IMAGINE 2035 Round 1 Presentation

Slide 1: 

1 ADD COVER Public Meeting Round 1: Where are we going? IMAGINE 2035 Midsouth Transportation + Land Use Plan April 19, 2010 – May 13, 2010 Presented by the Memphis Metropolitan Planning Organization (MPO)

Meeting Agenda : 

Meeting Agenda Presentation Q & A Next Steps Group Exercise 2 IMAGINE 2035 Welcome & Introduction

What is the Memphis MPO? : 

What is the Memphis MPO? Metropolitan Planning Organization (MPO) Federally mandated organization Responsible for long-range transportation planning in the region Helps prioritize and prepare documents for spending federal transportation funds 3 IMAGINE 2035 Welcome & Introduction

Slide 4: 

4 MPO AREA

What is IMAGINE 2035? : 

What is IMAGINE 2035? Regional Visioning & Scenario Planning Initiative Scenario Planning: A tool to explore the “what ifs” of our regions future Will show what the future might look like if we stay on our current course Compare the tradeoffs between various growth options 5 IMAGINE 2035 Welcome & Introduction

Purpose of IMAGINE 2035 : 

Purpose of IMAGINE 2035 Chance to bring together government, business leaders, and the public Explore regional growth & transportation options Generate ideas for next Long Range Transportation Plan 6 IMAGINE 2035 Welcome & Introduction

Project Team : 

Project Team Memphis MPO Local governments in Shelby, Fayette, and Desoto County Tennessee Dept. of Transportation Mississippi Dept. of Transportation Federal Highway Administration Federal Transit Administration Environmental Protection Agency 7 IMAGINE 2035 Welcome & Introduction

Why Are We Here Tonight? : 

Why Are We Here Tonight? Learn what our region might look like in the future Discuss major trends and potential issues Identify community values that are important to you (Group Exercise) 8 IMAGINE 2035 Welcome & Introduction

IMAGINE 2035 Process : 

IMAGINE 2035 Process 9 Where Are We Headed? Option A ? Option B ? Option C ? Option D ? What Kind of Future Do We Choose?

Where Are We Tonight? : 

Where Are We Tonight? 10 “Business as Usual” Scenario Alternative Scenario Alternative Scenario Alternative Scenario Alternative Scenario Preferred Scenario Public Meeting #1 April / May 2010 Where are we headed ? What are our options ? What kind of future do we choose ?

IMAGINE 2035 Process : 

IMAGINE 2035 Process 11 “Business as Usual” Scenario Alternative Scenario Alternative Scenario Alternative Scenario Alternative Scenario Preferred Scenario Public Meeting #1 Public Meeting #2 Public Meeting #3 Public Meeting #4 April / May 2010 June / July 2010 August 2010 October 2010 Where are we headed ? What are our options ? What kind of future do we choose ? Growth Workshops

Existing Conditions : 

Existing Conditions

Development by 1930 : 

Development by 1930 13 IMAGINE 2035 Existing Conditions

Development by 1930 : 

Development by 1930 14 IMAGINE 2035 Existing Conditions

Slide 15: 

15 IMAGINE 2035 Existing Conditions Development by 1960

Development by 1990 : 

Development by 1990 16 IMAGINE 2035 Existing Conditions

Development by 2010 : 

Development by 2010 17 IMAGINE 2035 Existing Conditions

Place Types : 

Place Types General categories of land use Used to describe the character of an area Includes a range of rural, suburban, and urban places 18 IMAGINE 2035 Existing Conditions

Place Type Examples : 

Place Type Examples Place Types include technical data such as land use, density, building height, street pattern, etc 19 IMAGINE 2035 Existing Conditions

Place Types : 

20 Place Types

Key Regional Trends : 

Key Regional Trends Population is growing, but not equally Most new development is happening in rural or suburban areas Population loss in urban core Must pay for new infrastructure and services as development spreads out Automobile is primary mode of transportation Commute time and cost increasing 21 IMAGINE 2035 Existing Conditions

“Business as usual” Scenario : 

“Business as usual” Scenario

What is the BAU Scenario? : 

What is the BAU Scenario? “Business as Usual” (BAU) Scenario Also known as the “Trend Scenario” Land Use Model that predicts where new growth will go by 2035 Assumes current trends continue Created with input from local planning departments and development community Shows what we think will happen, not necessarily what we want to happen 23 IMAGINE 2035 “Business As Usual” Scenario

What makes up the BAU? : 

What makes up the BAU? Supply How much land is available to build on ? Suitability What land is most desirable for new development ? Demand How many new people and jobs will be in our region in the future ? 24 IMAGINE 2035 “Business As Usual” Scenario

STUDY AREA : 

25 STUDY AREA

SUPPLY:Constraints : 

26 SUPPLY:Constraints

SUPPLY:ExistingDevelopment : 

27 SUPPLY:ExistingDevelopment

SUPPLY:AvailableLand : 

28 SUPPLY:AvailableLand

Suitability : 

Suitability “The likelihood of one parcel developing before another” Helps predict where new growth is likely to go 3 categories of suitability Residential Office & Commercial Industrial 29 IMAGINE 2035 “Business As Usual” Scenario

Suitability Factors : 

Suitability Factors Suitability Factors Considered Include: Appraised value of land Availability of water and sewer Distance to employment centers and retail centers Distance to major road Livability and walkability Perception of crime Perception of public school system Property tax rate Skilled workforce and high-income block groups Distance to airport, Intermodal facility, and railroad 30 IMAGINE 2035 “Business As Usual” Scenario

Examples of Suitability Factors : 

Examples of Suitability Factors 31 Major Roads Employment Centers Intermodal Facilities & Major Airport Retail Centers IMAGINE 2035 “Business As Usual” Scenario

Suitability:Residential : 

32 Suitability:Residential

Suitability:Industrial : 

33 Suitability:Industrial

Suitability:Retail & Office : 

34 Suitability:Retail & Office

Demand : 

Demand How many new people and jobs will be here by 2035? How much land is needed for new homes and businesses by 2035? Population estimates from Woods & Poole Inc. 35 IMAGINE 2035 “Business As Usual” Scenario

Future Growth Trends : 

Future Growth Trends 36 Source: Woods & Poole Economics Inc. (2009)

County Population Trends : 

County Population Trends 37 Source: Woods & Poole Economics Inc. (2009) SHELBY DESOTO FAYETTE

County Growth Rates : 

County Growth Rates 38 Source: Woods & Poole Economics Inc. (2009) SHELBY DESOTO FAYETTE

Future Demand - Population : 

Future Demand - Population 39 * Portion within MPO Boundary Source: Woods & Poole Economics Inc. (2009) 228,626 additional people (2008-2035) 17.8% population increase within study area (2008-2035) 116,409 new households (2008-2035) Population within the MPO Area

Future Demand - Jobs : 

Future Demand - Jobs 40 252,249 new jobs within study area (2008-2035) Study Area Employment Estimates Source: Woods & Poole Economics Inc. (2009)

Allocation- Households & Jobs : 

Allocation- Households & Jobs Land Use Model predicts where new homes and businesses might be located Based upon supply of available land and the suitability factors 41 IMAGINE 2035 “Business As Usual” Scenario

Slide 42: 

42 Allocation:Households

Slide 43: 

43 Allocation:Employment

Future implications : 

Future implications

Potential Outcomes of BAU : 

Potential Outcomes of BAU More open space will be consumed Must pay for new roads, schools, and other services in suburban and rural areas Underutilized facilities & services in urban areas and older suburbs Difficult to link jobs and housing Longer commutes Increased air pollution 45 IMAGINE 2035 Future Implications

Population Growth by 2035 : 

Population Growth by 2035 228,626 new people (17.8% increase) Estimated Population Growth within our region: 7 times the population of Collierville 51 times the population of Mud Island 12 ½ sellouts at the FedEx Forum 46 IMAGINE 2035 Future Implications

New Development by 2035 : 

New Development by 2035 Amount of Space Needed for Development: About 46,500 acres total (75% outside Memphis) New development area will be about twice the size of Bartlett, TN 47 IMAGINE 2035 Future Implications

Next Steps : 

Next Steps Group Exercise Tonight- Community Values 2nd Round Public Meetings (June/July 2010) Will examine the BAU model in more detail What are our other options for growth? Hands-on workshop 48 IMAGINE 2035 Future Implications

Q & A : 

Q & A

Housekeeping Items : 

Housekeeping Items Please turn in blue survey form Sign the sign-in sheet before you leave Please visit us at www.Imagine2035.com IMAGINE 2035 is on Facebook Meeting is over after your small group is finished Keep an eye out for 2nd round of public meetings in July/August 2010 50 IMAGINE 2035 Housekeeping Items

Group exercise : 

Group exercise

Group Exercise - Values : 

Group Exercise - Values Purpose is to identify community values Step 1: “Brainstorm” the values that are important to you and your region Step 2: “Vote with a dot” to tell us how our region is doing right now for each value 52 IMAGINE 2035 Next Steps

Group Exercise - Values : 

Group Exercise - Values How are we going to use your input ? Use values to develop a “scorecard” Will use the scorecard to evaluate the BAU at the next round of public meetings Will also use scorecard to compare the alternative scenarios 53 IMAGINE 2035 Next Steps

Q & A : 

Q & A

www.imagine2035.com : 

www.imagine2035.com Please visit us online at Or call (901) 379-7840