AUSTRALIAN ENERGY SUMMITIIR ConferencesSydney, March 2005: AUSTRALIAN ENERGY SUMMIT IIR Conferences Sydney, March 2005 Keynote Address: World Energy Market Developments and Their Impact on Australia Robert Pritchard ResourcesLaw International


ResourcesLaw: What We Do (1): ResourcesLaw: What We Do (1) We work on policy, strategy, opportunities, transactions and risks across the energy sector and the dynamics of the interplay of these issues on investment decisions Half of our work is offshore, half of it onshore Half of our clients are public sector, half of them private


ResourcesLaw: What We Do (2): ResourcesLaw: What We Do (2) Our practice covers all energy forms: oil, gas, coal, nuclear, hydro, biomass, wind and solar We factor sustainability and climate risk into all of our thinking We maintain extensive international networks through the World Energy Council and other affiliations We are affiliated with the Piper Alderman law firm, with offices in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Adelaide


The Four Energy Gods: The Four Energy Gods Monopolus Competitus Regulatus Sustainabus


The 3 Current “Big Picture” Issues in World Energy: The 3 Current “Big Picture” Issues in World Energy Energy Security Climate Change Growing Energy Demand


The First “Big Picture” Issue in World Energy: Energy Security: The First “Big Picture” Issue in World Energy: Energy Security


Main Causes of Energy Supply Insecurity: Main Causes of Energy Supply Insecurity Over-dependence on any single form of primary energy Over-dependence on any single source Over-dependence on any single energy infrastructure facility NOT a shortage of resources!


The Myths of “Peak Oil” and Peak Other Fossil Fuels: The Myths of “Peak Oil” and Peak Other Fossil Fuels Reserves-to-Production Ratios Oil: 41 years Gas: 67 years Coal: 192 years Source of data and graphs in this presentation: BP Statistical Review 2004


Oil Reserves-to-Production (R/P) ratios: Oil Reserves-to-Production (R/P) ratios


Natural Gas Reserves-to-Production (R/P) ratios : Natural Gas Reserves-to-Production (R/P) ratios


Where Are the Energy Security Risks?: Where Are the Energy Security Risks? Increasing reliance on imports of oil, largely driven by demand from US and China Increasing dependence on Middle East Doubts about production capacity Decreasing value of IEA emergency stockpiling system Transport fuels are 95% dependent on oil


Where Are the Energy Security Risks? (contd): Where Are the Energy Security Risks? (contd) Increasing dependence on reliability of transportation and storage infrastructure Terrorism / maritime terrorism (especially in Strait of Malacca) Modern emphasis on efficient use of capital / “just-in time” management of inventory costs (NB: this is a self-imposed risk)


Slide13: The Second “Big Picture” Issue in World Energy: Climate Change


Conclusions of World Energy Congress, Sydney 2004: Conclusions of World Energy Congress, Sydney 2004 The “new renewables” will be inadequate* * Wind power is the star performer and recently achieved 47,000 MW worldwide installed capacity. However, the WEC 2003 Survey of Energy Resources predicts that the new renewables will only have achieved a total share of primary energy of 5% by 2030.


Conclusions of World Energy Congress, Sydney 2004 (contd): Kyoto will not have a material effect on emissions reduction All energy options must be kept open and no technology should be idolised or demonised Conclusions of World Energy Congress, Sydney 2004 (contd)


The Third “Big Picture” Issue in World Energy: High Energy Prices: The Third “Big Picture” Issue in World Energy: High Energy Prices


Effect of High Prices: Effect of High Prices In 2004/05, the price hike has been very much demand-driven (mainly the US and China) Since 1973, every sustained oil price hike has lowered global GDP growth and reduced energy intensity for the following 2 years


Slide18: Source: WEC


Effect of High Prices (contd): Current high prices are a spur to cross-border coal and gas trade (especially LNG trade) Nonetheless, there is nothing to prevent an energy price-induced economic recession - this is not yet predicted but it is not entirely fanciful to imagine one either Effect of High Prices (contd)


How is Our Part of the World Organising its Response to the 3 “Big Picture” Issues in World Energy?: How is Our Part of the World Organising its Response to the 3 “Big Picture” Issues in World Energy? OPEC (Indonesia will have to quit) IEA (stockpiling only a temporary solution) IEF (new producer-consumer dialogue) APEC Energy Security Initiative (emphasis on expanding LNG trade but nuclear power also back on the agenda)


How is Our Part of the World Organising its Response …? (contd): ASEAN Energy Cooperation (“ASEAN Vision 2020” and the second 5-year energy plan) ASEAN + 3 (includes China, Japan and Korea) ASEAN + 3 + 2 others (includes Australia and New Zealand) How is Our Part of the World Organising its Response …? (contd)


How Should Australia as a Nation Respond to the 3 “Big Picture” Issues in World Energy?: How Should Australia as a Nation Respond to the 3 “Big Picture” Issues in World Energy? Reaffirm our commitment to open global energy markets Adopt a diversified portfolio of interchangeable energy forms and energy supply sources Increase interconnection of energy systems


How Should Australia as a Nation Respond …? (contd): How Should Australia as a Nation Respond …? (contd) 4. Encourage timely investment in energy production, transportation and storage facilities Note: An ABARE/ResourcesLaw International study for the APEC Energy Working Group on the costs of energy supply disruptions will be released in May 2005


Finally, How Should Australian Businesses Respond?: Finally, How Should Australian Businesses Respond? Don’t rely on financial hedges Consider investment in inventory - weigh up the possible cost of being caught short against the actual cost of the sunk capital Look at alternatives (dash for gas, look at renewables and practice DSM) Prepare your contingency plans for a possible oil price-induced recession If you are an exporter of energy, lock in your markets for as long as you can