Forecasting Internet

Slide 1: 

Forecasting the growth of the Internet Michael Minges, Telecommunication Development Bureau (BDT), International Telecommunication Union (ITU) Market Forecasting in the Telecoms Industry, 25-27 May 1998, Hongkong

Why is Internet forecasting important? : 

Why is Internet forecasting important? Global phenomenon Growing market Revenue potential Compound Annual Growth Rate 1990-97 Source: ITU. “…the most promising new economic opportunity in decades.” —Bill Clinton

What Internet numbers are important? : 

What Internet numbers are important? Network size Traffic Market value

Network size : 

Network size Host computers Physical connections Subscribers Paying customers Users People accessing 267’400 Subscribers 500’000 Users Source: TAS, Nielsen, Network Wizards. 8.6% Percent of population 16.1%

Internet hosts : 

Internet hosts “Tight” definition (IP address) “Scientific” method Regular surveys: Network WizardsTwice a year counts of all hosts RIPEMonthly counts of European hosts Marks minimum size of Internet Internet hosts, world Source: ITU adapted from Network Wizards. 5.07 29.7m 0.06 0.313m

Hosts: How reliable? : 

Hosts: How reliable? Network Wizards January 1998 methodology change Differences between Network Wizards and RIPE Where do hosts actually reside (e.g., .COM)? Internet hosts million Source: Network Wizards. 16’322 32’272 Trend Actual 1-95 7-97 1/98

Internet hosts: High growth over? : 

Internet hosts: High growth over? Internet Hosts World, millions Internet Hosts Asia-Pacific, millions Source: Network Wizards.

Internet hosts: macro forecast : 

Internet hosts: macro forecast Peak of highest growth Growth levels off Source: Dr. Mario Hilgemeier http://tunix.is-bremen.de/~mhi/inetgrow.htm Internet hosts millions S-Curve Trend High projection S-Curve error limit Source: ITU.

Internet hosts: Micro variables : 

Internet hosts: Micro variables India China Indonesia Philippines Malaysia Thailand Japan Taiwan Korea Australia Hongkong Singapore Internet hosts per 1’000 inhabitants GDP per capita India China Indonesia Philippines Thailand Malaysia Australia Korea Singapore Taiwan Hongkong Japan Telephone lines per 100 people Internet hosts per 1’000 inhabitants Determinants of Internet penetration: Income Telephone lines PCs Age, education & language R2=0.45 R2=0.56

Internet users: How many online? : 

Internet users: How many online? 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 Jan-90 Jan-92 Jan-94 Jan-96 Jan-98 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 Users (m) Users per host Source: MIDS. Users per host Internet Users World, millions Source: NUA Surveys. Africa & Middle East 1% Canada & USA 59% Europe 20% Asia- Pacific 16% South America 6% Internet Users May 1998 119.5 million

Internet users:Guesswork? : 

Internet users:Guesswork? Loose definition makes estimating Internet users difficult Wide variation in estimates Previously multipliers, now surveys Internet Users Millions Source: ITU adapted from NUA Internet Surveys. “There is no way to determine how many users are on the net, besides making guesses and estimates.” —Network Wizards

Users forecast : 

Users forecast Will grow faster than hosts Limited by various variables (number of PCs, telephone lines, etc.) Internet users World, million Source: ITU, MIDS.

Internet commerce : 

Internet commerce Equipment & software for building the Internet Charges for accessing the Internet Advertising Sales of products and services over the Internet Web revenues US$ billion Source: ActivMedia.

Internet Telephony:Threat or opportunity? : 

Internet Telephony:Threat or opportunity? Price Quality Regulation Modes The Economist May 2nd 1998 “Future Public Networks will be IP based. Until recently we all have been putting Data over Voice Networks. Now we will be putting Voice over Data Networks.” —Jeff Pulver

Internet telephony:Different modes : 

Computer to computer Since 1994 Conversation between two similarly equipped computer users via Internet Computer to telephone Since 1996 Internet user interconnecting with Public Telephone Network via an intermediaryservice provider (e.g., call-back company) or a service provider’s Website Telephone to telephone Since 1997 Telephone carrier routes telephone or fax message via a data network (Internet, frame relay) rather than viathe Public Telephone Network Internet telephony:Different modes

IP Telephony traffic forecast : 

IP Telephony traffic forecast Source: Analysys (www.analysys.com).

Summary : 

Summary “It is not possible to determine the exact size of the Internet, where hosts are located, or how many users there are.” —Network Wizards

www.itu.int/ti : 

www.itu.int/ti