Battle Year 2016 and Beyond DemNet

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Understanding Election 2014 Collin County “Texas isnt a Red State its a non-voting state ” Paul Begala BattlegroundTX BGTX fundraiser Austin Texas - Jun 22 2013 Michael Handley mdhandleytx.rr.com 1

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Collin Democrats Coordinated Campaign • Road Signs at Major Intersections 160 - 2.9k – Collected to reuse in 2016 • Wendy / Leticia yard signs 1300 - 2.5k • Voter’s Guide Newspaper 20000 - 4k • Paid Block Walk Program 10.2K – Average 1 / door • Candidates’ Breakfast 105 guests • Rally with Leticia at Collin College 85+ guests • September Candidate Rally 600-700 guests • Targeted Web Advertising 5k • Signs placed a ED and EV polling places 2

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2014 In Context 15 Largest Texas Counties COUNTIES Registered 2010 Registered 2014 Delta 2010 2014 Votes 2010 Votes 2014 Delta 2010 2014 ALL COUNTIES 13269233 14025441 756208 4979870 38 4727208 34 252662 HARRIS 1937850 2062792 124942 788234 41 680076 33 108158 DALLAS 1145427 1203513 58086 424511 37 407260 34 17251 TARRANT 936735 999687 62952 347489 37 372973 37 25484 BEXAR 905859 957110 51251 304062 34 300950 31 3112 TRAVIS 604374 655056 50682 238148 39 267795 41 29647 COLLIN 424672 489032 64360 156668 37 177131 36 20463 DENTON 364593 407040 42447 131143 36 144010 35 12867 EL PASO 379727 403979 24252 88505 23 80408 20 8097 FORT BEND 309026 363147 54121 139071 45 132468 36 6603 HIDALGO 296510 318772 22262 73166 25 80219 25 7053 MONTGOMERY 249954 281496 31542 114560 46 104895 37 9665 WILLIAMSON 237763 271612 33849 101141 43 103910 38 2769 GALVESTON 189554 191961 2407 61872 33 64854 34 2982 NUECES 182802 190179 7377 75891 42 57005 30 18886 CAMERON 174188 186563 12375 40964 24 39407 21 1557 TL 15 COUNTIES 8339034 8981939 642905 3085425 37 3013361 34 72064 3

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2014 In Context 15 Largest Texas Counties COUNTIES Perry REP 2010 Abbott REP 2014 Delta 2010 2014 White DEM 2010 Davis DEM 2014 Delta 2010 2014 ALL COUNTIES 2737481 55 2796274 59 58793 2106395 42 1835896 39 270499 HARRIS 379516 48 349639 51 29877 395952 50 320160 47 75792 DALLAS 180665 43 178273 44 2392 234478 55 223136 55 11342 TARRANT 194583 56 213120 57 18537 142392 41 153214 41 10822 BEXAR 146760 48 149697 50 2937 148452 49 145711 48 2741 TRAVIS 87509 37 91301 34 3792 142345 60 169141 63 26796 COLLIN 100359 64 116365 66 16006 51890 33 57757 33 5867 DENTON 83726 64 93683 65 9957 43073 33 47238 33 4165 EL PASO 32536 37 29953 37 2583 54247 61 48506 60 5741 FORT BEND 71658 52 73749 56 2091 65432 47 56825 43 8607 HIDALGO 23232 32 27909 35 4677 48895 67 50303 63 1408 MONTGOMERY 86178 75 83938 80 2240 25919 23 19179 18 6740 WILLIAMSON 59271 59 61496 59 2225 37319 37 39516 38 2197 GALVESTON 32593 53 40422 62 7829 27921 45 23201 36 4720 NUECES 43051 57 30854 54 12197 31186 41 24746 43 6440 CAMERON 16722 41 16556 42 166 23474 57 21859 55 1615 TL 15 COUNTIES 1538359 50 1556955 52 18596 1472975 48 1400492 46 72483 Wendy Davis bettered Bill Whites 2010 vote count in only 13 counties: Brooks Collin Denton Duval Haskell Hidalgo Kinney Refugio Schleicher Starr Tarrant Travis and Williamson. 4

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2014 Turnout by Age Group Population estimates from: Texas Dept of State Health Services DSHS Center for Health Statistics  http://www.dshs.state.tx.us/chs/popdat/ST2014.shtm  Voter registration and election data from County Registrar’s office 124987 139307 153557 121195 74168 52836 81190 84337 111518 101027 65934 46347 10432 20696 37861 44288 36758 27038 0 20000 40000 60000 80000 100000 120000 140000 160000 180000 18-29 30-39 40-49 50-59 60-69 70+ VAP Reg Voters Voted 13 25 34 44 56 58 Collin County Voter Turnout by Age Group 5 Age Group VAP Reg Voters of VAP Voted of Reg 18-19 25548 13172 52 1749 13 20-24 50490 34274 68 3783 11 25-29 48949 33619 69 4876 15 30-34 65262 38601 59 8340 22 35-39 74045 45652 62 12314 27 40-44 80977 56141 69 17727 32 45-49 72580 55402 76 20126 36 50-54 67865 55611 82 23263 42 55-59 53330 45433 85 21015 46 60-64 40856 35959 88 18928 53 65-69 33312 30059 90 17859 59 70-74 21918 20263 92 13013 64 75-79 13834 12073 87 7560 63 80-84 8743 7350 84 4039 55 85+ 8341 6744 81 2481 37 All 666050 490353 74 177073 36 Voting eligible population is 576124 adults yielding a registration rate of 85 percent.

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Newly Registered Voters Collin County Wide 7859 3120 3727 4745 4118 4067 2988 2494 1910 1537 1197 791 434 319 299 971 353 609 739 637 733 571 574 498 426 368 251 143 106 77 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000 18-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 85+ Reg In 2014 Reg 2014 and Voted 39605 Registered In 2014 But Only 7056 Voted Age Group Reg Voters Reg After 2008 Primary Haven’t Voted ‘08-’14 Not Voted 18-19 14317 14317 12451 87 20-24 34124 33394 19239 56 25-29 33634 19515 16011 48 30-34 38882 25078 15864 41 35-39 45817 26100 14550 32 40-44 56538 26197 14404 25 45-49 55211 20456 11728 21 50-54 55485 16461 9900 18 55-59 45179 12459 7360 16 60-64 35668 9691 5195 15 65-69 29780 7837 3651 12 70-74 20030 4908 2223 11 75-79 11878 2814 1336 11 80-84 7281 1906 1035 14 85+ 6573 1971 1399 21 All 490397 223104 136346 28 Currently Registered And Not Voting 0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 60000 18-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 85+ Reg Voters Reg After 2008 Primary Not Voted 2008-14 Out of 223104 who registered after the 2008 primary 5216 voted in a subsequent Democratic primary. 6

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2014 Demographics Collin County Wide 0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 60000 70000 80000 90000 VAP - 666050 Anglo - 413762 Hisp - 99058 Asian - 94202 Black - 59028 Reg - 490353 Voted - 177073 Non Anglo - 252288 Age Group VAP Anglo Hisp Asian Black 18-19 25548 13172 5556 3974 2846 20-24 50490 25330 12104 6945 6111 25-29 48949 25590 11642 6829 4888 30-34 65262 36390 13024 9657 6191 35-39 74045 40687 13601 12710 7047 40-44 80977 45755 12836 14143 8243 45-49 72580 43911 9935 11863 6871 50-54 67865 45618 7365 8764 6118 55-59 53330 38096 4852 6072 4310 60-64 40856 30181 3166 4717 2792 65-69 33312 26045 2000 3476 1791 70-74 21918 17418 1282 2312 906 75-79 13834 10974 852 1546 462 80-84 8743 7351 460 712 220 85+ 8341 7244 383 482 232 All 666050 413762 99058 94202 59028  36K Hispanics are registered.  Affiliation: 3.9K Dem / 2.8K Rep  40K Asians registered. Affiliations: 4.5K Dem / 1.7K Rep  8719 Hispanics and 7197 Asians voted in 2014. Smaller portion are Voting Age Citizens. Source 1: http://www.dshs.state.tx.us/chs/popdat/ Source 2: County Elections Data 7

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Turnout By Party Affiliation Collin County Wide Dem Primary Voters Dem Voted 2014 Rep Primary Voters Rep Voted 2014 56 29 52 266 117 44 397 154 39 1733 608 35 1757 462 26 1797 685 38 2055 764 37 2498 1412 57 3735 1758 47 3982 2459 62 6142 3016 49 6847 4471 65 6669 3356 50 8792 6181 70 7611 4057 53 11348 8335 73 6635 3775 57 10259 7918 77 5700 3520 62 9054 7331 81 4614 3060 66 9271 7835 85 2932 1982 68 7445 6448 87 1731 1093 63 4811 4118 86 1063 595 56 2707 2159 80 924 377 41 1945 1258 65 52021 27998 54 82755 61335 74 8

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Turnout By The Numbers Collin County Wide US Senator John Cornyn REP 119450 68.36 David M. Alameel DEM 48876 27.97 Governor Greg Abbott REP 115647 65.65 Wendy R. Davis DEM 57431 32.60 Lt. Governor Dan Patrick REP 113146 64.76 Leticia Van de Putte DEM 56052 32.08 Attorney General Ken Paxton REP 115197 66.02 Sam Houston DEM 54516 31.25 Comptroller Public Accounts Glenn Hegar REP 113074 65.82 Mike Collier DEM 52189 30.38 Railroad Commissioner Ryan Sitton REP 113723 66.50 Steve Brown DEM 49458 28.92 State Board of Education D12 Geraldine Miller REP 113181 66.36 Lois Parrott DEM 51241 30.05 Justice 5 th Court of Appeals Craig Stoddart REP 115558 68.98 Ken Molberg DEM 51976 31.02 9

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Turnout By The Numbers Collin County Wide 25577 31953 51885 57431 41253 51976 0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 60000 70000 Straight Dem 2010 Straight Dem 2014 White 2010 Davis 2014 Goldstein 2010 Molberg 2014 71016 80833 100359 115647 108507 115558 0 20000 40000 60000 80000 100000 120000 140000 Straight Rep 2010 Straight Rep 2014 Perry 2010 Abbott 2014 Myers 2010 Stoddart 2014 424548 489032 157785 177062 0 200000 400000 600000 Reg Voters 2010 Reg Voters 2014 Turnout 2010 Turnout 2014 2014 Vote  46 of the total vote was straight party Rep.  18 of the total vote was straight party Dem.  70 of the Rep vote was straight party.  56 of the Dem vote was straight party.  Reg voters increased 15 over 2010 but turnout increased only 12 37.1 36.2 33 32.6 65.6 63.9 31 27.5 72.4 69 10

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Turnout By The Numbers House District 89 94300 106772 37151 40526 0 20000 40000 60000 80000 100000 120000 Reg Voters 10 Reg Voters 14 Turnout 10 Turnout 14 5726 7212 11350 12380 9158 11292 0 11105 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000 Straight Dem 10 Straight Dem 14 White 10 Davis 14 Goldstein 10 Molberg 14 Uncontested Race 10 Karmally 14 16712 19267 23351 27106 25252 27152 27026 27992 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 Straight Rep 10 Straight Rep 14 Perry 10 Abbott 14 Myers 10 Stoddart 14 Laubenberg 10 Laubenberg 14 39 37.9 11

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Turnout By The Numbers Justice of the Peace Pct 3 204652 223153 76667 82829 0 50000 100000 150000 200000 250000 Reg Voters 2010 Reg Voters 2014 Turnout 2010 Turnout 2014 13498 16472 27467 30102 21987 27248 20864 27023 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 Straight Dem 2010 Straight Dem 2014 White 2010 Davis 2014 Goldstein 2010 Molberg 2014 Flores 2010 Hamilton 2014 32636 34643 46461 50784 50579 50858 51816 52508 0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 60000 Straight Rep 2010 Straight Rep 2014 Perry 2010 Abbott 2014 Myers 2010 Stoddart 2014 Payton 2010 Payton 2014 37.4 37.1 12

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Numbers In Context Collin County Turnout History Total Total Total ED Mail EV EV EV Date Reg Votes Reg Ballots Ballots Ballots Ballots Reg Voters Cast Voters Cast Cast Cast Cast Voters Nov-88 122718 91230 74.30 71012 1778 18439 20.20 15 Nov-90 122114 71573 58.60 58301 1395 11876 16.60 10 Nov-92 153736 128808 83.80 83228 2511 43068 33.40 28 Nov-94 175916 98470 56.00 64853 1920 31697 32.20 18 Nov-96 231160 132925 57.50 79973 2592 50360 37.90 22 Nov-98 263573 84089 31.90 58030 1639 24419 29.00 9 Nov-00 300426 177673 59.10 100434 1995 75244 42.30 25 2-Nov 319236 129792 40.70 78770 3510 47512 36.60 15 4-Nov 369412 246617 66.80 92636 3980 150001 60.80 41 6-Nov 381821 138686 36.30 75570 1500 61616 44.40 16 8-Nov 425994 298647 70.10 78021 8989 211637 70.90 50 10-Nov 424672 157129 37.00 66036 3308 87785 55.90 21 12-Nov 458872 302821 66.00 79413 10937 212471 70.20 46 14-Nov 489032 177821 36.20 71623 8642 97556 54.90 20 16-Nov 526199 343494 65 90221 12827 240446 70.00 46 13

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8115 27103 7683 26110 7716 26060 7582 26133 7711 25998 7464 26247 4334 17799 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 Rockwall Co. 5 th COA ‘12 403170 294339 384464 287844 385390 286828 385992 284547 386505 285129 381796 288829 287839 195990 0 50000 100000 150000 200000 250000 300000 350000 400000 450000 Dallas Co. 5th Court of Appeals ‘12 100754 195933 92219 186545 92855 186083 91880 186199 93676 184788 91125 187056 61151 133158 0 50000 100000 150000 200000 250000 Collin Co. 5th COA ‘12 14 535418 585053 512649 571022 513362 570419 512065 568835 515967 566221 506800 574065 369193 391736 0 100000 200000 300000 400000 500000 600000 700000 Nov’12 All Counties 5th COA

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Collin Co. Presidential Year View 608966 458872 302821 61151 100754 133158 195933 0 200000 400000 600000 800000 VAP Reg Voters Total Voters Straight Dem Obama Straight Rep Romney Collin Co. Nov. 2012 66 33.2 64.7 712304 526119 343494 65143 114287 155575 222249 0 200000 400000 600000 800000 VAP Reg Voters Total Voters Straight Dem Dem Pres Straight Rep Rep Pres 74 66 33.2 64.7 712304 526119 368283 83239 146034 155575 222249 0 200000 400000 600000 800000 VAP Reg Voters Total Voters Straight Dem Dem Pres Straight Rep Rep Pres Collin Co. Nov. 2016 Goal 74 70 39.6 60.3 Collin Co. Nov. 2016 Trend 75 15

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Collin Co. Presidential Year View 0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 60000 70000 80000 VAP - 608966 Anglo - 390481 Hisp - 84636 Black - 51198 Asian - 82651 Non Anglo - 218485 Voted - 301686 Reg - 465219 2012 Total Collin Co. Pop – 846672 0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 60000 70000 80000 90000 VAP - 712304 Anglo - 430631 Hisp - 111405 Black - 65853 Asian - 104424 Non Anglo - 281682 Reg - 526199 Voted - 343494 2016 Total Collin Co. Pop - 970314 Age Grp Reg Voted 18-19 12668 5981 47 20-24 31060 11798 38 25-29 33392 14393 43 30-34 39315 21308 54 35-39 46891 29023 62 40-44 56533 37599 67 45-49 54395 38004 70 50-54 51662 37391 72 55-59 41196 30754 75 60-64 32965 25450 77 65-69 26407 21128 80 70-74 16533 13403 81 75-79 9978 7758 78 80-84 6389 4555 71 85+ 5835 3141 54 All 465219 301686 65 Age Grp Reg Voted 18-19 14671 6927 47 20-24 39566 15029 38 25-29 33783 14562 43 30-34 38828 21044 54 35-39 47570 29443 62 40-44 57785 38432 67 45-49 59826 41798 70 50-54 59026 42721 72 55-59 50005 37330 75 60-64 39443 30451 77 65-69 33159 26530 80 70-74 22741 18436 81 75-79 13811 10738 78 80-84 8297 5915 71 85+ 7688 4138 54 All 526199 343494 65 16 Collin Co. Nov. 2012 Collin Co. Nov. 2016 Trend

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Collin Co. Nov. 2012 Election Out of every seven Voting Age Persons in Collin Co. One voted for Obama two voted for Romney and four didn’t vote. Nearly two in four who didn’t vote are already registered. How Collin Co. Democrats build the trend for 2016 101k 196k Reg’d Not Reg’d Can Be I.D.’ed as Dem Can Not I.D. as Dem for GOTV Must I.D. as Leaning DEM for GOTV 17

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2016 In Context Collin County Turnout History 18 Government Level Office Incumbent Party Federal Statewide U.S. President Barak Obama D Federal CD 3 Congressman U.S. House of Representatives Sam Johnson R Federal CD 4 Congressman U.S. House of Representatives John Ratcliffe R Federal CD 32 Congressman U.S. House of Representatives Pete Sessions R Statewide Railroad Commission David Porter R Statewide Supreme Court of Texas - Justice Pl 3 Debra Lehrmann R Statewide Supreme Court of Texas - Justice Pl 5 Paul Green R Statewide Supreme Court of Texas - Justice Pl 9 Eva Guzman R Statewide Court of Criminal Appeals - Justice Pl 2 Lawrence “Larry” Meyers R Statewide Court of Criminal Appeals - Justice Pl 5 Cheryl Johnson R Statewide Court of Criminal Appeals - Justice Pl 6 Michael E. Keasler R 5th COA District Fifth District Court of Appeals - Justice Pl 4 Lana Myers R 5th COA District Fifth District Court of Appeals - Justice Pl 7 David Schenck R State House District 33 Scott Turner R State House District 66 Matt Shaheen R State House District 67 Jeff Leach R State House District 70 Scott Sanford R State House District 89 Jodie Laubenberg R County 199th District Court Judge Angela Tucker R County 380th District Court Judge Benjamin N. Smith R County 401st District Court Judge Mark Rusch R County 416th District Court Judge Chris Oldner R County Tax Assessor-Collector Kenneth Maun R County Commissioner Precinct 1 Susan Fletcher R County Commissioner Precinct 3 Chris Hill R County Constable Precinct 1 Shane Williams R County Constable Precinct 2 Joe Barton R County Constable Precinct 3 Sammy Knapp R County Constable Precinct 4 Joe Wright R County Sheriff Terry Box R

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