/ doi:10.5194/acp-16-3761-2016 © Author(s) 2016. CC Attribution 3.0 License. Ice melt, sea level rise and superstorms: evidence from paleoclimate data, climate modeling, and modern observations that 2 C global warming could be dangerous James Hansen1, Makiko Sato1, Paul Hearty2, Reto Ruedy3,4, Maxwell Kelley3,4, Valerie Masson-Delmotte5, Gary Russell4, George Tselioudis4, Junji Cao6, Eric Rignot7,8, Isabella Velicogna7,8, Blair Tormey9, Bailey Donovan10, Evgeniya Kandiano11, Karina von Schuckmann12, Pushker Kharecha1,4, Allegra N. Legrande4, Michael Bauer4,13, and Kwok-Wai Lo3,4 1Climate Science, Awareness and Solutions, Columbia University Earth Institute, New York, NY 10115, USA 2Department of Environmental Studies, University of North Carolina at Wilmington, NC 28403, USA 3Trinnovium LLC, New York, NY 10025, USA 4NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, 2880 Broadway, New York, NY 10025, USA 5Institut Pierre Simon Laplace, Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement (CEA-CNRS-UVSQ), Gif-sur-Yvette, France 6Key Lab of Aerosol Chemistry & Physics, Institute of Earth Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Xi’an 710075, China 7Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA 91109, USA 8Department of Earth System Science, University of California, Irvine, CA 92697, USA 9Program for the Study of Developed Shorelines, Western Carolina University, Cullowhee, NC 28723, USA 10Department of Geological Sciences, East Carolina University, Greenville, NC 27858, USA 11GEOMAR, Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research, Wischhofstrasse 1–3, Kiel 24148, Germany 12Mediterranean Institute of Oceanography, University of Toulon, La Garde, France 13Department of Applied Physics and Applied Mathematics, Columbia University, New York, NY 10027, USA Correspondence to: James Hansen (jeh1@columbia.edu) Received: 11 June 2015 – Published in Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss.: 23 July 2015 Revised: 17 February 2016 – Accepted: 18 February 2016 – Published: 22 March 2016 Received: 11 Jun 2015  –  Published in Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss.: 23 Jul 2015 Revised: 17 Feb 2016  –  Accepted: 18 Feb 2016  –  Published: 22 Mar 2016

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Sea levels could rise by 1 m (3 ft ) by 2050. Could we take action to prevent a 5 m (15 ft ) rise by 2058? The lifetime of CO2 is 100 years. Atmos. Chem. Phys., March 2016. J. Hansen et. al. 1 M TIPPING LEVEL

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The Coming Climate Crash: Lessons for Climate Change in the 2008 Recession By HENRY M. PAULSON Jr. Secretary of the Treasury under Pres. George W. Bush. Co-Author of www.RiskyBusiness.org JUNE 21, 2014 http://www.nytimes.com/2014/06/22/opinion/sunday/lessons-for-climate-change-in-the-2008-recession.html “We’re staring down a climate bubble that poses enormous risks to both our environment  and economy . The warning signs are clear and growing more urgent as the risks go unchecked. A tax on carbon emissions will unleash a wave of innovation to develop technologies, lower the costs of clean energy and create jobs as we and other nations develop new energy products and infrastructure. Climate change is the challenge of our time. We’ve seen and felt the costs of underestimating the financial bubble. Let’s not ignore the climate bubble.”

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10/9/15 www. CitizensClimateLobby.org - Revenue neutral carbon fee with dividend. -Dividend would be returned to everyone. -Stimulating economy & creating 2 million jobs.

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STEPS FOR SUCCESSFUL CHANGE 1.Create a sense of emergency 2. Pull together a guiding team 3. Decide what to do 4. Communicate for understanding & buy-in 5. Empower others to act 6. Produce short term win 7. Don’t let up 8 Create a new culture.

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Social unrest accompanies food price increases. Summer 2010 drought in Russia: No longer exported wheat. http://www.zerohedge.com/news/deja-food-will-social-unrest-surge-corn-prices-soar

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CONCLUSIONS 1. WEATHER EXTREMES ARE INCREASING - Wet areas are becoming wetter: Floods, Snow Atmosphere holds more water at higher temps. -Dry areas, drier: Droughts, Wildfires 2. IF SEA LEVELS RISE BY 1 METER by 2050 WILL THERE BE ENOUGH TIME TO PREVENT A RISE TO 5 METER (15 FT) IN 2058? 3. START PHASING-OUT FOSSIL FUEL BURNING WITH CARBON FEE & DIVIDEND 15

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Prophetic Pope Francis: MORAL IMPERATATIVE: Stop plundering our planet for profit, the poor suffering the most. 200 Page Encyclical Laudato Si: On Care for our Common Home. June 2015

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THE “ WICKED PROBLEM ” OF CLIMATE CHANGE: WHAT IS IT DOING TO US AND FOR US? 62 nd Conference of the Institute on Religion in an Age of Science, www.iras.org June 24 — July 1, 2017 . Star Island off Portsmouth, NH. Climate change is complex with causes and consequences in economic, ecological, ethical, and technological realms. How can global warming be a catalyst for societal and spiritual transformation?  

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IRAS CLIMATE CONFERENC SPEAKERS TO DATE Theologian, Rev. Dr. Matthew Fox Chaplain, Rev. Dr. Mary Westfall Scientists: Paul H. Carr,PhD ; Robert S.  Pikart,PhD ; Emily Austin,PhD ; Solomon H. Katz,PhD ; Bill Shoemaker,PhD .

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Star Island 200 year-old Chapel

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S Sunrise on Star Island

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SUNSET OVER PORTSMOUTH, NH FROM STAR ISLAND

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