Morin Lunar Industrialization SRR6

ROCKS TO ROBOTS: A BIOLOGICAL GROWTH APPROACH TO RAPID LUNAR INDUSTRIALIZATIONORHOW TO REALIZE VON NEUMANN’S VISION: 

ROCKS TO ROBOTS: A BIOLOGICAL GROWTH APPROACH TO RAPID LUNAR INDUSTRIALIZATION OR HOW TO REALIZE VON NEUMANN’S VISION L. M. E. Morin Deputy Assistant Secretary for Health, Space, and Science United States Department of State, Washington, DC morinlm@state.gov

Dreams of Space - Children’s Space Art: John Sisson : 

Dreams of Space - Children’s Space Art: John Sisson "It is difficult to say what is impossible, for the dream of yesterday is the hope of today and the reality of tomorrow" Robert Goddard, 1927. "The younger generation of rocket engineers is just beginning. They are of the new generation to which space travel is not going to be a dream of the future but an everyday job with everyday worries in which they will be engaged" Willy Ley, 1951. "The visions we offer our children shape the future. It matters what those visions are. Often they become self-fulfilling prophecies. Dreams are maps" Carl Sagan, 1994. "Soon there will be no one who remembers when spaceflight was still a dream, the reverie of reclusive boys and the vision of a handful of men" Wyn Wachhorst, 1995. http://sun3.lib.uci.edu/~jsisson/john.htm

US Lab Destiny: 14,000 kg: 

US Lab Destiny: 14,000 kg

ISS at Mission 5A: 101,600 kg: 

ISS at Mission 5A: 101,600 kg

Caterpillar Model 330C LHydraulic Excavator – 35,100 kg: 

Caterpillar Model 330C L Hydraulic Excavator – 35,100 kg

Lunar Reality – Apollo: 6900 kg: 

Lunar Reality – Apollo: 6900 kg

Saturn: 

Saturn

Slide20: 

Atlas

Kg to LEO for Launch Systems: 

Kg to LEO for Launch Systems http://space.skyrocket.de/:

Slide22: 

You can deliver about 10% of the LEO mass to the lunar surface (one-way) The mass you can deliver with COTS launch systems is on the order of 1000 kg

Apollo 11 Mass Loss During Launch (pounds): 

Apollo 11 Mass Loss During Launch (pounds) From NASA Apollo 11 Press Kit

Mo = Mf * exp(Delta_V/(Isp * g)): 

Mo = Mf * exp(Delta_V/(Isp * g)) Imprisoned by the tyranny of the rocket equation, an unfavorable exponential… There is an antidote…

Compound Interest!: 

Compound Interest! P = C exp( rt ) Here the exponential is working in our favor instead of against us Biological systems exploit this

Biological Growth: 

Biological Growth

Biological Growth Plot: 

Biological Growth Plot

Biological Growth – Log Plot: 

Biological Growth – Log Plot

Von Neumann with the first Institute computer: 

Von Neumann with the first Institute computer Photograph by Alan Richards, courtesy of the Archives of the Institute for Advanced Study http://www-groups.dcs.st-andrews.ac.uk/~history/PictDisplay/Von_Neumann.html

Self Replicating Factory: 

Self Replicating Factory Robert A. Freitas, Jr. and William P. Gilbreath Proceedings of the 1980 NASA/ASEE Summer Study NASA Conference Publication 2255 -http://www.islandone.org/MMSG/aasm/chapter5.htm

Ingredients for Self Replication: 

Ingredients for Self Replication Energy (In situ solar systems) Raw Material (Regolith and minerals) “Information” (Telepresence/Autonomy) Enough machinery to get started Critical “nutrients” (Resupply from earth)

Bacteria – Close Up: 

Bacteria – Close Up http://www.ucmp.berkeley.edu/bacteria/bacteriatem.gif

Machinery to get started: 

Machinery to get started Bacteria need ~10 picograms Can we get by with ~1000 kg? Solar power Telepresence and mining Iron reduction and ceramics Fabrication and assembly, largely with iron Produce more telepresence and mining A spiral plan to eliminate earth dependencies

Initial Production: 

Initial Production Focus on iron reduction Most versatile metal Easiest to get energetically Exploit magnetic properties Defer oxygen to a later spiral Work on kilogram-kilowatt scales Apply casting, powder metallurgy, rolling, light machining, dies, jigs and fixtures Produce standardized parts – plates, fasteners, chain, sprockets, gears, solenoids, struts…

Assemble and Spiral: 

Assemble and Spiral Assemble kits of parts with telepresence Cameras and electronics from Earth Strive for lunar content everywhere else Produce more mining and telepresence capability to realize “compound interest” Re-supply missions provide critical items you can’t make yet in-situ Spiral up to larger scales and masses Access more elements Reduce telepresence per kilogram Diversify to specialized niche production facilities Gain and apply pragmatic experience to eliminate Earth dependencies

Telepresence: 

Telepresence Abundant telepresence is critical Enables biological growth rates Provides flexibility to overcome obstacles Allows re-direction of emerging industrial base to any desired application Has tremendous intangibles: outreach, commercialization, internationalization, entrepreneur and public participation

Bottom Line: 

Bottom Line We have to master ISRU if we want more than a transient presence in space Let’s devise an ISRU strategy scaled to launch vehicles that are available now at funding levels we can get If our 1000 kg “seed” can replicate 114 grams an hour, it doubles every year… The seed becomes a million kilograms of lunar industrial capability after ten years…

Biological Growth – Log Plot: 

Biological Growth – Log Plot

Credits: 

Credits Dreams of Space - Children’s Space Art: John Sisson http://sun3.lib.uci.edu/~jsisson/john.htm Biological Growth: Dr. Alan Cann http://www-micro.msb.le.ac.uk/LabWork Bacteria Close-Up http://www.ucmp.berkeley.edu/bacteria/bacteriatem.gif Self Replicating Systems Robert A. Freitas, Jr. and William P. Gilbreath Proceedings of the 1980 NASA/ASEE Summer Study NASA Conference Publication 2255 -http://www.islandone.org/MMSG/aasm/chapter5.htm

LM-5 (flown on the Apollo 11) mission weight breakdown: 

LM-5 (flown on the Apollo 11) mission weight breakdown

Bacterium: 

Bacterium NY State Dept of Health http://www.wadsworth.org/databank/ecoli.htm

Complexity of self replicating systems (bits): 

Complexity of self replicating systems (bits) From: Nanotechnology by Dr. Ralph Merkle http://www.zyvex.com/nanotech/selfRep.html