Wireless Goes Broadband

Wireless goes Broadband : 

Wireless goes Broadband Markets, Models, Interaction & Demand Michael Minges Senior Market AnalystTelecommunications Management Group (TMG), Inc. ITU Telecom Americas4 Oct 2005

Roadmap : 

2 04 Oct 2005 ITU TELECOM AMERICAS 2005 Roadmap “The convergence of mobile wireless and broadband technologies remains a hot topic in the industry… wireless broadband solutions that could provide both high-speed and high-mobility services are being actively developed …” Where is the future market for such services in the Americas region? How can traditional as well as non-traditional telecommunication companies develop viable business models in this rapidly changing technological environment? How will advanced mobile services, such as IMT-2000 (3G) and systems beyond, interact with wireless broadband systems such as WiMax and IEEE 802.20 (Mobile-fi) and newer iterations? How can we ensure that technological advances in broadband wireless are in line with user demand?

Slide 3: 

The use of Wi-Fi hotspots in hotels, cafés and airports has generated much interest in high-speed wireless connectivity. But while today's wireless LANs services, such as Wi-Fi, offer speed, they lack coverage. And while today's mobile services, such as GSM and CDMA offer mobility and coverage, they lack speed.

“But while today's wireless LANs services, such as Wi-Fi, offer speed, they lack coverage.” : 

4 04 Oct 2005 ITU TELECOM AMERICAS 2005 “But while today's wireless LANs services, such as Wi-Fi, offer speed, they lack coverage.” Wi-Fi in Latin America will not be same as developed regions Ideal for providing LAN connectivity in Internet cafes Wi-Fi coverage growing: “…TELMEX continues to expand wireless presence through technology known as Wireless Fidelity (WiFi). At year-end, in 53 major cities in Mexico there were 388 public sites known as hot spots where customers can access the Internet through wireless.” -TELMEX 2004 Annual Report Need a broadband access point for Wi-Fi Is coverage really THE problem? Is Wi-Fi really THE solution? Will WiMax solve this?

“And while today's mobile services, such as GSM and CDMA offer mobility and coverage, they lack speed.” : 

5 04 Oct 2005 ITU TELECOM AMERICAS 2005 “And while today's mobile services, such as GSM and CDMA offer mobility and coverage, they lack speed.” 2G mobile cellular population coverage, %, 2004 Note: As reported by largest operator. Coverage may be higher since operators may not have coverage in same areas. Source: TMG, Inc.

Slide 6: 

“And while today's mobile services, such as GSM and CDMA offer mobility and coverage, they lack speed.” Do they? Actual speeds on Verizon CDMA2000EV-DO and 1X mobile networks, Using compression software, Washington DC, Sep. 2005

3G Mobile in South AmericaIMT-2000 systems : 

7 04 Oct 2005 ITU TELECOM AMERICAS 2005 3G Mobile in South AmericaIMT-2000 systems Venezuela 1X Nov. 2002 EDGE Oct. 2004 EV-DO Feb. 2005 Brazil 1X Dec. 2001 EDGE Mar. 2004 EV-DO Oct. 2004 Uruguay 1X Mar. 2004 EDGE Dec. 2004 WCDMA* Jul. 2005 Colombia 1X Apr. 2003 EDGE May 2005 Ecuador 1X Dec. 2002 EDGE Oct. 2005 Peru 1X Nov. 2003 EV-DO Jan. 2005 EDGE Jan. 2005 Chile 1X Nov. 2002 EDGE Oct. 2003 EV-DO Sep. 2004 Argentina 1X Dec. 2003 EDGE Mar. 2004 * Trial. Source: TMG, Inc. Paraguay EDGE Sep. 2004 Bolivia EDGE Aug. 2004

WiMax in Latin America : 

8 04 Oct 2005 ITU TELECOM AMERICAS 2005 WiMax in Latin America Ertach Argentina launches first WiMax network in region (December 2004) Terra Guatemala claims to offer WiMax Colombia and Honduras have awarded frequency (3.5 GHz)

Slide 9: 

It is not surprising that wireless broadband solutions that could provide both high-speed and high-mobility services are being actively developed and hotly debated. Such (potential) solutions are making big waves in the marketplace, and are of growing concern to traditional Internet service providers and mobile operators who may eventually have to compete against cable TV companies and fixed line operators. Where is the future market for such services in the Americas region?

Where is the future market for such services in the Americas region? : 

10 04 Oct 2005 ITU TELECOM AMERICAS 2005 Where is the future market for such services in the Americas region? Latin America, % of households, 2004 Source: TMG, Inc.

Where is the future market for such services in the Americas region? : 

11 04 Oct 2005 ITU TELECOM AMERICAS 2005 Where is the future market for such services in the Americas region? Source: TMG, Inc. Telephone subscribers per 100 inhabitants, Latin America

Where is the future market for such services in the Americas region? : 

12 04 Oct 2005 ITU TELECOM AMERICAS 2005 Where is the future market for such services in the Americas region? Source: TMG, Inc. adapted from Subtel, Osiptel, Vivo, Supertel.

Where is the future market for such services in the Americas region? : 

13 04 Oct 2005 ITU TELECOM AMERICAS 2005 Where is the future market for such services in the Americas region? “…even supporters say WiMax isn’t likely to displace DSL or cable broadband services anytime soon…Rather…the biggest impact is where that infrastructure does not yet exist.”-USA Today

Slide 14: 

“How can traditional as well as non-traditional telecommunication companies develop viable business models in this rapidly changing technological environment?”

“How can traditional as well as non-traditional telecommunication companies develop viable business models in this rapidly changing technological environment?” : 

15 04 Oct 2005 ITU TELECOM AMERICAS 2005 “How can traditional as well as non-traditional telecommunication companies develop viable business models in this rapidly changing technological environment?” Source:

“How can traditional as well as non-traditional telecommunication companies develop viable business models in this rapidly changing technological environment?” : 

16 04 Oct 2005 ITU TELECOM AMERICAS 2005 “How can traditional as well as non-traditional telecommunication companies develop viable business models in this rapidly changing technological environment?” Average price of telecom services in Latin America, Monthly baskets, US$ Note: Fixed is for 2004, Mobile and cable for 2005 and Internet for 2003. Source: Fixed, cable and mobile (TMG, Inc.), Internet (ITU). Can they beat these prices?

“How can traditional as well as non-traditional telecommunication companies develop viable business models in this rapidly changing technological environment?” : 

17 04 Oct 2005 ITU TELECOM AMERICAS 2005 “How can traditional as well as non-traditional telecommunication companies develop viable business models in this rapidly changing technological environment?” Costs: Backbone, antennas, spectrum, interconnection, customer equipment Spectrum: 2.5 GHz & 3.5 GHz (generally licensed), 5 GHz (generally unlicensed) Regulatory & technical issues: Voice? Mobility?

How will advanced mobile services, such as IMT-2000 (3G) and systems beyond, interact with wireless broadband systems such as WiMax and IEEE 802.20 (Mobile-fi) and newer iterations? : 

18 04 Oct 2005 ITU TELECOM AMERICAS 2005 How will advanced mobile services, such as IMT-2000 (3G) and systems beyond, interact with wireless broadband systems such as WiMax and IEEE 802.20 (Mobile-fi) and newer iterations? Data3

How can we ensure that technological advances in broadband wireless are in line with user demand? : 

19 04 Oct 2005 ITU TELECOM AMERICAS 2005 How can we ensure that technological advances in broadband wireless are in line with user demand? Internet users per 100 inhabitants, Latin America Forecast based on trend Source: TMG, Inc.

Conclusions : 

20 04 Oct 2005 ITU TELECOM AMERICAS 2005 Conclusions Wireless broadband can be a positive “disruptive” technology if technical, commercial and regulatory challenges are overcome (competition factor) Market needs to be expanded by developing awareness & education and creating compelling applications (government factor) How will mobility factor play out? (socio-economic factor)

Thank You : 

Thank You minges@tmgtelecom.com Telecommunications Management Group, Inc. 1600 Wilson Boulevard, Suite 710 Arlington, VA 22209 USA +1.703.224.1501 www.tmgtelecom.com