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Premium member Presentation Transcript Project Evaluation Review Technique : Project Evaluation Review Technique Zameel Lukman(211078) Aswin Mohan(211088) Krishnachandran.V.N(211099) Nithin.P.L(211117) INTRODUCTION TO PERT : INTRODUCTION TO PERT This model was invented by Booz , Allen Hamilton, Inc. in 1958 mobile submarine-launched missile project. It may be defined as: A MANAGER’S TOOL: for defining a project and coordinating various operations involved in it. A DIRECTION: What must be done to successfully accomplish the objective of the project. A PROFILE : that aids the decision-maker, but does not make decision for him. A TECHNIQUE: that presents statistical information regarding the uncertainties about computation time of various activities associated with the project. PERT CONVENTIONS : PERT CONVENTIONS PERT chart will number its events sequentially Two consecutive events in a PERT chart are linked by activities The events are presented in a logical sequence and no activity can commence until its immediately preceding event is completed. PERT TERMINOLOGY : PERT TERMINOLOGY EVENT: is a state between the completion and start of preceding and succeeding activities. PREDECESSOR EVENT: an event (or events) at which an activity starts. SUCCESSOR EVENT: an event (or events)a by which an activity ends. ACTIVITY: is the broken portions or processes of a project for its completion. It consumes time, it requires resources. PERT Terminology conti… : PERT Terminology conti… Optimistic time (O): the minimum possible time required to accomplish a task, assuming everything proceeds better than is normally expected Pessimistic time (P): the maximum possible time required to accomplish a task, assuming everything goes wrong Most likely time (M): the best estimate of the time required to accomplish a task, assuming everything proceeds as normal. Slide 6: T = (O + 4M + P)/6 2 = ((P-O)/6)2 Critical Path: the longest possible continuous pathway taken from the initial event to the terminal event Slack: the slack of an event is a measure of the excess time and resources available in achieving this event PERT ANALYSIS ALGORITHM : PERT ANALYSIS ALGORITHM Step 1: Make a forward pass through the network as follows: For each of the activities, beginning at the START node, compute ES, EF Step 2: Make a backwards pass through the network LF,LS Calculate the slack time for each activity UNCERTAINTIES IN USE OF PERT : UNCERTAINTIES IN USE OF PERT The planner is faced with questions concerning how long the project will take and when specific activities may be performed Two approaches may be used for the assessment of duration Deterministic approach Non-deterministic approach CASE STUDY : CASE STUDY Analysis and Implementation of PERT in the Building of an Aircraft : A Aircraft Equipment Received B Final Fuselage drawing completed C Aircraft Tested and comminssioned D Tail Assembly Received E Subcontract for tail asemble awarded F Procurment of Engine inatiated G Program go ahead H Wings from subcontractor received I Plans and specifications completed J Fuselage - Engine Assembly completed K Mabufacture of Fuselage completed Slide 11: OPTIMISTIC MOSTLIKELY PESSIMISTIC Activity Predec. Time (WEEK) Time (WEEK) Time (WEEK) A -- 4 6 8 B -- 1 4.5 5 C A 3 3 3 D A 4 5 6 E A 0.5 1 1.5 F B,C 3 4 5 G B,C 1 1.5 5 H E,F 5 6 7 I E,F 2 5 8 J D,H 2.5 2.75 4.5 K G,I 3 5 7 NETWORK DIAGRAM : NETWORK DIAGRAM Slide 13: Activity Expected Time and Variances t = (O + 4M + P)/6 s2 = ((P-O)/6)2 Activity Expected Time Variance A 6 4/9 B 4 4/9 C 3 0 D 5 1/9 E 1 1/36 F 4 1/9 G 2 4/9 H 6 1/9 I 5 1 J 3 1/9 K 5 4/9 Slide 14: Earliest/Latest Times Activity ES EF LS LF Slack A 0 6 0 6 0 *critical B 0 4 5 9 5 C 6 9 6 9 0 * D 6 11 15 20 9 E 6 7 12 13 6 F 9 13 9 13 0 * G 9 11 16 18 7 H 13 19 14 20 1 I 13 18 13 18 0 * J 19 22 20 23 1 K 18 23 18 23 0 * The estimated project completion time is = 23. Slide 15: Variance for the project is the summation of Variance of Critical Activity 2 = 2A + 2C + 2F + 2I + 2K =0.444+0+0.111+1.000+0.444 =1.999 2 Standard Deviation () = 1.414 : Z = Expected Duration – Calculated Duration Standard Deviation Z25 = 25-23/1.414 = 1.414 Z27 = 27-23/1.414 = 2.829 Now from the table of Standard Normal Distribution For Z = 1.414, P = 92.116 The probability that the project will completed in 25 days is 92.116% For Z = 2.829, P = 99.760 The probability that the project will completed in 25 days is 99.760% Slide 17: THANK YOU You do not have the permission to view this presentation. In order to view it, please contact the author of the presentation.