Slide1: Observations on Modeling & Simulation By: Bernie Grover President The James B. Grover Consulting Corporation To: The DND SMARTS VISION Workshop Ottawa, 16 June 2004


Modeling & Simulation. The Contractor Perspective: Modeling & Simulation. The Contractor Perspective Play-Doh Invented 1956 Over 700 million pounds sold to date Noah McVicar, inventor Became millionaire before 27


Slide3: A Boeing pilot flies the Joint Strike Fighter Full Mission Simulator in St. Louis, in 2000, a decade before deliveries begins, and several decades before DND deliveries begin. Photo: Boeing News Release 21 June 2000 Modeling & Simulation. The DND Perspective


ARCHIMEDES OF SYRACUSE (fl. 287-212 BC) : ARCHIMEDES OF SYRACUSE (fl. 287-212 BC) Mathematically modeled CRANES (or 'claws') that lifted enemy ships out of the water and dashed them against the rocks, CATAPULTS of every size and description that hurled bolts and stones varying distances, and MIRRORS that focused sunlight on the ships and set them alight.


Chiu Chang Suan Shu), or The Arithmetic in Nine Sections : Chiu Chang Suan Shu), or The Arithmetic in Nine Sections Section 8. Fang Chi'eng (Calculating by Tabulation) Solution of systems of simultaneous linear equations The most well known and influential Chinese mathematical text, dated to the Han Dynasty (200 BC – 220AD) The opening of Section 1 (surveying methods)


De Re Militari(The Military Institutions of the Romans)  Flavius Vegetius Renatus 390 AD: De Re Militari (The Military Institutions of the Romans) Flavius Vegetius Renatus 390 AD Translated from the Latin by Lieutenant John Clarke Text written in 390 A.D. British translation published in 1767. Copyright Expired This is an invention of the greatest use, not only to soldiers, but also to gladiators. No man of either profession ever distinguished himself in the circus or field of battle, who was not perfect in this kind of exercise. Every soldier, therefore, fixed a post firmly in the ground, about the height of six feet. Against this, as against a real enemy, the recruit was exercised with the above mentioned arms, as it were with the common shield and sword, sometimes aiming at the head or face, sometimes at the sides, at others endeavoring to strike at the thighs or legs. He was instructed in what manner to advance and retire, and in short how to take every advantage of his adversary; but was thus above all particularly cautioned not to lay himself open to his antagonist while aiming his stroke at him. THE POST EXERCISE We are informed by the writings of the ancients that, among their other exercises, they had that of the post. They gave their recruits round bucklers woven with willows, twice as heavy as those used on real service, and wooden swords double the weight of the common ones. They exercised them with these at the post both morning and afternoon.


THE POST EXERCISE (i.e. the training simulator): THE POST EXERCISE (i.e. the training simulator) Simulated a real enemy Minimized cost Minimized risk to the soldier Adaptable / flexible All that was missing was the defense contractor selling the concept, the post, and the instructor……


April 9, 1241 Battle of Liegnitz : April 9, 1241 Battle of Liegnitz Duke Henry II of Silesia 30,000 Polish knights, Teutonic Knights, French Knights Templar, plus foot soldiers A Tartar army had recently routed a force of Poles and Slavs under his cousin Boleslav V and burned Kraków on Palm Sunday Kaidu, great-grandson of Genghis Khan. 20,000 Mongols, fresh from victories over the other Polish armies


Model the Battle: Train For Victory -- Poles: Model the Battle: Train For Victory -- Poles Heavy cavalry Broad swords & lances Heavy armour Informally organized Leaders by birth Led in person from the front Army on army frontal assault


Slide10: Model the Battle: Train For Victory -- Mongols Light cavalry Hi tech bows No armour Formal formations Leaders by merit Commanders dispersed Silent flag signals Feint, retreat, ambush


Slide11: 25,000 of the 30,000 member Polish Force killed Every Knight Templar killed Mongols collected nine sacks of ears The Outcome


Model the Battle: Train For Victory United States Joint Chiefs of Staff 1988: Operations Plan 4102. Top secret EUCOM plan to defend Germany Model the Battle: Train For Victory United States Joint Chiefs of Staff 1988 Underlying Op Plan 4102 and related plans was the assumption that the US defense industrial base, including Canada, could meet the war fighters’ requirements.


Global War Games  US Naval War College: Global War Games US Naval War College NWC is recognized as the world leader in war gaming Started playing in 1887 50 games per year Global is their top game Global War Games series in late 1980s Invited industry & defense industrial planners to play Industry could not meet defense requirements The JCS planning model was as wrong in 1988 as the Polish Duke Henry’s was in 1241


Global War Games July 1990: Global War Games July 1990 Scenario: Iraq invades Kuwait Develop a response 750 players from US military, departments, agencies Plus: ex-KGB, UK, Cda Game Responses Diplomatic Economic International Russian cooperation Military build-up Invasion GNN CNN Model morphed into reality


Iraq Invades Kuwait August 1990: Actual Responses Diplomatic Economic International Russian cooperation Military build-up Invasion What We Missed In the War Games: The Personal Dimension President Bush, ex Director of CIA Secretary of State James Baker, ex White House Chief of Staff, Bush campaign manager Secretary of Defense Dick Cheney, ex White House Chief of Staff, 5-term Congressman Chairman JCS General Colin Powell , ex National Security Advisor National Security Advisor retired LGen Brent Scowcroft, ex NS advisor to Pres Ford, military assistant to Pres Nixon, VP Kissinger Associates General Shwarzkoph, implementing Powell’s war plan for invasion of Kuwait Iraq Invades Kuwait August 1990


The Personal Dimension and Other Stochastic Elements: The Modelers’ Dilemma: The Personal Dimension and Other Stochastic Elements: The Modelers’ Dilemma Acquisition Projects Boeing 707 (CC-137) Airbus A 310 (CC-150 Polaris) Mobile gun system Bell Textron 412s (CH146 Griffon) Light armoured vehicles Bombardier Challenger aircraft Mercedes G-wagens (LUVW) Maritime helicopter project In each of these DND cases, M&S had little or no relevance to what was purchased, why it was purchased, or when it was purchased….. But lots of relevance to how what was acquired might be used.


Slide17: HMS Mary Rose: 19th July 1545 1 ¼ miles from Portsmouth Harbour In front of King Henry VIII and his entourage Wind filled the sails The ship capsized and sank Drowning the +/- 600 member crew


Royal War Ship Wasa August 10, 1628 : Royal War Ship Wasa August 10, 1628 On maiden voyage In front of hundreds of spectators A small wind filled its sails The ship capsized Many drowned In Stockholm Harbour In front of all Woe was Wasa


The Mary Rose, Wasa, Modeling, & Simulation: The Mary Rose, Wasa, Modeling, & Simulation Model © 1997 The Wooden Boatshop, 129 Hotham Road, Sorrento, Victoria, Australia. 3943 The physical half-model method of design


The Mary Rose, Wasa, Modeling, & Simulation: The Mary Rose, Wasa, Modeling, & Simulation The mathematical modeling method of ship design and stability Enter Fredrik Henrik Chapman, born in Gothenburg, Sweden September 9, 1721. Wrote Architectura Navalis Mercatoria in 1765 Expanded the work of Bouguer’s Traite du Navire (written in the Peruvian alps), and L. Euler (a Swiss who worked in Russia) Permitted “what if” simulation in a virtual environment Model © 1997 The Wooden Boatshop, 129 Hotham Road, Sorrento, Victoria, Australia. 3943 The physical half-model method of design


Slide21: Example of horizontal keel, sloping waterlines. English smack for flatfish (Fishing Vessels) Chapman’s Modeling & Simulation: 1765 From: Chapman's Architectura Navalis Mercatoria, Pl LIX #3:


Cunard’s Modeling & Simulation 1998: Cunard’s Modeling & Simulation 1998


Vimy Ridge, April 1917Map fragment showing the 11th Canadian Infantry Brigade boundaries, objectives and strong points: Vimy Ridge, April 1917 Map fragment showing the 11th Canadian Infantry Brigade boundaries, objectives and strong points Source: Canadian War Museum


                                                                 Moehne dam after the raid :                                                                  Moehne dam after the raid M&S in WW II In 1942, Dr Barnes Wallis 1942. Dr Barnes Wallis and his idea of a spinning, bouncing, cylindrical bomb. Mathematical models Physical models Simulation flights The real thing Source: The Dam Busters, 1955 Most Important WWII M&S Event Development of Operations Research


Modeling, Simulation, and Transformation: Modeling, Simulation, and Transformation TORA BORA, Afghanistan Dec 21,2001 USAF, USN pilots flew Operation Enduring Freedom missions hundreds of time before ever arriving in theatre. Transformation was on fronts: Mission simulation (Tools) Unconventional use of assets (Thinking) Photo: US DoD


The Evolution of M&S: The Evolution of M&S Archimedes 210 BC Chapman 1765 British OR WWII New tools 2004


General Conclusions: General Conclusions M&S, with its 5,000 year track record, is a proven tool in both defence management and military operations It has potential to continue to contribute It is not a panacea It must be applied on a business case basis Some of it should be coordinated Department & CF wide Your challenge: Do you have the “Thinking” to exploit the new “Tools”


Cautions: Cautions For DND Investments in M&S must be: Relevant Affordable Timely Practical Based on valid assumptions Non-duplicative For Industry DND opportunities will continue to grow, but: Will be driven by the user, not the centre M&S budgets will be constrained, even when it is cost effective to proceed There must be a pay-off for the user There will be few opportunities for “nice-to-haves”.


Slide29: Finally……. TEWTs & PEWCs Even in the absence of real money, some things are still possible