why small market changes can cause large price swings

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A new supply and demand model is described that can explain large price swings when only small apparent changes occur in supply and demand.

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Why Small Market Changes Can Cause Large Price Swings:

Why Small Market Changes Can Cause Large Price Swings www.Portfolio n Planning.com – Jim Lear

Motivation:

Motivation Oil has seen volatile price swings in the last few years Speculators have been blamed Presidential Working Group has been formed “to identify and address potential cases of fraud and manipulation” No evidence of fraud or manipulation Developed a model for stock price volatility that is applicable www.Portfolio n Planning.com – Jim Lear

Traditional View Of Supply and Demand:

Traditional View Of Supply and Demand www.Portfolio n Planning.com -- Jim Lear

Traditional View Of Supply and Demand:

Traditional View Of Supply and Demand www.Portfolio n Planning.com -- Jim Lear

Traditional View Of Supply and Demand:

Traditional View Of Supply and Demand www.Portfolio n Planning.com -- Jim Lear

Improved View of Supply:

Improved View of Supply www.Portfolio n Planning.com -- Jim Lear

Improved View of Supply:

Improved View of Supply Total Supply www.Portfolio n Planning.com -- Jim Lear

Improved View of Demand:

Improved View of Demand Total Demand www.Portfolio n Planning.com -- Jim Lear

Improved View of Supply and Demand:

Improved View of Supply and Demand Change in Total Demand Moderate Change in Production and Prices www.Portfolio n Planning.com -- Jim Lear

Improved View of Supply and Demand:

Improved View of Supply and Demand Tiny Change in Total Demand Tiny Change in Production Enormous Change in Price www.Portfolio n Planning.com -- Jim Lear

Chinese Growth in Oil Consumption:

Chinese Growth in Oil Consumption www.Portfolio n Planning.com -- Jim Lear Source: BP Statistical Review Of World Energy, 2010

Conclusion:

Conclusion Normal market conditions can cause very large price swings with almost negligible production or consumption changes Vast increases in Chinese oil consumption are likely the reason for significant price increases Significant weakening in the dollar’s purchasing power can also affect Prices are not being manipulated by speculators These conditions can occur in any market and they might appear as market bubbles Jim.Lear@portfolionplanning.com www.Portfolio n Planning.com – Jim Lear