man power demand forecasting methods

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MANPOWER DEMAND AND SUPPLY FORECASTING:

MANPOWER DEMAND AND SUPPLY FORECASTING

Contents::

Contents : Unit-2: Man power forecasting Models and techniques of man power demand and supply forecasting Behavioral factors in HRP Wastage analysis Retention Redeployment and exit strategies

HUMAN RESOURCE PLANNING:

HUMAN RESOURCE PLANNING HRP is a process by which organization can move from its current manpower position to desired man power position. Strategy for acquisition, utilisation,improvement and retention of human resources.

MANPOWER FORECASTING:

MANPOWER FORECASTING Analyses the future manpower requirements of a company based on its future business plans, key workload drivers of the business, budget constrains and productivity enablers.

MANPOWER FORECASTING:

MANPOWER FORECASTING Timescale of Human resource forecasts the availability and chart the possible action to meet the requirement. Forecasts are made based on demand supply analysis, internal availability, external availability, employment practices etc.,

METHODS OF DEMAND FORECASTING:

METHODS OF DEMAND FORECASTING Choice of the technique depends on the timeframe, size of the organization and the level at which the employees have to be brought into the organization. This includes number of employees, type of skills, productivity rates to perform effectively.

METHODS OF DEMAND FORECASTING:

METHODS OF DEMAND FORECASTING BOTTOM UP TECHNIQUE DELPHI TECHNIQUE NOMINAL GROUP TECHNIQUE RATIO ANALYSIS SIMPLE LINEAR REGRESSION ANALYSIS MULTIPLE LINEAR REGGRESSION ANALYSIS STOCHASTIC METHOD

BOTTOM UP TECHNIQUE :

BOTTOM UP TECHNIQUE Starts from lowest level and progresses upwards. Department managers periodically projects their workforce requirement keeping in mind productivity levels, market demands, sales forecast and mobility of the staff in the department.

DELPHI TECHNIQUE :

DELPHI TECHNIQUE To predict the future developments in a particular area, by integrating the judgments and opinions provided independently by many experts. Experts both within or outside the organization presenting their forecasts to other experts without physically meeting them. Good for short duration forecasts .

NOMINAL GROUP TECHNIQUE :

NOMINAL GROUP TECHNIQUE The experts sit together to make forecasts. Forecasts are transferred to a large sheet and displayed to all the experts. This helps in attaining good results.

RATIO ANALYSIS :

RATIO ANALYSIS Comparing the number of employees to a workload index. It does not take into account the technological development, local conditions or other variables that may be detrimental to productivity.

SIMPLE LINEAR REGRESSION ANALYSIS: :

SIMPLE LINEAR REGRESSION ANALYSIS: Simplest statistical technique Projects the future demand based on the past relationship with the workforce level and basic factor on whom the demand is assumed to depend.

MULTIPLE LINEAR REGRESSION ANALYSIS :

MULTIPLE LINEAR REGRESSION ANALYSIS Deals with number of factors on which demand is based. Estimates various characteristics of the workforce in order to derive the number required to fill the output projected.

STOCHASTIC METHOD :

STOCHASTIC METHOD A significant statistical method used in projecting the human needs. Deals with both certain and unpredictable variables.

MAJOR CONSIDERATIONS IN FORECASTING:

MAJOR CONSIDERATIONS IN FORECASTING Absenteeism: Unauthorized absence from work. These could be classified as individual, organizational and environmental factors. Absenteeism rate= Unauthorized absence *100 Man-shifts actually worked

Retirements:

Retirements Manning tables are used to know the employees retiring during the plan period so that their replacements can be found. Succession planning Process that ensures that a qualified person is available to assume the position once it is made vacant.

Technology Up gradation :

Technology Up gradation Organizations started upgrading technology to keep up with the changes taking place. It has impact on the quality and quantity of the people to be employed.

SUPPLY SOURCES:

SUPPLY SOURCES INTERNAL SUPPLY EXTERNAL SUPPLY Employment exchange Employment agencies Professional association Campus recruitment

WASTAGE ANAYISIS METHODS:

WASTAGE ANAYISIS METHODS

Introduction:

Introduction Manpower wastage is an element of labour turnover. It includes voluntary retirement, normal retirement ,resignations, deaths and dismissals. Marginal recruitment decisions without wastage analysis may lead to inaccuracies in HRP.

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LEVERS WEEKS TIME MONTHS/YEARS Induction crisis Differential Transit Settled connection LEVERS INDUCTION CRISIS DIFFERENTIAL TRANSIT SETTLED CONNECTION WEEKS TIME

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` Curve identifies three phases Induction phase : During this phase marginal employees leave Differential transit period : An employee learns about the organization and identifies his role in it. Settled connection : Employee settles down and stay long.

Important variables of wastage analysis:

Important variables of wastage analysis Skill exercises and age of the employees decreases the wastage. Wastage is more in female employees then in male employees.

Important variables of wastage analysis:

Important variables of wastage analysis Wastage varies with the level of the employment and also exhibits seasonal changes. Working conditions and size of the firm.

Different Methods of Wastage Analysis:

Different Methods of Wastage Analysis Labour Turnover Index Stability Index Cohort Analysis Census Analysis Skills Inventories

Labour Turnover Index :

Labour Turnover Index Indicates number of leavers as percentage to average number of employees. Average number of employees employed in a given time period is decided by adding the employees at the beginning and end and then dividing the same by two.

Labour Turnover Index:

Labour Turnover Index Labour Turnover= Number of employees leaving/ Average no. of employees employed

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Stability Index Indicates stable work force percentage for a given period and can be computed as under No. with more than 1 year service now * 100 Total employed one year ago

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Cohort Analysis: Cohort means homogeneous groups. Length of the service is an important variable of wastage analysis. Eliminates the defect of labour turnover index. More accurate for a small homogenous group.

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Changing social and economic conditions can invalidate this analysis Number remaining at a given time * 100 Number engaged at the start

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Census analysis : Major deficiencies of cohort analysis is that it holds good for a small homogenous group. Census analysis can eliminate this problem taking into account a cross-section of the organization.

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Census analysis requires three sets of data as under: The number of employees at the beginning of the census The number of employees at the end of the census The number of leavers during the census period.

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Skill inventories: Maintain skills inventory containing various information about individuals and their suitability for different jobs to access Internal manpower supply.

BEHAVIORAL FACTORS IN HRP:

BEHAVIORAL FACTORS IN HRP

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In order to hire, train and retain quality employees and prepare future workforce requirements, human resource planning must strive to understand certain behavioral differences.

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Personality: A person's extroversion/introversion, Conscientiousness, emotionality and overall agreeableness are related to her personality. Many organizations use tools such as personality tests to screen and match job-candidate personalities.

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Attitudes Result of past experiences. Attitudes are difficult to change because they have evolved as a result of a person's environment and past situation. Negative attitudes can take form as criticism, anger, dislike or disdain. Orientations, training programs and recognition programs such as rewards, promotions and raises focus on experiences that keep employee attitudes positive.

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Values Values refer to needs, wants, interests, moral obligations, likes and dislikes. Values are often learned and can be subjective (good or bad). By pairing employee values to that of the organization, strategic objectives are better achieved.

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Perceptions Employee perception relates to attitude in that it is the result of past experience. Perception takes information from various senses and combines it with a person's needs, past experience and expectations. Human resource planning must continue to attract and retain workers by keeping an affirmative perception.

REDEPLOYMENT:

REDEPLOYMENT Redeployment occurs When an employee can no longer occupy a position for no fault of her or his own Where the employer has a responsibility to help the employee find alternate employment either internal or external to the organization.

EXIT STRATEGIES:

EXIT STRATEGIES Whenever an employee leaves an organization it constitutes the exit of that employee from the organization. The present day organization are aware of the importance of retaining their human resources. The most important and widely used strategy is conducting the exit interview with the outgoing employee.

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An exit interview should focus on identifying the reasons behind the exit of an employee and also inquire if the level of performance of the organization or if the unfulfilled expectations of the employee are involved.

EXIT INTERVIEW:

EXIT INTERVIEW It is an important part of human resource management and helps in employee satisfaction and retention. Understanding the reasons behind the exit of an employee helps in preventing the future loss of employees. Focuses on the employment environment and its impact on productivity and morale.

OBJECTIVES OF EXIT INTERVIEW:

OBJECTIVES OF EXIT INTERVIEW Exit interview is held in the implementation of correct HR practices in the organization and also provide information about the ways to improve the recruitment process in future.

OBJECTIVES OF EXIT INTERVIEW:

OBJECTIVES OF EXIT INTERVIEW Opportunity to make peace with an employee who might otherwise leave the organization with vengeful intentions.

OBJECTIVES OF EXIT INTERVIEW:

OBJECTIVES OF EXIT INTERVIEW Exit interview give a chance to retain an employee who would have otherwise left the organization due to a minor misunderstanding.

Employee Retention:

Employee Retention

Employee Retention ::

Employee Retention : Employee retention refers to the various policies and practices which let the employees stick to an organization for a longer period of time.

Reasons for employees leave::

Reasons for employees leave: O ut of frustration , C onstant friction with their superiors or other team members, L ow salary, Lack of growth prospects and M otivation compel an employee to look for a change.

Need & Importance of Employee Retention: :

Need & Importance of Employee Retention: Hiring is not an easy process An organization invests time and money in grooming an individual and make him ready to work and understand the corporate culture. When an individual resigns from his present organization, it is more likely that he would join the competitors.

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The employees working for a longer period of time are more familiar with the company’s policies, guidelines and thus they adjust better. Every individual needs time to adjust with others. It has been observed that individuals sticking to an organization for a longer span are more loyal towards the management and the organization. It is essential for the organization to retain the valuable employees showing potential..

Strategies to retain an individual::

Strategies to retain an individual: The responsibilities must be delegated according to the individual’s specialization and interests . Conflicts must be avoided to maintain the decorum of the place and avoid spreading negativity around . The human resource department must ensure that it is hiring the right candidate.

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Employee recognition is one of the most important factors which go a long way in retaining employees. Performance appraisals are also important for an employee to stay motivated and avoid looking for a change. The company’s rules and regulations should be made to benefit the employees.

Important role played by supervisors in Employee retention::

Important role played by supervisors in E mployee retention: The team members must be assigned responsibilities as per their specialization, qualification, interests as well as experience. An over burdened worker never finds his job interesting and would always be eager for a change. Rules and regulations should be same for everyone.

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One should never fear his boss. Hitler approach does not work in the current scenario. The superiors must maintain transparency in communication . The team leader must appreciate those who perform well. A team leader should mentor his team well.

How to retain the talent drain?:

How to retain the talent drain? Work should never become monotonous and must offer a new learning each day. Every individual should enjoy privacy at the workplace. The seniors must be reachable to their subordinates in case of queries. Every employee should be treated as one irrespective of his designation.

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Discipline is a must at the workplace. Incentives, cash prizes, trophies, perks should be given to deserving employees to motivate them to perform up to the mark every time. The performers must be made to participate in the decision making process. The management must formulate employee friendly policies.

Effects of poor employee retention: :

Effects of poor employee retention: Every organization invests its time and money in training a new joinee to bring him at par with the existing employees. Employees who spend a considerable amount of time in any organization know it in and out and thus can perform better. Employees working with an organization for a long time never badmouth it and are somewhat emotionally attached to it.

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When individuals leave any organization, they are more likely to join the competitors. An organization can’t perform well if the employees speak negative about it Individuals who have the habit of changing jobs frequently never get attached to any particular organization.

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