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market description from Rakesh Jhunjhunwala

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Meeting with Students of IIT Mumbai11 Aug 2007Rakesh Jhunjhunwala : 

Meeting with Students of IIT Mumbai11 Aug 2007Rakesh Jhunjhunwala

AGENDA : 

AGENDA About Rakesh and RARE Enterprises Value Investing India and its opportunity Some thoughts for you…

OUR ETHOS : 

Prayer God’s Grace, Elder’s Blessings Aim To win all wars despite losing many a battle Motto Where the head is held high, and the mind is without fear . . . Logo - R^RE Enterprises Rare, Enterprises, Green, Compounding Baseline Insight, Intellect, Integrity OUR ETHOS

EVOLUTION : 

Early days (1984-89) Learning curve (1990-1994) Defining time (2001-2005) Aspiration (2005 - . . . .) EVOLUTION

EARLY DAYS (1984 -1989) : 

Humble beginning – Rs 5000 Initial hurdles Self-belief Inspiration – healthy influences No pain, no gain Initial trades Capital protection Tax compliance and efficiency EARLY DAYS (1984 -1989)

PARADIGM SHIFT (1990 -1994) : 

Inflexion point – Madhu Dandvate budget First market cycle experience – agony & ecstasy Shorting and pyramiding Prudent betting Ambitions cannot overshoot market opportunity Understanding the importance of liquidity PARADIGM SHIFT (1990 -1994)

LEARNING CURVE (1995 -2000) : 

Rudder-less period Introspection Importance of reading, experiencing and learning Participation in tech boom Private equity learning – the value of scale Value picks – PSU jackpot LEARNING CURVE (1995 -2000)

DEFINING TIME (2001 – 2005) : 

DEFINING TIME (2001 – 2005) Once in a lifetime opportunity – India and its equity markets Growth stories Concentrated and diversified portfolio Maturity Buy right, hold tight – exit in frenzies Meaningful stakes Value adding investor Organization building Resisting temptations

ASPIRATION: 2005 AND BEYOND : 

Institutionalization Perpetual view Other asset classes Other geographies Investor of choice Philanthropy De-leveraging Strategic thinker People, skill focused ASPIRATION: 2005 AND BEYOND

RAKESH AS AN INDIVIDUAL : 

RAKESH AS AN INDIVIDUAL Independent thinker Passion for equities. Measured risk taker A trader, an investor, a venture capitalist Not afraid to make mistakes, but affordable ones No religion, no emotion, no ego, no rules. But, means remain more important than the ends Accept with an open heart and mind that the only constant is change. The urge to learn is a journey, not a destination Magic of emotion-less leverage, with discipline Patience born out of conviction. Be greedy, but be long-term greedy – understanding the role of time His word is his bond, highest integrity Loves his independence

RARE ENTERPRISES TODAY : 

RARE ENTERPRISES TODAY

AGENDA : 

AGENDA About Rakesh and RARE Enterprises Value Investing India and its opportunity Some thoughts for you…

OUR INVESTMENT APPROACHWhat We Look For : 

Attractive, addressable external opportunity Sustainable competitive advantage Scalability + operating leverage Management quality + integrity EVA positive over investment horizon Valuation: Price – Value divergence OUR INVESTMENT APPROACHWhat We Look For

INVESTMENT BELIEF : 

INVESTMENT BELIEF

AGENDA : 

AGENDA About Rakesh and RARE Enterprises Value Investing India and its opportunity Some thoughts for you…

INDIA ON A STRONG GROWTH TRAJECTORY : 

INDIA ON A STRONG GROWTH TRAJECTORY Growth enablers Growth solidifiers & accelerators Growth and Indian stock markets “ India has a dynamism that has never been seen before” Economist, Oct 2005 “A moment comes, which comes but rarely in history, when we step out from the old to the new, when an age ends and when the soul of a nation, long suppressed, finds utterance.”

GROWTH ENABLERS : 

Democratic Tolerance Secular Educational base Populous Skilled People Welfare Savings Oriented Consensus Young working population Sub-continent 54% of population <25 years old Vast natural resources Vast domestic market Nuclear power Top 4 Middle class in the world Amongst largest economies Entrepreneurial class well developed Resilience (no boom-bust cycles) ECONOMICS CULTURAL POLITICAL DEMOGRAPHICS GEO-POLITICAL Judicial System Irrelevance of Geographies GROWTH ENABLERS GROWTH ENABLERS

INDIA ON A STRONG GROWTH TRAJECTORY : 

INDIA ON A STRONG GROWTH TRAJECTORY Growth enablers Growth solidifiers & accelerators Growth and Indian stock markets

GROWTH SOLIDIFIERS AND ACCELERATORS : 

GROWTH SOLIDIFIERS AND ACCELERATORS A democratic growth process rather than an imposed one; a biological evolution Resurrection of a dormant and vigorous entrepreneurial gene. India has rediscovered its confidence and can do spirit Strong improvement in India’s macroeconomic indicators, combined with a robust banking system Strong improvement in corporate performance, powered through productivity gains On-going reforms to have a multiplier effect Examples

INDIA ON A STRONG GROWTH TRAJECTORY : 

INDIA ON A STRONG GROWTH TRAJECTORY Growth enablers Growth solidifiers & accelerators Growth and Indian stock markets

INDIA HAS ALL INGREDIENTS THAT MARKETS VALUE : 

INDIA HAS ALL INGREDIENTS THAT MARKETS VALUE Efficient capital allocation Sustained Earnings expansion driven by growth and productivity 8%+ Real GDP growth + 4%+ Inflation = 12%+ Nominal GDP growth Corporates to grow faster than Unorganised sector Operating and Financial Leverage to kick-in Hence, Corporate earnings to grow at 18%+ Favourable framework for equity investing Rising savings, yet low equity ownership – Significant potential Corporate Governance Transparency Effective Regulation Electronic Trading Dematerialisation Tax Paradise for equity investing under the STT regime De-risked model. Good balance between domestic consumption and global outsourcing opportunities

THE INVESTOR PERSPECTIVE: LONG TERM : 

THE INVESTOR PERSPECTIVE: LONG TERM Source: Bloomberg

WHAT COULD GO WRONG : 

WHAT COULD GO WRONG Slowdown in US economic growth Global economy tanks Possible Will have some adverse implications for India in the short-run But will have favourable asset allocation outcome in the long-run Politicians mess up However, decreasing influence in causing damage India loses relative competitiveness Unlikely Real interest rates go up significantly Unlikely India’s growth and it’s equity returns can be delayed, not denied.

US: CHEAP CREDIT FUELS ECONOMIC GROWTH : 

US: CHEAP CREDIT FUELS ECONOMIC GROWTH Quest for higher returns: use of financial engg from regular mortgages  CDOs, CLOs Cheap credit Enable loans to customers with poor credit rating – 15% of all loans in 2006 , $ 1.2 Trillion Rising home prices Consumption boom Investment Boom GDP growth Low interest rates after dot com Collapse…from 4.5 to 1% in 8Q Demand for housing Poor housing credit shielded by innovative structures, rising home prices Low interest rates led to US Economy Debt surging to 340% of GDP from 280% of GDP in 2000 and 175% in 1980 … thereby fueling an extra ordinary consumption and investment boom Source: UBS

US: VICIOUS CYCLE OF GDP GROWTH : 

US: VICIOUS CYCLE OF GDP GROWTH Default by sub prime Increase in EMIs As interest rates reset upward Unsold inventories @ 15 yr high, 1.7 M homes Housing Prices decline Jobs lost Consumption Declines significantly Investment in housing declines GDP slows down Rise in credit standards to sub prime due to defaults US Residential Consumption and Investment accounts for 20% of World GDP and 60% of US GDP Inability to refinance

CONCLUSIONS: WE ARE IN A TOUGH PERIOD FOR EQUITIES : 

CONCLUSIONS: WE ARE IN A TOUGH PERIOD FOR EQUITIES US Economy has to slow down Aftermath of a 25 Yr bull market in the US will not be easy High degree of complacency as too much easy money has been made too quickly World equity markets are bound to get shaken Any onset of increased investor caution elevates risk premiums and, as a consequence, lowers asset values and promotes the liquidation of the debt that supported higher asset prices. This is the reason that history has not dealt kindly with the aftermath of protracted periods of low risk premiums. — Alan Greenspan, 26 August 2005

WORLD ECONOMY IMPLICATIONS : 

WORLD ECONOMY IMPLICATIONS Turmoil in debt markets Rising oil prices Rising interest rates Slowdown in overstretched US China slowdown? Global currency realignment Oil and other commodity prices to weaken Interest rates to soften Domestic consumption story Low external reliance India – the beneficiary HOWEVER, THE NEXT FEW MONTHS WILL BE TOUGH INDIA + WORLD SLOWDOWN India may benefit…but after an intermittent transition period.

SENSEX POSSIBILITIES : 

SENSEX POSSIBILITIES SENSEX VALUE = SENSEX EPS X SENSEX PE Base Sensex EPS of 700 in FY2007 EARNINGS PER

AGENDA : 

AGENDA About Rakesh and RARE Enterprises Value Investing & qualities of successful investors India and its opportunity Some thoughts for you…

AS YOU EMBARK ON PROMISING LIVES : 

AS YOU EMBARK ON PROMISING LIVES Whatever you can do or dream you can, begin it. Boldness has genius, power and magic in it. Do something you love The means are as important as the end Aspire, but never envy Be paranoid of success – never take it for granted. Realize success can be temporary and transient Build a fighting spirit – take the bad with the good When you see a horizon, it seems so distant. When you reach that horizon, you will realize how many more horizons are within reach

Slide 31: 

Thank You

INDIA UTILIZES CAPITAL MORE EFFICIENTLY : 

INDIA UTILIZES CAPITAL MORE EFFICIENTLY Avg. GDP Growth rate Domestic Investment as % of GDP FDI as % of GDP Total Investment as % of GDP Incremental capital output ratio China 10.3% 39% 4% 43% 4.2 India 7.8% 30% 0.8% 30.8% 3.95

GROWTH DESPITE CYNICISM : 

GROWTH DESPITE CYNICISM “India is the cradle of the human race, the birthplace of human speech, the mother of history, the grandmother of legend, and the great grandmother of tradition. Our most valuable and most instructive materials in the history of man are treasured up in India”. Mark Twain “Despite this; the skepticism of most Indians, who have inherited from the British a talent for cultivated cynicism, is most surprising” Chris Wood, CLSA Growth enablers Growth solidifiers & accelerators 9 -11 % future growth a reality Growth and Indian stock markets

INDIA's PEOPLE - ITS STRONGEST ASSET Based on IMD World Competitiveness Survey : 

INDIA's PEOPLE - ITS STRONGEST ASSET Based on IMD World Competitiveness Survey A large pool of skilled people... Note: Survey results: 1=low; 10 = high Source: IMD world competitiveness Yearbook 2003 ...with high end qualifications... ...and extremely cost efficient Availability of skilled labour, 2003 Availability of qualified engineers, 2003 Total compensation for manufacturing workers, 2002

INDIA's PEOPLE - ITS STRONGEST ASSET : 

INDIA's PEOPLE - ITS STRONGEST ASSET There are 3.22 Million Indians in America. 38% of Doctors in America are Indians. 12% of Scientists in America are Indians. 36% of NASA employees are Indians. 34% of MICROSOFT employees are Indians. 28% of IBM employees are Indians. 17% of INTEL employees are Indians. 13% of XEROX employees are Indians “This is the century of skill sets” – Peter Drucker “23% of the Global workforce addition over the next five years will be from India” - Economist

FAVOURABLE DEMOGRAPHICS WILL AID CONSUMPTION LED GROWTH : 

FAVOURABLE DEMOGRAPHICS WILL AID CONSUMPTION LED GROWTH

Slide 37: 

CONSUMPTION: EXPANDING MIDDLE CLASSIndia To Have 4th Largest Number Of House Holds Earning > US $5000 Number of households with income >US $5,000 p.a. Source: EIU Country Data

INDIA: ECONOMIC RESILIENCE Least Volatile Economic Growth : 

Maximum-Minimum GDP Growth Rate (1993-2005) INDIA: ECONOMIC RESILIENCE Least Volatile Economic Growth Source: EIU; World Bank; IMF; Literature review % GDP growth

IMPORTANCE OF A DEMOCRATIC GROWTH PROCESS : 

IMPORTANCE OF A DEMOCRATIC GROWTH PROCESS Importance of a democratic growth process Allows dissent and debate of multiple views. Over time the best views prevail and allow capital to be used in a fair and just manner. Without dissent, there is crony capitalism. Creates a culture, civic society more conducive to technology development Enables innovation & productivity driven growth which is more stable as it is built on competencies and skills Non democratic societies can have a period of fast growth, but can never achieve long periods of stable , sustainable growth Never have the opportunity to build the right cultures, enrich civil society, develop quality education, or promote the rule of law and globally competitive business Democracy makes for populism, pandering and delays. But it also makes for long-term stability Fareed Zakaria, Newsweek

INDIA’s GROWTH – A BIOLOGICAL EVOLUTION : 

INDIA’s GROWTH – A BIOLOGICAL EVOLUTION Change has come about by a due process of churn of opinions and counter-opinions. Change has not been thrust down India’s throat. A Free Press has enabled and encouraged public debate. India has gone through its experimentation with socialism, pseudo-capitalism, to reluctant capitalism and is on its way to unabashed capitalism Change has sustained Inspite of multiple coalition parties of different ideologies having access to power for varying periods of time None of India’s economic metrics are ‘controlled’ or unsustainable “India will never be a tiger; it is an elephant that has begun to lumber. But what the elephant loses in speed, it makes up in stamina” Gurcharan Das, author of India Unbound

GLOBAL OPINION LEADERS RECOGNIZE THE CHANGE : 

GLOBAL OPINION LEADERS RECOGNIZE THE CHANGE What is happening today is the birth of India as an independent society … colorful, open, vibrant and, above all, ready for change. India is diverging from its past, but also from most other countries in Asia. It is not a quiet, controlled, quasi-authoritarian country that is slowly opening up according to plans. It is a noisy democracy that has finally empowered its people economically. India’s growth is messy, chaotic and largely unplanned. It is not top-down but bottom-up. It is happening not because of the government, but largely despite it. Fareed Zakaria, Newsweek An economic litmus test is not whether a country can attract a lot of FDI but whether it has a business environment that nurtures entrepreneurship, supports healthy competition and is relatively free of heavy-handed political intervention. In this regard, India has done a better job than China Yasheng Huang, MIT

CONFIDENCE: INDIA INC. GOING GLOBAL : 

CONFIDENCE: INDIA INC. GOING GLOBAL Source: Literature Review Overseas Acquisitions by India Inc ($ US Million)

REFORMS TO HAVE A MULTIPLIER EFFECT : 

REFORMS TO HAVE A MULTIPLIER EFFECT Financial sector Infrastructure Development Telecom Tariff reduction Insurance Competition Bill Power VAT / Indirect taxes Capital Market Direct taxes Confluence of Reforms

IN GOOD MACROECONOMIC SHAPE : 

IN GOOD MACROECONOMIC SHAPE Interest rate on 5 yr G-sec paper Inflation (WPI) Exports ($ Bn) Forex reserves ($ Bn) Forex reserves as months of imports Currency appreciation Current a/c deficit (% of GDP) Fiscal deficit Source: Analyst reports, literature review 13.8% 8.2% 8.1% 4.8% 32 103 17 4.7 14 -8.6% - 1.5% -1.7% - 1.3% 4.2% 4.1% Indicator 1996 2006 158 Barring Fiscal Deficit

IMPRESSIVE TRANSFORMATION OF INDIA INC. : 

IMPRESSIVE TRANSFORMATION OF INDIA INC. The sustained improvement in RoE and the growth in profits has come despite significantly lower tariff protection, lower inflation and deferred tax accounting. Indian skills and Indian enterprise have now got a global level playing field, and a much superior platform than India Inc. has ever had before.

PRODUCTIVITY IMPROVEMENTS: ASSET TURNS : 

PRODUCTIVITY IMPROVEMENTS: ASSET TURNS

PRODUCTIVITY IMPROVEMENTS: MARGIN EXPANSION : 

PRODUCTIVITY IMPROVEMENTS: MARGIN EXPANSION

STRONG BALANCE SHEETS : 

STRONG BALANCE SHEETS

POTENTIAL TO ENHANCE EQUITY OWNERSHIP : 

POTENTIAL TO ENHANCE EQUITY OWNERSHIP Distribution of Financial Savings

SAVINGS EXPLOSION AHEAD : 

SAVINGS EXPLOSION AHEAD

EXAMPLES OF TRANSFORMATION : 

EXAMPLES OF TRANSFORMATION Deficit to surplus economy Airlines industry Mobile phones Increases in tax to GDP ratio Emergence of first generation entrepreneurs. Largest endowments by first generation entrepreneurs Changing attitudes – wealth/profit no longer a dirty word

FUND FLOW FOR EQUITY MARKETS : 

FUND FLOW FOR EQUITY MARKETS