logging in or signing up pollsbosnia96 parker Download Post to : URL : Related Presentations : Share Add to Flag Embed Email Send to Blogs and Networks Add to Channel Uploaded from authorPOINTLite Insert YouTube videos in PowerPont slides with aS Desktop Copy embed code: (To copy code, click on the text box) Embed: URL: Thumbnail: WordPress Embed Customize Embed The presentation is successfully added In Your Favorites. Views: 36 Category: Entertainment License: All Rights Reserved Like it (0) Dislike it (0) Added: December 23, 2007 This Presentation is Public Favorites: 0 Presentation Description No description available. Comments Posting comment... Premium member Presentation Transcript Interpreting POLL data: Interpreting POLL data American Public Opinion and BOSNIA“American Public Opinion & Civil War in Bosnia: Events, Attention and Knowledge”: “American Public Opinion & Civil War in Bosnia: Events, Attention and Knowledge” Data for this presentation based on paper by S.E. Bennett,R.S. Flickinger, S.L. Rhine Paper presented at 1996 ISPP Conference Public Opinion data 1992-1996 from TIMES-MIRROR Center for People &PressResearch Focus: Research Focus X= time (1992-96) Y= changes in US publics’ attitudes towards: Y1 = US involvement in Bosnia Y2= US ‘s engagement in Post-Cold War world Y3= foreign policy problemsIntroduction: Introduction Will US public turn away from outside world in post-Cold War era? Role of public opinion in new era? policy by public opinion polls vs little impact-for policySurvey of Literature:: Survey of Literature: Scholars disagree regarding both concerns (Holsti 1992; Yankleovich and Destler 1994) Several studies suggest role of p.o. more important than formerly dominant “realist” interpretations such as Lippman (1955) and Cohen (1973) suggests (Bennett and Paletz 1994; Deese, 1994) Conceptualization (putting knowns with unknowns): Conceptualization (putting knowns with unknowns) recent data -public ambivalence about foreign policy in post-Cold War era -2/3rds of public favored an active world role for US -1994, 1990,1986 (Reilly,1995) News - US relations with other - constant BUT declines in perceptions of foreign policy problems importance% Agree foreign policy & defense most important problems facing US: % Agree foreign policy & defense most important problems facing US 1980 32.1% 1984 33.2% 1988 9.7% 1992 3.1% NES Poll dataDifferent interpretations- Use Bosnia case to assess significance: Different interpretations- Use Bosnia case to assess significance Lots of media coverage-BOSNIA Did public learn? How attentive were Americans over time? relative impact back-ground factors, events on ground, policies acts US,others?Assess relative importance 3 factors:: Assess relative importance 3 factors: 1) events “on the ground” in other countries 2) leadership by national policy elites (President) 3) media coverage of #1 & #2 Control for “Individual differences” i.e. mental models, prior knowledge location in social structure Model - How people process & retain political information: Model - How people process & retain political information Prior cognitions (Converse,1975) Location in social system Interest in politics “Say, who is this chick Bosnia? SCHEMA (Shank & Abelson1977) Education,work,where live “many Americans ‘tune out’ political informationTrends in Americans’ attention to news stories-Bosnia 1992-6: Trends in Americans’ attention to news stories-Bosnia 1992-6 see Table 1 How many paying close attention? (very) When peaked? Why? (deployment vs word shift) What events associated -”ebb & flow”??? Describe overall pattern Why?Trends in Americans’ attention to BOSNIA new stories : Trends in Americans’ attention to BOSNIA new stories Past research finds public pays more attention to STORIES: war -US troops or stories evoke pride & patriotism accidents natural disastersTrends among “attentive public”- Table 2: Trends among “attentive public”- Table 2 The “ATTENTIVE Public” foreign policy = better educated better-off ($50,000+) middle-aged men Does this trend hold for BOSNIA? Why college experience - a strong correlate???: Why college experience - a strong correlate??? “knowledge-gap” thesis - Some people learn more quickly about a new issue because well-educated better prepared at outset cognitive skills, acquisition previous information, social location....> understand significance of “new issues”Inferred hypothesis:: Inferred hypothesis: H1: As crisis continues, the “attentiveness gap” between college schooled and others will narrow ...especially if US military forces involvedBUT associations are weak: BUT associations are weak What OTHER Factors are at work?Media coverage: Media coverage thesis - media coverage influences interest in issues i.e., Bosnia see Figure 1 Is there a pattern? What happened Summer,Fall 1995???Coverage & Interest coincide with greater war activity & plans to send US. troops: Coverage & Interest coincide with greater war activity & plans to send US. troops June 1995 Clinton speeches “send troops” Capt. O’Grady shot down Serb overran “safe areas”, NATO bombings Nov 1995 Dayton Accord Jan. 1996 82% public very/fairly interested in Bosnia (see Figure 2)BUT How informed were Americans about Bosnia?: BUT How informed were Americans about Bosnia? see TABLE 3 Initially, how informed? Over time? Had things changed by Summer, 1995? why? more attention...>more knowledge of conflictWho knows? Knowledge about Bosnia (Table 4): Who knows? Knowledge about Bosnia (Table 4) SIGNIFICANT trends related to??: Education level Demographics (gender) SES (social-economic status)What is strongest relationship?: What is strongest relationship? Which demographic variable is most highly correlated with knowledge? see Table 4A multi-variate statistical model of individual effects - Table 5: A multi-variate statistical model of individual effects - Table 5 Y = Knowledge Index 1.which ethic group conquered most?; 2. why fighting? 3. what does ethnic cleansing mean? 4.heard about NATO’s threat to use military force against Serbs?A OLS Regression Model of individual effects (Table 5): A OLS Regression Model of individual effects (Table 5) Independent Variables (Xs): X1 = AGE X2 = GENDER X3 = RACE X4 = EDUCATION X5 = Family Income X6=Attention to domestic media stories X7=Follow Bosnia X8-X11 = Follow other foreign policy issues How good a “fit”?: How good a “fit”? Cognitive ability (education), location in social structure,attention to media generally, & Bosnia crisis shape Americans’ knowledge) TOTAL VARIANCE EXPLAINED by model? What ‘s missing from model?Overall Findings:: Overall Findings: Events, media coverage, public attention to coverage & knowledge of conflict all related Xs Attentiveness gap narrowed over time AND greater US military involvement Knowledge levels increased over time, greatest for most educated (attentive public)Future research???: Future research??? Will Bosnia cease to be important to the American public after US troops leave? Policy implications? Is public opinion a resource or constraint on formulation of American foreign policy? Related research questions? You do not have the permission to view this presentation. In order to view it, please contact the author of the presentation.
pollsbosnia96 parker Download Post to : URL : Related Presentations : Share Add to Flag Embed Email Send to Blogs and Networks Add to Channel Uploaded from authorPOINTLite Insert YouTube videos in PowerPont slides with aS Desktop Copy embed code: (To copy code, click on the text box) Embed: URL: Thumbnail: WordPress Embed Customize Embed The presentation is successfully added In Your Favorites. Views: 36 Category: Entertainment License: All Rights Reserved Like it (0) Dislike it (0) Added: December 23, 2007 This Presentation is Public Favorites: 0 Presentation Description No description available. Comments Posting comment... Premium member Presentation Transcript Interpreting POLL data: Interpreting POLL data American Public Opinion and BOSNIA“American Public Opinion & Civil War in Bosnia: Events, Attention and Knowledge”: “American Public Opinion & Civil War in Bosnia: Events, Attention and Knowledge” Data for this presentation based on paper by S.E. Bennett,R.S. Flickinger, S.L. Rhine Paper presented at 1996 ISPP Conference Public Opinion data 1992-1996 from TIMES-MIRROR Center for People &PressResearch Focus: Research Focus X= time (1992-96) Y= changes in US publics’ attitudes towards: Y1 = US involvement in Bosnia Y2= US ‘s engagement in Post-Cold War world Y3= foreign policy problemsIntroduction: Introduction Will US public turn away from outside world in post-Cold War era? Role of public opinion in new era? policy by public opinion polls vs little impact-for policySurvey of Literature:: Survey of Literature: Scholars disagree regarding both concerns (Holsti 1992; Yankleovich and Destler 1994) Several studies suggest role of p.o. more important than formerly dominant “realist” interpretations such as Lippman (1955) and Cohen (1973) suggests (Bennett and Paletz 1994; Deese, 1994) Conceptualization (putting knowns with unknowns): Conceptualization (putting knowns with unknowns) recent data -public ambivalence about foreign policy in post-Cold War era -2/3rds of public favored an active world role for US -1994, 1990,1986 (Reilly,1995) News - US relations with other - constant BUT declines in perceptions of foreign policy problems importance% Agree foreign policy & defense most important problems facing US: % Agree foreign policy & defense most important problems facing US 1980 32.1% 1984 33.2% 1988 9.7% 1992 3.1% NES Poll dataDifferent interpretations- Use Bosnia case to assess significance: Different interpretations- Use Bosnia case to assess significance Lots of media coverage-BOSNIA Did public learn? How attentive were Americans over time? relative impact back-ground factors, events on ground, policies acts US,others?Assess relative importance 3 factors:: Assess relative importance 3 factors: 1) events “on the ground” in other countries 2) leadership by national policy elites (President) 3) media coverage of #1 & #2 Control for “Individual differences” i.e. mental models, prior knowledge location in social structure Model - How people process & retain political information: Model - How people process & retain political information Prior cognitions (Converse,1975) Location in social system Interest in politics “Say, who is this chick Bosnia? SCHEMA (Shank & Abelson1977) Education,work,where live “many Americans ‘tune out’ political informationTrends in Americans’ attention to news stories-Bosnia 1992-6: Trends in Americans’ attention to news stories-Bosnia 1992-6 see Table 1 How many paying close attention? (very) When peaked? Why? (deployment vs word shift) What events associated -”ebb & flow”??? Describe overall pattern Why?Trends in Americans’ attention to BOSNIA new stories : Trends in Americans’ attention to BOSNIA new stories Past research finds public pays more attention to STORIES: war -US troops or stories evoke pride & patriotism accidents natural disastersTrends among “attentive public”- Table 2: Trends among “attentive public”- Table 2 The “ATTENTIVE Public” foreign policy = better educated better-off ($50,000+) middle-aged men Does this trend hold for BOSNIA? Why college experience - a strong correlate???: Why college experience - a strong correlate??? “knowledge-gap” thesis - Some people learn more quickly about a new issue because well-educated better prepared at outset cognitive skills, acquisition previous information, social location....> understand significance of “new issues”Inferred hypothesis:: Inferred hypothesis: H1: As crisis continues, the “attentiveness gap” between college schooled and others will narrow ...especially if US military forces involvedBUT associations are weak: BUT associations are weak What OTHER Factors are at work?Media coverage: Media coverage thesis - media coverage influences interest in issues i.e., Bosnia see Figure 1 Is there a pattern? What happened Summer,Fall 1995???Coverage & Interest coincide with greater war activity & plans to send US. troops: Coverage & Interest coincide with greater war activity & plans to send US. troops June 1995 Clinton speeches “send troops” Capt. O’Grady shot down Serb overran “safe areas”, NATO bombings Nov 1995 Dayton Accord Jan. 1996 82% public very/fairly interested in Bosnia (see Figure 2)BUT How informed were Americans about Bosnia?: BUT How informed were Americans about Bosnia? see TABLE 3 Initially, how informed? Over time? Had things changed by Summer, 1995? why? more attention...>more knowledge of conflictWho knows? Knowledge about Bosnia (Table 4): Who knows? Knowledge about Bosnia (Table 4) SIGNIFICANT trends related to??: Education level Demographics (gender) SES (social-economic status)What is strongest relationship?: What is strongest relationship? Which demographic variable is most highly correlated with knowledge? see Table 4A multi-variate statistical model of individual effects - Table 5: A multi-variate statistical model of individual effects - Table 5 Y = Knowledge Index 1.which ethic group conquered most?; 2. why fighting? 3. what does ethnic cleansing mean? 4.heard about NATO’s threat to use military force against Serbs?A OLS Regression Model of individual effects (Table 5): A OLS Regression Model of individual effects (Table 5) Independent Variables (Xs): X1 = AGE X2 = GENDER X3 = RACE X4 = EDUCATION X5 = Family Income X6=Attention to domestic media stories X7=Follow Bosnia X8-X11 = Follow other foreign policy issues How good a “fit”?: How good a “fit”? Cognitive ability (education), location in social structure,attention to media generally, & Bosnia crisis shape Americans’ knowledge) TOTAL VARIANCE EXPLAINED by model? What ‘s missing from model?Overall Findings:: Overall Findings: Events, media coverage, public attention to coverage & knowledge of conflict all related Xs Attentiveness gap narrowed over time AND greater US military involvement Knowledge levels increased over time, greatest for most educated (attentive public)Future research???: Future research??? Will Bosnia cease to be important to the American public after US troops leave? Policy implications? Is public opinion a resource or constraint on formulation of American foreign policy? Related research questions?