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Slide1: 

Security Challenges – A Canadian Perspective Cam Ross Major-General (retired)

Slide2: 

past current changing world future Security Challenges

Slide4: 

Cold War Jan-80 Jan-81 Jan-82 Jan-83 Jan-84 Jan-85 Jan-86 Jan-87 Jan-88 Jan-89 Jan-90 Jan-91 Jan-92 Jan-93 Jan-94 Jan-95 Jan-96 Jan-97 Jan-98 Jan-99 Jan-00 Jan-01 Jan-02 Year Supply versus demand 3 60000 70000 80000 90000 50000 85000 65000 55000 75000 SIZE OF CF PERSONS DEPLOYED

Slide5: 

Soft power

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Cold War Post-Cold War Jan-80 Jan-81 Jan-82 Jan-83 Jan-84 Jan-85 Jan-86 Jan-87 Jan-88 Jan-89 Jan-90 Jan-91 Jan-92 Jan-93 Jan-94 Jan-95 Jan-96 Jan-97 Jan-98 Jan-99 Jan-00 Jan-01 Jan-02 Year Supply versus demand 3 60000 70000 80000 90000 50000 85000 65000 55000 75000 SIZE OF CF PERSONS DEPLOYED

Slide7: 

1 The impact of 9/11

Slide11: 

Number of deaths on peacekeeping missions Over the last 53 years, Canada has lost more peacekeepers on UN and NATO operations than any other country

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Number of deaths on peacekeeping missions Over the last 53 years, Canada has lost more peacekeepers on UN and NATO operations than any other country Canadians killed = 122

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past current changing world future Security Challenges 

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Defence roles Canada 2.Continent 3.World

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MISSIONS - 14 OP SNOWGOOSE UNFICYP - Cyprus 1 Pers OP APOLLO OEF - Gulf Region 259 Pers OP ATHENA OEF - Afghanistan 7 Pers OP CROCODILE MONUC - DR Congo 7 Pers OP SCULPTURE IMATT - Sierra Leone 7 Pers OP REPTILE UNAMSIL - Sierra Leone 5 Pers OP JADE UNTSO - Middle East 8 Pers OP FOUNDATION Liaison tm - Tampa 7 Pers OP ACCIUS UNAMA - Afghanistan 1 Pers OP PALLADIUM OP DANACA UNDOF - Golan 193 Pers OP CALUMET MFO - Sinai, Egypt 30 Pers OP SOLITUDE UN SRSG - West Africa 1 Pers PERS - 3706 ISAF - Afghanistan 1641 Pers OP ATHENA ISAF - LO Europe 3 Pers OP ATHENA OP ATHENA TSE - Camp Mirage/ LO 305 Pers SFOR - Bosnia 1,227 Pers OP LIANE Monrovia, Liberia 4 Pers CF Deployments – 15 Oct 2003

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So what? How does this compare with other countries CF Deployments – 15 Oct 2003

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UN Peacekeeping Australia Japan Source: United Nations as of 31 Aug 03

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A common question You have $13 Billion and 61,000 troops, why can’t you … ?

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Poor reporting doesn’t help CTV News 22 Oct: “Currently, there are 20,000 (Canadian) soldiers participating in international missions, …

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Combatant Forces 25,300 Infrastructure Headquarters Training Systems Secondment People total = 61,500 trained = 54,000

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Army 14,000 Air Force 6,600 Navy 4,000 Central Forces 700 Combatant Forces = 25,300

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Saddledome ~ 17,000 Canadian Army field force = about 14,000

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# of ‘soldiers’ per General Officer 878

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Impact of operations Operations 6 months Reconstitution 6 months Training 6 months shift system ratio - 1:6 which means – 6 months overseas every 3 years to sustain 3,000 requires 18,000

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Today = 1K LOB Indiv Tasks Op Waivers Available for Ops

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= 1K Indiv Tasks Op Waivers Available for Ops LOB Indiv Tasks Op Waivers Available for Ops LOB Sep 2004+

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Operational tempo

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past current changing world future Security Challenges  

Changing world: 

Transnational Actors Changing world

Changing world: 

Geopolitical Demographics Social attitudes Technology Changing world

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Geopolitical WMD globalization political agendas asymmetrical threats  Changing world

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9/11 lessons learned threat is real decision making process Canada/USA

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Canada/USA NORAD NORTHCOM Smart Border Planning Group

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container ship detonates nuclear devices at major ports biological/chemical attack from offshore trawlers terrorism on U.S. and Cdn bridges, locks and tunnels power grids and pipelines blown-up on CANUS border terrorists explode a dirty bomb in Windsor/Detroit direct attacks on U.S. Congress and Canadian Parliament homeless in multiple cities infected with smallpox major earthquake on US/Canadian West Coast Planning Group Scenarios

Slide39: 

Canada/USA NORAD NORTHCOM Smart Border Planning Group Ballistic Missile Defence “The Americans aren’t debating missile defence, they’re moving ahead. So whatever debate we have here is irrelevant.” David Rudd, Toronto Star 23 Oct

Slide40: 

Geopolitical Demographics ageing population diversity retiring Baby Boom projected shortfalls in skilled labour  Changing world

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Canada – its changing face Immigration Source countries 1991-2000 China & Hong Kong 17 % India 9 % Philippines 7 % Sri Lanka 3 % Pakistan 3 % Taiwan 3 % United States 3 % Iran 3 % Poland 2 % Asian:42%

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Canada – its changing face Immigration Source countries 1991-2000 Global cities Foreign-born as a percentage of metropolitan population 2000-2001 China & Hong Kong 17 % India 9 % Philippines 7 % Sri Lanka 3 % Pakistan 3 % Taiwan 3 % United States 3 % Iran 3 % Poland 2 % Toronto 44 % Miami 40 % Montreal 18 % New York City 24 % Los Angeles 31 % Sydney 31 % Vancouver 38 %

US-its changing face: 

US-its changing face Immigration slowing down from 2.8 M (1994) to 800,000 (1997) Foreign born 10% Ethnic representation Hispanic/Latino from 22M (1990) to 35M (2000) Christian Source: Bureau of Citizenship and Immigration/2002 Triennial Report

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Geopolitical Demographics Social attitudes CF educated, scrutinized, dynamic public priorities health education infrastructure economy  Changing world

American Economic Strength: 

American Economic Strength The GDP of US States Compared to Countries DFAIT info

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Canada/US 38 States have Canada as their single largest export market Canada absorbs ¼ of all US exports; more than Japan, Germany, UK, Italy, & China combined 1/3 of all energy measured in BTU imported to US comes from Canada each day, $2 billion and 300,000 people cross the border

Slide47: 

Canada Trade

Slide48: 

USA “Security trumps trade”

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Geopolitical Demographics Social attitudes Technology pace of change wireless space  Changing world

Slide50: 

China Weapons in space ?

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So what? Canada/USA similar/different skirmishes, battles, wars

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past current changing world future Security Challenges   

Slide53: 

Strategic Outlook what is known/planned

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Strategic Outlook what is on the radar screen

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Strategic Outlook Afghanistan Iraq Bosnia Middle East Africa

Slide56: 

with NATO to summer 04 ~ 2,000 summer 04+ – not 2000, but not zero Afghanistan

Slide57: 

OP ATHENA (ISAF) Camp Julien Camp Warehouse KMNB ISAF HQ Kabul Intl Airport Bagram Airport

Slide58: 

ISAF

Political Schedule: 

Political Schedule 2001 2003 2003 Bonn Agreement 2002 2004 Emergency Loya Jirga Constitutional Loya Jirga Transitional Authority Interim Free and equal elections Government

Slide60: 

Iraq ? X

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Bosnia Sep 03 - Cdn Brigade Commander 1 yr Apr 04 - last Cdn battalion out Oct 04 – recce squadron out 1200 to ~500 to ~40 (steady)

Slide62: 

Middle East UNDOF (Golan Heights) 194 pers drawdown to ~ 40 by summer 04 UNTSO (Jerusalem HQ) 8 pers continue MFO (Sinai) 29 pers; Cdn Comd until 04 continue

Slide63: 

Africa Sierra Leone UNAMSIL - 5 pers IMATT – 7 pers DR Congo MONUC - 8 pers CARAVAN - 51 pers West Africa – 1 pers

Slide64: 

Strategic Outlook what is known/planned

Slide65: 

Strategic Outlook what is on the radar screen

Slide66: 

SHIRBRIG 03 – Cdn Presidency 04/05 – Cdn Force Commander Battalion, 8 x helicopters United Nations

Slide67: 

SHIRBRIG 03 – Cdn Presidency 04/05 – Cdn Force Commander Battalion, 8 x helicopters Sudan, Liberia ? G8 African initiative United Nations

Slide68: 

NATO Response Force few NATO troops rapidly deployable little ‘plug & play” capability 6,000 by Oct 06 NATO implications for Canada? battalion? staff? readiness = $$$$

Slide69: 

from 100 unarmed observers to a robust MNF 20,000+ 5 x brigades Middle East ‘Road Map’

Slide70: 

from 100 unarmed observers to a robust MNF 20,000+ 5 x brigades Middle East ‘Road Map’

Slide71: 

sustainability issues people budget relevance Defence Policy – Future Challenges

Slide72: 

NATO defence expenditures as % of GDP SOURCE: NATO PRESS RELEASE M-DPC-2(1999)152

Slide73: 

Life Cycle Remaining System Operationally Effective 50% 75% 25% 0% 100% Marginal Fully Functional Functional Limited World Standard System “Rust-Out” 737-700 Vanguard

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Submarine Victoria CPF Halifax Class Life Cycle Remaining 50% 75% 25% 0% 100% Marginal Fully Functional Functional Limited World Standard TCCCS Griffon LAV 3 APC TOW/ERYX - Anti-Armour Coyote DDH 280 Iroquois Class Airbus Strategic Airlift M109 SP Artillery Leopard MBT AOR Protecteur Class M113 APC C130 Hercules CF-18 Fighter CP-140 Aurora CH124 Sea King Air Force Army Navy System “Rust-Out” CH-113 Labrador ADATS Air Defence HLVW Trucks LSVW Trucks MLVW Trucks ILTIS Jeep Small Arms Weapons MCDV Kingston Class WLAV LE System Operationally Effective

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Submarine Victoria CPF Halifax Class Life Cycle Remaining 50% 75% 25% 0% 100% Marginal Fully Functional Functional Limited World Standard TCCCS Griffon LAV 3 APC TOW/ERYX - Anti-Armour Coyote DDH 280 Iroquois Class Airbus Strategic Airlift M109 SP Artillery Leopard MBT AOR Protecteur Class M113 APC C130 Hercules CF-18 Fighter CP-140 Aurora CH124 Sea King Air Force Army Navy System “Rust-Out” CH-113 Labrador ADATS Air Defence HLVW Trucks LSVW Trucks MLVW Trucks ILTIS Jeep Small Arms Weapons MCDV Kingston Class WLAV LE System Operationally Effective

‘Martin plans to be fiscal miser’: 

‘Martin plans to be fiscal miser’ federal government department budget cuts “…always keep… a firm grip on spending.“ debt-to-GDP ratio 71 % in 1997 40 % today 25 % target Globe and Mail Sun 19 Oct 03

Slide77: 

X relevance

Slide78: 

relevance

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relevance 32 14 6

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past current changing world future Security Challenges    

Slide84: 

‘While Canada Slept: How We Lost Our Place in the World’ Andrew Cohen

Slide85: 

The End Dr. Bercuson on HMCS Calgary?

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