ICIS2006presentation 120606 Sharda

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Ramesh Sharda and Dursun Delen Institute for Research in Information Systems Department of Management Science and Information Systems William S. Spears School of Business Oklahoma State University (Assistance from Michael Henry on recent data collection and trials; Ben Johnson and Xin Cao on MFG implementation) Forecasting Box Office Success of Movies: An Update and a DSS Perspective

Forecasting Box-Office Receipts: A Tough Problem!: 

Forecasting Box-Office Receipts: A Tough Problem! “… No one can tell you how a movie is going to do in the marketplace… not until the film opens in darkened theatre and sparks fly up between the screen and the audience” Mr. Jack Valenti President and CEO of the Motion Picture Association of America


Introduction Pirates of the Caribbean “When production for the film was first announced, movie fans and critics were skeptical of its chances of success” – www.wikipedia.com 3rd highest grossing movie in 2003 22nd highest grossing movie of all time Sequel was the 6th highest grossing movie of all time -www.the-movie-times.com

Our Approach – Movie Forecast Guru: 

Our Approach – Movie Forecast Guru DATA –Movies released between 1998-2005 Movie Decision Parameters: Intensity of competition rating MPAA Rating Star power Genre Technical Effects Sequel ? Estimated screens at opening … Output: Box office gross receipts (flop  blockbuster)

Method: Neural Networks and others: 

Method: Neural Networks and others Output Box office receipts: 9 categories Flop (category 1) Blockbuster (category 9) Prediction Results Bingo 1-Away

Updates of Previous Results: 

Updates of Previous Results Original data from 1998 to 2002 834 Movies Tested

New Experiments: 

New Experiments Method Collect Data from 2003 to 2005 Run test on data from 2003 to 2005 Compare with previous results from 1998 to 2002

Experiment One: 

Experiment One Data Collect and test 475 movies Independent variables: www.imdb.com Dependent variables: www.the-movie-times.com

Experiment One: 

Experiment One *1998 to 2002 results from Sharda and Delen

Experiment Two: 

Experiment Two Method Combine data from 1998 to 2005 Test data from 1998 to 2005 Compare with previous tests results

Experiment Two: 

Experiment Two Data Test included 1,323 movies 1998 to 2002 included 848 movies 2003 to 2005 included 475 movies

Experiment Two: 

Experiment Two *current 1998 to 2002 results

What about predictions in 2006?: 

What about predictions in 2006?

Results So far…: 

Results So far… The more data available to train and test model, the higher the prediction rate. Re-evaluating the data to ensure consistency and accuracy improved the prediction rate. Neural networks can handle complex problems in forecasting in difficult business situations.

Web-Based DSS: 

Web-Based DSS Information fusion (multiple method forecasting) Use of models not owned by the developer Sensitivity Analysis

Web-Based DSS: 

Web-Based DSS Collaboration among stakeholders Platform independence Forecasting models change frequently Versioning Web services a good method for updates Web-based DSS!

DSS: Movie Forecast Guru: 

DSS: Movie Forecast Guru Forecast Methods: Neural Networks Decision Tree (CART & C5) Logistic Regression Discriminant Analysis Information Fusion .Net server


Conceptual Software Architecture

User Interaction with MFG: 

User Interaction with MFG

Preliminary Assessment: 

Preliminary Assessment


Conclusions Interesting problem for DSS Implementation Marketing challenge remains! Many other similar problems in forecasting Web-DSS framework

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