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Premium member Presentation Transcript 2012 Indian economy: perspectives: Joseph Anbarasu, Head and Associate Professor in Commerce, BISHOP HEBER COLLEGE, Tiruchirappalli 2012 Indian economy: perspectivesObjectives: Objectives To make a general account of national statistics To identify the effects of Eurozone financial crisis on Indian economy To understand the importance of human resource as an edge over other factors To evaluate the present scenarioINDIA BY THE NUMBERS 2012: INDIA BY THE NUMBERS 2012 Population: 1.22 billion Yearly increase: 18 million Major group: 50% - 0 – 25 years More than 1.53 billion people by the end of 2030. Average life expectancy: 68.6 years Average fertility rate: 2.7 children per woman Male literacy rate at 75.96% and female at 54.28 % LR 74.04 % in 2011 from 65.38% in 2001 About 72.2% of the population lives in some 638,000 villages and the rest 27.8% in about 5,480 towns and urban agglomerations Homes without electricity: 25 per centINDIA BY THE NUMBERS 2012: INDIA BY THE NUMBERS 2012 In 2011, World Bank stated, 32.7% of the below the international poverty line of US$ 1.25 per day (PPP) while 68.7% live on less than US$ 2 per day . Internet users: 105 million today and 150 million in Dec, 2012 Mobile phone subscribers: 960.90 million, Telephone landlines: 38.76 million GDP: 1847.98 billion US dollars in 2011 Unemployment rate: 3.8 per cent in 2010/11 fiscal year. Inflation: 6.87 per cent in July of 2012 India has overtaken China in exports growth rate recording an increase of 16.1% in 2011 Officially recognized languages: 18EU crisis: Impact on India - bad: EU crisis: Impact on India - bad Eliminated the benefits of a weak rupee, which is down 20% in a year, to Indian exporters No more Cheap money from Europe If it (the Eurozone collapses) happens, the implications will be very strong on Indian Economy.“ Foreign investment is withering badly too.Impact of Crisis on Indian Economy - bad: Impact of Crisis on Indian Economy - bad Country is feeling some pain of financial crisis Tourism, textiles and the crucial information technology sectors are all suffering as demand from western countries dries up. Investment on Infrastructure is the remedy – Dr. M. SinghImpact of Crisis on Indian Economy - Good: Impact of Crisis on Indian Economy - Good The country's banks seem stable compared to their counterparts in richer countries. Bollywood is thriving as the stuff of dreams continues to sell even in hard times. That people in India love to save money Most Indians typically spend their entire lives saving for a house even if it takes them 20 years to do that. Seldom do they take loans [just] to finance their lifestyle. That domestic demand doesn't slumpImpact of Crisis on Indian Economy - Good: Impact of Crisis on Indian Economy - Good "“A lot of what India produces is for domestic consumption given the large home-based market. So it kind of hedges the slow down.”- Murtaza Haider , Ryerson University Indians use their savings in troubled times as a kind of informal social safety net . It fuels consumer demand and can ease some of the worst effects of the downturn. Enemy is overspending. Typical Indian attitude is the scapegoat.Impact of Crisis on Indian Economy - Ugly: Impact of Crisis on Indian Economy - Ugly India reported a current account deficit equivalent to 21.7 Billion USD in the first quarter of 2012. India Current Account averaged -1.1700 Billion USD reaching an all time high of 7.3600 Billion USD in March of 2004 and a record low of -21.7000 Billion USD in March of 2012.Indian Economy – Ugly side: Indian Economy – Ugly side Rural poverty leads horrible wave of suicides by indebted farmers Nos. 250,000 . Two farmers a day killing themselves, for the past 15 years . India lives in the modern world with 14th-century infrastructure. India has name-sake roads, dungeon airports, and stinking seaports, even sanitation projects are subject to cutbacks.Indian Polity – Ugly side: Indian Polity – Ugly side 2G - illegally undercharging mobile telephony companies for frequency allocation licenses. Commonwealth: large scale misappropriation of money Coal Mines Corruption (KN) – Illegal allotment and Kick Backs Adarsh – Violation of Allotment of Flats (MH) S-band spectrum by Antrix to Devas – no bidding SCAM LOSS Action 2G US$33.56 billion Underway CW Rs.70,000 crores Taken Mines Outsmarts all scams Underway Adarsh Value not known Underway S-band Rs.200000 crores UnderwaySome Findings – For your introspection: Some Findings – For your introspection India’s Real GDP is to register an average growth of around 9.2% during FY11-FY20, on the back of robust private consumption demand, increased infrastructure spending, substantial growth in investment activity and strong growth in services sector.India GDP to Claim over US in this Decade: India GDP to Claim over US in this DecadeSome Findings – For your introspection: Some Findings – For your introspection India and China have over US in terms of college graduates in science and math is overwhelming. Michael's graph estimated the trend that from 1973 to 2001 the US share was diminishing as India and China were growing rapidly. Not every one of those graduates according to the McKinsey Global Institute is up to par with the standards that we have in the U.S. (10% in China and 25% in India) but that is clearly changing.Some findings - Human Development Index: Some findings - Human Development Index The Human Development Report for 2007-08 has been released by the UNDP and there are few surprises. # India’s human development index (HDI) of 0.619 puts it just below Equatorial Guinea (0.642) and Solomon Islands (0.602). # India’s life expectancy of 63.7 years is sandwiched between Comoros (64.1) and Mauritania (63.2), while Malawi and Rwanda have higher adult literacy than India. India was ranked 126 by the HDR 2006, a rung higher than the previous year’s 127. This year, it continues to be dubbed a country at medium level of human development. Rank Countries Amount # 1 Norway: 0.963 # 10 US 0.944 = 11 Japan: 0.943 # 15 UK 0.939 # 16 France: 0.938 # 25 Singapore: 0.907 # 61 Malaysia: 0.796 # 111 Indonesia: 0.697 # 128 India: 0.602 # 136 Pakistan: 0.527 # 137 Nepal: 0.526Some findings - The human development index gives a more complete picture than income: Some findings - The human development index gives a more complete picture than incomeWhere are we?: Where are we? The human development index trends tell an important story in that aspect. The mid-1970s almost all regions have been progressively increasing their HDI score . East Asia and South Asia have accelerated progress since 1990. Central and Eastern Europe and the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), following a catastrophic decline in the first half of the 1990s, has also recovered to the level before the reversal. The major exception is sub-Saharan Africa. MEDIUM HUMAN DEVELOPMENT - 2011 Rank Country Rate 134 India 0.547 135 Ghana 0.541 136 Equatorial Guinea 0.537 137 Congo 0.533 138 Lao People’s Democratic Republic 0.524 139 Cambodia 0.523 140 Swaziland 0.522 141 Bhutan 0.522 LOW HUMAN DEVELOPMENT 142 Solomon Islands 0.510 143 Kenya 0.509 144 São Tomé and Príncipe 0.509 145 Pakistan 0.504 146 Bangladesh 0.500Where are we?: Where are we? The human development index trends tell an important story in that aspect. The mid-1970s almost all regions have been progressively increasing their HDI score . East Asia and South Asia have accelerated progress since 1990. Central and Eastern Europe and the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), following a catastrophic decline in the first half of the 1990s, has also recovered to the level before the reversal. The major exception is sub-Saharan Africa.Thank You: Perception based on some facts Thank You You do not have the permission to view this presentation. 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