logging in or signing up Demand Forecasting laroiya Download Post to : URL : Related Presentations : Share Add to Flag Embed Email Send to Blogs and Networks Add to Channel Uploaded from authorPOINT lite Insert YouTube videos in PowerPont slides with aS Desktop Copy embed code: (To copy code, click on the text box) Embed: URL: Thumbnail: WordPress Embed Customize Embed The presentation is successfully added In Your Favorites. Views: 14405 Category: Education License: All Rights Reserved Like it (11) Dislike it (0) Added: August 01, 2008 This Presentation is Public Favorites: 9 Presentation Description introduction to the methods of estimating demand Comments Posting comment... By: AKON1 (7 month(s) ago) awesome Saving..... Post Reply Close Saving..... Edit Comment Close By: vipin2187 (12 month(s) ago) allow me to download this ppt Saving..... Post Reply Close Saving..... Edit Comment Close By: shansntosh (26 month(s) ago) can u mail this ppt on shansntosh@gmail.com Saving..... Post Reply Close Saving..... Edit Comment Close By: cool.prashant1990 (31 month(s) ago) how to download this file Saving..... Post Reply Close Saving..... Edit Comment Close Premium member Presentation Transcript DEMAND FORECASTING : DEMAND FORECASTING DR.SK LAROIYA Slide 2: ESTIMATION OF DEMAND FOR A PRODUCT IN A FORECAST YEAR/ PERIOD IS TERMED EX-ANTE FORECASTS EX-POST FORECASTS FORECAST FRAMEWORK : FORECAST FRAMEWORK HOW FAR AHEAD? SHORT TERM OR LONG TERM FORECAST? AT FIRM’S LEVEL AT INDUSTRY’S LEVEL FOR MARKET SEGMENT FOR TOTAL MARKET Slide 4: ACTIVE FORECAST PASSIVE FORECAST FOR A NEW PRODUCT FOR A N ESTABLISHED PRODUCT WHY DEMAND FORECAST : WHY DEMAND FORECAST GENERAL PURPOSE: MARKET IS DYNAMIC , COMPETITIVE AND VOLATILE BETTER PLANNING AND ALLOCATION OF RESOURCES Slide 6: SPECIFIC PURPOSES: APPROPRIATE PRODUCTION SCHEDULING INVENTORY CONTROL DETERMINING APPROPRIATE PRICING POLICIES SETTING SALES TARGETS AND ESTABLISHING CONTROLS AND INCENTIVES Slide 7: PLANNING NEW UNIT OR EXPANDING THE EXISTING ONE PLANNING LONG TERM FINANCIAL REQUIREMENTS PLANNING HRD STRATEGIES METHODS OF DEMAND FORECASTING : METHODS OF DEMAND FORECASTING SURVEY OF BUYERS’ INTENTIONS CONSUMER GOODS PRODUCER GOODS ( END USE METHOD) MIX GOODS Slide 9: EXPERTS’ OPINION METHOD SIMPLE OR WEIGHTED AVERAGE OF NUMBERS GIVEN BY VARIOUS EXPERTS TO ARRIVE AT NEEDED FORECAST DELPHI METHOD Slide 10: MARKET EXPERIMENT METHOD ACTUAL EXPERIMENT MARKET SIMULATION METHOD ( LAB. EXPERIMENT TECHNIQUE) Slide 11: TREND PROJECTION METHOD: Slide 12: SMOOTHING METHOD: IF THE VARIABLE UNDER FORECAST DOES NOT FOLLOW ANY SPECIFIC TREND – UPWARD OR DOWNWARD- TREND PROJECTION METHOD IS INAPPROPRIATE Slide 13: IN SUCH A SITUATION SMOOTHING METHOD IS MORE USEFUL SIMPLE SMOOTHING WEIGHTED SMOOTHING EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING Slide 14: SIMPLE SMOOTHING: SIMPLE AVERAGE OF SPECIFIC OBSERVATION (CALLED ORDER) Slide 15: WEIGHTED SMOOTHING: WEIGHTED AVERAGE: AS RECENT OBSERVATIONS ARE MORE RELEVANT THAN THE OLDER ONES FOR ESTIMATING FUTURE DEMAND, WEIGHTED SMOOTHING IS PREFERRED TO SIMPLE SMOOTHING Slide 16: WEIGHTS ARE ASSIGNED IN A DESCENDING ORDER AS ONE GOES FROM CURRENT OBSERVATION TO PAST ONES Slide 17: EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING: SINCE IT IS HARD TO DECIDE A PRIORI WEIGHTS, THEY ARE OFTEN ASSUMED TO FOLLOW GEOMETRICAL PROGRESSION a, a(1-a), a(1-a)² ……. WHERE ‘a’ IS WEIGHT ATTACHED TO MOST CURRENT OBSERVATION Slide 18: AND a(1-a), TO ONE PERIOD BACK OBSERVATION AND, a(1-a)² TO TWO PERIOD BACK OBSERVATION AND SO ON THE SUM OF ALL THESE WEIGHTS IS EQUAL TO 1 AND VALUE OF ‘a’ LIES BETWEEN 0 AND 1 Slide 19: WHEN WEIGHTS ARE DESIGNED IN THIS WAY, WEIGHTED SMOOTHING METHOD BECOMES EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING METHOD Slide 20: REGRESSION METHOD: -BIVARIATE -MULTIVARIATE Slide 21: IT INVOLVES FOUR STEPS: IDENTIFICATION OF VARIABLES WHICH INFLUENCE DEMAND FOR THE PRODUCT WHOSE FUNCTION IS UNDER ESTIMATION COLLECTION OF HISTORICAL DATA ON ALL RELEVANT VARIABLES CHOOSING AN APPROPRIATE FORM OF A FUNCTION ESTIMATION OF FUNCTION You do not have the permission to view this presentation. In order to view it, please contact the author of the presentation.
Demand Forecasting laroiya Download Post to : URL : Related Presentations : Share Add to Flag Embed Email Send to Blogs and Networks Add to Channel Uploaded from authorPOINT lite Insert YouTube videos in PowerPont slides with aS Desktop Copy embed code: (To copy code, click on the text box) Embed: URL: Thumbnail: WordPress Embed Customize Embed The presentation is successfully added In Your Favorites. Views: 14405 Category: Education License: All Rights Reserved Like it (11) Dislike it (0) Added: August 01, 2008 This Presentation is Public Favorites: 9 Presentation Description introduction to the methods of estimating demand Comments Posting comment... By: AKON1 (7 month(s) ago) awesome Saving..... Post Reply Close Saving..... Edit Comment Close By: vipin2187 (12 month(s) ago) allow me to download this ppt Saving..... Post Reply Close Saving..... Edit Comment Close By: shansntosh (26 month(s) ago) can u mail this ppt on shansntosh@gmail.com Saving..... Post Reply Close Saving..... Edit Comment Close By: cool.prashant1990 (31 month(s) ago) how to download this file Saving..... Post Reply Close Saving..... Edit Comment Close Premium member Presentation Transcript DEMAND FORECASTING : DEMAND FORECASTING DR.SK LAROIYA Slide 2: ESTIMATION OF DEMAND FOR A PRODUCT IN A FORECAST YEAR/ PERIOD IS TERMED EX-ANTE FORECASTS EX-POST FORECASTS FORECAST FRAMEWORK : FORECAST FRAMEWORK HOW FAR AHEAD? SHORT TERM OR LONG TERM FORECAST? AT FIRM’S LEVEL AT INDUSTRY’S LEVEL FOR MARKET SEGMENT FOR TOTAL MARKET Slide 4: ACTIVE FORECAST PASSIVE FORECAST FOR A NEW PRODUCT FOR A N ESTABLISHED PRODUCT WHY DEMAND FORECAST : WHY DEMAND FORECAST GENERAL PURPOSE: MARKET IS DYNAMIC , COMPETITIVE AND VOLATILE BETTER PLANNING AND ALLOCATION OF RESOURCES Slide 6: SPECIFIC PURPOSES: APPROPRIATE PRODUCTION SCHEDULING INVENTORY CONTROL DETERMINING APPROPRIATE PRICING POLICIES SETTING SALES TARGETS AND ESTABLISHING CONTROLS AND INCENTIVES Slide 7: PLANNING NEW UNIT OR EXPANDING THE EXISTING ONE PLANNING LONG TERM FINANCIAL REQUIREMENTS PLANNING HRD STRATEGIES METHODS OF DEMAND FORECASTING : METHODS OF DEMAND FORECASTING SURVEY OF BUYERS’ INTENTIONS CONSUMER GOODS PRODUCER GOODS ( END USE METHOD) MIX GOODS Slide 9: EXPERTS’ OPINION METHOD SIMPLE OR WEIGHTED AVERAGE OF NUMBERS GIVEN BY VARIOUS EXPERTS TO ARRIVE AT NEEDED FORECAST DELPHI METHOD Slide 10: MARKET EXPERIMENT METHOD ACTUAL EXPERIMENT MARKET SIMULATION METHOD ( LAB. EXPERIMENT TECHNIQUE) Slide 11: TREND PROJECTION METHOD: Slide 12: SMOOTHING METHOD: IF THE VARIABLE UNDER FORECAST DOES NOT FOLLOW ANY SPECIFIC TREND – UPWARD OR DOWNWARD- TREND PROJECTION METHOD IS INAPPROPRIATE Slide 13: IN SUCH A SITUATION SMOOTHING METHOD IS MORE USEFUL SIMPLE SMOOTHING WEIGHTED SMOOTHING EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING Slide 14: SIMPLE SMOOTHING: SIMPLE AVERAGE OF SPECIFIC OBSERVATION (CALLED ORDER) Slide 15: WEIGHTED SMOOTHING: WEIGHTED AVERAGE: AS RECENT OBSERVATIONS ARE MORE RELEVANT THAN THE OLDER ONES FOR ESTIMATING FUTURE DEMAND, WEIGHTED SMOOTHING IS PREFERRED TO SIMPLE SMOOTHING Slide 16: WEIGHTS ARE ASSIGNED IN A DESCENDING ORDER AS ONE GOES FROM CURRENT OBSERVATION TO PAST ONES Slide 17: EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING: SINCE IT IS HARD TO DECIDE A PRIORI WEIGHTS, THEY ARE OFTEN ASSUMED TO FOLLOW GEOMETRICAL PROGRESSION a, a(1-a), a(1-a)² ……. WHERE ‘a’ IS WEIGHT ATTACHED TO MOST CURRENT OBSERVATION Slide 18: AND a(1-a), TO ONE PERIOD BACK OBSERVATION AND, a(1-a)² TO TWO PERIOD BACK OBSERVATION AND SO ON THE SUM OF ALL THESE WEIGHTS IS EQUAL TO 1 AND VALUE OF ‘a’ LIES BETWEEN 0 AND 1 Slide 19: WHEN WEIGHTS ARE DESIGNED IN THIS WAY, WEIGHTED SMOOTHING METHOD BECOMES EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING METHOD Slide 20: REGRESSION METHOD: -BIVARIATE -MULTIVARIATE Slide 21: IT INVOLVES FOUR STEPS: IDENTIFICATION OF VARIABLES WHICH INFLUENCE DEMAND FOR THE PRODUCT WHOSE FUNCTION IS UNDER ESTIMATION COLLECTION OF HISTORICAL DATA ON ALL RELEVANT VARIABLES CHOOSING AN APPROPRIATE FORM OF A FUNCTION ESTIMATION OF FUNCTION