Population GrowthandEconomic Development :Population GrowthandEconomic Development Angela Camins Mausi Sauer


If a picture paints a thousand words :If a picture paints a thousand words


The Basic Issue: Population Growth and Quality of Life :The Basic Issue: Population Growth and Quality of Life Six major issues: Will developing countries be able to improve levels of living given anticipated population growth? How will developing countries deal with the vast increases in their labor forces? How will higher population growth rates affect poverty?


The Basic Issue: Population Growth and Quality of Life :The Basic Issue: Population Growth and Quality of Life Six major issues (cont’d): Will developing countries be able to extend the coverage and improve the quality of health care and education in the face of rapid population growth? Is there a relationship between poverty and family size? How does affluence in the developed world affect the ability of developing countries to provide for their people?


All About Numbers :All About Numbers History, Structure and Trends in Population Growth


Population Growth through History :Population Growth through History Slow Growth in the Past There was a long period of stationary growth (no growth) until 1000BC when the world's population was approximately 300 million This was followed by a period of slow growth from 1000 B.C.E. to approximately 1750, at which time global population was an estimated 800 million. Until this time, the world's population was kept in check by high death rates, which were due to the combined effects of plagues, famines, unsanitary living conditions, and general poverty


Population Growth through History :Population Growth through History The Age of Industrialization After 1750, the world's population grew substantially; By 1950 it had tripled to around 2.5 billion. In this 200-year period, the doubling time was 122 years. Growth from 1950 to 1985 was even more dramatic; by 1985, the human population was 5 billion.


World Population through History :World Population through History Today and Tomorrow… Human mortality is now lower than at any other point in history but birth rates continue to be high due to technological advances. By 2000 global population was 6 billion and is projected to be 9 billion in 2050. While it took 1,750 years to add 480M people before 1750, it now only takes 6 years to add the same number of people to the population! By 2200, world population will be at a maximum of 11 billion people.


Structure of the World’s Population:By Geographic Region :Structure of the World’s Population:By Geographic Region More than ¾ of the world’s population live in developing countries


Structure of the World’s Population:By Fertility and Mortality Levels :Structure of the World’s Population:By Fertility and Mortality Levels Rate of Population Increase The yearly net increase/decrease in population size due to natural increase (excess of births over deaths) and net international migration Developed versus Developing Countries LDC death and birthrates are higher. The average rate of population growth in LDCs is now about 1.3% per year (1.6% excluding China), whereas MDCs have an annual average natural growth rate of only 0.1%.


Structure of the World’s Population:By Age Structure :Structure of the World’s Population:By Age Structure


Structure of the World’s Population:By Age Structure :Structure of the World’s Population:By Age Structure The Burden of Dependency Children under the age of 15 constitute more than 31% of total population of developing countries but just 18% of developed nations. The more rapid the population growth rate, the greater the proportion of dependent children in the total population and the more difficult it is for people who are working to support those who are not.


The Hidden Momentum :The Hidden Momentum Population growth has a built-in tendency to continue even if birthrates drop Why? High birthrates can’t be altered substantially overnight (social forces influencing fertility over the years vs. new policies of national leaders) The age structure of LDCs have a large proportion of children and adolescents, leading to an equally large proportion of potential parents


The Demographic Transition :The Demographic Transition The process by which fertility rates eventually decline to replacement levels


The Demographic Transition :The Demographic Transition Stage 1: Pre-industrial Society High death rates and birth rates = balance Stage 2: Developing Country Death rates drop due to technology (improved food supply, health care and education) High birth rates remain = large rise in the population Stage 3: Developed Countries Birth rates fall due to access to contraception; increases in wages, the status and education of women; and a reduction in the value of children's work Population growth begins to level off. Stage 4: Developed but Ageing Low death and birth rates


The Causes of High Fertility :The Causes of High Fertility


The Malthusian Population Trap :The Malthusian Population Trap Suggests that the population will be forced to live at the subsistence level of income as population growth outstrips growth in the supply of food. Population grows at a geometric rate while food supplies expand only at an arithmetic rate Per capita income would have the tendency to fall so low as to lead to a stable population existing barely at or slightly above the subsistence level. Solutions Preventive checks (birth control, moral restraint) Positive checks (starvation, disease, wars)


Criticisms of the Malthusian Model :Criticisms of the Malthusian Model They do not take adequate account of the role and impact of technological progress They are based on a hypothesis about a macro relationship between population growth and levels of per capita income that does not stand up to empirical testing They focus on the wrong variable , per capita income, as the principal determinant of population growth rates


The Micro-economic Household Theory of Fertility :The Micro-economic Household Theory of Fertility People choose how many children to "consume" as part of their utility maximization problem. Children in LDCs can be thought of as investment goods. Demand for children is determined by: Family preferences for a certain number of surviving (usually male) children Price or “opportunity cost” of rearing children (mother’s time to earn, educational attainment of children relative to earning potential) By levels of family income


Implications for Development and Fertility :Implications for Development and Fertility Birth rates among the poor are likely to fall with: An increase in education of women and consequently change in their role and status Increase in female non-agricultural wage employment opportunities, which raises the price or cost of their traditional child-rearing activities Rise in family income levels through the increased direct employment and earnings of husband and wife or through the redistribution of income and assets from rich to poor.


Implications for Development and Fertility :Implications for Development and Fertility Birth rates among the poor are likely to fall with: Reduction in infant mortality through expanded public-health programs and better nutritional status for both mother and children and better medical care Development of old-age and other social security systems outside the extended family network to lessen the economic dependence of parents, especially women, on their offspring Expanded schooling opportunities so parents can better substitute child “quality” for large numbers of children


Population Growth Is… :Population Growth Is… The Consequences of High Fertility


Not a Real Problem – other issues :Not a Real Problem – other issues Underdevelopment As long as the poor remain uneducated and weak, a large family will be the only real source of social security World Resource Depletion and Environment Destruction Developed nations should curtail their excessively high consumption instead Population Distribution Government must reduce rural-urban migration Subordination of Women Empower women = smaller families


Not a Problem – it’s not true! :Not a Problem – it’s not true! A Deliberately Contrived False Issue The over concern of MDCs with the population growth of LDCs is just an attempt to hold down the development of the latter Rich nations are pressuring poor nations to adopt aggressive population control programs even though they themselves went through a period of sizeable population increase that accelerated their own development process MDCs are scared that the large populations of LDCs may pose a threat to their own welfare


Not a Problem – it’s actually good! :Not a Problem – it’s actually good! A Desirable Phenomenon Population growth is essential to stimulate economic development Larger populations = larger consumer demand to generate favorable economies of scale Free markets will always adjust to any scarcities created by population issues


It IS a Problem – Extremist Argument :It IS a Problem – Extremist Argument Population and the Global Crisis Attributes almost all of the world’s economic and social evils to excessive population growth Principal cause of poverty, low levels of living, malnutrition, world food supply crisis, oil crisis, ill health, environmental degradation, ecological disasters and other social problems The “population bomb” requires severe measures such as compulsory sterilization in some of the most populated LDCs!


It IS a Problem – Theoretical Argument :It IS a Problem – Theoretical Argument Population-Poverty Cycles and the Need for Family Planning Programs Too rapid population growth yields negative economic consequences Population growth retards the prospects of a better life by reducing savings rates and eating up limited government revenues just to provide the most basic economic, health and social services to additional citizens Large families = large population = Less investments = less GDP and per capital income = more poverty = large families


It IS a Problem – Empirical Argument :It IS a Problem – Empirical Argument Seven Negative Consequences of Population Growth. Economic Growth Poverty and Inequality Education Health Food Environment International Migration


What Do We Do Now? :What Do We Do Now? Goals, Objectives and Policies to Control Population Growth


3 Policy Goals and Objectives :3 Policy Goals and Objectives The primary objective to limit further growth must deal not only with the population variable per se but also with the underlying social and economic conditions of underdevelopment. To bring about smaller families through development-induced motivations, family-planning programs providing both the education and the technological means to regulate fertility for people who wish to regulate should it be established. Developed countries should assist developing countries their lowered fertility and mortality objectives not only by providing contraceptives and funding family-planning clinics but also by curtailing their own excessive depletion of nonrenewable world resources.


3 Areas of Policy :3 Areas of Policy What Developing Countries Can Do Persuade people to have smaller families through the media and the educational process, both formal and informal. Establish family-planning programs to provide health and contraceptive services to encourage the desired behavior. Deliberately manipulate economic incentives and disincentives for having children Coerce people into having smaller families through the power of state legislation and penalties. Raise the social economic status of women and hence create conditions favorable to delayed marriage and lower marital fertility.


3 Areas of Policy :3 Areas of Policy What the Developed Countries Can Do Simplify their consumption demands and lifestyles Liberalize the legal conditions for the international immigration of poor, unskilled workers and their families from Africa, Asia, Latin America to North America, Europe, Japan, and Australia


3 Areas of Policy :3 Areas of Policy How Developed Countries Can Assist Furthering efforts to improve the effectiveness of contraceptive technology while minimizing the health risk should be encouraged. Financial assistance for family-planning programs, public education, and national population policy research activities in the developing countries


Example of LDC Population Control Policy :Example of LDC Population Control Policy The one-child policy is the population control policy (or planned birth policy) of the People's Republic of China (PRC). The Chinese government introduced the policy in 1979 to alleviate the social and environmental problems of China. The policy is controversial both within and outside China because of the issues it raises; because of the manner in which the policy has been implemented; and because of concerns about negative economic and social consequences.


The One Child Policy of China :The One Child Policy of China The one-child policy promotes couples having only one child in rural and urban areas. However, parents of twins, triplets, etc. are given the same benefits as parents of one child. The limit has been strongly enforced in urban areas, but the actual implementation varies from location to location. In most rural areas, families are allowed to have two children if the first child is female or disabled. Second children are subject to (usually 3 or 4 years). Additional children will result in large fines: families violating the policy are required to pay monetary penalties and might be denied bonuses at their workplace. Children born in overseas countries are not counted under the policy if they do not obtain Chinese citizenship. Chinese citizens returning from abroad can have a second child.


Population growth and fertility rate reduction of China :Population growth and fertility rate reduction of China With the one child policy, the fertility rate in China has fallen from over 2, to 1.7 births per woman (having already fallen from about 5 through the 70s) In total, China estimates that it has three to four hundred million fewer people today with the one child policy than it would have had otherwise. Chinese authorities thus consider the policy as a great success in helping to implement China's current economic growth. The reduction in fertility rate and thus population size reduced the severity of problems that come with overpopulation, like epidemics, slums, overwhelmed social services (health, education, law enforcement, and more), and strain on the ecosystem from abuse of fertile land and production of high volumes of waste


Non-population related benefits :Non-population related benefits Impact on health care and childbearing attitudes Increased savings rate Economic growth Increased involvement of women in the labor force Solving Environmental problems


Criticisms and Effects of the One Child Policy :Criticisms and Effects of the One Child Policy Human rights The one-child policy is challenged in principle and in practice over violating basic human rights. Reported abuses in its enforcement include bribery, coercion, forced sterilization, forced abortion, and possibly infanticide, with most reports coming from rural areas. The "Four-Two-One" problem Eugenic policies Discrimination against Han Chinese Discrimination against city communities Government corruption Side effects on female population Gender-based birthrate disparity Abandoned or orphaned children and adoption Infanticide The desire for children, fertility medicines, and family planning