boston university talk 021110

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MIT Energy Initiative MIT e i Melanie Kenderdine Executive Director, MITEI Presidential Lecture Boston University February 10, 2010 1 Technology Resources Meeting the Climate Challenge: Are We Up to the Job? Politics Geography

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MIT Energy Initiative MIT e i 2 Climate Change Overview

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MIT Energy Initiative MIT Energy Initiative MIT e i EIA forecasts a 30% global increase in CO2 emissions in next two decades 60% of the CO2 emissions in 2010 will be from 6 countries: the US, Japan, Russia, India, Germany and China 49% of this increase will be from China alone 68% of this increase will be from China, India, the US, and the Middle East Global CO2 Emissions, 2010/2030 (million metric tons ) EIA 2009 IAEO 3

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MIT Energy Initiative MIT Energy Initiative MIT e i Late Summer Arctic Sea Ice Decline Sea level rise 4 Impacts of Anthropogenic Climate Change

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MIT Energy Initiative MIT Energy Initiative MIT e i % world population % world GDP % world C02 emissions % cumulative emissions Some Critical Indicators

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MIT Energy Initiative MIT Energy Initiative MIT e i BAU emissions in 2050: about 80 B tonnes CO2 90% reduction: 8 B tonnes Population, 2050: 9 B Per capita CO2 budget: Roughly one tonne per person Magnitude of CO2 Reductions Required 6

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MIT Energy Initiative MIT Energy Initiative MIT e i Challenge: Living Well on a One Tonne Per Year 7

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MIT Energy Initiative MIT e i 8 Lowering the Cost of Low Carbon Technologies

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Uprising Against the Ethanol Mandate MIT Energy Initiative 9 MIT e i Lowering the Cost of the Alternatives: Levelized Electricity Costs (cents/kwh) Baseload Intermittents 9-15 5-9 7-10 4-7 6-13 10 8-10 8-20 14-30 4-10 5-18 National Academy, America’s Energy Future, 2009

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MIT Energy Initiative MIT Energy Initiative MIT e i CO2 Emissions from Coal, 2010 43% of global CO2 emissions in 2010 will be from coal China , the US and India will account for 68% of global coal CO2 emissions in 2010 China will be the source of 45% of global CO2 emissions from coal in 2010 10 EIA 2009 IAEO

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MIT Energy Initiative MIT e i 11 In the US, This is Where the “Money” Is!

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MIT Energy Initiative v MIT e i 12 Relative efficiency losses: 24%/26% US coal fleet: 332 GW Average age of US coal plants: 35 years Carbon avoidance costs to retrofit subcritical/ supercritical coal plant: $74/$52 per ton Coal plant capacity capable of CCS: Well below 50% Theoretical capacity for CCS from existing coal plants: 55% Plants with desulfurization scrubbers: 50% Plants with six acres of unused space, sequestration off-take capacity and double the available water: Unknown CCS for US Coal Plants Retrofitting Coal Plants for CO2 Emissions Reductions, MITEI, 2009

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MIT Energy Initiative MIT e i 13 Early Action is Essential

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MIT Energy Initiative MIT Energy Initiative MIT e i Without Policy With Policy Analysis of Climate Policy Targets Under Uncertainty, Prinn, et al 2009 14 It’s later – and more serious -- than we think

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MIT Energy Initiative MIT e i CHP as % of Total National Power Production IEA attributes 15% of all European “policy-directed” GHG emissions reductions from 1990-2005 to CHP IEA estimates that by 2030, 10% of all GHG emissions reductions from new power generation could be achieved through CHP

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MIT Energy Initiative MIT Energy Initiative 11 8 1 6 MIT e i The Nuclear Power Option 44 plants under construction China (11), Russia (8), India (6), 5 2 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 Japan (2), Argentina (1), Finland (1) France (1), Korea (5), Bulgaria (2), Taiwan(2), Ukraine (2), Iran (1), Pakistan (1), United States (1). 16 Nuclear Fuel Study Update, MIT, 2009

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MIT Energy Initiative CO2 Impacts: Substitution of Natural Gas for Coal-fired Power Generation 25 50 75 100 125 150 100 200 300 400 500 20 40 60 80 100 0 0 Coal power generation displaced by gas (GW capacity) Additional volumes of gas consumed (bcm/year) CO2 reduction (million tonnes per year) MIT e i Source: IPIECA Report, Workshop Summary, Natural Gas as a Climate Change Solution, 09/2006 An incremental 5 tcf of gas… … and reduce US CO2 emissions by 9% in 2020 Obama Administration/Waxman-Markey CO2 emissions reduction target for 2020: 17% off 2005 baseline Over 50% of this target could be met by re-powering 30% of our existing coal capacity with natural gas 17 … could repower roughly 30% of US coal-fired power capacity…

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MIT Energy Initiative MIT e i 18 13 * * * * * * * 7 * * * * * * * 10 * * * 3 * * * 13 * * * * * * 13 * * * * * * * * * * * * * 63 Level of growth in a decade: +1,846% Growth in US Shale Gas Wells

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MIT Energy Initiative MIT e i 19 Cautionary Tales

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Uprising Against the Ethanol Mandate MIT Energy Initiative 20 Beware the “Technology Du Jour” Syndrome Obama, DOE slash hydrogen fuel cell funding in new budget GreenAuto Blog, May 8th 2009 MIT e i Bush Touts Benefits of Hydrogen Fuel CNN.com, February , 2003 Report Questions Bush Plan For Hydrogen-Fueled Cars New York Times, February 6, 2004 Schwarzenegger Proposes 'Hydrogen Highways' Plan KCRA, April 20, 2004 $100 Million Fuels U.S. Progress Along Hydrogen Highway Environmental News Service, October 20, 2004 Gov. Bush breaks ground on Florida's 'hydrogen highway’ Search News, 2/18/2005 California’s Hydrogen Highway Teeters Toward Collapse Wired, January 10, 2008 Has Calif.'s hydrogen highway gone bust? Greenwire, March 10, 2009

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Uprising Against the Ethanol Mandate Senate Committee Ups Ethanol Mandate to 8 Billion Gallons by 2012 AAHSTO Journal, June 1, 2005 MIT Energy Initiative 21 Beware the Unintended Consequences of Mandates Gov. Schwarzenegger Praises Federal Grant to Help in Building 15 Ethanol Fueling Stations in California Governor’s Press Release, Oct 31, 2006 Ethanol industry balks at legislative mandate to boost production Renewable Fuels Assn., Dec 08, 2009 US Congress gives final OK to huge ethanol boost ICIS News, December 18, 2007 Ethanol's popularity wanes amid rising food prices USA Today 5.22.08 U.S. Food Industry Calls for Ethanol Mandate Waiver Reuters, June 6, 2008 Uprising Against the Ethanol Mandate New York Times, July 23, 2008 MIT e i

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Uprising Against the Ethanol Mandate MIT Energy Initiative 22 Beware of Poorly Designed Programs DOE Officially Launches FutureGen Green Car Congress, December 6, 2005 FutureGen picks Illinois for coal project Reuters, Dec 18, 2007 Bush drops mismanaged ‘NeverGen’ clean coal project Grist, January 31, 2008 Bush May Have Set Back Clean Coal Efforts by 10 Years, Report Says Washington Post, March 12, 2009 DOE Revives FutureGen, Reversing Bush-Era Decision NYT, June 12, 2009 Futuregen Clean Coal Plant Loses 2 Financial Backers Huffington Post, June 25 , 2009 MIT e i

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Uprising Against the Ethanol Mandate MIT Energy Initiative 23 Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan Declares Impending Natural Gas Crisis Fox News, June 23, 2003 ExxonMobil and Qatar Petroleum sign agreement for LNG supply Pipeline & Gas Journal, November 1, 2003 “I strongly support developing new LNG capacity in the United States.” President Bush, July, 2004 election interview Exxon to Buy XTO for $31 Billion in Bet on U.S. Gas Bloomberg, December 14, 2009 Beware of the “Herd Mentality” MIT e i Exxon says N. America gas production has peaked Reuters, June 21, 2005 Huge natural gas field 'discovered' in Texas Major energy firms seeing benefit in developing domestic sources WorldNetDaily, June 21, 2005 Up, Up and Away: Shale Gas Production Takes Off Oil and Gas Investor, June 15 2008 U.S. Shale Gas Plays Affecting Global LNG Market WSJ, November 3, 2009

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MIT Energy Initiative MIT e i 24 Beware the Long-term Impacts of Policy Decisions on Energy Infrastructure/Mix Use of Petroleum/Natural Gas in Power Generation Hotly Debated Post-OPEC Oil Embargo Debate has Chilling Effect on New Gas Plant Construction US Congress, 1975-1977 Congress Outlaws Natural Gas for Power Generation Spurs Construction of Coal-Fired Power Plants Washington DC, 1978 Congress Repeals Fuel Use Act, Paving Way for New Gas Generation Washington, DC, 1987 Embargo + Fuel Use Act + TMI = New Market Share for Coal Plants Kenderdine Market Analysis, 2010 De-regulation of Natural Gas, Wave of New Technologies Spurs US Gas Production 1978-1990 Number & Type of Fossil Fuel Power Units Built Since 1987 In 2007, roughly 27% of all CO2 emissions from the power sector came from coal plants built between 1975 and 1987.

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MIT Energy Initiative MIT e i 25 Are We Up to the Challenge?

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Uprising Against the Ethanol Mandate MIT Energy Initiative 26 Current DOE Organization of Energy Programs Renewables/ Efficiency Nuclear Energy Electric Reliability Office of Science Fossil Energy (Coal, gas, oil) Undersecretary, Energy/Environment Undersecretary, Science Advanced Research Projects Agency - E Secretary, US DOE MIT e i 26

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MIT Energy Initiative DOE Budget Summary, FY2011 Renewables: $876 M Biomass 25% Solar 34% Fuel Cells 16% Wind 14% Geothermal 6% Water 4% Fossil Fuels: $404 M Coal 100% Nuclear: $364 M Electricity: $144 M Efficiency: $682 M Vehicles 48% Industry 15% Buildings 37% ARPA-E: $300 M DOE Energy R&D: FY 11 Request MIT e i Office of Science: $4.2 B Basic Energy Sciences: 44% Biological/Env. Rsrch: 15% Fusion: 9% High Energy Physics: 20% Nuclear Physics: 13%

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MIT Energy Initiative v MIT e i 28 NETL ORNL NREL Sandia Los Alamos LBNL Argonne INL PNNL The DOE Laboratory System Renewables 242 DOE Preliminary Lab Tables, 2010

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Energy Frontiers Research Centers Energy Frontiers Research Centers Energy Frontiers Research Centers MIT Energy Initiative MIT e i 29 University National lab Other EFRC Awardees Academic institutions: 67% National labs: 26% Other: 6% DOE Press Release

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MIT Energy Initiative MIT e i 30 University Technology Company Private Laboratory National Laboratory ARPA E Lead Awardees Small businesses: 43% Educational institutions: 35% Large businesses: 19% ARPA-E Lead Awardees DOE Press Release

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MIT Energy Initiative MIT e i New structures for $1.6 billion in energy research over the next five years The Changing DOE Innovation Ecosystem

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Uprising Against the Ethanol Mandate MIT Energy Initiative 32 Current DOE Organization of Energy Programs Renewables/ Efficiency Nuclear Energy Electric Reliability Office of Science Fossil Energy (Coal, gas, oil) Undersecretary, Energy/Environment Undersecretary, Science Advanced Research Projects Agency - E Secretary, US DOE MIT e i 32 Relationship of electricity to fuel sources? Is there an organizational home to migrate basic science discoveries to technology solutions? Why is efficiency in the renewables office? Is there any significant relationship between vehicle, building, industrial efficiency technologies? Where does transportation fit? What about transportation fuels? Where would you put an energy and water program? Which office is responsible for distributed generation? If a fuel meets environmental specifications do we care which fuel we use? Can we develop a comprehensive research/policy portfolio when offices are organized around fuels?

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Uprising Against the Ethanol Mandate MIT Energy Initiative 33 A Different Structure: A Portfolio Approach Office of Science Undersecretary, Science & Energy Advanced Research Projects Agency - E Secretary, US DOE MIT e i Office of Transportation Office of Buildings Office of Industrial Energy End use model Functional model Office of Power Office of Heat Office of Fuel Efficiency, Carbon Mgmt., Water Embedded in Each

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