China H1N1 Pandemic

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The People’s Republic of China: H1N1 in China - pandemics of the 21st century :

The People’s Republic of China: H1N1 in China - pandemics of the 21st century By Marek A. Chodkiewicz

Requirement:

Requirement Estimate the impact of H1N1 on the country of China during the next 6-12 months The People's Republic of China Presentation: Marek Chodkiewicz 2

China Outlook 2009-10:

China Outlook 2009-10 H1N1 unlikely to severely impact the stability of the People’s Republic of China during the next 6-12 months Due to: Low fatality rates However : H1N1 likely to aggravate social unrest Despite : Likely millions of infected 3 The People's Republic of China Presentation: Marek Chodkiewicz

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The People's Republic of China Presentation: Marek Chodkiewicz 4

H1N1 and The People’s Republic of China:

H1N1 and The People’s Republic of China

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The People's Republic of China Presentation: Marek Chodkiewicz 6 Health Care system capabilities as they relate to pandemics and H1N1

Health Care system capabilities as they relate to pandemics and H1N1:

Health Care system capabilities as they relate to pandemics and H1N1 China's health care system highly likely not to be capable of efficiently monitoring and preventing the H1N1 pandemic Due to: large disparities between rural and urbanized communities heavily flawed and biased health system Despite government’s effort to: inoculate high risk groups reform the current health care system. 7 The People's Republic of China Presentation: Marek Chodkiewicz

Discussion:

Discussion Low spending on Health Care China's health system ranked 144th out of 190 countries L ack of government investment in disease monitoring 50% of rural communities without access to health care 8 The People's Republic of China Presentation: Marek Chodkiewicz

Discussion:

Discussion S topping H1N1 outbreaks and maintaining socia l stability : The government ’s expansive health care reform Manufacturing a diagnostic flu test kit Innoculating vulnerable groups to reduce social anxiety Short Form Analytic Report Briefing 2: Marek Chodkiewicz 9

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The People's Republic of China Presentation: Marek Chodkiewicz 10 H1N1 vaccine availability and distribution capabilities

H1N1 vaccine availability and distribution capabilities:

H1N1 vaccine availability and distribution capabilities It is highly unlikely that China will be able to vaccinate its entire high risk group D ue to : domestic vaccine production limitations 11 The People's Republic of China Presentation: Marek Chodkiewicz

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The People's Republic of China Presentation: Marek Chodkiewicz 12

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13 The People's Republic of China Presentation: Marek Chodkiewicz

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The People's Republic of China Presentation: Marek Chodkiewicz 14 Population vulnerabilities to H1N1 and the potential impact on segments of the population

Population vulnerabilities to H1N1 and the potential impact on segments of the population:

Population vulnerabilities to H1N1 and the potential impact on segments of the population Millions of people likely to become infected with the H1N1 virus during the next 6-12 months Due to: General high vulnerability to other communicable diseases e.g Tuberculosis (TB) China’s floating and rural part of the population is highly likely to be most vulnerable to the H1N1 virus D ue to : lack of access to proper health care 15 The People's Republic of China Presentation: Marek Chodkiewicz

The People’s Republic of China: General Issues:

The People’s Republic of China: General Issues The People's Republic of China Presentation: Marek Chodkiewicz 16

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The People's Republic of China Presentation: Marek Chodkiewicz 17 Transnational Issues

Transnational Issues:

Transnational Issues Sino-Indian relations are highly unlikely to deteriorate due to border disputes during the next 6-12 months despite : increased tensions created by domestic politicians. China and India are highly unlikely to establish a final demarcation line due to : lack of agreement upon the LAC 18 The People's Republic of China Presentation: Marek Chodkiewicz

Discussion:

Discussion 19 The People's Republic of China Presentation: Marek Chodkiewicz

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The People's Republic of China Presentation: Marek Chodkiewicz 20

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The People's Republic of China Presentation: Marek Chodkiewicz 21 Economic Issues

Economic Issues:

Economic Issues China is highly likely to continue swapping the Yuan currency with neighboring countries in order to: C urb economic slowdown Establish the Yuan as a future international currency 22 The People's Republic of China Presentation: Marek Chodkiewicz

Discussion:

Discussion Currency Swaps ( Short-Run ) Improving bilateral trade A llowi ng the Chinese economy to alleviate its ailing export sector Exports comprise 40 percent Currency Swaps (Long-Run) Will provid e a secure position when the world economy recovers 23 The People's Republic of China Presentation: Marek Chodkiewicz

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The People's Republic of China Presentation: Marek Chodkiewicz 24 Environmental Issues

Environmental issues:

Environmental issues China highly unlikely to introduce any significant changes in the country’s environmental policies Due to: fears of severe socio-economic consequences. Despite: long-term implications on populace’s health ( 750,000 deaths each year ) economic externalities ( costs associated with pollution USD 200 billion ) 25 The People's Republic of China Presentation: Marek Chodkiewicz

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The People's Republic of China Presentation: Marek Chodkiewicz 26 Government Issues

Government Issues:

Government Issues China is likely to face an increase in social unrest during the next 6-12 months due to : The rammifications long-term exponential economic growth G lobal economic crisis . Increase in unemployment 27 The People's Republic of China Presentation: Marek Chodkiewicz

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28 The People's Republic of China Presentation: Marek Chodkiewicz

Conslusions and Analytical Confidence:

Conslusions and Analytical Confidence China Outlook 2009-10 H1N1 unlikely to severely impact the stability of the People’s Republic of China during the next 6-12 months Due to: Low fatality rates Threats to Analysis : Virus Mutation 29 The People's Republic of China Presentation: Marek Chodkiewicz

Analytical Confidence (medium, 5.7):

Analytical Confidence (medium, 5.7) S ource reliability ranges from low to high Li ttle conflict among sources A nalyst had low expertise W orked alone U se d structured analytic methods once The research was complex Deadline was easy to meet The People's Republic of China Presentation: Marek Chodkiewicz 30

Questions and Answers :

The People's Republic of China Presentation: Marek Chodkiewicz 31 Questions and Answers

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