Lesson_Ten

Lesson 10 : 

Lesson 10 Rival Causes

What are Rival Causes? : 

A plausible alternative explanation that can explain why a certain outcome occurred. Searching for rival causes will always be appropriate when a communicator presents you with evidence and offers a cause to explain that evidence. Communicators can indicate causal thinking to you in several different ways. Next Slide -> What are Rival Causes?

What are Rival Causes? : 

X has the effect of… X leads to… X influences… X is linked to… X deters… X increases the likelihood… X determines… X is associated with… What are Rival Causes?

What are Rival Causes? : 

When you realize a rival cause is possible you need to ask a series of critical questions such as… Can I think of any other way to interpret the evidence? What else might have cause this act or findings? If I looked at this from another person’s perspective, what might I see as important causes? If this interpretation is wrong, what other interpretations might make better sense? What are Rival Causes?

What are Rival Causes? : 

“A researcher reported that eating celery helps curb aggression. 151 women were surveyed, and 95% who reported eating celery on a regular basis also reported low levels of aggression, or overall irritability. Of the portion of women who do not eat celery on a regular basis, 53% reported frequent feelings of irritability, agitation, and aggression.” What do you think this researcher’s hypothesis or conclusion might be? What evidence does the communicator provide to support his/her hypothesis? Any possible rival causes? What are Rival Causes?

What are Rival Causes? : 

“Since 1993, the levels of serious violent crime in the United States have decreased steadily. It is obvious that the heavy focus we place on law enforcement is no longer necessary. People are becoming civic minded and are choosing to no longer pursue a life of crime. Money spent on law enforcement can now better be spent elsewhere.” What do you think this researcher’s hypothesis or conclusion might be? What evidence does the communicator provide to support his/her hypothesis? Any possible rival causes? What are Rival Causes?

What are Rival Causes? : 

What can we learn from these examples? Many kinds of events are open to explanation by rival causes. Experts can examine the same evidence and “discover” different causes to explain it. Most communicators will provide only the information that favors their conclusion. Generating rival causes is a creative process; usually rival causes are not obvious. The certainty of a particular causal claim is directly related to the number of plausible rival causes. What are Rival Causes?

The Cause vs. a Cause : 

A common error: Looking for a simple, single cause of an event. Reality: Events are usually the result of a combination of many contributory causes. A contributory cause is a cause that helps to create a total set of conditions necessary for the event to occur. Most events have multiple contributory causes. The best causal explanation is the one that combines a considerable number of causes that only together are sufficient to bring about the event. The Cause vs. a Cause

The Cause vs. a Cause : 

When searching for rival causes: Remember that any single cause that we might identify is much more likely to be a contributory cause than the cause. When we fail to remember this we commit the fallacy of causal oversimplification. We rely on causal factors that are insufficient to cause the event. We overemphasize the role of one or more factors. The Cause vs. a Cause

The Cause vs. a Cause : 

Open your textbooks to page 128 Paragraph on playing violent video games. What are some rival causes? The Cause vs. a Cause

Rival Causes for Differences between Groups : 

Research groups almost always differ in more than one important way. Group differences often are consistent with multiple causes. Ask, “Are there rival causes that might also explain the differences in the groups?” Rival Causes for Differences between Groups

Rival Causes for Differences between Groups : 

“In a recent research study, students who prepare for a standardized test by taking a special course designed to teach students how to take the test have scored higher than students who prepare for the same standardized test by reviewing several books about the test.” What two groups are present? What rival causes are present? Rival Causes for Differences between Groups

Confusions : 

Common Mistakes: The confusion of cause and effect. Confusing the cause with the effect of an event or when people fail to recognize that the two events may be influencing each other.  The neglect of a common cause. Failing to recognize that two events might be related because of the effects of a common third factor. Confusions

Confusions : 

People tend to think that events that are go together cause one another. We conclude that because characteristic X is associated with characteristic Y, that X therefore causes Y. Usually such thinking is wrong. Usually multiple hypotheses can explain why X and Y go together. Confusions

Confusions : 

For example… “Classes with larger number of students enrolled tend to experience high rates of students’ skipping class.” Or “More red cars than any other color are pulled over for speeding; therefore, the color of the car affects how fast it goes.” Confusions

Confusions : 

Turn to page 130 in your textbook. Work through the example about smoking. Turn to page 131 in your textbook. Work through the example about ice cream. Confusions

Post hoc Fallacy : 

Assumes a particular event is caused by another event simply because one follows another in time. Look at the example on page 132. Just because one event follows another in time does not by itself prove causation; it may be only a coincidence. When we see such reasoning, we should ask, “Are there rival causes that could account for the event? Is there any good evidence other than the fact that one event followed the other event in time? Post hoc Fallacy

Evaluating Rival Causes : 

How do we know when a particular rival cause is valid or not? When comparing rival causes, we would be wise to apply the following criteria: Their logical soundness; Their consistency with other knowledge that we have; and Their previous success in explaining or predicting events. Evaluating Rival Causes